Buffalo Bills Off Season Begins - The Draft, Free Agency, and Cap Management, Oh My.

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WeDislikeEich

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Good! Honestly, I hope they hype the s*** out of the Jets! And overlook the Bills as much as possible. I don’t see the Bills being the media darling super bowl favorites again this offseason anyway, but I’ll be glad if they don’t get any media hype.

The hype puts more pressure/expectations on the Jets and gets other teams keyed up to play them (like we saw with the Bills this past season and with the patriots in the past, etc). They already instantly upped expectations trading for Rodgers. Let’s see how the team and coaches handle it.

Also, I think the Bills play better when they are underdogs or not in the spotlight as much. I think it pisses them off and they play with a bit more edge/fire.
 

Zman5778

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I agree about the mental part, not so much about the gap in physical gifts.

Quick twitch with no instincts = Edmunds. He moved exceptionally fast at the snap--and often filled the wrong hole or over-ran the play. He couldn't shed blocks well either.

Campbell's first step may not be as fast as Edmunds but his eyes, processing and instincts are better, IMO. A lot of film I watched of Campbell shows him a beat slow off the snap--but then he's like a heat seeking missile as he reads, diagnoses and attacks, usually making the proper play.

It's like he has a computer in his head programmed with "how to play MLB," whereas Edmunds program was "how to run, jump and arrive a half second late."

I think you're WAY underselling Edmunds here. Like, big time. Maybe his half-second late thing was Edmunds at the start of his career, but it certainly isn't and hasn't been the case for 2+ years. You don't get the contract he did if you're "a half second late" all the time. Edmunds' issue remains his ability to shed blocks.

The way you describe Campbell.....he's a Luke Kuechly clone. And he's decidedly NOT that. He's Kuechly-lite.
 

Dirty Dog

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What’s everyone’s least favorite pick at 27? I’m going with linebacker for me.

I’d hope they’d realize the difference between a great offense and a great defense after watching what happens in the playoffs every year. But they haven’t. If it was WR…yes I would. At Edge rusher…no I don’t. You’re going to end up in a shootout with Mahomes or Burrow anyway. And defenses just don’t matter as much against that level of QB. Philly had a great D…then they ran into Mahomes. Shootout.

Strongly agree with this philosophy on defense in the current NFL.
 
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Ace

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What’s everyone’s least favorite pick at 27? I’m going with linebacker for me.



Strongly agree with this philosophy on defense in the current NFL.
The thing that drives me nuts is that we have a defensive coach. one who we heard for years get the most out of these low drafted corners and ranks top 5 almost every year through injuries and rookies. Ok. When do we stop feeding that side of the ball every major asset we have then? It’s unreal at this point. They haven’t put a rookie first round contract on the offensive side of the ball since Allen got here. We’ve taken THREE day two running backs…so we can not run the ball and two of them are already gone…but no wide receiver drafted on day one or two under Beane? Did the Zay Jones pick by McDermott scar them that badly?

I can’t tell you we’d have won a championship if we flipped which side of the ball we invested in. But I can tell you it wouldn’t have hurt.
 

buffa dud

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The thing that drives me nuts is that we have a defensive coach. one who we heard for years get the most out of these low drafted corners and ranks top 5 almost every year through injuries and rookies. Ok. When do we stop feeding that side of the ball every major asset we have then? It’s unreal at this point. They haven’t put a rookie first round contract on the offensive side of the ball since Allen got here. We’ve taken THREE day two running backs…so we can not run the ball and two of them are already gone…but no wide receiver drafted on day one or two under Beane? Did the Zay Jones pick by McDermott scar them that badly?

I can’t tell you we’d have won a championship if we flipped which side of the ball we invested in. But I can tell you it wouldn’t have hurt.
I think the bigger misstep, as you pointed out, was investing the resources they did in running-backs. Had they invested the same resources in wide-receivers, we're not looking at signing the ghosts of John Brown and Cole Beasley to play regular snaps in the post-season. So, I'm fine with pouring firsts and/or seconds into the defense. Just as long as Beane goes hard after a stud wide-receiver when it's clear Diggs is no longer a top-5 WR anymore.
 

Husko

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The thing that drives me nuts is that we have a defensive coach. one who we heard for years get the most out of these low drafted corners and ranks top 5 almost every year through injuries and rookies. Ok. When do we stop feeding that side of the ball every major asset we have then? It’s unreal at this point. They haven’t put a rookie first round contract on the offensive side of the ball since Allen got here. We’ve taken THREE day two running backs…so we can not run the ball and two of them are already gone…but no wide receiver drafted on day one or two under Beane? Did the Zay Jones pick by McDermott scar them that badly?

I can’t tell you we’d have won a championship if we flipped which side of the ball we invested in. But I can tell you it wouldn’t have hurt.
The sad thing is I actually have a lot of faith that McDermott could get good enough results on defense without significant investment. Bills have never had a bad defense under him and I don't think he had one in Carolina either. I'm not saying strip the thing down to the studs, but it would be great if we could see him take a low investment defense and get top 10ish production out of it through coaching.
 

Dirty Dog

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The thing that drives me nuts is that we have a defensive coach. one who we heard for years get the most out of these low drafted corners and ranks top 5 almost every year through injuries and rookies. Ok. When do we stop feeding that side of the ball every major asset we have then? It’s unreal at this point. They haven’t put a rookie first round contract on the offensive side of the ball since Allen got here. We’ve taken THREE day two running backs…so we can not run the ball and two of them are already gone…but no wide receiver drafted on day one or two under Beane? Did the Zay Jones pick by McDermott scar them that badly?

I can’t tell you we’d have won a championship if we flipped which side of the ball we invested in. But I can tell you it wouldn’t have hurt.

Maybe they learned their lesson. hopefully?

Their off-season this year has been offense focused!
 

Sound_n_Fury

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Elam is a bit of a special case because of the scheme fit - or his lack of.

Also remember that one of the guys Elam was competing with was Benford - another rookie.
IIRC, Elam was coming from a primarily press/man coverage scheme and had to learn zone on the fly. Benford already had experience in zone, so he was ahead schematic-wise from day one.

As the year went on, Elam became more comfortable in zone and saw the field more. I think that's how the Bills envisioned him progressing. Benford was a pleasant surprise, I suspect, in his ability to step up against a much higher level of competition so early in his career.
 
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Husko

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IIRC, Elam was coming from a primarily press/man coverage scheme and had to learn zone on the fly. Benford already had experience in zone, so he was ahead schematic-wise from day one.

As the year went on, Elam became more comfortable in zone and saw the field more. I think that's how the Bills envisioned him progressing. Benford was a pleasant surprise, I suspect, in his ability to step up against a much higher level of competition so early in his career.
Eh, not really. His snap count percent by week:

1: 45%
2: 66%
3: 100%
4: 99%
5: 100%
6: 76%
8: 58%
9: 43%
12: 30%
13: healthy inactive
14: 0%
15: 47%
16: 48%
18: 43%
 
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Fezzy126

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I’d hope they’d realize the difference between a great offense and a great defense after watching what happens in the playoffs every year. But they haven’t. If it was WR…yes I would. At Edge rusher…no I don’t. You’re going to end up in a shootout with Mahomes or Burrow anyway. And defenses just don’t matter as much against that level of QB. Philly had a great D…then they ran into Mahomes. Shootout.

We keep sending Allen out to win shootouts without enough bullets.

No, you won't... This is one of the most overused yet incorrect statements about the NFL - I think special thanks goes to the younger members of the Buffalo media for not understanding the reality of complimentary football and thinking that the NFL just boils down to weapons and skill position players.

There's no such thing as one dimensional Super Bowl contenders, both sides of the ball have to be great, full stop. During the playoffs, KC held each of their opponents to 20 points and forced multiple turnovers defensively in a couple of one score games, just to get through to the Super Bowl. Could Mahomes have won those games in a shootout? Absolutely, but it's far from a guarantee, he only had to score more than 20 points. I mean, FFS, look at the 2nd half drive chart from the KC-Jax game:

1682468503345.png


Hardly a shootout. The vast majority of games are not back and forth shootouts, it's an ebb and flow and having an elite QB gives you a cheat code at the end of the game.

While the Super Bowl this year actually was a shootout, does KC win without the defensive score and the big punt return? Again, maybe, but we'll never know.

You don't need to be an elite defense, you need to be great, and more than anything you need to not play like this:



Lucky for us, both our offense and defense are actually elite.

Our offense returns everyone except our starting RB and our weakest link, Saffold at LG, which we already upgraded. The other weak points at RT and WR should both improve with healthier seasons. Our starting TE experienced a massively tragic life event. Despite all this, we had the #2 ranked passing offense in DVOA with a WR corps of Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, and Shakir. Even if we only draft a day 3 WR, I refuse to believe we'll be taking much of a step back, if any.

Our defense is aging and our two biggest playmakers have experienced ACL injuries the past two years (White & Von). Our freak starting MLB left via FA. Our safeties are starting to age out. There's just way more question marks on the defense.

Lastly, I know a lot of WR talk comes from that Bengals game. I remember stumbling across this random twitter dude after the game:



I just re-watched the All-22 from that game earlier today and couldn't agree more. Allen had a shit day - his WRs were open. Beyond that, Dorsey did him no favors in his playcalling either.
 
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Sabreality

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Syracuse RB Sean Tucker held a personal pro day yesterday after finally being cleared medically. Bills, Giants, Jets & Cardinals attended. 29 bench reps, wouldve been most at combine for RB, 38" vertical wouldve placed 3rd, and he obvs has track speed. Wonder if he'd be a 5th round fit as the 4th RB.
 

Zman5778

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Lastly, I know a lot of WR talk comes from that Bengals game. I remember stumbling across this random twitter dude after the game:



I just re-watched the All-22 from that game earlier today and couldn't agree more. Allen had a shit day - his WRs were open. Beyond that, Dorsey did him no favors in his playcalling either.


I feel like "Allen looking for chunk plays" very nicely sums up our offensive struggles the 2nd half of last season.
 

SundherDome

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I feel like "Allen looking for chunk plays" very nicely sums up our offensive struggles the 2nd half of last season.
They honestly just looked exhausted, mentally, physically, emotionally. They dug deep against NE and were running on fumes against Miami who battered them around. They dealt with a lot of shit and it honestly looked like they were just hoping to catch teams slacking and then put everything forward if they made the super bowl.
 
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