Buffalo Bills Off Season Begins - The Draft, Free Agency, and Cap Management, Oh My.

[Dirty Dog]

Again, is this a true statement? Last year they had two WR visits and drafted a WR. They had 8 TE visits and didn't draft one.

You’re arguing against something no one is saying. No one is saying that they draft from the position they have the most visits from.

People are saying they have drafted in the early rounds from positions they had a significant amount of visits with. And that their first rounder has been someone they had a visit with. These seem to be 100 percent true statements and you havent said anything to the contrary.

Using the 5th round on a WR isn’t what we’re talking about. Nor is the fact they didn’t draft a TE last year even though they had a lot of draft visits.

I think there’s just a miscommunication/misreading going on

The way I see it, right now we have a solid #1 in Diggs, a fine 2/3 in Davis, a good 3/4 in Harty, and then Sherfield who I have no clue what his role is but I'm glad we have good depth. Shakir is TBD but hopefully he can develop into a good slot option eventually.

Ideally we add another guy in that 2/3 range, be it a full time slot player, someone to push Gabe to the slot on some snaps, or whatever else. That would round out the group nicely, in my opinion. I'm not saying Gabe is the problem, but I do think Gabe playing 100% of snaps and exclusively outside / fly route receiver is a problem. Get him back to his 2021 role and we'll be in business.

That’s the goal for sure. My concern is if any of the WRs available will step in and fill that need. It’s a notoriously unpredictable position as far as rookie production goes

 

[Husko]

Folks, I'm beginning to put together a first post for our draft GDT with things like our big board, draft trackers, links, and whatnot. I'll update as we go with bios on the Bills players. But is there any link or resource you specifically like that you'd like me to include in the post? Just trying to make it as useful as possible. Here's what our GDT page looked like last year as an example: Bills off-season part 5: Draft GDT

 

[Jim Bob]

Last year they "reportedly" only met with 2 CBs and 8 TEs. They drafted two CBs and no TEs... They also met with 5 guards and drafted none. The correlation between predraft meetings and drafted players is always made after the draft, we almost never have the full list predraft.

View attachment 697046

The other thing is that the Bills have been good at keeping top 30 visits of guys they like under wraps.

For instance, they had Elam in for a top 30 visit and that only got out a day or two prior to the draft.

I bet they used all 30 of those visits. Yet, we only have reports of around two dozen of them.

 

[Ace]

I do not think Harty, Sherfield, or Shakir would be playing a “full position higher than they should be”. At all.

Your problem appears to be with Davis which so fine. But the rest seems like hyperbole

They’ve openly called Harty a number 4. Who is number 3? There isn’t one. Davis isn’t a 2. Dominant games as a 3…dud as a 2. Harty isn’t a 3. Shakir has a hilariously low target rate and they ran back to Brown and Beasely. He’s not only jot a 4…he may not be a 5.

That’s everyone but Diggs…a full slot higher than they should be.

Now add a 2 and look how good it looks.

This isn’t off ball LB or rotational DLineman. Passing and scoring is how they win. It was neglected last off-season and is the period most period important period thing they have to fix right now…and into the future.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Would you guys do it?

 

[Dirty Dog]

Would you guys do it?

If they eat his salary. Which they’d have to to make the deal go through

 

[Husko]

Would you guys do it?

That potential trade has seemingly been discussed everywhere under the sun. I'd absolutely do it, though I don't think it's actually a 3rd round value. That trade back is barely worth a 7th according to more modern charts: NFL Draft Trade Value Chart | Over the Cap

 

[Jim Bob]

If they eat his salary. Which they’d have to to make the deal go through

I doubt Arizona is willing to eat salary.

That potential trade has seemingly been discussed everywhere under the sun. I'd absolutely do it, though I don't think it's actually a 3rd round value. That trade back is barely worth a 7th according to more modern charts: NFL Draft Trade Value Chart | Over the Cap

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

This chart has the difference between 27 & 34 as 94OV.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

If they eat his salary. Which they’d have to to make the deal go through

This is why Hopkins (or any big name) talk is futile.

They'd need to trade Oliver & then perform other gymnastics.

The net benefit just won't be worth the pain.

 

[Jim Bob]

This is why Hopkins (or any big name) talk is futile.

They'd need to trade Oliver & then perform other gymnastics.

The net benefit just won't be worth the pain.

I think the DHop thing plays out like the OBJ one.

It's great in theory, but the cap space isn't there to make it happen.

 

[Zman5778]

Folks, I'm beginning to put together a first post for our draft GDT with things like our big board, draft trackers, links, and whatnot. I'll update as we go with bios on the Bills players. But is there any link or resource you specifically like that you'd like me to include in the post? Just trying to make it as useful as possible. Here's what our GDT page looked like last year as an example: Bills off-season part 5: Draft GDT

Ping me when you get it posted/done and I'll pin it -- and then unpin/lock this one.

 

[Dubi Doo]

I think the DHop thing plays out like the OBJ one.

It's great in theory, but the cap space isn't there to make it happen.

'You fall in love with a guy in fall, then confuse yourself by the spring'

Sounds like my love life prior to my wife!

Edit: except switch guy for girl in the quote.

 

[Zman5778]

Would you guys do it?

I do that trade all day, as long as Arizona eats some salary in the process.

 

[SundherDome]

There is a article with a hypothetical trade for Oliver to the Lions, we get 55 and 159. If we can't get him signed by Friday...I'd do it, I think

 

[Jim Bob]

I do that trade all day, as long as Arizona eats some salary in the process.

There have been reports that one of the holdups on the DHop front is that Arizona is unwilling to eat salary to make it happen on top of teams not wanting to give Arizona the trade return they are looking to get.

It is lying season, so who knows...

 

[Husko]

There is a article with a hypothetical trade for Oliver to the Lions, we get 55 and 159. If we can't get him signed by Friday...I'd do it, I think

If they can't get a deal done with Oliver I'd absolutely take this deal. Much more than I'd expect we could get.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

There is a article with a hypothetical trade for Oliver to the Lions, we get 55 and 159. If we can't get him signed by Friday...I'd do it, I think

I'd do that deal without hesitation. And i still wouldn't trade for Hopkins after making it.

I figure that Oliver would be worth a late day 2 pick AT BEST. More likely early day 3.

Good chance you get a reasonable plug/play DT with 55OV... Without having to worry about the position for another 4 years.

 

[Husko]

This is why Hopkins (or any big name) talk is futile.

They'd need to trade Oliver & then perform other gymnastics.

The net benefit just won't be worth the pain.

I don't think it would be that hard. Under the trade Oliver scenario:

-Bills currently have about 4 million in cap space
-Difference between Oliver cap out and Hopkins cap in is about 8 million
-4 million of 2023 cap could be opened up just by converting 6 million of base salary to bonus and adding a void year.
-Cap hits: 2023: 15.45; 2024: 16.92; 2025: 2 million dead

 

[Sound_n_Fury]

Would you guys do it?

I'd want another pick from Arizona as well. We'd be doing them a big favor by letting them dump that contract.

 

[Zman5778]

There is a article with a hypothetical trade for Oliver to the Lions, we get 55 and 159. If we can't get him signed by Friday...I'd do it, I think

So if we do that AND the DHop trade....

Oliver and 27 for DHop, 37,55 and 159.

That would give us 37,55,59 and 91 as day 2 picks. Gotta think we could get a real solid DT to replace Oliver on Day 2.

 

[Husko]

So if we do that AND the DHop trade....

Oliver and 27 for DHop, 37,55 and 159.

That would give us 37,55,59 and 91 as day 2 picks. Gotta think we could get a real solid DT to replace Oliver on Day 2.

Yep, I'd sign up for that all day long.

 

[Sound_n_Fury]

So if we do that AND the DHop trade....

Oliver and 27 for DHop, 37,55 and 159.

That would give us 37,55,59 and 91 as day 2 picks. Gotta think we could get a real solid DT to replace Oliver on Day 2.

34, not 37. And those two second round picks would be exactly how they could restock DT (Gervon Dexter, Keeanu Benton, even Mazi Smith if he somehow falls) and another position of need.

Boy, that would be excellent.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I don't think it would be that hard. Under the trade Oliver scenario:

-Bills currently have about 4 million in cap space
-Difference between Oliver cap out and Hopkins cap in is about 8 million
-4 million of 2023 cap could be opened up just by converting 6 million of base salary to bonus and adding a void year.
-Cap hits: 2023: 15.45; 2024: 16.92; 2025: 2 million dead

Ugh. Say NO to void years.

In that scenario though I'd also look at trading Davis since there's no way he's still around for 2024. But I'd take my chances with a fully fit Davis over a declining Hopkins all day.

 

[Husko]

Ugh. Say NO to void years.

In that scenario though I'd also look at trading Davis since there's no way he's still around for 2024. But I'd take my chances with a fully fit Davis over a declining Hopkins all day.

A 2 million void year in 2025 isn't really a huge deal, especially with the cap expected to go up 30-50 million by then.

 

[LaPlante94]

So if we do that AND the DHop trade....

Oliver and 27 for DHop, 37,55 and 159.

That would give us 37,55,59 and 91 as day 2 picks. Gotta think we could get a real solid DT to replace Oliver on Day 2.

Yeah I think you gotta do that if available. Morse has a bad concussion history with like 6 in the last 8 years so taking Schmitz or Tippmann with one of those 1st 2 picks would be a must imo. Probably lead to a possible Morse buyout eventually which would free up some cap if I'm not mistaken.