Buffalo Bills Off Season Begins - The Draft, Free Agency, and Cap Management, Oh My.

[Rowley Birkin]

Buscaglia said an interesting bit about this on his podcast today. Basically the LB they take at 27 if they did take one wouldn’t be an Edmunds replacement right away anyway. Edmunds had a first round grade and they moved up to get him. They’d be getting a 2nd round graded guy who would compete with a guy they took on day 2 last year who already has a year in the system. It’s not as easy as draft and play at LB.

Campbell is as close to a plug/play Edmunds replacement as you can realistically get.

Bernard.... Isn't.

 

[Husko]

Alright, since we already got a good number of votes, going to end the penultimate poll early and get our final one up. It'll run until tomorrow night at midnight. Deonte Banks was our sole winner. Vote for as many as you want in this final poll: 2023 HF Bills Big Board 46

1. Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama (50%)
2. Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia (67%)
3. Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern (63%)
4. Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State (50%)
5. Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech (38%)
6. Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon (33%)
7. Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia (40%)
8. Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas (25%)
8. Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia (25%)
8. Quinten Johnston, WR, TCU (25%)
11. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (33%)
11. Brian Branch, S, Alabama (33%)
13. Darnell Wright, RT, Tennessee (40%)
14. Jordan Addison, WR, USC (44%)
15. TrentON Simpson, LB, Clemson (40%)
16. Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson (50%)
17. Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma (43%)
18. Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame (83%)
19. Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa (67%)
20. Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College (57%)
21. Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (100%)
22. Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia (29%)
22. Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson (29%)
24. Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee (50%)
25. Cody Mauch, OL, North Dakota State (33%)
25. O'Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida (33%)
27. John Schmitz, C, Minnesota (33%)
27. Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan (33%)
29. Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State (43%)
30. Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina (50%)
31. Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah (40%)

32. Blake Freeland, OT, BYU (33%)
32. Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois (33%)
34. Steve Avila, G, TCU (50%)
34. Matthew Bergeron, OT, Syracuse (50%)
34. Dawand Jones, OL, Ohio State (50%)
37. Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt (50%)
38. Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa (25%)
38. Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin (25%)
40. Luke Wylper, C, Ohio State (50%)
40. Joe Tipman, C, Wisconsin (50%)
42. Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee (40%)
42. Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa (40%)
42. Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State (40%)
42. Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State (40%)
46. Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland (40%)

2023 HF Bills Big Board 46

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

forms.gle

 

[Dubi Doo]

Interesting....

 

[Fezzy126]

Campbell is as close to a plug/play Edmunds replacement as you can realistically get.

Bernard.... Isn't.

I'm quietly starting to wonder if we trade up for Campbell. Outside of arm length, Campbell is just as physically gifted as Edmunds while being more productive:

 

[Zman5778]

Campbell is as close to a plug/play Edmunds replacement as you can realistically get.

Bernard.... Isn't.

While I do agree with the idea of this.............McDermott has shown a disturbingly high degree of reluctance to use rookies unless absolutely needed. Hell, even when it was blatantly obvious that Elam had overtaken Jackson at CB.....Elam still only got 50% of the reps at CB2 at points. And how long was it before they realized that Cook was our best option at RB?

So even if we do take Campbell in the first round........I expect to see a LOT of Klein/Dodson/Bernard, especially in the early season.

 

[Husko]

I'm quietly starting to wonder if we trade up for Campbell. Outside of arm length, Campbell is just as physically gifted as Edmunds while being more productive:

View attachment 696506

Eh. He tested well, but Campbell doesn't play with that kind of explosion at all. He's not a quick twitch athlete, which is fine, but it shows up on tape for sure. There's a reason Edmunds was a consensus top 20 pick and Campbell it mocked as low as the bottom of the second round.

I really like Campbell, don't get me wrong, and I think he's actually much more developed than Edmunds was mentally when he was drafted, but he's not in the same ball park in terms of physical gifts.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

While I do agree with the idea of this.............McDermott has shown a disturbingly high degree of reluctance to use rookies unless absolutely needed. Hell, even when it was blatantly obvious that Elam had overtaken Jackson at CB.....Elam still only got 50% of the reps at CB2 at points. And how long was it before they realized that Cook was our best option at RB?

So even if we do take Campbell in the first round........I expect to see a LOT of Klein/Dodson/Bernard, especially in the early season.

Again... He doesn't have the luxury of doing that now Allen is off his rookie contract.

When Beane doesn't have the resources to give him a deep roster - he'll simply have to rely on rookies more.

It was for different reasons - but he had no problem relying on the likes of White, Milano, Dawkins, Zay Jones, Edmunds, Knox, Singletary earlier in his tenure.

 

[Zman5778]

Again... He doesn't have the luxury of doing that now Allen is off his rookie contract.

When Beane doesn't have the resources to give him a deep roster - he'll simply have to rely on rookies more.

It was for different reasons - but he had no problem relying on the likes of White, Milano, Dawkins, Zay Jones, Edmunds, Knox, Singletary earlier in his tenure.

To the bolded -- he relied on them because the express mission of the Bills at that time was to play the kids so that they'd develop into what we see now. That we stumbled into the playoffs as early as we did is a testament of McDermott's coaching.

But as we've become more and more competitive....and the goals have changed to being a Super Bowl contender....he's morphing into a guy that relies on his vets more than kids.

We'll see, but I certainly don't have the conviction you do. It's REAL easy for me to see McDermott playing Dodson/Klein/Bernard over Campbell this year.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think I'd do this if I were Beane (acknowledging that there's 31 other teams and a lot in play).

27. Trade this pick to Arizona for Hopkins and 34. Package something in the 2024 draft if Arizona won't make the base trade. Hopkins is a possession receiver at this point, but he's as good of a possession receiver in the league. I don't think there's anyone other than Jefferson who can make the type of contested catches he can make. Allen needs this type of receiver.

34. Darnell Washington, TE Georgia. This pick is a transformative pick for the offense, much like when Belichick decided to move away from the WR-based, high octane offense and transitioned to 12 personnel. Washington is a scheme changer, and he's got more upside than most picks in this draft. The Bills get a lot harder to play defense against.

59. I'd phone up Atlanta and see if they're interested in swapping 59 for 75 and 113. Or the Pats for 76, 117, and 192. The Pats are typically traders so let's go with that deal.

76. Nick Herbig, LB Wisconsin. I think Herbig is another player with loads of upside. He's not a MLB now but I think he's got the athleticism to be a player in that spot. He won't be plug and play like Campbell, and he's not an elite mover like Sanders or Simpson. For a spot that doesn't necessarily require an elite player, Herbig could be a good fit.

91. AT Perry, WR Wake Forest. Total projection pick based on athletic ability. He's not been challenged as an X receiver who gets pressed a lot, but his speed and size make for the type of X receiver that projects well to the NFL. Replaces Gave Davis next season.

117. Ricky Stromberg, C Arkansas. Poor-man's Creed Humphries. He's the type of player who won't need a ton of developmental time, and he's not a smaller technician. Great athleticism.

130. Andre Carter, DE Army. Projection pick. He didn't test well, but the Army environment for seniors isn't focused on NFL preparation. I'm not surprised he tested poorly. He needs an NFL weight room and training table. Reminds me of a young Jason Taylor with his length.

137. Andrei Iosivas, WR Princeton. Tall and lanky X receiver. Fast and tall and can take the top off a defense. Skinny and doesn't play well through contact, but hasn't real had to either. Another stash and develop type of player. With Gabe Davis in a contract year and Hopkins only having 2 years as a Bills player, he's the type of kid worth developing to replace the receivers that Buffalo will lose over the next two seasons.

192. Hunter Luepke, FB North Dakota State. Better than where he gets drafted because fullbacks aren't used much anymore. But he's multi-dimensional and his pass catching might be his best asset. Can be the power back in a two back set and grind out yards, or can be a triple threat lead back. Outside of Allen, Buffalo is awful in short yardage and he's the type of player who can change this situation. Core special teams type of player.

205. Jake Witt, OT Northern Michigan. Buffalo needs more at swing OT than Quessenbury. I think Tommy Doyle has the ability to be a very good swing OT and maybe more. Witt is the type of kid you stash as your 4th OT and groom to eventually replace Dawkins. He's getting drafted this low because of where he played, but he's got starter traits and athleticism.

Overall, I don't address DT. I deliberately do that because I think DT can be acquired pretty easily in free agency. I also think Beane will need to get a lower budget MLB anyway. Lots of developmental picks, but that's the type of player I like anyway. From a 2023 season perspective, adding Hopkins and Washington to the attack will be enough to get Buffalo over the hump. McDermott calling the defense will do more than fans think, as well.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I think I'd do this if I were Beane (acknowledging that there's 31 other teams and a lot in play).

27. Trade this pick to Arizona for Hopkins and 34. Package something in the 2024 draft if Arizona won't make the base trade. Hopkins is a possession receiver at this point, but he's as good of a possession receiver in the league. I don't think there's anyone other than Jefferson who can make the type of contested catches he can make. Allen needs this type of receiver.

34. Darnell Washington, TE Georgia. This pick is a transformative pick for the offense, much like when Belichick decided to move away from the WR-based, high octane offense and transitioned to 12 personnel. Washington is a scheme changer, and he's got more upside than most picks in this draft. The Bills get a lot harder to play defense against.

59. I'd phone up Atlanta and see if they're interested in swapping 59 for 75 and 113. Or the Pats for 76, 117, and 192. The Pats are typically traders so let's go with that deal.

76. Nick Herbig, LB Wisconsin. I think Herbig is another player with loads of upside. He's not a MLB now but I think he's got the athleticism to be a player in that spot. He won't be plug and play like Campbell, and he's not an elite mover like Sanders or Simpson. For a spot that doesn't necessarily require an elite player, Herbig could be a good fit.

91. AT Perry, WR Wake Forest. Total projection pick based on athletic ability. He's not been challenged as an X receiver who gets pressed a lot, but his speed and size make for the type of X receiver that projects well to the NFL. Replaces Gave Davis next season.

117. Ricky Stromberg, C Arkansas. Poor-man's Creed Humphries. He's the type of player who won't need a ton of developmental time, and he's not a smaller technician. Great athleticism.

130. Andre Carter, DE Army. Projection pick. He didn't test well, but the Army environment for seniors isn't focused on NFL preparation. I'm not surprised he tested poorly. He needs an NFL weight room and training table. Reminds me of a young Jason Taylor with his length.

137. Andrei Iosivas, WR Princeton. Tall and lanky X receiver. Fast and tall and can take the top off a defense. Skinny and doesn't play well through contact, but hasn't real had to either. Another stash and develop type of player. With Gabe Davis in a contract year and Hopkins only having 2 years as a Bills player, he's the type of kid worth developing to replace the receivers that Buffalo will lose over the next two seasons.

192. Hunter Luepke, FB North Dakota State. Better than where he gets drafted because fullbacks aren't used much anymore. But he's multi-dimensional and his pass catching might be his best asset. Can be the power back in a two back set and grind out yards, or can be a triple threat lead back. Outside of Allen, Buffalo is awful in short yardage and he's the type of player who can change this situation. Core special teams type of player.

205. Jake Witt, OT Northern Michigan. Buffalo needs more at swing OT than Quessenbury. I think Tommy Doyle has the ability to be a very good swing OT and maybe more. Witt is the type of kid you stash as your 4th OT and groom to eventually replace Dawkins. He's getting drafted this low because of where he played, but he's got starter traits and athleticism.

Overall, I don't address DT. I deliberately do that because I think DT can be acquired pretty easily in free agency. I also think Beane will need to get a lower budget MLB anyway. Lots of developmental picks, but that's the type of player I like anyway. From a 2023 season perspective, adding Hopkins and Washington to the attack will be enough to get Buffalo over the hump. McDermott calling the defense will do more than fans think, as well.

How many receivers are you intending on rostering?

Particularly since base formation will presumably be Diggs/Hopkins/Knox/Washington/Cook... There seems to be FAR too much investment in the position.

I love the idea of Washington as you know. And while i think Hopkins would be a mistake - at least you aren't really giving up much in the way of assets. But in that scenario i don't think I'd even draft another receiver & I'd probably look to immediately move Davis for a draft pick to use elsewhere (OL/LB).

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Bulletin board...

 

[Fezzy126]

Eh. He tested well, but Campbell doesn't play with that kind of explosion at all. He's not a quick twitch athlete, which is fine, but it shows up on tape for sure. There's a reason Edmunds was a consensus top 20 pick and Campbell it mocked as low as the bottom of the second round.

I really like Campbell, don't get me wrong, and I think he's actually much more developed than Edmunds was mentally when he was drafted, but he's not in the same ball park in terms of physical gifts.

1) I think the "quick twitch" stuff is overrated, Guys like AJ Brown and and DK Metcalf weren't twitchy at all, either on tape or in testing, and they're phenomenal athletes.

2) If the athletic testing is there and his production is already elite, I take that as having room to grow.

Bottom line, this kid is a player with a elite athletic traits, my man crush grows daily.

While I do agree with the idea of this.............McDermott has shown a disturbingly high degree of reluctance to use rookies unless absolutely needed. Hell, even when it was blatantly obvious that Elam had overtaken Jackson at CB.....Elam still only got 50% of the reps at CB2 at points. And how long was it before they realized that Cook was our best option at RB?

So even if we do take Campbell in the first round........I expect to see a LOT of Klein/Dodson/Bernard, especially in the early season.

I think the narrative about rookies is overblown. Part of the reason Elam didn't see the field was because of how good Benford (another rookie) looked in camp and preseason.

The previous year Rousseau played the 2nd most snaps at DE behind on Hughes. Spencer Brown started after week 4.

We have a solid team and quality roster, I just think it's hard for guys to find playing time in general. I wouldn't expect any of the MLB candidates to keep a guy like Campbell off the field. That dude would be a day 1 starter.

 

[Husko]

Again... He doesn't have the luxury of doing that now Allen is off his rookie contract.

When Beane doesn't have the resources to give him a deep roster - he'll simply have to rely on rookies more.

It was for different reasons - but he had no problem relying on the likes of White, Milano, Dawkins, Zay Jones, Edmunds, Knox, Singletary earlier in his tenure.

Milano and Singletary were both 50% or less their rookie years and Knox only 60%, FWIW.

I know you say it's about roster depth, but Elam was competing against literally nothing at CB last year and was still trusted with only 50% of snaps.

Beane just said in his most recent press conference that he doesn't really view late first round picks as plug and play starters because they're usually more like second round talents. This goes hand in hand with why Beane likes to draft for needs a year ahead of time, to let those players develop a year before they have to step up.

Aside from a RT that just runs away with the job, my expectation is that our first round pick plays about 50% of snaps. I'd love to be wrong, but that's my expectation.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

1) I think the "quick twitch" stuff is overrated, Guys like AJ Brown and and DK Metcalf weren't twitchy at all, either on tape or in testing, and they're phenomenal athletes.

2) If the athletic testing is there and his production is already elite, I take that as having room to grow.

Bottom line, this kid is a player with a elite athletic traits, my man crush grows daily.


I think the narrative about rookies is overblown. Part of the reason Elam didn't see the field was because of how good Benford (another rookie) looked in camp and preseason.

The previous year Rousseau played the 2nd most snaps at DE behind on Hughes. Spencer Brown started after week 4.

We have a solid team and quality roster, I just think it's hard for guys to find playing time in general. I wouldn't expect any of the MLB candidates to keep a guy like Campbell off the field. That dude would be a day 1 starter.

I certainly don't think Campbell has so much upside & I'm clearly not as high on him as you.

But it's hard to think of ANY player in this draft that would get more snaps from day one. The only other possibility would be on the OL & i don't see any sure things being available at #27.

 

[Husko]

Can't wait for them to use their first pick on a DT for us to all hate it together

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Milano and Singletary were both 50% or less their rookie years and Knox only 60%, FWIW.

I know you say it's about roster depth, but Elam was competing against literally nothing at CB last year and was still trusted with only 50% of snaps.

Beane just said in his most recent press conference that he doesn't really view late first round picks as plug and play starters because they're usually more like second round talents. This goes hand in hand with why Beane likes to draft for needs a year ahead of time, to let those players develop a year before they have to step up.

Aside from a RT that just runs away with the job, my expectation is that our first round pick plays about 50% of snaps. I'd love to be wrong, but that's my expectation.

Elam is a bit of a special case because of the scheme fit - or his lack of.

Also remember that one of the guys Elam was competing with was Benford - another rookie.

 

[Husko]

FWIW taking off my prognosticator hat and just speaking in terms of what I'm personally hoping for, I'd rank my first round positional preference (assuming close enough talent level):

1. Offensive Line
2. Wide Receiver
3. Linebacker
4. Tight End
5. Defensive Line
6. Secondary
7. Running Back

 

[Fezzy126]

Can't wait for them to use their first pick on a DT for us to all hate it together

I wouldn't hate DT, but I would take it as a sign that Oliver is as good as gone after this year.

The only positions that would really disappoint me are QB, RB, TE, or DB.

 

[Husko]

Elam is a bit of a special case because of the scheme fit - or his lack of.

Also remember that one of the guys Elam was competing with was Benford - another rookie.

It was more Dane Jackson getting in the way. Benford didn't play a single game week 13 to the end of the season. During that stretch Elam's snap counts were:

-Week 13: healthy inactive
-Week 14: 0% (active)
-Week 15: 47%
-Week 16: 48%
-Week 18: 43%

He did finally get into the 60s in the postseason.

I wouldn't hate DT, but I would take it as a sign that Oliver is as good as gone after this year.

The only positions that would really disappoint me are QB, RB, TE, or DB.

I'd hate it, because we've poured more resources (draft picks and FA signings!) into the DL position group than any other spot on the roster to very ho hum results. Until we start getting a better ROI for DL investment, I'd like a moratorium. Maybe that means Eric Washington. Maybe it's a scheme issue. I dunno, I'm no expert. I just see a continual dumping of resources and it not paying off.

 

[Fezzy126]

I'd hate it, because we've poured more resources (draft picks and FA signings!) into the DL position group than any other spot on the roster to very ho hum results. Until we start getting a better ROI for DL investment, I'd like a moratorium. Maybe that means Eric Washington. Maybe it's a scheme issue. I dunno, I'm no expert. I just see a continual dumping of resources and it not paying off.

If we drafted a WR in the top 2 rounds for 4 straight years and the position group was still only good but not great, wouldn't you want to keep taking kicks at the can?

 

[Sound_n_Fury]

I think he's actually much more developed than Edmunds was mentally when he was drafted, but he's not in the same ball park in terms of physical gifts.

I agree about the mental part, not so much about the gap in physical gifts.

Quick twitch with no instincts = Edmunds. He moved exceptionally fast at the snap--and often filled the wrong hole or over-ran the play. He couldn't shed blocks well either.

Campbell's first step may not be as fast as Edmunds but his eyes, processing and instincts are better, IMO. A lot of film I watched of Campbell shows him a beat slow off the snap--but then he's like a heat seeking missile as he reads, diagnoses and attacks, usually making the proper play.

It's like he has a computer in his head programmed with "how to play MLB," whereas Edmunds program was "how to run, jump and arrive a half second late."

 

[Der Jaeger]

How many receivers are you intending on rostering?

Particularly since base formation will presumably be Diggs/Hopkins/Knox/Washington/Cook... There seems to be FAR too much investment in the position.

I love the idea of Washington as you know. And while i think Hopkins would be a mistake - at least you aren't really giving up much in the way of assets. But in that scenario i don't think I'd even draft another receiver & I'd probably look to immediately move Davis for a draft pick to use elsewhere (OL/LB).

Diggs
Hopkins
Shakir
Harty
Perry
Iovasis

 

[Ace]

If we drafted a WR in the top 2 rounds for 4 straight years and the position group was still only good but not great, wouldn't you want to keep taking kicks at the can?

I’d hope they’d realize the difference between a great offense and a great defense after watching what happens in the playoffs every year. But they haven’t. If it was WR…yes I would. At Edge rusher…no I don’t. You’re going to end up in a shootout with Mahomes or Burrow anyway. And defenses just don’t matter as much against that level of QB. Philly had a great D…then they ran into Mahomes. Shootout.

We keep sending Allen out to win shootouts without enough bullets.

FWIW taking off my prognosticator hat and just speaking in terms of what I'm personally hoping for, I'd rank my first round positional preference (assuming close enough talent level):

1. Offensive Line
2. Wide Receiver
3. Linebacker
4. Tight End
5. Defensive Line
6. Secondary
7. Running Back

Mine is similar

1. Wide Receiver
2. Wide Receiver
3. Wide Receiver
4. Wide Receiver
5. Wide Receiver
6. Wide Receiver
7. Wide Receiver

 

[SundherDome]

Diggs
Hopkins
Shakir
Harty
Perry
Iovasis

What did you do to Davis?

 

[Husko]

If we drafted a WR in the top 2 rounds for 4 straight years and the position group was still only good but not great, wouldn't you want to keep taking kicks at the can?

I’d like to think that I’d be saying the same thing: asking how we manage to keep whiffing on the same position over and over again.