Prediction Contest: Nylander Points Total: 2018-19

[Sweet Leaf]

I feel like showing up to play the Bruins with Willie is like showing up to a gang fight with your little sister.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Besides that, Nylanders production is nowhere close to Marleau's this season... so there is that as well.

Yup, Marleau has the 2nd worst points/60 5v5 on the team. Nylander has thw worst right now. This is Nylander's worst stretch, but this has become normal of Marleau...

 

[LeafFever]

Yup, Marleau has the 2nd worst points/60 on the team. Nylander has thw worst right now. This is Nylander's worst stretch, but this has become normal of Marleau...

Marleau looks done. He's getting way too much TOI. He' s the new Komorov on this team.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

All joking aside, I've been looking at signs the leafs are getting better with Willy's return. I do kind of hate the possession stats being thrown around so I looked for something better.
I found this posting

https://thesportjournal.org/article...t-based-metrics-at-predicting-hockey-success/

The general gist is that goal differentials are more predictive of future wins.
I took a look at the leafs record.
The average goal differential pre-Willy was 1.04. After Willy joined the team, we are talking .53. I am not saying that this is all Willy's fault but for those who are claiming fantastic possession numbers and the team is better, can now understand why many are scheptical.
I plotted a 10 game moving average. The arrow is when Willy started playing. There is some indication that the team is beginning to come out of the hole but I'm not buying the fact that we have been better since Willy came back.
View attachment 174549

Nylanders and Nylander's linemates possession and goal differential stats have been fantastic. They just need to finish.

Your team goal differential stats just shows the team not playing well during 4 game stretch.

 

[LeafFever]

Nylander is worth every penny. Stop judging so fast people. Didn't you learn from the Mitch Marner situation?

 

[RLF]

Nylanders and Nylander's linemates possession and goal differential stats have been fantastic. They just need to finish.

Your team goal differential stats just shows the team not playing well during 4 game stretch.

Nylander has definitely rushed the puck(better as games went on) and is a possession type player, which is great and all, especially if you convert chances. But was Kadri not one of our top if not top CF% and CF% rel players even before Nylander got back?

 

[PromisedLand]

I feel like showing up to play the Bruins with Willie is like showing up to a gang fight with your little sister.

this made LOL so hard

 

[43Kadri43]

All joking aside, I've been looking at signs the leafs are getting better with Willy's return. I do kind of hate the possession stats being thrown around so I looked for something better.
I found this posting

https://thesportjournal.org/article...t-based-metrics-at-predicting-hockey-success/

The general gist is that goal differentials are more predictive of future wins.
I took a look at the leafs record.
The average goal differential pre-Willy was 1.04. After Willy joined the team, we are talking .53. I am not saying that this is all Willy's fault but for those who are claiming fantastic possession numbers and the team is better, can now understand why many are scheptical.
I plotted a 10 game moving average. The arrow is when Willy started playing. There is some indication that the team is beginning to come out of the hole but I'm not buying the fact that we have been better since Willy came back.
View attachment 174549

The issue with goal differentials is not that they’re not descriptive of wins, it’s that they’re not predictive of FUTURE goal differentials.

 

[43Kadri43]

William 15 games played 1 goal 2 assists
Marleau last 15 games played 4 goals 1 assists

William 200 NHL games played 49 goals
Marleau last 2.5 seasons (64 goals)

Last year's playoffs, Marleau 4 goals 1 assist, William 1 goal 3 assists.

Marleau @ 39 years old > William@ 22 years old, but it is close.

If both players careers ended today, what possible metric could you use to state William> Marleau ?

I sincerely hope you’re kidding.

 

[Notsince67]

Nylanders and Nylander's linemates possession and goal differential stats have been fantastic. They just need to finish.

Your team goal differential stats just shows the team not playing well during 4 game stretch.

The point is that the goal differential stats have a higher correlation to winning than shot stats as a team.

 

[43Kadri43]

The point is that the goal differential stats have a higher correlation to winning than shot stats as a team.

Obviously they do. That’s not the issue with goal differential. The issue is that it has virtually no repeatability and therefore isn’t a viable way to look at the true ability of a team or the players that comprise said team

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Yup, Marleau has the 2nd worst points/60 5v5 on the team. Nylander has thw worst right now. This is Nylander's worst stretch, but this has become normal of Marleau...

At even strength his p/60 is higher than Hyman, Kadri, Nylander, and the 4th line.
So he is 6th on the team for forwards at even strength.

 

[Pookie]

By that same token, shouldn't Nylander also spend time on the ice with players that aren't Kadri? Also, shouldn't an 'elite' player produce his own chances to make his linemates better? Given that his linemates have scored points in the 15 games he's been back, why hasn't he?

Oh no question. Nylander absolutely should be producing more. He’s not. That’s on him. And for $7mm he better figure it out soon.

My point is that Kadri doesn’t elevate anyone and is struggling himself. So mixing the two helps neither.

 

[Pookie]

I feel like showing up to play the Bruins with Willie is like showing up to a gang fight with your little sister.

That’s a trick statement.

Leafs wouldn’t show up to a fight.

Babcock’s Self Defense School:

 

[Pookie]

Obviously they do. That’s not the issue with goal differential. The issue is that it has virtually no repeatability and therefore isn’t a viable way to look at the true ability of a team or the players that comprise said team

Well to be factual, neither are weakly success correlated proxies.

 

[Confucius]

I sincerely hope you’re kidding.

stats dont lie as of today so far Marleau has been better than William. Do you guys haver anything else besides, I hope you're kidding?

 

[socko]

I feel like showing up to play the Bruins with Willie is like showing up to a gang fight with your little sister.

Willy got his money. His fight is over. And he won, big time, beat the crap out of his opponent. Had no leverage, and had his opponent screaming like a little sister.

 

[Notsince67]

The issue with goal differentials is not that they’re not descriptive of wins, it’s that they’re not predictive of FUTURE goal differentials.

Why do you think this?
What is your point?

 

[LeafFever]

Willy got his money. His fight is over. And he won, big time, beat the crap out of his opponent. Had no leverage, and had his opponent screaming like a little sister.

So why didn't he sign for 8.5 million per then?

 

[thewave]

The point is that the goal differential stats have a higher correlation to winning than shot stats as a team.

That's the stat I look at for the who is who of hockey.

 

[Notsince67]

Obviously they do. That’s not the issue with goal differential. The issue is that it has virtually no repeatability and therefore isn’t a viable way to look at the true ability of a team or the players that comprise said team

For a forward, I would imaging it has something to do with points. If there is a claim that the forward is doing things that help the team other than goals and assists, then it should show in goal differential trends over time for the team. It looks like the team isn't any better. You could make the claim that the team's deterioration and Willy joining were incidental and that the team would actually be worse without willy, but you have little proof. The paper I posted shows the r^2 fit of shot vs goal differential to future wins. If shots are up and goals are down, you cannot say with any credibility that the team is projected to do better when goal differential is way more predictive.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

For a forward, I would imaging it has something to do with points. If there is a claim that the forward is doing things that help the team other than goals and assists, then it should show in goal differential trends over time for the team. It looks like the team isn't any better. You could make the claim that the team's deterioration and Willy joining were incidental and that the team would actually be worse without willy, but you have little proof. The paper I posted shows the r^2 fit of shot vs goal differential to future wins. If shots are up and goals are down, you cannot say with any credibility that the team is projected to do better when goal differential is way more predictive.

Why can't we say that the team's deterioration and Willy joining are incidental? I mean you've shown nothing to suggest that Nylander is the cause for that?
Expected Goals (xGF%) is the best measure currently for predicting future success (I.e Goal differentials miss out on a ton of stuff, as do normal basic shot metrics).
Nylander leads the team in xGF% at 57%. The Tavares line follows right after him at 55%.

At even strength his p/60 is higher than Hyman, Kadri, Nylander, and the 4th line.
So he is 6th on the team for forwards at even strength.

No ... According to Corsica hockey (Even-strength numbers, not 5v5 numbers like I posted before):
Nylander: 0.61 pts/60
Marleau: 1.15 pts/60
Lindholm
Gauthier
Kadri: 1:.34 pts/60
Brown
Hyman: 1.43 pts/60

On-ice sh%:
Kadri: 5.6% (Very unlucky)
Nylander: 6.4% (Unlucky)
Marleau: 7.4% (Near normal)

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Nylander has definitely rushed the puck(better as games went on) and is a possession type player, which is great and all, especially if you convert chances. But was Kadri not one of our top if not top CF% and CF% rel players even before Nylander got back?

Not entirely sure but here:

Marleau - Kadri - Kapanen: 173 minutes 51.9 CF%, 51 xGF%
Lindholm - Kadri - Brown: 81 minutes 54.5 CF%, 50 xGF%
Marleau - Kadri - Nylander: 61 minutes 60.6 CF%, 59 xGF%

 

[hullsy47]

Not entirely sure but here:

Marleau - Kadri - Kapanen: 173 minutes 51.9 CF%, 51 xGF%
Lindholm - Kadri - Brown: 81 minutes 54.5 CF%, 50 xGF%
Marleau - Kadri - Nylander: 61 minutes 60.6 CF%, 59 xGF%

nylander vs pasternak
how .many points dis pasternak have after 15 games?

 

[rumman]

So why didn't he sign for 8.5 million per then?

he'll never be a 7 mil a year player let alone a 8.5 mil a year. Dubas might be dumb, but he's not stupid.............