Buffalo Bills Off Season Begins - The Draft, Free Agency, and Cap Management, Oh My.

[Dirty Dog]

2023 NFL Draft Prospect Visits Tracked by Team

walterfootball.com

Some interesting tidbits from this.

1) There are no visits for Jack Campbell with any team.
2) Here are the players with multiple visits with the Bills:

Player	Position	PRI	COM	PRO	VIR	WOR	LOC	SUM
Jordan Addison^, Wide Receiver, USC (COM, PRO, PRI)	WR	1​	1​	1​				3​
Nathaniel Dell^, Wide Receiver, Houston (PRI, WOR)	WR	1​				1​		2​
Zay Flowers^, Wide Receiver, Boston College (COM, PRI)	WR	1​	1​					2​
Justin Marshall^, Wide Receiver, Buffalo (WOR, LOC)	WR					1​	1​	2​
Bijan Robinson^, Running Back, Texas (COM, PRO)	RB		1​	1​				2​
Luke Schoonmaker^, Tight End, Michigan (COM, PRI)	TE	1​	1​					2​
O'Cyrus Torrence^, Offensive Guard, Florida (PRI, PRO)	IOL	1​		1​				2​
Darnell Washington^, Tight End, Georgia (COM, PRI)	TE	1​	1​					2​
Byron Young^, Defensive End, Tennessee (COM, PRI)	EDGE	1​	1​					2​

3) Here is how the visits have been used by position:

View attachment 697006

Nothing the bills are doing before the draft is suggesting they see LB as a hole. They brought in no free agents. Few pre draft visits. It just doesn’t seem like a team that sees the position as a hole the should be filled in day one or two

Instead, the interests seem to be weapons for josh, protecting josh, or defensive line. Which, yes please

 

[Rowley Birkin]

You're lumping me into the group that wants Allen to throw 80 times a game to 5 pro bowl receivers. That's obviously an overexaggeration, but you get my point. I've been advocating for 12 personnel for a while, and hoping Beane drafts Darnell Washington. So there's got to be more there than just over-valuation of the position.

I'd probably ask why a poster who advocated those actions would roster 7 receivers.

- Diggs is a legit #1 receiver. He's locked in long term and there are no issues.
- In my scenario, Hopkins is added. But he's in Buffalo for 2 years. Like Von Miller, it's a play to get the Bills over the hump and into the Super Bowl.
- Davis is on the last year of his deal. With Diggs and Hopkins, I don't see him as a likely re-signing.
- Harty is a slot receiver strictly. He is also only signed for 2 years.
- Shakir shows promise and I've been one of his biggest advocates, comparing him to Diggs pretty favorably.

So, assuming the Bills keep 7.

2023: Diggs, Davis, and Hopkins get most of the reps. Harty and Shakir are worked in. Perry gets some reps. Iovasis is a game day inactive most of the season as he's developed.

2024: Diggs, Hopkins, and either Perry or Shakir are getting the most reps. Harty is still a situational slot receiver. Iovasis is active but a special teamer.

2026: Diggs, Perry, Shakir, and Iovasis are the receivers.

It's just simply planning. Adding a receiver in the 3rd and 5th rounds of a draft hardly constitutes position over-valuation.

I've argued this point before - but why worry about 2026 when there are immediate needs now & multiple offseasons to take care of the future?

 

[Husko]

Harty has played extremely well on the outside. I think of him as way closer to a John brown replacement than a McKenzie replacement. But he is versatile and can play all over—but limiting him to the slot seems like a mistake. Let Davis/Shakir/Sherfield fill the slot on your scenario!

I expect his role to be a bit like Davis back when we had Sanders: inside/outside versatility.

I've argued this point before - but why worry about 2026 when there are immediate needs now & multiple offseasons to take care of the future?

Because that’s what good teams do: prioritize long term outlook and talent value over pigeon holing immediate needs. The reason I want a WR in rounds 1-3 hs more about Diggs getting old and Davis being a pending UFA than just this year. It’s also why I prefer Sanders to Campbell: even if there’s an adjustment period he projects as the better long term player.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

You're lumping me into the group that wants Allen to throw 80 times a game to 5 pro bowl receivers. That's obviously an overexaggeration, but you get my point. I've been advocating for 12 personnel for a while, and hoping Beane drafts Darnell Washington. So there's got to be more there than just over-valuation of the position.

I'd probably ask why a poster who advocated those actions would roster 7 receivers.

- Diggs is a legit #1 receiver. He's locked in long term and there are no issues.
- In my scenario, Hopkins is added. But he's in Buffalo for 2 years. Like Von Miller, it's a play to get the Bills over the hump and into the Super Bowl.
- Davis is on the last year of his deal. With Diggs and Hopkins, I don't see him as a likely re-signing.
- Harty is a slot receiver strictly. He is also only signed for 2 years.
- Shakir shows promise and I've been one of his biggest advocates, comparing him to Diggs pretty favorably.

So, assuming the Bills keep 7.

2023: Diggs, Davis, and Hopkins get most of the reps. Harty and Shakir are worked in. Perry gets some reps. Iovasis is a game day inactive most of the season as he's developed.

2024: Diggs, Hopkins, and either Perry or Shakir are getting the most reps. Harty is still a situational slot receiver. Iovasis is active but a special teamer.

2026: Diggs, Perry, Shakir, and Iovasis are the receivers.

It's just simply planning. Adding a receiver in the 3rd and 5th rounds of a draft hardly constitutes position over-valuation.

I've argued this point before - but why worry about 2026 when there are immediate needs now & multiple offseasons to take care of the future

Harty has played extremely well on the outside. I think of him as way closer to a John brown replacement than a McKenzie replacement. But he is versatile and can play all over—but limiting him to the slot seems like a mistake. Let Davis/Shakir/Sherfield fill the slot on your scenario!

The way Harty's deal is structured - he's going to either be cut before next season (2024) or he's going to be a featured part if he's kept around.

 

[Husko]

Nothing the bills are doing before the draft is suggesting they see LB as a hole. They brought in no free agents. Few pre draft visits. It just doesn’t seem like a team that sees the position as a hole the should be filled in day one or two

Instead, the interests seem to be weapons for josh, protecting josh, or defensive line. Which, yes please

It’s either a genuine shift in philosophy, or the biggest smokescreen Beane has done since becoming GM.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I expect his role to be a bit like Davis back when we had Sanders: inside/outside versatility.

Because that’s what good teams do: prioritize long term outlook and talent value over pigeon holing immediate needs. The reason I want a WR in rounds 1-3 hs more about Diggs getting old and Davis being a pending UFA than just this year. It’s also why I prefer Sanders to Campbell: even if there’s an adjustment period he projects as the better long term player.

It makes FAR more sense to address the position next offseason when the draft class is likely to be much better... IF it even becomes a need at all (which is am arguement in itself) .

Completely different situation to Sanders vs Campbell... Like light years different.

 

[Husko]

2023 HF Bills Big Board 46

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

docs.google.com

Reminder to vote in our final poll which closes tonight at midnight.

 

[Zman5778]

NFL Mock Draft 2023: Our beat writers pick 5 QBs in first round with Bryce Young No. 1

Compared to previous mocks, many of the names remained the same in Round 1, but the order of those names has changed quite a bit.

theathletic.com

27. Buffalo Bills: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina​

With Addison and Flowers off the board, the Bills tried to get a deal done with the Raiders to land Nos. 38 and 70, but the clock nearly ran out. Jalin Hyatt was tempting, but his fit as a slot receiver in Buffalo’s offense is more of a projection and not as clean a fit in the Bills’ 11 personnel-heavy offense as Josh Downs. In Downs, the Bills get a locked-in slot receiver who can make an impact in 2023 by manipulating defenders over the middle and hauling in tough, contested catches. In the past, having that go-to slot receiver was a critical element when the Bills were at their best offensively. — Joe Buscaglia

 

[Husko]

Highly recommend this final pre draft episode of the Buffalo beat where they really drill down on the first round pick options. They consider:
-OT: But perhaps no one worth the pick will fall that far
-MLB: makes sense if they feel someone is a genuine impact player like Edmunds, but worth considering they usually use first round picks on a high cost premium positions which LB is not (and maybe they only traded up for Edmunds because he was a great value)
-WR: But matters if they like the value of guys there versus guys they like in the second round
-DT: Makes sense as a long term need, but less so if they think they can get a deal done with Oliver.
-Edge and CB: Premium positions but they don’t think Beane would go back to those wells again right now.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Harty has played extremely well on the outside. I think of him as way closer to a John brown replacement than a McKenzie replacement. But he is versatile and can play all over—but limiting him to the slot seems like a mistake. Let Davis/Shakir/Sherfield fill the slot on your scenario!

If Harty is smiply a run deep routes and try to take a safety with you type, then sure. But you really want a guy who wins on the outside. That's the problem with Davis - he didn't win last year (probably because he was hurt). I don't see a ton of 5-6 outside receivers winning match-ups.

I've argued this point before - but why worry about 2026 when there are immediate needs now & multiple offseasons to take care of the future?

It's about focus and what you can get in free agency. Buffalo got Shetfield and Harty in free agency because WRs are pricy. They also got legit starters in McGovern and Edwards to get the interior of the OL figured out. Last season, the Bills added Jones, Settle, and Phillips. IOL and DT aren't pricy positions to fill with adequate players.

Typically, edge rushers, OTs, corners, and receivers get higher end free agent deals because of the way the game is played. If you can solidify those positions in the draft and lower costs, that's big. If you look at my recommended draft, I took Andre Carter and Jake Witt as developmental picks because of the positions they play. If Beane loses Epenesa and can replace him with Carter in a year, that's big. Same with Jake Witt (and really, Tommy Doyle).

It's just a way to build a roster that can work in the current era with game style and the cap.

 

[Husko]

NFL Mock Draft 2023: Our beat writers pick 5 QBs in first round with Bryce Young No. 1

Compared to previous mocks, many of the names remained the same in Round 1, but the order of those names has changed quite a bit.

theathletic.com

I like Downs, but he really seems like a slot only, and I think in the first round I’d like someone that projects to possibly play outside if needed. Downs could legit be Cole Beasley for this offense, but I’d like what he brings a lot more in the second. But I’m sure I’d still be excited by the pick

 

[Zman5778]

I like Downs, but he really seems like a slot only, and I think in the first round I’d like someone that projects to possibly play outside if needed. Downs could legit be Cole Beasley for this offense, but I’d like what he brings a lot more in the second. But I’m sure I’d still be excited by the pick

I don't think Downs gets to us in the 2nd. And hey.....if Buffalo loves the guy -- go ahead and snag him in the first.

 

[Fezzy126]

Nothing the bills are doing before the draft is suggesting they see LB as a hole. They brought in no free agents. Few pre draft visits. It just doesn’t seem like a team that sees the position as a hole the should be filled in day one or two

Instead, the interests seem to be weapons for josh, protecting josh, or defensive line. Which, yes please

Last year they "reportedly" only met with 2 CBs and 8 TEs. They drafted two CBs and no TEs... They also met with 5 guards and drafted none. The correlation between predraft meetings and drafted players is always made after the draft, we almost never have the full list predraft.

 

[Husko]

Last year they "reportedly" only met with 2 CBs and 8 TEs. They drafted two CBs and no TEs... They also met with 5 guards and drafted none. The correlation between predraft meetings and drafted players is always made after the draft, we almost never have the full list predraft.

View attachment 697046

I'm not sure when that list was made, but it's definitley under inclusive. They had top 30 visits with Elam and Emerson, in addition to the CBs listed, as of April 7.

I think the Bills have had almost every first round pick they've made under McBeane in for a top 30 visit. (and most of their day 2 picks)

 

[Dirty Dog]

My final thoughts on each position going into draft:

QB - No thank you. If there is some high potential QB in the 4th or something, fine.

RB - No, unless you are getting Bijan Robinson (which they aren't going to be in position to do). Bijan Robinson can be an all-down stud and would really improve this team. It would move Cook into more of a utility role, which is fine. My memory of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara was that they were godo at the same time. But outside of him, I'd rather just roll with Cook.

TE - Sure! I'd take another TE...as long as Dorsey can figure out how to use both Knox and him

WR - This scares me a little bit. We are 5 deep with good WRs. I'd love to add another #1 quality WR, I think it would be huge. But I just don't think any of the rookie WRs are going to walk in and play opposite Diggs and play great. I'd rather draft a high potential WR in the 3rd or so and let him develop as our #6 for this year.

IOL - I think we are set this year. I think Bates/Morse/McGovern with Edwards/Boettger as depth is actually pretty solid. But I won't complain at all if we take one early. You can never have too much talent on the lines.

OT - I think we are in decent shape here too. But I think adding a RT would really bolster the group (and I like spencer brown).

D-Line - I am always okay with this. D-Line can change the game and is extremely important. If there was an edge rusher that could come in and get to the QB, great. If there is a DT that can get to the QB, great.

LB - This would annoy me. You already have milano as a core piece. How many core pieces do you need to make your defense function? IF you need a 1st round investment at every spot, then what good is your scheme?

CB - This would also annoy me. You are not only deep at this position, but you have a knack for drafting guys late that excel. Go get a CB late in the draft and move on

S - The third position that would annoy me. You have Poyer and Hyde. Next year you can transition to Benford/Hamlin and Rapp. The safety FA market was a joke this year. This is not a position to invest a big resource into unless you are getting something special.


So for the first two rounds, I'd love a TE, OT, or Bijan Robinson (or trade for an established WR). I'd like a WR, OG, DE, DT. And I'd be annoyed at a LB, CB, S

Last year they "reportedly" only met with 2 CBs and 8 TEs. They drafted two CBs and no TEs... They also met with 5 guards and drafted none. The correlation between predraft meetings and drafted players is always made after the draft, we almost never have the full list predraft.

View attachment 697046

Good post but it contradicts what I have read before. They absolutely met with Elam

 

[Ace]

If people want to use 2026 as reasons to look at how to use our 1st…that’s more reason to get a WR. Hell…2024 is too. Diggs turns 30 this season. Davis’s contract is up. 5 deep with good WR? In what world? They’re 1 deep at great WR who is aging and agitated. Then they have a bunch of guys positioned a full level higher than they should be. Upgrade above them and then you have what you think you have.

 

[Fezzy126]

I'm not sure when that list was made, but it's definitley under inclusive. They had top 30 visits with Elam and Emerson, in addition to the CBs listed, as of April 7.

I think the Bills have had almost every first round pick they've made under McBeane in for a top 30 visit. (and most of their day 2 picks)

I grabbed that list from Buffalo rumblings (2022 NFL Draft: Buffalo Bills pre-draft meeting tracker), which oddly enough provided links to their sources that included Talbot's site.

Talbot's article was originally printed on 4/7, but it was updated on 4/27, the night before the draft, which is when they added Elam.

Without an official list and only partial reports, we have an incomplete picture.

Good post but it contradicts what I have read before. They absolutely met with Elam

Again - the report about Elam's visit didn't come out until 24 hours before the draft

 

[Dirty Dog]

I grabbed that list from Buffalo rumblings (2022 NFL Draft: Buffalo Bills pre-draft meeting tracker), which oddly enough provided links to their sources that included Talbot's site.

Talbot's article was originally printed on 4/7, but it was updated on 4/27, the night before the draft, which is when they added Elam.

Without an official list and only partial reports, we have an incomplete picture.



Again - the report about Elam's visit didn't come out until 24 hours before the draft

Right, so they met with the player they picked and met with multiple CBs and RBs before drafting those positions with their first two picks. Until we hear otherwise, they haven’t show interest in LB.

I’m not (nor is anyone else) suggesting there is a 1-1 correlation with amounts of visits and what positions they pick. But they have generally drafted from positions they had a good amount of visits with.

Doesn’t mean they the trend will continue this year. And there’s always exceptions to someone falling that you had a first round grade on that you didn’t expect to be there

Basically, LB/S/OT fall into the uninterested group this year. And the bills haven’t spent a day 1 or day 2 pick on a position they showed no interest in

 

[Jim Bob]

Depending on how things fall, I wouldn't hate Mayer being an early pick.

 

[Husko]

Right, so they met with the player they picked and met with multiple CBs and RBs before drafting those positions with their first two picks. Until we hear otherwise, they haven’t show interest in LB.

I’m not (nor is anyone else) suggesting there is a 1-1 correlation with amounts of visits and what positions they pick. But they have generally drafted from positions they had a good amount of visits with.

Doesn’t mean they the trend will continue this year. And there’s always exceptions to someone falling that you had a first round grade on that you didn’t expect to be there

Basically, LB/S/OT fall into the uninterested group this year. And the bills haven’t spent a day 1 or day 2 pick on a position they showed no interest in

If anything the fact that they were sniffing around a position like Te last year and didn’t take one and now are doing it again this year just bolsters the chance that they do. Looking at visits over a few year span can be particularly informative.

 

[Dirty Dog]

If people want to use 2026 as reasons to look at how to use our 1st…that’s more reason to get a WR. Hell…2024 is too. Diggs turns 30 this season. Davis’s contract is up. 5 deep with good WR? In what world? They’re 1 deep at great WR who is aging and agitated. Then they have a bunch of guys positioned a full level higher than they should be. Upgrade above them and then you have what you think you have.

I do not think Harty, Sherfield, or Shakir would be playing a “full position higher than they should be”. At all.

Your problem appears to be with Davis which so fine. But the rest seems like hyperbole

 

[OkimLom]

I like Downs, but he really seems like a slot only, and I think in the first round I’d like someone that projects to possibly play outside if needed. Downs could legit be Cole Beasley for this offense, but I’d like what he brings a lot more in the second. But I’m sure I’d still be excited by the pick

If Beane and Co have a certain amount of 1st Round grades for guys (say maybe there's 20 or 23 guys), and all that's left are 2nd Round Grades, should we really be looking at where we are picking as a 1st Round mindset then?

 

[Fezzy126]

Right, so they met with the player they picked and met with multiple CBs and RBs before drafting those positions with their first two picks. Until we hear otherwise, they haven’t show interest in LB.

I’m not (nor is anyone else) suggesting there is a 1-1 correlation with amounts of visits and what positions they pick. But they have generally drafted from positions they had a good amount of visits with.

Doesn’t mean they the trend will continue this year. And there’s always exceptions to someone falling that you had a first round grade on that you didn’t expect to be there

Basically, LB/S/OT fall into the uninterested group this year. And the bills haven’t spent a day 1 or day 2 pick on a position they showed no interest in

Again, is this a true statement? Last year they had two WR visits and drafted a WR. They had 8 TE visits and didn't draft one.

Position	2022 Predraft Visits	2022 Drafted
QB	0	0
RB	4	1
WR	2	1
TE	8	0
OL	5	1
DT	1	0
Edge	3	0
LB	4	2
CB	4	2
S	2	0
ST	0	1

Campbell also explicitly said that he had predraft visits but the teams asked him not to disclose which teams he met with with. So do we know? Or do we just know what the Bills want us to know?

 

[Husko]

I do not think Harty, Sherfield, or Shakir would be playing a “full position higher than they should be”. At all.

Your problem appears to be with Davis which so fine. But the rest seems like hyperbole

The way I see it, right now we have a solid #1 in Diggs, a fine 2/3 in Davis, a good 3/4 in Harty, and then Sherfield who I have no clue what his role is but I'm glad we have good depth. Shakir is TBD but hopefully he can develop into a good slot option eventually.

Ideally we add another guy in that 2/3 range, be it a full time slot player, someone to push Gabe to the slot on some snaps, or whatever else. That would round out the group nicely, in my opinion. I'm not saying Gabe is the problem, but I do think Gabe playing 100% of snaps and exclusively outside / fly route receiver is a problem. Get him back to his 2021 role and we'll be in business.

 

[Husko]

Again, is this a true statement? Last year they had two WR visits and drafted a WR. They had 8 TE visits and didn't draft one.

Position	2022 Predraft Visits	2022 Drafted
QB	0	0
RB	4	1
WR	2	1
TE	8	0
OL	5	1
DT	1	0
Edge	3	0
LB	4	2
CB	4	2
S	2	0
ST	0	1

Campbell also explicitly said that he had predraft visits but the teams asked him not to disclose which teams he met with with. So do we know? Or do we just know what the Bills want us to know?

Part of the question is how we define and characterize "visits." Do we only count the top 30 visits where you host player one on one and put them through the ringer? Zoom calls? Taking them out to dinner at their pro day? Meeting at pro day/draft?