Prediction Contest: Nylander Points Total: 2018-19

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by indigobuffalo, Dec 3, 2018.

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Nylander’s 2018-19 Points

  1. 0-25 points

  2. 26-35 points

  3. 36-45 points

  4. 46-55 points

  5. HOLY MAKINAW! 56+ points!!

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  1. Confucius

    Confucius We Can and We Will

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    Marleau > William
     
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  2. Notsince67

    Notsince67 Papi and the Lamplighters

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    And Marleau is gone after next year and has helped to develop the young guys. Technically, Willy is making 12MM this year while Marleau is making 6MM
     
  3. heybuddyhowyadoing

    heybuddyhowyadoing Registered User

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    "No try. Only do." -Yoda the great philosopher
     
  4. Notsince67

    Notsince67 Papi and the Lamplighters

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    At least he stopped posting here under LeafsHome

     
  5. RLF

    RLF Registered User

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    It''s just a matter of time and it will all balance out ;)you'll see.
     
  6. nuck

    nuck Pelgrane

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    Absolutely. I wouldn't have done it but its sunk money now and when it was spent there was no realistic concern about $40M in contracts for the top forwards. The cap was an absolute non factor then, and who does a rebuild in 3 years? Without the JT signing they would still have been fine. A perfect storm of crazy expensive talent to pay for.

    Willie's deal was made with the full knowledge of the team's cap pressures and that every dollar is huge until Marner and Matthews are fit in. Combine that with how Willie squeezed max money out of Dubas so the holdout cost him nothing and he made KD look like a weakling which really bodes poorly for future negotiations.

    At his age does Marleau still have the ability to ramp up his game? I doubt it for the long haul, but I am really hoping he can be a difference maker in a playoff series. He moves well for his age and is very strong. He was definitely motivated last playoff.
     
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  7. Notsince67

    Notsince67 Papi and the Lamplighters

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    All joking aside, I've been looking at signs the leafs are getting better with Willy's return. I do kind of hate the possession stats being thrown around so I looked for something better.
    I found this posting

    https://thesportjournal.org/article...t-based-metrics-at-predicting-hockey-success/

    The general gist is that goal differentials are more predictive of future wins.
    I took a look at the leafs record.
    The average goal differential pre-Willy was 1.04. After Willy joined the team, we are talking .53. I am not saying that this is all Willy's fault but for those who are claiming fantastic possession numbers and the team is better, can now understand why many are scheptical.
    I plotted a 10 game moving average. The arrow is when Willy started playing. There is some indication that the team is beginning to come out of the hole but I'm not buying the fact that we have been better since Willy came back.
    upload_2019-1-11_17-37-12.png
     
  8. Pookie

    Pookie It was a pleasure doing business with you

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    A lot depends if he plays with Kadri or not.

    Hard to get points down there
     
  9. heybuddyhowyadoing

    heybuddyhowyadoing Registered User

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    Yes. Marleau is a hall of fame NHLer
     
  10. RLF

    RLF Registered User

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    You don't have to look for stats to prove anything to anyone.

    Stats only show what people want them to show. Anybody could cherry pick stats to show Nylander is helping or hurting the team or any player for that matter.

    I understand ADV stats pretty well....Which means I understand that people use them to try and prove what they really want to believe about a player.

    Anyone should be able to watch Willy play and understand he is not as effective as he was last year yet. It is also pretty obvious he looks better with Matthews.
     
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  11. Leafs at Knight

    Leafs at Knight ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    That's one way to never take your future opinions seriously.
     
  12. Norade

    Norade Registered User

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    Kadri seems to do fine though.

    In the 15 games since Nylander has been back, Kadri has 9 points to Nylanders 3. That puts Kadri at a 0.6 PPG pace (a 50 point pace) which is exceptional for a 3rd liner and more than acceptable for a second line player on most teams. Kadri is not the issue.
     
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  13. ANDI P IS CUTE

    ANDI P IS CUTE Registered User

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    can i change my prediction to 11 points....
     
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  14. hullsy47

    hullsy47 Registered User

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    well I guess pasternak couldn't score with anyone but Mathews
    he held out for 900k over 6 years and he wants sympathy
    he screwed the pooch for 6 months
    he has to man up .
    Mathews don't need willy
     
  15. hullsy47

    hullsy47 Registered User

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    even some woman would look better with Mathews
    gimme a break
     
  16. MyBudJT

    MyBudJT Formerly WILDLIFEGUY

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    Marleau's Career >>>>> Nylander's Career... don't you agree?

    In all fairness, that MIGHT have been what he was referring to...

    Besides that, Nylanders production is nowhere close to Marleau's this season... so there is that as well.
     
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  17. Pookie

    Pookie It was a pleasure doing business with you

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    Well consider:

    He has 1 goal over those 15 games which equals Nylander’s production. Hard to pick up assists if neither is scoring.

    One other caution would be that 5 of those points came over the span of 2 games. The problem with pace is that if we use 4 points over 13 games as the pace, we get 25.

    If we use 9 over 15 we get 50.

    I think it’s clear to everyone that Kadri is not having a terrific season. That was my point.
     
  18. Pookie

    Pookie It was a pleasure doing business with you

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    Can you clarify what you meant here? Because it sounds ignorant.
     
  19. Pookie

    Pookie It was a pleasure doing business with you

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    One other interesting point.

    Kapanen has played with both Matthews and Kadri with similar frequency.

    He has 25 points. 21 of which have come with a Center other than Kadri.

    Kasperi Kapanen - Frozen Tools
     
  20. Norade

    Norade Registered User

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    So how did Kadri get 8 assists over that span then?

    Also, Kadri is on pace for a 17 goal, 31 assist, 48 point season while playing on the third line. Yes, he's not scoring at his usual rate, but he's putting up solid second line numbers as your third center. He's literally a top 60 center (he's tied for 55th) in terms of points production this season while being given the 70th most minutes per game. His production is more than fine for the role he's in.

    It's highly unlikely to be his fault if the players on his wing aren't scoring given his production.
     
  21. Pookie

    Pookie It was a pleasure doing business with you

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    Well, we have to look deeper than a summary. Since hockey allows changing on the fly, lines aren’t always static.

    2A came on the PP where Nylander doesn’t play.

    1A came setting up Tavares at EV, other assist to Mathews

    1A came setting up Marner

    1A came 4v4 in OT setting up Kapanen

    That leaves 3A left with his traditional line, presumably with Nylander on the ice.
    Marleau scores twice and Rielly did once. Nylander assisted on 1 of those goals.

    So, of the assists, looks like only 3 were with Nylander on the ice. And Nylander also picked up a point on one of those.
     
  22. Confucius

    Confucius We Can and We Will

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    William 15 games played 1 goal 2 assists
    Marleau last 15 games played 4 goals 1 assists

    William 200 NHL games played 49 goals
    Marleau last 2.5 seasons (64 goals)

    Last year's playoffs, Marleau 4 goals 1 assist, William 1 goal 3 assists.

    Marleau @ 39 years old > [email protected] 22 years old, :laugh:but it is close.

    If both players careers ended today, what possible metric could you use to state William> Marleau ?
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2019
  23. RLF

    RLF Registered User

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    I have no idea what this has to do with what I wrote. Give you a break on what? He looks better with Matthews as a combo than with other players? which I said was obvious.
     
  24. RLF

    RLF Registered User

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    An odd comment for sure.
     
  25. Norade

    Norade Registered User

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    By that same token, shouldn't Nylander also spend time on the ice with players that aren't Kadri? Also, shouldn't an 'elite' player produce his own chances to make his linemates better? Given that his linemates have scored points in the 15 games he's been back, why hasn't he?
     
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