Value of: Nylander - Offer sheet

[Halla]

Has to be into the 2 first round pick compensation range for offer sheets.

Leafs match anything less than 8.1 mil over 5 years.

100% agree. 2 potential lotto picks (likely used as bait to land a stud dman) would be what it would take to pry him out of TO

 

[GeauxPreds1]

If you are Arizona you forget Nylander and wait until next year hoping that the Leafs somehow let Matthews become a RFA.

Matthews seems to be the shy type and may not enjoy the scrutiny of TO, he may be unhappy after a year of playing 2C behind the recently signed savior and new captain in Tavares. Matthews grew up in Arizona he might be one of the few that can be enticed with a offer sheet. You offer max term (7 years) and max dollars (20% of Cap or about $16M AAV). That will make TO think about the prospect of making it hard to sign Marner after matching on Matthews.

If they are ever going to sell hockey in Arizona- the local boy is the one to do it.

That is why Leafs have to get Matthews and Marner extended before July 1, 2019

I don't know about giving him that much but I like the idea of Matthew going back to arizona. Maybe he can post a picture of him in some coyotes pjs lol.

 

[Halla]

For sure, I wouldn't count out a huge payday.

I honestly think they all want to win, and are seeing the Leafs all in with drafting and signings. I could see a situation where you have

Matthews at 9.5-10
Marner at 7
Nylander at 6-6.5

These kids want cups in my opinion, but I don't know them, so that's just speculation. I do know Dubas and Co. have been in contact with all of them, they helped sign JT, and JT was assured they would not only keep them, but add on the backend.

Matthews 10.5 (500k more than eichel)
Marner 7 (333k more than pastrnak)
Nylander 6.5 (500k more than Ehlers)

24 mil. add tavares and its 35. andersen,rielly,kadri,dermott, and zaitsev make it 55. 25 mil or so to fill the roster
(and yes, marleaus last year 6.25 hit but only 1.25 real money will get moved to a team looking for a 25g+ vet who they only have to pay a hair above the min)

 

[Ciao]

The way to do it would be to structure it as a two year OS with the first year as 6 million dollars and the second year as 9.75 million. That way if they match they are stuck with a poison pill qualifying offer in two years (when they will really need the cap space) and you would only lose a 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rd if they choose not to match it. It would suck having to qualify him yourself in two years but getting him for such a discounted price would make it worth it I think.

I don’t see him signing it though, Toronto is a great place to be right now. Only way I could see it is if he wants to be a Center, because if he signs for the next 8 years in Toronto he’s basically accepting that he’s a career winger.

Good luck getting Nylander to buy into a two-year deal.

 

[Voodoo Child]

Remember kids, anything less than 7 and you're doing the Leafs a favor...

 

[Oddbob]

Nylander is going to sign the 0X0 offersheet, because these never happen anymore!

 

[thadd]

6.5 million. They could try 7 or 7.5 million and wait for the leafs to accept/decline. Of course nylander has to sign the offer sheet.

That's the part that everyone always forgets about. I wish we'd get to know every time a player turned down an offer sheet. Bet it happens tons.

 

[QuietContrarian]

Agreed, it's not happening, and is silly

Odds of that actually happening are like .0000000000000000000000001%

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Remember kids, anything less than 7 and you're doing the Leafs a favor...

Your post really doesn't make much sense. If someone got Nylander to sign an offersheet that's within a range low enough to be "doing the Leafs a favor", why wouldn't Toronto have already signed him for that amount themselves?

Unless you're suggesting Nylander would rather be elsewhere and would sign an offersheet with another club for less than what he's demanding from the Leafs...

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

So you believe Toronto would match if they offered 7.6 x 8?

You cant offer 8 years on an offer sheet, max of 7 and the cap hit is calculated based on the total value of the deal by a max of 5 years so the cap hit becomes (7.6x7)/5 so it would return 4 first round picks. If a bad team made that offer sheet (and that offer sheet alone would signal it was a really bad management group) the leafs would jump at the opportunity and offer to host any of the upcoming NHL drafts because there would be a decent chance we were gonna pick first over all.

If that happens Tor needs to build a statue for Dubas instantly.

My guess is

AM: 11
Marner: 9
Nylander: 8.5

Curious what you think the comparables are for marner and nylander.

 

[BBB24]

How so?

Gun violence is lower in Canada, plus Toronto is a city bigger than Chicago, and is very safe.
We don't have a gun culture similar to the USA
Ghettos and poverty in Toronto are nowhere near the bad parts of many American cities, plus we have more social programs to help. I also say this as an American and Canadian citizen.
I think our players love it here, and have stated so, so why doubt them.
They all seem to want to win first before anything

Nothing is delusional, but if you say so.

Am I suppose to follow the narrative that our players will leave, or all cost 11 million, and Toronto has bullets flying all over? that is more satisfactory?

Chicago had a lower number killed by gun last year 650 murders
Toronto had 39 gun murders

So I am not sure what you are reading lol but cool story

There were 600+ shootings inToronto in the Past year, if you consider that safe I am not sure what you would consider dangerous.

 

[DatDude44]

Keller> Nylander

 

[Flameshomer]

Jankowski and kylington for nylander? Way cheaper for the leads and jankowski would very likely monopolize on great matchups offensively while providing a great defensive+ faceoff game. Plus he's another Toronto boy (and nylander was born in Calgary!)
Kylington and liljegren would make a really interesting all Swede pair

 

[meefer]

It's an interesting question, what will Nylander sign for? I'll wait and see what occurs because while I have my opinion, it ain't worth diddly when put up against the braintrust that Toronto has in it's front office and the variables that the Nylander group can bring to the table.

 

[DanM]

There were 600+ shootings inToronto in the Past year, if you consider that safe I am not sure what you would consider dangerous.

375 shootings last year, so I am also wondering where you get your info, over 3550 shooting occurrences in Chicago.

But any shooting is obviously bad, but Toronto is super safe compared to other major cities

 

[Liferleafer]

There were 600+ shootings inToronto in the Past year, if you consider that safe I am not sure what you would consider dangerous.

Fake news. As i already posted earlier....359 last year.
Toronto on pace for another ‘Year of the Gun’ | The Star

But even if 600 were real...again, it isn't, Chicago already has over double that this year alone at 1300+.

 

[Doyoulikeapples*]

I just remember hearing NHL reporters talking about how McDavid’s contract is the comparable for Matthews when McDavid signed. Obviously Matthews isn’t McDavid, but with the cap increase, he could get 12 barring a bad season.

Then again, if I was Matthews I would take 5 million a year to play with that team and win cups.

Thanks to Tavares signing for 11, Matthews will get no more than that and likely less.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Keller> Nylander

O
Forgot he exist

 

[gwh]

8.1m x 4.

Reasons:
- 8.1mil is the upper limit for draft picks 1st, 2nd, 3rd.
- 4 years takes Nylander straight to UFA, which is attractive to Nylander and annoying to TOR
- Nylander is probably looking at 6mil deals (Ehlers, forsberg, Pastrnak), so this is a hefty 2mil overpayment if TOR matches. Then you can sheet Marner the year after.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Why do people think bottom 5-10 teams want to throw away multiple first round picks in an offer sheet? why do people think teams are going to offer sheet in general when it never happens? why do people think teams randomly have a massive urge to spite the Leafs for no reason whatsoever? three questions I wonder every day when I read the silly people on this board.

Seeing the moves Arizona did the past two seasons my guess is they’re trying to win “get into the playoff” next season. Wouldn’t be surprised if they, in fact, offered an offer ahert to Nylander

 

[Liferleafer]

8.1m x 4.

Reasons:
- 8.1mil is the upper limit for draft picks 1st, 2nd, 3rd.
- 4 years takes Nylander straight to UFA, which is attractive to Nylander and annoying to TOR
- Nylander is probably looking at 6mil deals (Ehlers, forsberg, Pastrnak), so this is a hefty 2mil overpayment if TOR matches. Then you can sheet Marner the year after.

Unless he gets injured and costs himself 3 years of pay....

People understand that the player actually needs to sign an offer sheet...right? Do folks think the Leafs management didn't speak to these young players before signing Tavares?

 

[sd1976]

Mitch Marner 30 % better than Pastrnak- on blue and white acid yes

I think you missed the point...

 

[BM14]

8.1m x 4.

Reasons:
- 8.1mil is the upper limit for draft picks 1st, 2nd, 3rd.
- 4 years takes Nylander straight to UFA, which is attractive to Nylander and annoying to TOR
- Nylander is probably looking at 6mil deals (Ehlers, forsberg, Pastrnak), so this is a hefty 2mil overpayment if TOR matches. Then you can sheet Marner the year after.

At which point Nylander bolts back to Toronto on a sweetheart UFA deal and rejoins the offensive juggernaut, with 2 Dmen that were drafted with his picks.

 

[3074326]

Fake news. As i already posted earlier....359 last year.
Toronto on pace for another ‘Year of the Gun’ | The Star

But even if 600 were real...again, it isn't, Chicago already has over double that this year alone at 1300+.

What does this have to do with anything? NHL players aren't hanging out in the slums of cities where these numbers accumulate due to gangs and drug violence. Has no bearing on anything NHL related.

 

[I am I]

There were 600+ shootings inToronto in the Past year, if you consider that safe I am not sure what you would consider dangerous.

Toronto the fourth safest city in the world and safest in North America?

There are only 3 states in the US with a lower homicide rate than the city of Toronto: Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire.