NHL 2020-2021 season start/schedule

DaBadGuy7

Registered User
Dec 28, 2004
2,434
1,145
Newark,NJ
The NHLPA better wake up to reality soon.

Thats been the PA’s issue for decades, instead of trying to negotiate and compromise on better terms they pout, whine, and eventually cave. Labor peace could’ve been a lot easier in the past had they been willing to give and take in prior CBA issues.
 

gstommylee

Registered User
Jan 31, 2012
14,400
2,742
Thats been the PA’s issue for decades, instead of trying to negotiate and compromise on better terms they pout, whine, and eventually cave. Labor peace could’ve been a lot easier in the past had they been willing to give and take in prior CBA issues.

They really need a new NHLPA exec person Fehr has done little to help the union.
 

Yog S'loth

Registered User
Sep 7, 2005
2,776
1,930
Southern California
These tweets sure feel like every other labor stoppage the NHL has blessed us with, don't they?

"This next week will be really important"
"Sides aren't talking"
"Owners/players feel the players/owners won't be willing to lose the season"

Personally, I think trying to make any season plans at all is nonsensical at this point. Any start date you come up with is fairy dust and wishful thinking. Nobody knows which teams can play or where. Nobody can predict what exact path the virus is going to take, including when/if/how effective any of the competing vaccines will be.
 

gstommylee

Registered User
Jan 31, 2012
14,400
2,742
These tweets sure feel like every other labor stoppage the NHL has blessed us with, don't they?

"This next week will be really important"
"Sides aren't talking"
"Owners/players feel the players/owners won't be willing to lose the season"

Personally, I think trying to make any season plans at all is nonsensical at this point. Any start date you come up with is fairy dust and wishful thinking. Nobody knows which teams can play or where. Nobody can predict what exact path the virus is going to take, including when/if/how effective any of the competing vaccines will be.

who says there aren't going to be any teams not playing... Its a guarantee there will be a canadian team only division
 

mouser

Business of Hockey
Jul 13, 2006
29,284
12,583
South Mountain
who says there aren't going to be any teams not playing... Its a guarantee there will be a canadian team only division

In case you haven't been following the Canadian COVID stats, they have skyrocketed the past month.

Capture.JPG
 
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Flukeshot

Briere Activate!
Sponsor
Feb 19, 2004
5,153
1,710
Brampton, Ont
Okay searching for someone smarter than me here (shouldn't be hard) to help with the real numbers.

Current salary cap of $81.5M is a working of a HRR structure of ~$5.1B

Players entitled to 50% of $5.1B or $2.55B

PA agreed to 10% deferral with a cap of 20% escrow = $1.8B in player salaries for 2020-21.

The 10% deferred salary is guaranteed to be paid out to these players/contracts BUT not as a whole against future 50% of HRR in future years.

The 20% escrow has/will be gone/lost to these players/contracts if/when the revenue is not generated this year.

Looking at this season, while we certainly cannot tie HRR directly to number of games played, for my purpose I'll use it directional. The original $5.1B for 82 games is $61M per game. If a 48 game season generated $61M per game, than the new HRR is ~$3.0B, this means players can get $1.5B.

It would put them in escrow debt another $0.3B if they stick to the current 72% agreement.

So the current NHL vs PA argument is on when that $0.3B will be paid to players and/or then paid back to the league via future escrow.

A 60 game season gets them closer to a projected $3.6B HRR or $1.8B player pay.

Now of course the HRR evaluations are probably incredibly overstated. With the league mentioning ticket revenue is still close to 50% of HRR. Every dollar under will come out of future players pay.
 

BoredBrandonPridham

Registered User
Aug 9, 2011
7,573
4,061
Okay searching for someone smarter than me here (shouldn't be hard) to help with the real numbers.

Current salary cap of $81.5M is a working of a HRR structure of ~$5.1B

Players entitled to 50% of $5.1B or $2.55B

PA agreed to 10% deferral with a cap of 20% escrow = $1.8B in player salaries for 2020-21.

The 10% deferred salary is guaranteed to be paid out to these players/contracts BUT not as a whole against future 50% of HRR in future years.

The 20% escrow has/will be gone/lost to these players/contracts if/when the revenue is not generated this year.

Looking at this season, while we certainly cannot tie HRR directly to number of games played, for my purpose I'll use it directional. The original $5.1B for 82 games is $61M per game. If a 48 game season generated $61M per game, than the new HRR is ~$3.0B, this means players can get $1.5B.

It would put them in escrow debt another $0.3B if they stick to the current 72% agreement.

So the current NHL vs PA argument is on when that $0.3B will be paid to players and/or then paid back to the league via future escrow.

A 60 game season gets them closer to a projected $3.6B HRR or $1.8B player pay.

Now of course the HRR evaluations are probably incredibly overstated. With the league mentioning ticket revenue is still close to 50% of HRR. Every dollar under will come out of future players pay.

sorry disappoint as it is unlikely I’m smarter than you. But I think I caught discussion here about why escrow is so high and it was because the cap ceiling doesn’t pivot on expected HRR, it is the cap midpoint, because in theory not all teams are spending to the cap. Thus with a midpoint of $70.1m, the target HRR would be closer to $4.35B. In reality salary expenditure tends to be above midpoint on average, hence growing escrow clawbacks.
 

Ernie

Registered User
Aug 3, 2004
12,759
2,157
sorry disappoint as it is unlikely I’m smarter than you. But I think I caught discussion here about why escrow is so high and it was because the cap ceiling doesn’t pivot on expected HRR, it is the cap midpoint, because in theory not all teams are spending to the cap. Thus with a midpoint of $70.1m, the target HRR would be closer to $4.35B. In reality salary expenditure tends to be above midpoint on average, hence growing escrow clawbacks.

Don't shortchange yourself, you are right. Or you were right. The current cap is based on last years numbers. Moving forward the cap will remain flat until revenues recover, then will rise by $1m per year until all the escrow is paid off. After that the cap will increase but with more complicated lagging formula that will aim to eliminate escrow altogether.
 
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Ted Hoffman

The other Rick Zombo
Dec 15, 2002
28,855
8,110
They really need a new NHLPA exec person Fehr has done little to help the union.
This has been a true statement for much of the history of the NHLPA. That includes the Bob Goodenow era. Fehr has been "better" but still routinely f***s up getting the most meaningful stuff for the stupidest gains.

At least he doesn't do something like pull money out of the union's coffers by floating his brother into an important-sounding, fairly do-nothing job for a couple million dollars that ......... oh, wait - he is doing that. Never mind.
 
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Ted Hoffman

The other Rick Zombo
Dec 15, 2002
28,855
8,110
Edit: confirmed the MOU does indeed state any debt carryover is immediately due in the first season of the next CBA and escrow % will be as high as required to reduce the debt to zero.
If the debt after '25-26 is either under $125 million or over $250 million, it's carried over and any new agreement can decide how it gets retired. If it's in-between the two, there's an extension year for '26-27 that will purportedly take care of the difference on an escrow cap of 9%. [Spoiler: if they get to that point, a maximum 9% escrow rate isn't going to retire the debt.]

IMO they better start thinking seriously about how they're going to deal with whatever escrow debt remains after the expiration of this CBA, because the owners aren't going to let that hang out there forever for free and yearly escrow caps increase the likelihood that it happens and that it's over $250 million. [I'm still tinkering with formulas to make a semi-educated guess on this, eventually I'll get serious about coming up with something but I think it requires having more concrete ideas about what the starting point is for everything.]
 
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Former Ladder

Thanks Noob Noob
Dec 31, 2013
1,491
56
United States
If the debt after '25-26 is either under $125 million or over $250 million, it's carried over and any new agreement can decide how it gets retired. If it's in-between the two, there's an extension year for '26-27 that will purportedly take care of the difference on an escrow cap of 9%. [Spoiler: if they get to that point, a maximum 9% escrow rate isn't going to retire the debt.]

IMO they better start thinking seriously about how they're going to deal with whatever escrow debt remains after the expiration of this CBA, because the owners aren't going to let that hang out there forever for free and yearly escrow caps increase the likelihood that it happens and that it's over $250 million. [I'm still tinkering with formulas to make a semi-educated guess on this, eventually I'll get serious about coming up with something but I think it requires having more concrete ideas about what the starting point is for everything.]
Players are always going to try and maximize near term gains for their side and worry about future issues later. Their income is not as guaranteed or secure as the owners', especially for older or fringe players who may not get that next contract (and therefore future terms do not really apply to them).

While thinking 3-5 years ahead is smart for the collective PA, I do not think they would ever look at it that way.
 

canuckfan75

Registered User
Jan 14, 2014
2,369
884
Here is what to expect time frame wise

Week of November 30 to Dec 4th - small talk to get things back on track

Week of Dec 7 to Dec 11th - ongoing talks - back and forth as will be reported by the "insiders"

Week of Dec 13 to Dec 18th - reports of a deal getting close and articles written by the insiders of what the deal is but still working out the "details"

Week of December 20 - December 25th - ( before Christmas like Dec 20 to Dec 23) official deal announced

Week of December 27 to Jan 1 - - 7 teams that did not make the playoffs get a extra week of camp

Week of Jan 4 - All Teams now in Training camp

Jan 15th to April 30 - 48 game regular - season - 48 games in 100 days. ( this is what they did in 2005 and 2013)

May 1 to May 15th - 2 week buffer to play any games that were postponed because of Covid 19 - ( if no games postponed start playoffs right away and they are done by the end of June )

May 15th to July 15th - NHL Playoffs ( if they need to make up games)

July 22 - Summer Olympic games on NBC start on July 22
 
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Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
22,237
10,788
Here is what to expect time frame wise

Week of November 30 to Dec 4th - small talk to get things back on track

Week of Dec 7 to Dec 11th - ongoing talks - back and forth as will be reported by the "insiders"

Week of Dec 13 to Dec 18th - reports of a deal getting close and articles written by the insiders of what the deal is but still working out the "details"

Week of December 20 - December 25th - ( before Christmas like Dec 20 to Dec 23) official deal announced

Week of December 27 to Jan 1 - - 7 teams that did not make the playoffs get a extra week of camp

Week of Jan 4 - All Teams now in Training camp

Jan 15th to April 30 - 48 game regular - season - 48 games in 100 days. ( this is what they did in 2005 and 2013)

May 1 to May 15th - 2 week buffer to play any games that were postponed because of Covid 19 - ( if no games postponed start playoffs right away and they are done by the end of June )

May 15th to July 15th - NHL Playoffs ( if they need to make up games)

July 22 - Summer Olympic games on NBC start on July 22

Missed one thing, 14 day quarantine for out of country players Coming to their home team after December 27
 

hockeyguy0022

Registered User
Feb 20, 2016
346
176
I told you they wouldn't be starting until late feb, march, if at all.

If there's no signs of life by the last week in January, it's a write off for the season.

The world junior announcement was the thing that made it obvious they have no intention of starting in Jan.
 

hockeyguy0022

Registered User
Feb 20, 2016
346
176
Here is what to expect time frame wise

Week of November 30 to Dec 4th - small talk to get things back on track

Week of Dec 7 to Dec 11th - ongoing talks - back and forth as will be reported by the "insiders"

Week of Dec 13 to Dec 18th - reports of a deal getting close and articles written by the insiders of what the deal is but still working out the "details"

Week of December 20 - December 25th - ( before Christmas like Dec 20 to Dec 23) official deal announced

Week of December 27 to Jan 1 - - 7 teams that did not make the playoffs get a extra week of camp

Week of Jan 4 - All Teams now in Training camp

Jan 15th to April 30 - 48 game regular - season - 48 games in 100 days. ( this is what they did in 2005 and 2013)

May 1 to May 15th - 2 week buffer to play any games that were postponed because of Covid 19 - ( if no games postponed start playoffs right away and they are done by the end of June )

May 15th to July 15th - NHL Playoffs ( if they need to make up games)

July 22 - Summer Olympic games on NBC start on July 22



So Wheres Edmonton going? Red deer? Is San Jose renovations done?
 

Acesolid

The Illusive Bettman
Sep 21, 2010
2,531
319
Québec
Tik toc tik toc...

We're almost in December. By this point I find it extremely unlikely there'll be any games by January 1 or anywhere close to it.
 
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Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
22,237
10,788
Tik toc tik toc...

We're almost in December. By this point I find it extremely unlikely there'll be any games by January 1 or anywhere close to it.

Can you bet anywhere on January first start date, if you can I would go heavy on a later date now.
 

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