Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Edition 3.0 - Steve Pearce signs for 2/$12.5

[FearTheBeard]

What.

He's a bench player who has never played a full season. I think you're being overly selective in looking at these stats.

lol get a clue. Guy put up 2.0 WAR in 85 games. Even if he does that, this is a great signing. He's always been a great hitter and at very worst will be a solid platoon vs lefties. (Although he hits righties well too)

 

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

At this point, the #1 target has to be Fowler
I think the EE ship has sailed and I don't see where Bautista fits on this team

 

[Ruski]

At this point, the #1 target has to be Fowler
I think the EE ship has sailed and I don't see where Bautista fits on this team

Are we guaranteed draft picks if both EE and Bautista sign elsewhere?

I heard some rumblings that with CBA negotiations, the compensation might change. Although, logic would suggest they can't make those changes retroactive.

 

[ShaneFalco]

At this point, the #1 target has to be Fowler
I think the EE ship has sailed and I don't see where Bautista fits on this team

Yeah I don't see it anymore either
Funny I haven't heard anything about him though
I guess once EE and Fowler are off the market, Bruce, JB etc will be next

 

[Discoverer]

Are we guaranteed draft picks if both EE and Bautista sign elsewhere?

I heard some rumblings that with CBA negotiations, the compensation might change. Although, logic would suggest they can't make those changes retroactive.

They'll get picks, yeah. The compensation system comes into effect next year.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Are there seriously people who think like this?

I guess I am overestimating the Jays fanbase. In reality there are probably people looking at his stat line right now saying, why does this guy get 12.5 million, he only hit 13 homeruns last year and 15 the year before that.

 

[BlueForever]

The thing with JB is that he will bounce back! I have this gut feel! He was incredibly unlucky with his injuries this year. We all know he loves to talk and I'm okay with that because he's a damn good player and can back it up.

I'd welcome him back with open arms.

I welcome him back at 3yrs/50 million. Put him at 1B and the 3 hole.

Then go out and get Fowler for OF and leadoff.


OR

Sign EE at 4yrs/84 million, go out and trade for Bruce/Granderson

Those should be our two options.

This keeps 2 first rounders to build prospects and complements our lineup either way.

More balanced (lefties vs righties), still have the power.

Option #1 is better though for defence.

 

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

Are we guaranteed draft picks if both EE and Bautista sign elsewhere?

I heard some rumblings that with CBA negotiations, the compensation might change. Although, logic would suggest they can't make those changes retroactive.

yes we get draft picks for both

 

[Sokil]

you heard me.

Last 3yrs wrc+:

Donaldson 146
Pearce 131
Tulowitzki 119
Travis 119
Martin 117
Morales 108

Last 2yrs wrc+

Donaldson 154
Morales 120
Travis 119
Pearce 113
Martin 106
Tulowitzki 101

Last year wrc+

Donaldson 155
Pearce 136
Morales 110
Travis 109
Tulowitzki 102
Martin 99

Steamer projection for this year

Donaldson 137
Morales 113
Pearce 112
Tulowitzki 106
Martin 97
Travis 96

You're still comparing a bench player to guys who play full seasons. It's selective cherrypicking of stats.

Last 3yrs wrc+:

Donaldson 146 (2,106 PA)
Pearce 131 (1,010 PA)
Tulowitzki 119 (1,453)
Travis 119 (hasn't even played 3 years)
Martin 117 (1,502 PA)
Morales 108 (1,658 PA)

He hasn't played, and won't play enough for this projection to mean squat. He's a decent bench player but should never be in the same sentence as Jash Danaldson.

lol get a clue. Guy put up 2.0 WAR in 85 games. Even if he does that, this is a great signing. He's always been a great hitter and at very worst will be a solid platoon vs lefties. (Although he hits righties well too)

Get a clue, you never even heard his name before this morning.

 

[zeke]

You're still comparing a bench player to guys who play full seasons. It's selective cherrypicking of stats.

Actually he's been an everyday player those years, but missed lots of time to injury. He wasn't being used selectively when healthy.

And his health is why he came so cheap, and that's the kind of risk factor I like to gamble on.

 

[Cor]

Trade Smoak
Sign Moreland and Fowler


Plz

 

[WhatTheDuck]

You're still comparing a bench player to guys who play full seasons. It's selective cherrypicking of stats.



He hasn't played, and won't play enough for this projection to mean squat. He's a decent bench player but should never be in the same sentence as Jash Danaldson.



Get a clue, you never even heard his name before this morning.

Your stance on this is completely irrelevant. Even if injuries were to hold Pearce to under 400 PA, he's still projected to produce more value than our other 1B/LF options would produce over 500+ PA.

Just because injuries have held him to fewer games, does not mean Pearce doesn't produce like a starter when healthy.

 

[Discoverer]

You're still comparing a bench player to guys who play full seasons. It's selective cherrypicking of stats.



He hasn't played, and won't play enough for this projection to mean squat. He's a decent bench player but should never be in the same sentence as Jash Danaldson.



Get a clue, you never even heard his name before this morning.

Speaking of "get a clue"... he's not a bench player. He's a full-time player who has missed at least a month each of the last three years with injuries.

 

[Sokil]

Actually he's been an everyday player those years, but missed lots of time to injury. He wasn't being used selectively when healthy.

Where are you seeing his injury history?

And his health is why he came so cheap, and that's the kind of risk factor I like to gamble on.

I agree, buying low is always a good move.

 

[Sokil]

Just because injuries have held him to fewer games, does not mean Pearce doesn't produce like a starter when healthy.

He produces how he produces (unless youre implying he always plays injured for some reason). He's mediocre his entire career save for last year's portion with Tampa and 2014 in Baltimore. You're hoping he "produces like a starter" but only in his good stints and not his underwhelming career, or 2015, or (insert other excuse)

Speaking of "get a clue"... he's not a bench player. He's a full-time player who has missed at least a month each of the last three years with injuries.

A full time player who has never in his career played full time. Gotcha.

 

[Discoverer]

Where are you seeing his injury history?

You can just look up his game log if you want. He plays every day, misses a month, comes back and plays every day, then misses a couple weeks... it's not ideal, and it definitely kept the cost low, but that's not a part-time player.

 

[Eyedea]

How does Bruce hold any value as a player who hasn't been worth a single fWAR in the last three years and is set to earn $13 million?

And that trade actually doesn't seem that bad, but not because of Bruce.

Because he has actually improved his contact and BIP rates in recent years. Elite power, average plate discipline, not a dominant-pull hitter. You're not exactly buying him for his defence, though I have a hard time believing he is as big of a negative as he is perceived (roughly a win lost due to his arm?), especially since his range saw noticeable improvements based on UZR compared to his previous two years. In fact, he posted positive numbers with the Mets, which kinda shows that we can't just label him as a "historically awful" defensive fielder based on 838 innings in RF. He's very likely not 130-140 wRC+ levels of goodness, but he still put up a 124 wRC+ against RHP last season despite struggling for most of his time with the Mets. He's the good side of the platoon, and I optimistically expect better defence from him in the OF than Saunders.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I actually think Jose is starting to make more and more sense for us. I don't want him in the OF as much as anyone else does, but with Pearce here, I can see him and Jose splitting OF/1B duties. You would preferably just want Jose at 1B fulltime, but with improved flexibility it makes more sense now than before I think.

I don't think it's overly likely still but you're not shoehorning Pearce into LF full time signing Jose like you might with EE. And he comes cheaper. I doubt we'd pay both Jose and Fowler because we still need to upgrade the pen.

Dump Smoak, trade Upton, sign Jose(3x15), sign Fowler(4x17), sign Boone Logan(2x6), sign Derek Holland(1x5)

Fowler
Donaldson
Jose
Morales
Pearce
Tulo
Travis
Martin
Pillar

Bench: AJJ, Pompey, Carrera, Barney

Sanchez, Stroman, Estrada, Happ, Liriano

Osuna, Grilli, Logan, Holland, Barnes, Biagini, Loup

Cost: 171.75 million. Probably too high but I don't care, dream big

 

[zeke]

Jay Bruce has been a replacement player 3yrs running, and costs $13m next year.

He's a guy you give an ST invite to, not someone you trade value for.

 

[Discoverer]

A full time player who has never in his career played full time. Gotcha.

Also not a full-time player: Troy Tulowitzki.

 

[BlueForever]

Trade Smoak
Sign Moreland and Fowler


Plz

How about trade Smoak and sign Fowler and EE.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

He produces how he produces (unless youre implying he always plays injured for some reason). He's mediocre his entire career save for last year's portion with Tampa and 2014 in Baltimore. You're hoping he "produces like a starter" but only in his good stints and not his underwhelming career, or 2015, or (insert other excuse)



A full time player who has never in his career played full time. Gotcha.

Yes, and he's produced a lot of wins over the past three seasons.

 

[theaub]

I mean its not an unfair criticism.

 

[Eyedea]

Jay Bruce has been a replacement player 3yrs running, and costs $13m next year.

He's a guy you give an ST invite to, not someone you trade value for.

This is where using WAR as an end-all statistic actually hurts player evaluations.

 

[Sokil]

Also not a full-time player: Troy Tulowitzki.

Average games per year (minus rookie seasons):

Pearce: 60
Tulowitzki: 120

What.