Prediction Contest: Nylander Points Total: 2018-19

[Confucius]

So weird that people think $7m for willy is bad when we're paying $6.3 to the corpse of Marleau.

Marleau > William

 

[Notsince67]

So weird that people think $7m for willy is bad when we're paying $6.3 to the corpse of Marleau.

And Marleau is gone after next year and has helped to develop the young guys. Technically, Willy is making 12MM this year while Marleau is making 6MM

 

[ottomaddox]

Willie is trying. That's all I ask for. Try. It will come. Relax kid. Ignore negative comments. Play your game. The contract **** is over, it's done. Try.

"No try. Only do." -Yoda the great philosopher

 

[Notsince67]

"No try. Only do." -Yoda the great philosopher

At least he stopped posting here under LeafsHome

 

[RLF]

Sure. They say the canes are good and the capitals are crap

It''s just a matter of time and it will all balance out you'll see.

 

[nuck]

to be fair, you have to put the Marleau signing into context. No one expected Mathews fall into the Leafs lap, therefore the rebuild would have taken at least a year or two longer, by which time Marleau's contract would have expired. When looking at what he brings to the team you just can't look at his on ice stats, he bring a huge amount of mentoring that has to be factored into the equation. That being said, it would be nice if his game improved a little. I can live with him on the team for another year, it is what it is.

Absolutely. I wouldn't have done it but its sunk money now and when it was spent there was no realistic concern about $40M in contracts for the top forwards. The cap was an absolute non factor then, and who does a rebuild in 3 years? Without the JT signing they would still have been fine. A perfect storm of crazy expensive talent to pay for.

Willie's deal was made with the full knowledge of the team's cap pressures and that every dollar is huge until Marner and Matthews are fit in. Combine that with how Willie squeezed max money out of Dubas so the holdout cost him nothing and he made KD look like a weakling which really bodes poorly for future negotiations.

At his age does Marleau still have the ability to ramp up his game? I doubt it for the long haul, but I am really hoping he can be a difference maker in a playoff series. He moves well for his age and is very strong. He was definitely motivated last playoff.

 

[Notsince67]

It''s just a matter of time and it will all balance out you'll see.

All joking aside, I've been looking at signs the leafs are getting better with Willy's return. I do kind of hate the possession stats being thrown around so I looked for something better.
I found this posting

https://thesportjournal.org/article...t-based-metrics-at-predicting-hockey-success/

The general gist is that goal differentials are more predictive of future wins.
I took a look at the leafs record.
The average goal differential pre-Willy was 1.04. After Willy joined the team, we are talking .53. I am not saying that this is all Willy's fault but for those who are claiming fantastic possession numbers and the team is better, can now understand why many are scheptical.
I plotted a 10 game moving average. The arrow is when Willy started playing. There is some indication that the team is beginning to come out of the hole but I'm not buying the fact that we have been better since Willy came back.

 

[Pookie]

A lot depends if he plays with Kadri or not.

Hard to get points down there

 

[ottomaddox]

Absolutely. I wouldn't have done it but its sunk money now and when it was spent there was no realistic concern about $40M in contracts for the top forwards. The cap was an absolute non factor then, and who does a rebuild in 3 years? Without the JT signing they would still have been fine. A perfect storm of crazy expensive talent to pay for.

Willie's deal was made with the full knowledge of the team's cap pressures and that every dollar is huge until Marner and Matthews are fit in. Combine that with how Willie squeezed max money out of Dubas so the holdout cost him nothing and he made KD look like a weakling which really bodes poorly for future negotiations.

At his age does Marleau still have the ability to ramp up his game? I doubt it for the long haul, but I am really hoping he can be a difference maker in a playoff series. He moves well for his age and is very strong. He was definitely motivated last playoff.

Yes. Marleau is a hall of fame NHLer

 

[RLF]

All joking aside, I've been looking at signs the leafs are getting better with Willy's return. I do kind of hate the possession stats being thrown around so I looked for something better.
I found this posting

https://thesportjournal.org/article...t-based-metrics-at-predicting-hockey-success/

The general gist is that goal differentials are more predictive of future wins.
I took a look at the leafs record.
The average goal differential pre-Willy was 1.04. After Willy joined the team, we are talking .53. I am not saying that this is all Willy's fault but for those who are claiming fantastic possession numbers and the team is better, can now understand why many are scheptical.
I plotted a 10 game moving average. The arrow is when Willy started playing. There is some indication that the team is beginning to come out of the hole but I'm not buying the fact that we have been better since Willy came back.
View attachment 174549

You don't have to look for stats to prove anything to anyone.

Stats only show what people want them to show. Anybody could cherry pick stats to show Nylander is helping or hurting the team or any player for that matter.

I understand ADV stats pretty well....Which means I understand that people use them to try and prove what they really want to believe about a player.

Anyone should be able to watch Willy play and understand he is not as effective as he was last year yet. It is also pretty obvious he looks better with Matthews.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Marleau > William

That's one way to never take your future opinions seriously.

 

[Tables of Stats]

A lot depends if he plays with Kadri or not.

Hard to get points down there

Kadri seems to do fine though.

In the 15 games since Nylander has been back, Kadri has 9 points to Nylanders 3. That puts Kadri at a 0.6 PPG pace (a 50 point pace) which is exceptional for a 3rd liner and more than acceptable for a second line player on most teams. Kadri is not the issue.

 

[ANDI P IS CUTE]

can i change my prediction to 11 points....

 

[hullsy47]

A lot depends if he plays with Kadri or not.

Hard to get points down there

well I guess pasternak couldn't score with anyone but Mathews
he held out for 900k over 6 years and he wants sympathy
he screwed the pooch for 6 months
he has to man up .
Mathews don't need willy

 

[hullsy47]

You don't have to look for stats to prove anything to anyone.

Stats only show what people want them to show. Anybody could cherry pick stats to show Nylander is helping or hurting the team or any player for that matter.

I understand ADV stats pretty well....Which means I understand that people use them to try and prove what they really want to believe about a player.

Anyone should be able to watch Willy play and understand he is not as effective as he was last year yet. It is also pretty obvious he looks better with Matthews.

even some woman would look better with Mathews
gimme a break

 

[MyBudJT]

That's one way to never take your future opinions seriously.

Marleau's Career >>>>> Nylander's Career... don't you agree?

In all fairness, that MIGHT have been what he was referring to...

Besides that, Nylanders production is nowhere close to Marleau's this season... so there is that as well.

 

[Pookie]

Kadri seems to do fine though.

In the 15 games since Nylander has been back, Kadri has 9 points to Nylanders 3. That puts Kadri at a 0.6 PPG pace (a 50 point pace) which is exceptional for a 3rd liner and more than acceptable for a second line player on most teams. Kadri is not the issue.

Well consider:

He has 1 goal over those 15 games which equals Nylander’s production. Hard to pick up assists if neither is scoring.

One other caution would be that 5 of those points came over the span of 2 games. The problem with pace is that if we use 4 points over 13 games as the pace, we get 25.

If we use 9 over 15 we get 50.

I think it’s clear to everyone that Kadri is not having a terrific season. That was my point.

 

[Pookie]

even some woman would look better with Mathews
gimme a break

Can you clarify what you meant here? Because it sounds ignorant.

 

[Pookie]

Kadri seems to do fine though.

In the 15 games since Nylander has been back, Kadri has 9 points to Nylanders 3. That puts Kadri at a 0.6 PPG pace (a 50 point pace) which is exceptional for a 3rd liner and more than acceptable for a second line player on most teams. Kadri is not the issue.

One other interesting point.

Kapanen has played with both Matthews and Kadri with similar frequency.

He has 25 points. 21 of which have come with a Center other than Kadri.

Kasperi Kapanen - Frozen Tools

 

[Tables of Stats]

Well consider:

He has 1 goal over those 15 games which equals Nylander’s production. Hard to pick up assists if neither is scoring.

One other caution would be that 5 of those points came over the span of 2 games. The problem with pace is that if we use 4 points over 13 games as the pace, we get 25.

If we use 9 over 15 we get 50.

I think it’s clear to everyone that Kadri is not having a terrific season. That was my point.

So how did Kadri get 8 assists over that span then?

Also, Kadri is on pace for a 17 goal, 31 assist, 48 point season while playing on the third line. Yes, he's not scoring at his usual rate, but he's putting up solid second line numbers as your third center. He's literally a top 60 center (he's tied for 55th) in terms of points production this season while being given the 70th most minutes per game. His production is more than fine for the role he's in.

It's highly unlikely to be his fault if the players on his wing aren't scoring given his production.

 

[Pookie]

So how did Kadri get 8 assists over that span then?

Well, we have to look deeper than a summary. Since hockey allows changing on the fly, lines aren’t always static.

2A came on the PP where Nylander doesn’t play.

1A came setting up Tavares at EV, other assist to Mathews

1A came setting up Marner

1A came 4v4 in OT setting up Kapanen

That leaves 3A left with his traditional line, presumably with Nylander on the ice.
Marleau scores twice and Rielly did once. Nylander assisted on 1 of those goals.

So, of the assists, looks like only 3 were with Nylander on the ice. And Nylander also picked up a point on one of those.

 

[Confucius]

That's one way to never take your future opinions seriously.

William 15 games played 1 goal 2 assists
Marleau last 15 games played 4 goals 1 assists

William 200 NHL games played 49 goals
Marleau last 2.5 seasons (64 goals)

Last year's playoffs, Marleau 4 goals 1 assist, William 1 goal 3 assists.

Marleau @ 39 years old > William@ 22 years old, but it is close.

If both players careers ended today, what possible metric could you use to state William> Marleau ?

 

[RLF]

even some woman would look better with Mathews
gimme a break

I have no idea what this has to do with what I wrote. Give you a break on what? He looks better with Matthews as a combo than with other players? which I said was obvious.

 

[RLF]

Can you clarify what you meant here? Because it sounds ignorant.

An odd comment for sure.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Well, we have to look deeper than a summary. Since hockey allows changing on the fly, lines aren’t always static.

2A came on the PP where Nylander doesn’t play.

1A came setting up Tavares at EV, other assist to Mathews

1A came setting up Marner

1A came 4v4 in OT setting up Kapanen

That leaves 3A left with his traditional line, presumably with Nylander on the ice.
Marleau scores twice and Rielly did once. Nylander assisted on 1 of those goals.

So, of the assists, looks like only 3 were with Nylander on the ice. And Nylander also picked up a point on one of those.

By that same token, shouldn't Nylander also spend time on the ice with players that aren't Kadri? Also, shouldn't an 'elite' player produce his own chances to make his linemates better? Given that his linemates have scored points in the 15 games he's been back, why hasn't he?