Buffalo Bills Off Season Begins - The Draft, Free Agency, and Cap Management, Oh My.

[Husko]

I call this one "all the offense belongs to us"

Alright, since we already got a good number of votes, going to end the penultimate poll early and get our final one up. It'll run until tomorrow night at midnight. Deonte Banks was our sole winner. Vote for as many as you want in this final poll: 2023 HF Bills Big Board 46

1. Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama (50%)
2. Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia (67%)
3. Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern (63%)
4. Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State (50%)
5. Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech (38%)
6. Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon (33%)
7. Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia (40%)
8. Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas (25%)
8. Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia (25%)
8. Quinten Johnston, WR, TCU (25%)
11. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (33%)
11. Brian Branch, S, Alabama (33%)
13. Darnell Wright, RT, Tennessee (40%)
14. Jordan Addison, WR, USC (44%)
15. TrentON Simpson, LB, Clemson (40%)
16. Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson (50%)
17. Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma (43%)
18. Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame (83%)
19. Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa (67%)
20. Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College (57%)
21. Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (100%)
22. Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia (29%)
22. Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson (29%)
24. Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee (50%)
25. Cody Mauch, OL, North Dakota State (33%)
25. O'Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida (33%)
27. John Schmitz, C, Minnesota (33%)
27. Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan (33%)
29. Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State (43%)
30. Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina (50%)
31. Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah (40%)

32. Blake Freeland, OT, BYU (33%)
32. Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois (33%)
34. Steve Avila, G, TCU (50%)
34. Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse (50%)
34. Dawand Jones, OL, Ohio State (50%)
37. Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt (50%)
38. Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa (25%)
38. Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin (25%)
40. Luke Wylper, C, Ohio State (50%)
40. Joe Tipman, C, Wisconsin (50%)
42. Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee (40%)
42. Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa (40%)
42. Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State (40%)
42. Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State (40%)
46. Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland (40%)

2023 HF Bills Big Board 46

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

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Reminder to vote in the final poll!

2023 HF Bills Big Board 46

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

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[kirby11]

I’d like to think that I’d be saying the same thing: asking how we manage to keep whiffing on the same position over and over again.

The retention of Washington despite a clear lack of results and the insistence on drafting non-bendy power guys at DE and asking them to massively change their body composition/play style strike me as the biggest d-line problems. From a talent perspective, Epenesa and Basham aren't amazing, but IMO, they've also been put behind the eight ball a bit with what they've been asked to do. I also wonder if the waves of rotation along the DL make it more difficult for them to find their footing and get in a groove.

 

[buffalowing88]

The retention of Washington despite a clear lack of results and the insistence on drafting non-bendy power guys at DE and asking them to massively change their body composition/play style strike me as the biggest d-line problems. From a talent perspective, Epenesa and Basham aren't amazing, but IMO, they've also been put behind the eight ball a bit with what they've been asked to do. I also wonder if the waves of rotation along the DL make it more difficult for them to find their footing and get in a groove.

I think it begins with Washington. That he still has a job is beyond me. If he continues to coach here and these guys all struggle again then it becomes a Brandon Beane problem and I would assume he doesn't want that.

Either Beane is just shitty at drafting defensive linemen (Carolina was very hit or miss in this regard before he came here) or Washington sucks at coaching them up.

Epenesa is frustrating because you see the glimpses every year, but they're normally in meaningless situations/games.

I have absolutely no faith in Basham as a pass rusher at this point..but then he came on late last season and seemed to be able to handle double coverage better than any of these picks.

Rousseau is a mental midget until he shows otherwise. Entirely capable of taking over a game but has zero ability to "turn it up" in tough situations. I'm fascinated by the guy but he just seems to get into a mental midget type of persona where if he's shut down on one drive, that's it for the game.

Oliver is what he is. An undersized tackle who can't fill a gap and is streaky at rushing the passer. Some other team really should give that man a big contract next year because he's the biggest whiff of the recent drafts.

Anyone else weirdly happy with Daquon Jones? At least he did his job. Same with Phillips when he played.

Shaq Lawson is that option that will excel if we are 6-10 next year and he collects three sacks in the season closer. Other than that, he's a bum.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

No, you won't... This is one of the most overused yet incorrect statements about the NFL - I think special thanks goes to the younger members of the Buffalo media for not understanding the reality of complimentary football and thinking that the NFL just boils down to weapons and skill position players.

There's no such thing as one dimensional Super Bowl contenders, both sides of the ball have to be great, full stop. During the playoffs, KC held each of their opponents to 20 points and forced multiple turnovers defensively in a couple of one score games, just to get through to the Super Bowl. Could Mahomes have won those games in a shootout? Absolutely, but it's far from a guarantee, he only had to score more than 20 points. I mean, FFS, look at the 2nd half drive chart from the KC-Jax game:

View attachment 696604

Hardly a shootout. The vast majority of games are not back and forth shootouts, it's an ebb and flow and having an elite QB gives you a cheat code at the end of the game.

While the Super Bowl this year actually was a shootout, does KC win without the defensive score and the big punt return? Again, maybe, but we'll never know.

You don't need to be an elite defense, you need to be great, and more than anything you need to not play like this:



Lucky for us, both our offense and defense are actually elite.

Our offense returns everyone except our starting RB and our weakest link, Saffold at LG, which we already upgraded. The other weak points at RT and WR should both improve with healthier seasons. Our starting TE experienced a massively tragic life event. Despite all this, we had the #2 ranked passing offense in DVOA with a WR corps of Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, and Shakir. Even if we only draft a day 3 WR, I refuse to believe we'll be taking much of a step back, if any.

Our defense is aging and our two biggest playmakers have experienced ACL injuries the past two years (White & Von). Our freak starting MLB left via FA. Our safeties are starting to age out. There's just way more question marks on the defense.

Lastly, I know a lot of WR talk comes from that Bengals game. I remember stumbling across this random twitter dude after the game:



I just re-watched the All-22 from that game earlier today and couldn't agree more. Allen had a shit day - his WRs were open. Beyond that, Dorsey did him no favors in his playcalling either.

This won't get enough likes because it destroys the popular narrative.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Forgot him. I’m good carrying 7

The over-valuation many of you guys have put on the position lately has becone mene worthy.

Diggs is one of the very best in the league & he's staying around weather he likes it or not.

Davis is fine as a #2. His performance was affected by injury last season & even then he was nowhere near as ineffective as he's made out to be by some of you.

Harty was signed to the type of contract that suggests he'll be a regular contributor as opposed to a gadget player / depth piece.

Shakir showed promise last year. I'm constantly told that Beane drafts players with the intention of filling holes in their D+1 season... Well - he's a possible example of that actually happening.

Sherfield's signing is generally seen as depth... Yet he played 58 % of Miami's snaps last year (easily WR3) in what was generally seen as a high powered offence.

They literally need one more depth piece - ideally a guy with size or something different to what's there already.

I'm making a maximum of one addition & I'm not wasting high value assets or cap flexibility to do so.

 

[Dubi Doo]

I feel like "Allen looking for chunk plays" very nicely sums up our offensive struggles the 2nd half of last season.

It killed us. Defenses figured it out, and he/Dorsey never adjusted. That first game against the Rams shows what Allen can be if he simplifies his game and takes what the defense gives him. He's as good as it gets when he does that.

Rodgers apparently went through some similar growing pains before his back-to-back MVP seasons. I don't recall it, but it was brought up by GB fans in some threads I've read. Allen can absolutely do it, and we'd be an even better team b/c of it, which is enticing as hell.

His UCL injury healing up should help, too, but there's definitely a mental issue as well.

 

[truthbluth]

It killed us. Defenses figured it out, and he/Dorsey never adjusted. That first game against the Rams shows what Allen can be if he simplifies his game and takes what the defense gives him. He's as good as it gets when he does that.

Rodgers apparently went through some similar growing pains before his back-to-back MVP seasons. I don't recall it, but it was brought up by GB fans in some threads I've read. Allen can absolutely do it, and we'd be an even better team b/c of it, which is enticing as hell.

His UCL injury healing up should help, too, but there's definitely a mental issue, too.

Allen got bored. Thats the best explanation I can see. He's an exciting player, and he likes it crazy. Starting with the 2nd half against GB, teams decided to all play Allen the same way. Cover deep, spy the QB, leave the underneath under covered. Josh couldn't help himself, so he started to force those chunk plays. But again, it was still enough to win 13 games and lose 3 by a combined total of 8 points. So there really weren't any consequences for this play until Cincy. Also Dorsey sucked. I won't say Dorsey sucks, since a 1st time playcaller should get a bit of a leash, but he has one year to turn it around, imo.

*whispers* The Bills need another corner.

 

[Husko]

The retention of Washington despite a clear lack of results and the insistence on drafting non-bendy power guys at DE and asking them to massively change their body composition/play style strike me as the biggest d-line problems. From a talent perspective, Epenesa and Basham aren't amazing, but IMO, they've also been put behind the eight ball a bit with what they've been asked to do. I also wonder if the waves of rotation along the DL make it more difficult for them to find their footing and get in a groove.

Wholeheartedly agree. I don't understand the "Draft power DEs and make them cut" strategy at all.

Allen got bored. Thats the best explanation I can see. He's an exciting player, and he likes it crazy. Starting with the 2nd half against GB, teams decided to all play Allen the same way. Cover deep, spy the QB, leave the underneath under covered. Josh couldn't help himself, so he started to force those chunk plays. But again, it was still enough to win 13 games and lose 3 by a combined total of 8 points. So there really weren't any consequences for this play until Cincy. Also Dorsey sucked. I won't say Dorsey sucks, since a 1st time playcaller should get a bit of a leash, but he has one year to turn it around, imo.

*whispers* The Bills need another corner.

Do they? They have four boundary corners they feel good about plus some depth. I'm fine with taking another secondary guy on day 3 if the value is there, but until moving Benford to safety is more than just a theoretical idea I think it's one position they're very set at.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

@truthbluth

I completely disagree that another corner is needed. But i do like Julius Brents as a fit & he'd be decent value at 59 or lower.

I also see moving on from White as one of the most obvious avenues of creating cap space from 2024 onwards...

I'm not entertaining more than the thought of it though.

 

[Husko]

The over-valuation many of you guys have put on the position lately has becone mene worthy.

Diggs is one of the very best in the league & he's staying around weather he likes it or not.

Davis is fine as a #2. His performance was affected by injury last season & even then he was nowhere near as ineffective as he's made out to be by some of you.

Harty was signed to the type of contract that suggests he'll be a regular contributor as opposed to a gadget player / depth piece.

Shakir showed promise last year. I'm constantly told that Beane drafts players with the intention of filling holes in their D+1 season... Well - he's a possible example of that actually happening.

Sherfield's signing is generally seen as depth... Yet he played 58 % of Miami's snaps last year (easily WR3) in what was generally seen as a high powered offence.

They literally need one more depth piece - ideally a guy with size or something different to what's there already.

I'm making a maximum of one addition & I'm not wasting high value assets or cap flexibility to do so.

Did he? I'm open to him improving, but he was incredibly inefficient and unproductive when he was on the field. Really, really really low yards per route run and receptions per route run,

 

[truthbluth]

@truthbluth

I completely disagree that another corner is needed. But i do like Julius Brents as a fit & he'd be decent value at 59 or lower.

I also see moving on from White as one of the most obvious avenues of creating cap space from 2024 onwards...

I'm not entertaining more than the thought of it though.

Do they? They have four boundary corners they feel good about plus some depth. I'm fine with taking another secondary guy on day 3 if the value is there, but until moving Benford to safety is more than just a theoretical idea I think it's one position they're very set at.

Should have been more specific, they need a slot corner for depth. TJ is crucial to the defense and there isn't anybody behind him. I'd be down with a slot corner as high as the 4th round.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Did he? I'm open to him improving, but he was incredibly inefficient and unproductive when he was on the field. Really, really really low yards per route run and receptions per route run,

He wasn't exactly used sparingly. So of course he's not going to put up gaudy numbers. And are we saying that it's impossible for a player to improve both ability & familiarity after just one season?

It would be interesting to see where D+1 Shakir sits among the receivers available in this year's class. My prediction would be much higher than many of you might either realise, or give him credit for....

Can you critique anything else in my post?

 

[Husko]

He wasn't exactly used sparingly. So of course he's not going to put up gaudy numbers. And are we saying that it's impossible for a player to improve both ability & familiarity after just one season?

It would be interesting to see where D+1 Shakir sits among the receivers available in this year's class. My prediction would be much higher than many of you might either realise, or give him credit for....

Can you critique anything else in my post?

Would you rather I call your post memable?

You said Shakir showed promise; I disagree. For the amount he was on the field he did almost nothing. He could absolutely improve, as I said.

Beane said they view Harty in the #4 role. The question is who is the #3? Given the number of WRs they brought in for visits, I expect it to be a fairly high draft pick (by the end of the season, after the usual rookie benching). Or if the value isn’t there, they have the depth to not force it. I see that as a good thing.

 

[Husko]

Should have been more specific, they need a slot corner for depth. TJ is crucial to the defense and there isn't anybody behind him. I'd be down with a slot corner as high as the 4th round.

That’s supposed to be Neal, right? Much to my disgruntlement we continue to pay him high end backup money to fill that role.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Should have been more specific, they need a slot corner for depth. TJ is crucial to the defense and there isn't anybody behind him. I'd be down with a slot corner as high as the 4th round.

Doesn’t that safety we picked up from the rams have a lot of success playing slot?

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Would you rather I call your post memable?

You said Shakir showed promise; I disagree. For the amount he was on the field he did almost nothing. He could absolutely improve, as I said.

Beane said they view Harty in the #4 role. The question is who is the #3? Given the number of WRs they brought in for visits, I expect it to be a fairly high draft pick (by the end of the season, after the usual rookie benching). Or if the value isn’t there, they have the depth to not force it. I see that as a good thing.

IIRC Beane referred to him as a 'three or four' assuming we're thinking of the same presser.

I know they have interviewed a number of receivers. They have done so during previous years.

I certainly think it's possible they take a WR in R1 - that isn't my arguement. But it would be a dumb decision to do so.

Then agsin - I instantly hated many of their previous high picks (Epenesa/Rousseau/Basham/so on) while others loved them at the time... So what do i know that they don't?

 

[Fezzy126]

This won't get enough likes because it destroys the popular narrative.

Growing up with the k-gun, the 49ers run, and the Cowboys, I was always obsessed with the concept of triplets - an elite QB + RB + WR - I was certain that this was the absolute winning formula. But then I watched the 2002 Michigan State and 2009 Oklahoma Sooners and it forever changed my outlook on the sport of football. By college football standards, those two teams were loaded at the skill positions, but fell flat hard because their offensive lines were subpar, and in MSU's case their defense couldn't stop anyone.

The NFL is a different beast, and an elite QB can absolutely elevate average o-line play, but he can also elevate average skill position play as well, perhaps even more so.

So in my opinion, it all boils down to my point from above, we should be trying to be great EVERYWHERE, not openly ignoring position groups because "they can be coached up" or "Mahomes is going to score 40 points so why even try to stop him". This just isn't what happens in the sport.

 

[buffa dud]

Doesn’t that safety we picked up from the rams have a lot of success playing slot?

That has to be the football equivalent of taking your mom to the prom, because you couldn't get a date.

 

[Dirty Dog]

That has to be the football equivalent of taking your mom to the prom, because you couldn't get a date.

Meh. I think he graded out highly there until last year when that team was a tire fire.

 

[Selanne00008]

Allen got bored. Thats the best explanation I can see. He's an exciting player, and he likes it crazy. Starting with the 2nd half against GB, teams decided to all play Allen the same way. Cover deep, spy the QB, leave the underneath under covered. Josh couldn't help himself, so he started to force those chunk plays. But again, it was still enough to win 13 games and lose 3 by a combined total of 8 points. So there really weren't any consequences for this play until Cincy. Also Dorsey sucked. I won't say Dorsey sucks, since a 1st time playcaller should get a bit of a leash, but he has one year to turn it around, imo.

*whispers* The Bills need another corner.

Sounds like Josh need a dose of Bill B humble pie. Remember like 5 years ago there was film of Bill B ripping Tom Brady in a meeting. Like wtf are you doing airing it our 35 yards down field 1 on 1 with a safety lurking. Catch % there is gonna be 18%. Look at Edelmen, wide TF open for an 11 yard gain and a first down. Take it EVERY time.

It's like Brad Pitt in Moneyball. They're gonna bunt? And give us an out? Pick it up, and throw it to first! Don't be a hero and go to 2nd with the throw.

 

[Der Jaeger]

The over-valuation many of you guys have put on the position lately has becone mene worthy.

Diggs is one of the very best in the league & he's staying around weather he likes it or not.

Davis is fine as a #2. His performance was affected by injury last season & even then he was nowhere near as ineffective as he's made out to be by some of you.

Harty was signed to the type of contract that suggests he'll be a regular contributor as opposed to a gadget player / depth piece.

Shakir showed promise last year. I'm constantly told that Beane drafts players with the intention of filling holes in their D+1 season... Well - he's a possible example of that actually happening.

Sherfield's signing is generally seen as depth... Yet he played 58 % of Miami's snaps last year (easily WR3) in what was generally seen as a high powered offence.

They literally need one more depth piece - ideally a guy with size or something different to what's there already.

I'm making a maximum of one addition & I'm not wasting high value assets or cap flexibility to do so.

You're lumping me into the group that wants Allen to throw 80 times a game to 5 pro bowl receivers. That's obviously an overexaggeration, but you get my point. I've been advocating for 12 personnel for a while, and hoping Beane drafts Darnell Washington. So there's got to be more there than just over-valuation of the position.

I'd probably ask why a poster who advocated those actions would roster 7 receivers.

- Diggs is a legit #1 receiver. He's locked in long term and there are no issues.
- In my scenario, Hopkins is added. But he's in Buffalo for 2 years. Like Von Miller, it's a play to get the Bills over the hump and into the Super Bowl.
- Davis is on the last year of his deal. With Diggs and Hopkins, I don't see him as a likely re-signing.
- Harty is a slot receiver strictly. He is also only signed for 2 years.
- Shakir shows promise and I've been one of his biggest advocates, comparing him to Diggs pretty favorably.

So, assuming the Bills keep 7.

2023: Diggs, Davis, and Hopkins get most of the reps. Harty and Shakir are worked in. Perry gets some reps. Iovasis is a game day inactive most of the season as he's developed.

2024: Diggs, Hopkins, and either Perry or Shakir are getting the most reps. Harty is still a situational slot receiver. Iovasis is active but a special teamer.

2026: Diggs, Perry, Shakir, and Iovasis are the receivers.

It's just simply planning. Adding a receiver in the 3rd and 5th rounds of a draft hardly constitutes position over-valuation.

 

[Dirty Dog]

You're lumping me into the group that wants Allen to throw 80 times a game to 5 pro bowl receivers. That's obviously an overexaggeration, but you get my point. I've been advocating for 12 personnel for a while, and hoping Beane drafts Darnell Washington. So there's got to be more there than just over-valuation of the position.

I'd probably ask why a poster who advocated those actions would roster 7 receivers.

- Diggs is a legit #1 receiver. He's locked in long term and there are no issues.
- In my scenario, Hopkins is added. But he's in Buffalo for 2 years. Like Von Miller, it's a play to get the Bills over the hump and into the Super Bowl.
- Davis is on the last year of his deal. With Diggs and Hopkins, I don't see him as a likely re-signing.
- Harty is a slot receiver strictly. He is also only signed for 2 years.
- Shakir shows promise and I've been one of his biggest advocates, comparing him to Diggs pretty favorably.

So, assuming the Bills keep 7.

2023: Diggs, Davis, and Hopkins get most of the reps. Harty and Shakir are worked in. Perry gets some reps. Iovasis is a game day inactive most of the season as he's developed.

2024: Diggs, Hopkins, and either Perry or Shakir are getting the most reps. Harty is still a situational slot receiver. Iovasis is active but a special teamer.

2026: Diggs, Perry, Shakir, and Iovasis are the receivers.

It's just simply planning. Adding a receiver in the 3rd and 5th rounds of a draft hardly constitutes position over-valuation.

Harty has played extremely well on the outside. I think of him as way closer to a John brown replacement than a McKenzie replacement. But he is versatile and can play all over—but limiting him to the slot seems like a mistake. Let Davis/Shakir/Sherfield fill the slot on your scenario!

 

[Jim Bob]

I wonder who the next player that Von is hyping to the Bills after DHop is off the market like OBJ?

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Jim Bob]

2023 NFL Draft Prospect Visits Tracked by Team

walterfootball.com

Some interesting tidbits from this.

1) There are no visits for Jack Campbell with any team.
2) Here are the players with multiple visits with the Bills:

Player	Position	PRI	COM	PRO	VIR	WOR	LOC	SUM
Jordan Addison^, Wide Receiver, USC (COM, PRO, PRI)	WR	1​	1​	1​				3​
Nathaniel Dell^, Wide Receiver, Houston (PRI, WOR)	WR	1​				1​		2​
Zay Flowers^, Wide Receiver, Boston College (COM, PRI)	WR	1​	1​					2​
Justin Marshall^, Wide Receiver, Buffalo (WOR, LOC)	WR					1​	1​	2​
Bijan Robinson^, Running Back, Texas (COM, PRO)	RB		1​	1​				2​
Luke Schoonmaker^, Tight End, Michigan (COM, PRI)	TE	1​	1​					2​
O'Cyrus Torrence^, Offensive Guard, Florida (PRI, PRO)	IOL	1​		1​				2​
Darnell Washington^, Tight End, Georgia (COM, PRI)	TE	1​	1​					2​
Byron Young^, Defensive End, Tennessee (COM, PRI)	EDGE	1​	1​					2​

3) Here is how the visits have been used by position: