Buffalo Bills Off Season Begins - The Draft, Free Agency, and Cap Management, Oh My.

[Jim Bob]

That may be true but he also never had a salary cap situation like today. With Josh going into his second contract, I think the MO has to change. Beane's going to have to 'manage' the roster more and perhaps dial back the swing-for-the-fences aggressiveness.

Getting as many picks as possible has always been a good strategy for teams already in their competitive playoff window. It gives them roster flexibility and keeps the pipeline stocked for the inevitable FA losses that good teams routinely suffer.

Maybe Beane will change how he does things.

But, he also admitted in his press conference that when he sees a guy he likes falling, it is hard for him to resist trading up for him.

So....

 

[TehDoak]

My honest thought is that the Bills will probably draft according to NEXT years needs, not this years given their draft position. So I expect WR (with Davis potentially leaving) and DT (Oliver potentially walking), and C/RT (they can save 8.5M by releasing Morse next year and adding depth at RT would be a good thing given Brown's struggles.) Depending on how they feel about the WRs, moving up could make some sense if their guy is there. LB is a need, but its an immediate need rather than a next year need. So I expect them to address this via a post 6/1 cut from somewhere or even go with what we have an go get someone with a trade in season.

 

[Sound_n_Fury]

Maybe Beane will change how he does things.

But, he also admitted in his press conference that when he sees a guy he likes falling, it is hard for him to resist trading up for him.

So....

LOL. Not so different than Josh saying he has to be smart take better care of his body. It will be interesting to see if either guy can adapt.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

My honest thought is that the Bills will probably draft according to NEXT years needs, not this years given their draft position. So I expect WR (with Davis potentially leaving) and DT (Oliver potentially walking), and C/RT (they can save 8.5M by releasing Morse next year and adding depth at RT would be a good thing given Brown's struggles.) Depending on how they feel about the WRs, moving up could make some sense if their guy is there. LB is a need, but its an immediate need rather than a next year need. So I expect them to address this via a post 6/1 cut from somewhere or even go with what we have an go get someone with a trade in season.

Ignore today's needs in favour of 'maybe' needs next year?

Yeah... No. I'll never understand this logic. Particularly when you're a cap team & a SB contender.

And to anyone who thinks LB isn't an important role within the eyes of this regime... They traded up in R1 to get Edmunds even though they had to do it for Allen simultaneously. Even if you go back to when McBeane were at Carolina - that defence was built around Luke Kuechly.

 

[Zman5778]

Ignore today's needs in favour of 'maybe' needs next year?

Yeah... No. I'll never understand this logic. Particularly when you're a cap team & a SB contender.

And to anyone who thinks LB isn't an important role within the eyes of this regime... They traded up in R1 to get Edmunds even though they had to do it for Allen simultaneously. Even if you go back to when McBeane were at Carolina - that defence was built around Luke Kuechly.

There's also the idea that maybe Beane and McDermott have their eyes on a UFA to sign once it won't affect the 3rd round compensatory pick we're likely to get (I forget what date that is -- May 1 or June 1 or something). And as Doak stated above --- there might be a decent enough MLB shake free with the 6/1 cuts.

Zach Cunningham, Deion Jones, Myles Jack, Kwon Alexander......might not be sexy names but they're still out there.

 

[Jim Bob]

Ignore today's needs in favour of 'maybe' needs next year?

Yeah... No. I'll never understand this logic. Particularly when you're a cap team & a SB contender.

And to anyone who thinks LB isn't an important role within the eyes of this regime... They traded up in R1 to get Edmunds even though they had to do it for Allen simultaneously. Even if you go back to when McBeane were at Carolina - that defence was built around Luke Kuechly.

Speaking of Kuechly...

 

[Husko]

Ignore today's needs in favour of 'maybe' needs next year?

Yeah... No. I'll never understand this logic. Particularly when you're a cap team & a SB contender.

And to anyone who thinks LB isn't an important role within the eyes of this regime... They traded up in R1 to get Edmunds even though they had to do it for Allen simultaneously. Even if you go back to when McBeane were at Carolina - that defence was built around Luke Kuechly.

It's something Beane has not just done in the past (doubling down on DE a year before Hughes and Addison hit UFA, for example) but has talked about in pressers, both in previous years and then again just recently.

As for trading up for Edmunds, yes absolutely. But maybe that's just because they saw Edmunds as a special talent and they don't see any of these prospects as such.

Honestly they could pick almost any position except CB or DE with their first round pick and it wouldn't shock me.

 

[Zman5778]

Speaking of Kuechly...

While I largely agree with what Doak is saying above -- that we're mostly drafting for next year's needs.........I will always be absolutely convinced that Beane and McDermott LOVE Jack Campbell.

I'll come out and say that if we keep pick 27, I'm expecting him to be the pick.

 

[BuiltTagonTough]

Did someone on WGR really just call in about Rodgers and finish with “Hamlin’s situation was a poor excuse not to finish the game last year and cost them a Super Bowl?”

Because what the Holy f***.

 

[Zman5778]

Did someone on WGR really just call in about Rodgers and finish with “Hamlin’s situation was a poor excuse not to finish the game last year and cost them a Super Bowl?”

Because what the Holy f***.

You're surprised that such a take exists? Especially given how people said that Damar was actually dead and it's an imposter????????

I am never surprised with society's idiocy. Never.

 

[BuiltTagonTough]

I’m not at all surprised but but bringing it up out of nowhere how many months later? f***ing Hell people.

 

[Jim Bob]

It's something Beane has not just done in the past (doubling down on DE a year before Hughes and Addison hit UFA, for example) but has talked about in pressers, both in previous years and then again just recently.

As for trading up for Edmunds, yes absolutely. But maybe that's just because they saw Edmunds as a special talent and they don't see any of these prospects as such.

Honestly they could pick almost any position except CB or DE with their first round pick and it wouldn't shock me.

I would be less shocked by a CD or EDGE pick than QB, S, K, or P.

With Von coming back from the ACL and Epenesa and Lawson UFAs after 2023, an EDGE pick early would not shock me at all.

And I think they are more likely to take a CB and transition Benford to S than to take a S early.

I would also be shocked if they took a RB in the first.

 

[Zman5778]

I would be less shocked by a CD or EDGE pick than QB, S, K, or P.

With Von coming back from the ACL and Epenesa and Lawson UFAs after 2023, an EDGE pick early would not shock me at all.

And I think they are more likely to take a CB and transition Benford to S than to take a S early.

I would also be shocked if they took a RB in the first.

I wouldn't be shocked if we took Brian Branch in the first if he slips to us (or with a minor trade down). Yes, we have Rapp.......but we could have Rapp and Branch as our major reserves this year and then do a quick transition from Poyer/Hyde to Rapp/Branch. I don't think it's likely.....but I wouldn't be shocked with that particular player.

 

[buffa dud]

CJ Stroud reportedly tested low (historically low) in the NFL's pre-draft cognitive test - the S2. What's more interesting is how high Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes all scored on the same test.

Joe Burrow's stunning score on S2 Cognition test comes up again

A cool look at an impressive feat for Joe Burrow.

bengalswire.usatoday.com

"Recently, The Athletic highlighted the S2 Cognition test while examining whether the breakout for San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was easy to see coming.

And in the process, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow came up as a stunning example of the test’s validity.

As Matt Barrows pointed out, Burrow ranked among the NFL’s best by scoring in the 97th percentile:"

“He couldn’t give out Purdy’s exact score because it’s privileged information but said it was in the ‘mid 90s.’ That’s about where Brees, the former Saints quarterback famous for lightning-fast decision-making, scored and where two of the top passers in the league now, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Bills’ Josh Allen, also landed. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow took the test while at LSU and agreed to allow S2 to disclose the information.”

To me, this is the tip of the iceberg that sinks draft picks. I'd love to know more about what goes into it.

 

[Jim Bob]

CJ Stroud reportedly tested low (historically low) in the NFL's pre-draft cognitive test - the S2. What's more interesting is how high Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes all scored on the same test.

Joe Burrow's stunning score on S2 Cognition test comes up again

A cool look at an impressive feat for Joe Burrow.

bengalswire.usatoday.com

To me, this is the tip of the iceberg that sinks draft picks. I'd love to know more about what goes into it.

It's #lyingseason.

It smells to me like a team that is picking outside of the top 2-4 picks that likes Stroud got this story out there to try to get him to slide.

As far as the testing goes, here is what they say on their site:

How S2 Works | S2 Cognition

What is the S2 Test? Learn more about the S2 Test – how it works, what it measures, and why it's the only test of its kind. Explore S2 Test samples!

www.s2cognition.com

And here are a couple of The Athletic articles involving S2.

Introducing the S2 Cognition test that helps predict NFL quarterback success

The top NFL quarterbacks tend to score high on the S2 Cognition test that 800 draft prospects take each year. Purdy aced his exam last year.

theathletic.com

The Panthers, the S2 test and Bryce Young: What does it mean when the No. 1 pick is made?

While the S2 Cognition test scores are not made public, it is known that Bryce Young scored high on it.

theathletic.com

There is also the Athletic IQ test that is getting some buzz this draft season:

Can AIQ, an intelligence test that looks like Tetris, help NFL teams draft the next T.J. Watt?

The Steelers' star edge rusher aced his pre-draft IQ testing, and a lesser-known Pitt linebacker is one of this year's top testers.

theathletic.com

How biometric data proved Justin Jefferson was a unicorn: 'Holy ... he is off the charts'

Jefferson was the fifth receiver taken in the 2020 draft, but his former LSU trainer had a hunch — and a bunch of numbers to back it up.

theathletic.com

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Husko]

What we know about S2 testing is still very raw, but so far there seems to be some indication of a correlation between scores and NFL success. No, we don't have anywhere near enough information to really make good decisions ourselves (it's a lot more nuanced than just a number), but it's still something.

I don't think Stroud's horrible score is a lie. If it was his agent 100% would've leaked his actual score by now. In fact some folks like Brugler have come out and confirmed it, saying they just didn't prior report it because they don't feel comfortable using S2 yet because they don't have a clear idea of how to.

Who leaked Stroud's score? I dunno. Leaking something like that to the press to try to hurt his value and make him drop doesn't quite add up to me; the teams already have the numbers. More probably to me is a team like the Texans leaked it to justify their decision not to take him.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

It's something Beane has not just done in the past (doubling down on DE a year before Hughes and Addison hit UFA, for example) but has talked about in pressers, both in previous years and then again just recently.

As for trading up for Edmunds, yes absolutely. But maybe that's just because they saw Edmunds as a special talent and they don't see any of these prospects as such.

Honestly they could pick almost any position except CB or DE with their first round pick and it wouldn't shock me.

The big difference between the Rousseau/Epenesa/Basham years and now... The team is paying Allen franchise QB money. The days of luxury picks are gone.

I get that there are 'maybe' UFA's out there - but all of them have huge question marks.. Hence why they remain unsigned.

I've said this for a while - but i simply think McBeane prioritise LB way more than you do.

Totally agree with @Jim Bob regarding S picks too. Before resigning Poyer & then signing Rapp I'd have that position as a pretty high priority. But now? It's incredibly low....

 

[Husko]

The big difference between the Rousseau/Epenesa/Basham years and now... The team is paying Allen franchise QB money. The days of luxury picks are gone.

I get that there are 'maybe' UFA's out there - but all of them have huge question marks.. Hence why they remain unsigned.

I've said this for a while - but i simply think McBeane prioritise LB way more than you do.

Totally agree with @Jim Bob regarding S picks too. Before resigning Poyer & then signing Rapp I'd have that position as a pretty high priority. But now? It's incredibly low....

Let’s put it this way.

If the Bills don’t see any of the LBs as top 50 on their board do you think they should nonetheless take one to fill the need? Do you think Beane would?

They absolutey could take a LB at 27. But it’s far from a guarantee. That’s all I’m saying.

 

[SundherDome]

I think Beane is sitting in a great position, tbh. We don't need a QB or CB. There is a good chance that there are 7-8 of those that go before our pick and a chance a QB or CB slides to us that a team behind us wants.

He has a luxury of taking a guy they want or trading back and maybe getting above market value.

 

[Jim Bob]

Let’s put it this way.

If the Bills don’t see any of the LBs as top 50 on their board do you think they should nonetheless take one to fill the need? Do you think Beane would?

They absolutey could take a LB at 27. But it’s far from a guarantee. That’s all I’m saying.

Nothing in life is guaranteed. But, I would be surprised if McBeane didn't have Campbell in the top 50 on their board. The top 50 of their board likely extends into guys with 3rd round grades. And I highly doubt that they have Campbell with a Day 3 grade.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Let’s put it this way.

If the Bills don’t see any of the LBs as top 50 on their board do you think they should nonetheless take one to fill the need? Do you think Beane would?

They absolutey could take a LB at 27. But it’s far from a guarantee. That’s all I’m saying.

Despite what Beane says - it's never 100% according to the board. Team needs should & do play a factor.

Besides - I'd firmly expect at least one LB to be in their top 50 - probably more.

Now - if it's a question of where you think those guys get picked & you think your guy slips way beyond 27... That's when you explore trading back.

Yes - Beane's never done it before. But he's never managed a roster in this stage of it's life cycle before.

 

[JLewyB]

I just think all of those drops and 50/50 balls Gabe missed and it makes me need D-Hop. Sorry Gabe, you got your chance and you literally dropped it. Make the trade.

 

[Sound_n_Fury]

Did someone on WGR really just call in about Rodgers and finish with “Hamlin’s situation was a poor excuse not to finish the game last year and cost them a Super Bowl?”

Because what the Holy f***.

Well, it was a 'GR listener, so consider the source. That station wouldn't have any takes if they weren't all hot ones.

 

[Ace]

I really just don’t know if the Bills think LB is a need. This draft could go in so many different directions, it’s gonna be a fun one

Buscaglia said an interesting bit about this on his podcast today. Basically the LB they take at 27 if they did take one wouldn’t be an Edmunds replacement right away anyway. Edmunds had a first round grade and they moved up to get him. They’d be getting a 2nd round graded guy who would compete with a guy they took on day 2 last year who already has a year in the system. It’s not as easy as draft and play at LB.