The NHLPA better wake up to reality soon.
Thats been the PA’s issue for decades, instead of trying to negotiate and compromise on better terms they pout, whine, and eventually cave. Labor peace could’ve been a lot easier in the past had they been willing to give and take in prior CBA issues.
NHLPA is sticking with 72% or nothing. NHL better start soon if they want to minimize losses.
These tweets sure feel like every other labor stoppage the NHL has blessed us with, don't they?
"This next week will be really important"
"Sides aren't talking"
"Owners/players feel the players/owners won't be willing to lose the season"
Personally, I think trying to make any season plans at all is nonsensical at this point. Any start date you come up with is fairy dust and wishful thinking. Nobody knows which teams can play or where. Nobody can predict what exact path the virus is going to take, including when/if/how effective any of the competing vaccines will be.
NHLPA is sticking with 72% or nothing. NHL better start soon if they want to minimize losses.
Okay searching for someone smarter than me here (shouldn't be hard) to help with the real numbers.
Current salary cap of $81.5M is a working of a HRR structure of ~$5.1B
Players entitled to 50% of $5.1B or $2.55B
PA agreed to 10% deferral with a cap of 20% escrow = $1.8B in player salaries for 2020-21.
The 10% deferred salary is guaranteed to be paid out to these players/contracts BUT not as a whole against future 50% of HRR in future years.
The 20% escrow has/will be gone/lost to these players/contracts if/when the revenue is not generated this year.
Looking at this season, while we certainly cannot tie HRR directly to number of games played, for my purpose I'll use it directional. The original $5.1B for 82 games is $61M per game. If a 48 game season generated $61M per game, than the new HRR is ~$3.0B, this means players can get $1.5B.
It would put them in escrow debt another $0.3B if they stick to the current 72% agreement.
So the current NHL vs PA argument is on when that $0.3B will be paid to players and/or then paid back to the league via future escrow.
A 60 game season gets them closer to a projected $3.6B HRR or $1.8B player pay.
Now of course the HRR evaluations are probably incredibly overstated. With the league mentioning ticket revenue is still close to 50% of HRR. Every dollar under will come out of future players pay.
sorry disappoint as it is unlikely I’m smarter than you. But I think I caught discussion here about why escrow is so high and it was because the cap ceiling doesn’t pivot on expected HRR, it is the cap midpoint, because in theory not all teams are spending to the cap. Thus with a midpoint of $70.1m, the target HRR would be closer to $4.35B. In reality salary expenditure tends to be above midpoint on average, hence growing escrow clawbacks.
This has been a true statement for much of the history of the NHLPA. That includes the Bob Goodenow era. Fehr has been "better" but still routinely f***s up getting the most meaningful stuff for the stupidest gains.They really need a new NHLPA exec person Fehr has done little to help the union.
If the debt after '25-26 is either under $125 million or over $250 million, it's carried over and any new agreement can decide how it gets retired. If it's in-between the two, there's an extension year for '26-27 that will purportedly take care of the difference on an escrow cap of 9%. [Spoiler: if they get to that point, a maximum 9% escrow rate isn't going to retire the debt.]Edit: confirmed the MOU does indeed state any debt carryover is immediately due in the first season of the next CBA and escrow % will be as high as required to reduce the debt to zero.
Players are always going to try and maximize near term gains for their side and worry about future issues later. Their income is not as guaranteed or secure as the owners', especially for older or fringe players who may not get that next contract (and therefore future terms do not really apply to them).If the debt after '25-26 is either under $125 million or over $250 million, it's carried over and any new agreement can decide how it gets retired. If it's in-between the two, there's an extension year for '26-27 that will purportedly take care of the difference on an escrow cap of 9%. [Spoiler: if they get to that point, a maximum 9% escrow rate isn't going to retire the debt.]
IMO they better start thinking seriously about how they're going to deal with whatever escrow debt remains after the expiration of this CBA, because the owners aren't going to let that hang out there forever for free and yearly escrow caps increase the likelihood that it happens and that it's over $250 million. [I'm still tinkering with formulas to make a semi-educated guess on this, eventually I'll get serious about coming up with something but I think it requires having more concrete ideas about what the starting point is for everything.]
Here is what to expect time frame wise
Week of November 30 to Dec 4th - small talk to get things back on track
Week of Dec 7 to Dec 11th - ongoing talks - back and forth as will be reported by the "insiders"
Week of Dec 13 to Dec 18th - reports of a deal getting close and articles written by the insiders of what the deal is but still working out the "details"
Week of December 20 - December 25th - ( before Christmas like Dec 20 to Dec 23) official deal announced
Week of December 27 to Jan 1 - - 7 teams that did not make the playoffs get a extra week of camp
Week of Jan 4 - All Teams now in Training camp
Jan 15th to April 30 - 48 game regular - season - 48 games in 100 days. ( this is what they did in 2005 and 2013)
May 1 to May 15th - 2 week buffer to play any games that were postponed because of Covid 19 - ( if no games postponed start playoffs right away and they are done by the end of June )
May 15th to July 15th - NHL Playoffs ( if they need to make up games)
July 22 - Summer Olympic games on NBC start on July 22
Missed one thing, 14 day quarantine for out of country players Coming to their home team after December 27
Most of the players are already in there markets
Here is what to expect time frame wise
Week of November 30 to Dec 4th - small talk to get things back on track
Week of Dec 7 to Dec 11th - ongoing talks - back and forth as will be reported by the "insiders"
Week of Dec 13 to Dec 18th - reports of a deal getting close and articles written by the insiders of what the deal is but still working out the "details"
Week of December 20 - December 25th - ( before Christmas like Dec 20 to Dec 23) official deal announced
Week of December 27 to Jan 1 - - 7 teams that did not make the playoffs get a extra week of camp
Week of Jan 4 - All Teams now in Training camp
Jan 15th to April 30 - 48 game regular - season - 48 games in 100 days. ( this is what they did in 2005 and 2013)
May 1 to May 15th - 2 week buffer to play any games that were postponed because of Covid 19 - ( if no games postponed start playoffs right away and they are done by the end of June )
May 15th to July 15th - NHL Playoffs ( if they need to make up games)
July 22 - Summer Olympic games on NBC start on July 22
Tik toc tik toc...
We're almost in December. By this point I find it extremely unlikely there'll be any games by January 1 or anywhere close to it.