Value of: Nylander - Offer sheet

[Liferleafer]

So you believe Toronto would match if they offered 7.6 x 8?

If Kane is worth 7 million....and JVR is worth 7 million...you don't think the Leafs would match 7.6 for Nylander?

 

[DanM]

They would match.

If people want to play the offer sheet game (which won't happen) the Leafs can also play it (which they won't) and can really put a dent in another organization.

 

[Meeqs]

For sure, I wouldn't count out a huge payday.

I honestly think they all want to win, and are seeing the Leafs all in with drafting and signings. I could see a situation where you have

Matthews at 9.5-10
Marner at 7
Nylander at 6-6.5

These kids want cups in my opinion, but I don't know them, so that's just speculation. I do know Dubas and Co. have been in contact with all of them, they helped sign JT, and JT was assured they would not only keep them, but add on the backend.

If that happens Tor needs to build a statue for Dubas instantly.

My guess is

AM: 11
Marner: 9
Nylander: 8.5

 

[Meeqs]

So you believe Toronto would match if they offered 7.6 x 8?

They'd crack up and send you a thank you card. You'd have to offer over 9 before they'd walk away, if not 10

 

[Liferleafer]

If people want to play the offer sheet game (which won't happen) the Leafs can also play it (which they won't) and can really put a dent in another organization.

Exactly. The premise of this thread is to offer sheet a player just to screw another team? People realize at some point, these GM's need to be able to work together....right?

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

If Kane is worth 7 million....and JVR is worth 7 million...you don't think the Leafs would match 7.6 for Nylander?

That wasn’t what I was implying. I was getting to the point that that’s more than they would likely get him for if they signed him as an RFA themselves and it’s more term than I would think they want. Not to mention UFA money and RFA money is totally different. If Kane was 20, and and RFA, he would’ve gotten 5 million.

 

[DanM]

If that happens Tor needs to build a statue for Dubas instantly.

My guess is

AM: 11
Marner: 9
Nylander: 8.5

Honestly, I wouldn't put it past him. I believe they have had contact all through the JT talks, I believe they want to win first, and I think the players see this as a TOP organization to do it with.

 

[DanM]

Exactly. The premise of this thread is to offer sheet a player just to screw another team? People realize at some point, these GM's need to be able to work together....right?

Exactly, which is why this thread shut be shut, because it is full of stupidity

 

[Filthy Dangles]

I think the 7-8M range is where you start cooking with fire where Willy might sign one and Toronto might second guess matching one for him based on the cap crunch they will experience in the coming years.

 

[Liferleafer]

That wasn’t what I was implying. I was getting to the point that that’s more than they would likely get him for if they signed him as an RFA themselves and it’s more term than I would think they want. Not to mention UFA money and RFA money is totally different. If Kane was 20, and and RFA, he would’ve gotten 5 million.

It's possibly 1 million more than they hope, but i don't think they have an issue with term.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

They'd crack up and send you a thank you card. You'd have to offer over 9 before they'd walk away, if not 10

Are you confident about that? You do know the leafs better than I do.

 

[Meeqs]

Honestly, I wouldn't put it past him. I believe they have had contact all through the JT talks, I believe they want to win first, and I think the players see this as a TOP organization to do it with.

We will see, I really like Dubas a lot as a GM. I wish my team would have poached him before he stayed with Tor. Either way it will purely depend on the kids and what they want.

Imo AM is better than JT so I'm not sure he will be too willing to make much less and Marner will want a % of what AM gets at a minimum. Same with Nylander. It be really great for Tor and awful for everyone else should the Kids all decide to take home town discounts

 

[Pelle31]

If that happens Tor needs to build a statue for Dubas instantly.

My guess is

AM: 11
Marner: 9
Nylander: 8.5

That's probably pretty close to their market value so if Dubas can get them to sign for less than those figures then each player is taking a "hometown" discount in hopes of a possible Stanley Cup otherwise the Leafs will run into a cap crunch down the road.

 

[The List Of Jericho]

He could top out higher I believe, I just can’t imagjne how a team can afford those 4. Dubas is a smart guy though I’m sure he has a plan. Could someone lay out the salaries for me?

How I think it will play out:

Tavares 11 million
Matthews 11 or 12
Marner 7-7.5
Nylander 6.5-7

The Leafs will look at the Pasta contract when it comes to Marner and Nylander as a comparable.

 

[DanM]

We will see, I really like Dubas a lot as a GM. I wish my team would have poached him before he stayed with Tor. Either way it will purely depend on the kids and what they want.

Imo AM is better than JT so I'm not sure he will be too willing to make much less and Marner will want a % of what AM gets at a minimum. Same with Nylander. It be really great for Tor and awful for everyone else should the Kids all decide to take home town discounts

Agreed, we have set ourselves up well going forward. I don't know for sure if they take a big HT discount, but I could see a million of 1.5 shaved off the AVV at least, which helps.

I would be ecstatic if they decided to take a good cut in order to keep winning and bringing in talent

 

[StreetHawk]

How much money can be reasonable to offer Nylander as RFA? I am pointing at Arizona. They have plenty of prospects and it won´t hurt to lose picks. Nylander can become their best player and first class star.

The leafs have the cap room to match this year. So, they wouldn’t let him go. Worst case is that they match and deal him a year later.

Pointless to do that if a team has the cap room and money.

 

[b in vancouver]

Has to be into the 2 first round pick compensation range for offer sheets.

Leafs match anything less than 8.1 mil over 5 years.

Not just to match - but wondering if Leaf fans think that's what he'll command? From the outside, that seems awfully pricey for him. He might eventually earn that salary but that's a pretty big 'might'.
I'd think adding Tavares should make your kids slightly more affordable as there won't be as much of an uproar if you trade any of them now and gives the Leafs another marquee player to market - taking away a bit of Nylander, Marner and Matthews leverage.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

How I think it will play out:

Tavares 11 million
Matthews 11 or 12
Marner 7-7.5
Nylander 6.5-7

The Leafs will look at the Pasta contract when it comes to Marner and Nylander as a comparable.

That is a good comparable for them, Boston got a steal on that deal. I just thought I remembered a reporter saying that Marner was asking for eichel type money.

 

[Haatley]

Can

Won't

 

[Meeqs]

Are you condifendt about that? You do know the leafs better than I do.

Its not just about the leafs, its about the entire NHL. Here are some reasons offer sheets never work:

-The NHL has 2 sides, the owners/gms and the players. Contract negotiations as is are a huge struggle between the two sides (hence all the lock outs). OS cause GMs to pit themselves up against each other at the players benefit, which makes no sense for them as it only hurts their side. Its because of this that there is an unwritten rule that says you DO NOT OFFERSHEET and any GM who does will be blackballed by all the others and wont find future work in the league. They take it very seriously

-GMs will pretty much always match it out of EGO and power positioning. Others like Lou have also said if you OS one of their guys they will OS one of yours every year for a decade. It makes them look bad.

-Once we get past all the political aspects of the game the system itself is designed not to work. In order to get a team to walk away you will need to massively overpay the player for what they are worth. Teams already overpay guys like crazy no problem in UFA so you would have to go seriously overboard for them to just let you have them. If we take Nylander for example and a team has the cap space and is willing to give up those picks to get a player it is incredibly likely that you could simply give up less in a trade to get someone equivalent who would be on a cost efficient deal.

There is no circumstance around the league in which an offersheet has ever made sense. You get a marginal gain at best and a huge detriment towards your future opportunities.

 

[easton117]

Exactly. The premise of this thread is to offer sheet a player just to screw another team? People realize at some point, these GM's need to be able to work together....right?

I think this is overstated sometimes.

Technically it is correct. But some gms won’t even make deals inside their own division, essentially cutting off 25% of their partners. What is one or two more at that point? Hell you offer sheet a guy and you might even make a few new friends.

Personally I think it’s idiotic worrying about seeing a former player 4 times a year but to each their own

 

[DanM]

Its not just about the leafs, its about the entire NHL. Here are some reasons offer sheets never work:

-The NHL has 2 sides, the owners/gms and the players. Contract negotiations as is are a huge struggle between the two sides (hence all the lock outs). OS cause GMs to pit themselves up against each other at the players benefit, which makes no sense for them as it only hurts their side. Its because of this that there is an unwritten rule that says you DO NOT OFFERSHEET and any GM who does will be blackballed by all the others and wont find future work in the league. They take it very seriously

-GMs will pretty much always match it out of EGO and power positioning. Others like Lou have also said if you OS one of their guys they will OS one of yours every year for a decade. It makes them look bad.

-Once we get past all the political aspects of the game the system itself is designed not to work. In order to get a team to walk away you will need to massively overpay the player for what they are worth. Teams already overpay guys like crazy no problem in UFA so you would have to go seriously overboard for them to just let you have them. If we take Nylander for example and a team has the cap space and is willing to give up those picks to get a player it is incredibly likely that you could simply give up less in a trade to get someone equivalent who would be on a cost efficient deal.

There is no circumstance around the league in which an offersheet has ever made sense. You get a marginal gain at best and a huge detriment towards your future opportunities.

This is an excellent post, and finally somebody in here that understands the game

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Exactly. The premise of this thread is to offer sheet a player just to screw another team? People realize at some point, these GM's need to be able to work together....right?

That bein said, leaf fans made a lot of offer sheet threads bout lindholm and manson

Gets old huh

 

[JetsHomer]

If people want to play the offer sheet game (which won't happen) the Leafs can also play it (which they won't) and can really put a dent in another organization.

Leafs don’t have the cap space to be offering offer sheets

 

[CDN24]

How much money can be reasonable to offer Nylander as RFA? I am pointing at Arizona. They have plenty of prospects and it won´t hurt to lose picks. Nylander can become their best player and first class star.

If you are Arizona you forget Nylander and wait until next year hoping that the Leafs somehow let Matthews become a RFA.

Matthews seems to be the shy type and may not enjoy the scrutiny of TO, he may be unhappy after a year of playing 2C behind the recently signed savior and new captain in Tavares. Matthews grew up in Arizona he might be one of the few that can be enticed with a offer sheet. You offer max term (7 years) and max dollars (20% of Cap or about $16M AAV). That will make TO think about the prospect of making it hard to sign Marner after matching on Matthews.

If they are ever going to sell hockey in Arizona- the local boy is the one to do it.

That is why Leafs have to get Matthews and Marner extended before July 1, 2019