Yeah, I guess I remove emotion and think logically; he made thousands of good decisions on the ice just this season, and you’re hung up on one of the few bad ones. Yes, a bad one was impactful, but what about all the good ones that were, too?
How can you make that call without knowing what everyone wants? How much for Marner? How much for Johnsson? How much for Kapanen? What’s happening with Marleau?
Moving Zaitsev opens a big hole, and it would be colossally stupid to trade Nylander unless someone makes a career ending overpayment.
I’m not wishing or hoping anything. The Leafs are losing Johnsson or Kapanen and possibly more. That’s what happens when you give Robin the Bat-suit.
The only thing I know is that I’d feel a lot better about this if Lou was driving. Robin hasn’t driven the batmobile before, and from the looks of things, he can’t really see over the wheel. A poor perspective, I guess you’d say.
There are pros and cons to all of the options. And you don’t need to know what each wants just yet. You know Marner’s range and his ask.
But simple math is this.
We have 8.8M in cap space if Gardiner and Hainsey walk. They need to be replaced. With a league minimum replacement (700k) per, we now have 8.8-1.4 or 7.4 to sign Kappy, AJ and Marner.
If we take a bare bones scenario and let AJ, Kappy also walk and replace with league minimum we gain $100k back.
So 7.5 to sign Marner.
Let’s do the popular move and trade Brown. That gives us 2.1M or 9.6M to sign Marner.
But we also need to spend 700k on Brown’s replacement now. So 8.9. To sign Marner.
That’s just not enough.
Hyman? 2.5 in savings but another 700k in replacement and we are getting really close. 10.7 available.
Our roster now has 6 guys making league minimum. No Kappy, AJ, Brown or Hyman.
But we’ve got Kadri.
And that assumes Marner takes 10.7.
Or move Kadri. Get a net of 3.8 to give 12.6 to play with. 1.4 goes to the blue line so 11.2 is left.
Brown has to go as well. That’s 12.9. That may be enough to keep Kapanen and Marner.
You just have to go with what gives you the best possible roster out of all the options.
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Completely agree that this mess was created with the Marleau contract, then J.T., and then the Matthews and Nylander extensions.
The Hail Mary here is Marleau somehow agreeing to move. But you can only make the offer, he decides.
The planning has to involve the idea he stays.