Prediction Contest: Nylander Points Total: 2018-19

[Notsince67]

Why can't we say that the team's deterioration and Willy joining are incidental? I mean you've shown nothing to suggest that Nylander is the cause for that?
Expected Goals (xGF%) is the best measure currently for predicting future success (I.e Goal differentials miss out on a ton of stuff, as do normal basic shot metrics).
Nylander leads the team in xGF% at 57%. The Tavares line follows right after him at 55%

My comments are directed to those who said the teams shot differential numbers were better since Willy came on board. There has been plenty of qualitative criticisms of Willys game and there are those who choose a quantitative method to suggest that the team is better as a result. I merely pointed out that the teams most predictive metric of future wins doesnt support that but that it was steadily getting better.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

nylander vs pasternak
how .many points dis pasternak have after 15 games?

'Pasternak' has 0 points in the past 15 games for the Leafs.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

As you can tell from my posts I am not a willy fan. I realize how much skill he has and the opportunity to become an elite player but he has to start showing some guts instead of a yellow streak down his back. He is six feet one inch and 195 pounds of solid muscle. There is no excuse for him to go to his point man only to skate out of the way so he doesn’t have to block a shot. I watch marner who is half his size challenge chara in the corners fighting fir the puck, I see Willy bailing and afraid to go in the corners with chara. Until he can develope a level of compete in his game he will just be a good complimentary piece

 

[authentic]

As you can tell from my posts I am not a willy fan. I realize how much skill he has and the opportunity to become an elite player but he has to start showing some guts instead of a yellow streak down his back. He is six feet one inch and 195 pounds of solid muscle. There is no excuse for him to go to his point man only to skate out of the way so he doesn’t have to block a shot. I watch marner who is half his size challenge chara in the corners fighting fir the puck, I see Willy bailing and afraid to go in the corners with chara. Until he can develope a level of compete in his game he will just be a good complimentary piece

They are both 6 feet but Nylander is bigger and appears to be stronger off the ice. On the ice he sure doesn't seem like it though.

 

[Matthews4Calder]

So weird that people think $7m for willy is bad when we're paying $6.3 to the corpse of Marleau.

Both contracts I didn't like. Marleau was brought in also for his mentoring of the young group but the 6.3 was also given I think due to his years in the league.
Babcock is an idiot when it comes to player usage. He's so stuck in his ways and also favours the veterans. He won't demote Marleau to the 4th line because it's Patrick Marleau. I just don't see how you can do that. Kapanen gets shafted all the time, no PP time yet Marleau is out there all the time. He's slowed down this year a lot and can only imagine what next year brings.

 

[paulhiggins]

They are both 6 feet but Nylander is bigger and appears to be stronger off the ice. On the ice he sure doesn't seem like it though.

I think he remembers what la-la-land felt like and thinks he's one wrong step from being there again. Like what Kaberle changed into before the team realized they needed to trade him.

 

[hullsy47]

My comments are directed to those who said the teams shot differential numbers were better since Willy came on board. There has been plenty of qualitative criticisms of Willys game and there are those who choose a quantitative method to suggest that the team is better as a result. I merely pointed out that the teams most predictive metric of future wins doesnt support that but that it was steadily getting better.

if your not in toronto dubas might get fired by a. board of directors
pasternak = nylander LMAO

 

[rumman]

my guess of 15 points for the year is looking pretty achievable.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

If anybody's wondering why we struggle with this team...

Well.. here it is.

We're paying NYLANDER more than they're paying PASTRNAK.

That's it. The end.

There is no way to compete with a team that can find a way to pay such vastly superior players less than what we pay our mediocre players.

 

[Mr Hockey]

If anybody's wondering why we struggle with this team...

Well.. here it is.

We're paying NYLANDER more than they're paying PASTRNAK.

That's it. The end.

There is no way to compete with a team that can find a way to pay such vastly superior players less than what we pay our mediocre players.

just a beauty of a post.

 

[JerseyMike34]

my guess of 15 points for the year is looking pretty achievable.

At his current pace, he'd have to go on a streak.

 

[MyBudJT]

So weird that people think $7m for willy is bad when we're paying $6.3 to the corpse of Marleau.

Marleau will be a Hall of Famer who is massively outproducing Nylnader. What is so weird?

 

[Faltorvo]

I feel like showing up to play the Bruins with Willie is like showing up to a gang fight with your little sister.

oh man,,,, in my 10 years here this is one of the bast posts ever.

 

[Faltorvo]

So how did Kadri get 8 assists over that span then?

Also, Kadri is on pace for a 17 goal, 31 assist, 48 point season while playing on the third line. Yes, he's not scoring at his usual rate, but he's putting up solid second line numbers as your third center. He's literally a top 60 center (he's tied for 55th) in terms of points production this season while being given the 70th most minutes per game. His production is more than fine for the role he's in.

It's highly unlikely to be his fault if the players on his wing aren't scoring given his production.

i want to add 1 more point,,his production weighted against his cap hit

melanders cap hit is 10 m compared to NKs 4.5m

 

[Duffman955]

Unbelievable.

His play is unbelievable.

It doesn't take an in-shape young athlete, months to get into form.

We are paying this guy $10 million for the same impact as Tyler Ennis.

 

[Faltorvo]

Unbelievable.

His play is unbelievable.

It doesn't take an in-shape young athlete, months to get into form.

We are paying this guy $10 million for the same impact as Tyler Ennis.

ohhh crap

this is the end of days, these are the end times, we agree one something.

 

[Dog]

Unbelievable.

His play is unbelievable.

It doesn't take an in-shape young athlete, months to get into form.

We are paying this guy $10 million for the same impact as Tyler Ennis.

He should of been traded.

 

[Faltorvo]

He should of been traded.

ehhhh,ya i won't argue that

i will say this,,,, he should of never been signed to that deal.

we had 1 shot to show MM/AM that we are not beta simps anddd Dubas failed,,horribly.

MM/AM are going to throat stump us like we have never seen before.

The only strat i see is to dump Melander post july 1 , wait for Point/Rantanen to reset the market and take it from there.

Risk of offer sheets? I say fck em then , bye bye and i will take the 4 1rsts.

Ya know, funny thing, all this blah blah blah about the bruins shipping out seguin/hamilton (due to culture/drive)
and they ended up "the core" on garbage teams and yet the team that "ROYALY fck up by trading them" is 2 points behind us ,funny that.
HUH weird thing also their top cap hit is 7.25m, ours is 11 and 7m and 2 more demanding 11m + next season.

I have to ask

who has the right culture?

 

[Tables of Stats]

Oh no question. Nylander absolutely should be producing more. He’s not. That’s on him. And for $7mm he better figure it out soon.

My point is that Kadri doesn’t elevate anyone and is struggling himself. So mixing the two helps neither.

The stats don't really suggest that Kadri is struggling though. While he isn't on pace for 30+ goals and 60 points like he scored last season, he is on pace for 20 goals and 50 points. Stats which fit well given his decreased role this season compared to last season.

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Unrelated to the above: the current Nylander pointless streak sits at 4 games after the goal which many claimed would lift the monkey from his back. If current trends hold we shouldn't expect to see his next point for within the next 3 games. Using the current trend we can expect 1.5 points per 8 games played from the currently slumping Nylander which projects to ~16 points over an 82 game season. Breaking this down into a more manageable chunk, if the trend holds and Nylander could have 4 points over a quarter season of play.

If Nylander does only score 4 points over a 20 game span, is it fair to think that this has gone beyond a slump and may indicate a deeper problem with William Nylander as an impact hockey player?

 

[hullsy47]

The stats don't really suggest that Kadri is struggling though. While he isn't on pace for 30+ goals and 60 points like he scored last season, he is on pace for 20 goals and 50 points. Stats which fit well given his decreased role this season compared to last season.

-----

Unrelated to the above: the current Nylander pointless streak sits at 4 games after the goal which many claimed would lift the monkey from his back. If current trends hold we shouldn't expect to see his next point for within the next 3 games. Using the current trend we can expect 1.5 points per 8 games played from the currently slumping Nylander which projects to ~16 points over an 82 game season. Breaking this down into a more manageable chunk, if the trend holds and Nylander could have 4 points over a quarter season of play.

If Nylander does only score 4 points over a 20 game span, is it fair to think that this has gone beyond a slump and may indicate a deeper problem with William Nylander as an impact hockey player?

 

[hullsy47]

let's face it he should've never held out
then he should've trained or signed with a swedish team .
he took the leafs for. a ride because they are a cap team
but I mean he doesn't look like he's playing with urgency and he ll have to ramp up his game .
but man hate to be at the board meeting explaining to the heads of Roger's and BELL 17 MILLION by July 1st for 20 points Lol
I'm sure all deals must have approval
maybe I'll call in and ask GORD STELIICK

 

[GoonieFace]

stats dont lie as of today so far Marleau has been better than William. Do you guys haver anything else besides, I hope you're kidding?

These Willy backers are running out of excuses. The guy is a joke right now

 

[Suntouchable13]

let's face it he should've never held out
then he should've trained or signed with a swedish team .
he took the leafs for. a ride because they are a cap team
but I mean he doesn't look like he's playing with urgency and he ll have to ramp up his game .
but man hate to be at the board meeting explaining to the heads of Roger's and BELL 17 MILLION by July 1st for 20 points Lol
I'm sure all deals must have approval
maybe I'll call in and ask GORD STELIICK

But corsi and all that, rabble rabble.

 

[diceman934]

I have no doubt that Willy will produce points at a similar level as he did and likely a little higher. I also have little doubt that he is going to continue to play scared and it is that part of his game that I hope I am wrong.

He has never been a core piece and never will be unless he starts accepting that he needs to take a check to make a play. Let’s hope he does as we need him to be a hockey player if we are going to have some success in the playoffs. Otherwise it is see you later for him.

 

[Pookie]

The stats don't really suggest that Kadri is struggling though. While he isn't on pace for 30+ goals and 60 points like he scored last season, he is on pace for 20 goals and 50 points. Stats which fit well given his decreased role this season compared to last season.

-----

Unrelated to the above: the current Nylander pointless streak sits at 4 games after the goal which many claimed would lift the monkey from his back. If current trends hold we shouldn't expect to see his next point for within the next 3 games. Using the current trend we can expect 1.5 points per 8 games played from the currently slumping Nylander which projects to ~16 points over an 82 game season. Breaking this down into a more manageable chunk, if the trend holds and Nylander could have 4 points over a quarter season of play.

If Nylander does only score 4 points over a 20 game span, is it fair to think that this has gone beyond a slump and may indicate a deeper problem with William Nylander as an impact hockey player?

If Nylander continues to struggle, it would most likely indicate that missing 2 months of NHL hockey makes it hard to catch up.

A comparison could be (ironically) made with Shanahan. Who held out for a little longer than Nylander.

His first 15 back? 3G 2A 5 Points.

The simplest explanation is usually the most appropriate.