Post-Game Talk: More questions than answers, Jets season over

[ATLbound]

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Very good post here -as always Jet. I don't know if I agree with you on Little, considering his age. If the Jets can find a younger up and coming Bryan Little, I'd move him, but he has a no move clause.

He doesn't have that dynamic edge to his game , like he used to, and looks like he's slowing down quite a bit ?

Is his clause done or 1 more year before it goes to limited. If it next year then I think he is still good enough to keep next year, hope for another 40-50
Season and see if there is any takers next summer. He is interesting because I think it was January timeframe he looked like old Little for a 10 game stretch and was even scoring at a 20+ goal and 50+ point pace again. Then he slumped around the time we brought in hayes until playoffs. I thought despite just the 3 playoff points that he upped his game, and can't deny his effort and compete. I just think what he is now is a 3C, that needs to play with certain types of players and can still kill penalties and chip in 15 goals, 40ish points. Unfortunately that means he is a a bit overpaid for that role, but thats where he is currently at. He needs to play with someone who works hard, can dig pucks out and also help him out a little on the defence side. Prime Ladd was that, Frolik was that. Wheeler was and still
Some what is that. Ehlers, Laine, Connor are not that. Connor is probably the closest. Stone would have been that and could probably bring little back to 2C level. I say go get a 2C with Trouba and get a D replacement with Ehlers or Connor. Then with Little as 3C and Lowry as 4C you have stellar depth.

 

[GNP]

It was a down year that in the fulness of time will be looked at as a blip in the golden age of the team. Trouba and one of Myers/Kulikov will be gone, Laine should be signed long-term at a price that reflects the reality of what he offers. The one they need to keep above all else is Tanev - that guy is a complete winner. I really don't like coaching changes but in this case I would think about it ... but only if there was someone available who had a track record of dealing with the precise deficiencies of this team. Not just a random change and more likely only at the assistant level.

_____________________________________________

I certainly agree with you on signing Tanev --everyone on here, loves the hustle and passion he brings to the game. I'd find the money to sign Tanev, and that's one thing I'm sure of.

After a playoff loss like this, it's probably not a good idea to be talking about trading players, until the emotions die down some.

 

[FonRiesen]

Niku was HARDLY the solution to our problem. We had a good look at Sami and I think he did a great job and shows promise as a #4 ish guy. He has warts in his game and probably would have been exposed in a heavy series like this.

(snip: lots of decent commentary)

Great strawman - you seriously think my point was that Niku was going to be the difference in this series? Niku has been mismanaged and wouldn't have hurt - had he been properly managed in the season, he would have been an upgrade over Myers (I know you love him, but he continues to be a tire fire in the D zone, though he's not the only one) or Kulikov.

I appreciate your analysis in the rest of your post, though - it reflects the complexity of the loss that some people don't seem to get. The rest of my post is not directed at you, it's for those who think a Band-Aid solution will help.

A big problem is most people have Cause/Effect thinking; it results in poor logic. In reality, everything that occurs is an inevitable emergent resulting from a complex set of systems.

This playoff result was an emergent of coaching systems, each individual player's skillsets, health, referee abilities, even things like time of day and unpredictable bounces of the puck, etc. Some factors are far more important than others, some less so. Some are controllable, lots are not.

Cause/effect people think in terms of: Jets lost because of X (locker room problems, crappy personnel, 'ran out of gas', etc), and then proceed to act based on that belief.

If the Jets org used systems thinking, they'd list out as many factors as possible that contributed to the loss, big or small. Then focus on those that are controllable and start changing as many factors as you can. It's never one thing - in fact, if you change one part of a system (ie. The players are gassed, so we'll mainly have optional skates, less practicing) you have to evaluate the unintended potential consequences resulting from that decision (reduced discipline, players maybe not on same page). It's very difficult, so we tend to oversimplify.

But every factor or subsystem you improve (ie developing and utilizing guys like Niku, not over playing vets, monitoring the culture of the team) improves the chance of the emergent we all want (Stanley Cup championship). We'll never catch all the factors, and things like reffing, health, and puck bounces can't be anticipated, but you can mitigate a lot!

Sorry for the lecture, I wish I could be more concise, but it's an important change to the way we think!

 

[ATLbound]

LOL do you think so?

He'll be back behind the bench next year. Book it.

I'd be fine with a replacement in the off-season but you know that's not how Chevy operates.

I think it is a tiring topic because I just don't see it. He will be back on a short leash IMO. If we hit any major bumps during the season he will be on the hot seat, and if we miss the playoffs or another first round exit he will likely be gone then. But just don't see TNSE and Chevy firing him yet. Even though I think it would be good as part of a shake up and re tool. Although there is not much out there coach wise and still plenty of open jobs

 

[winnipegger]

I had a great time watching the team this year as always. Disappointed, but after the WCF last year and a good battle against a seriously good opponent this year I'm feeling alright about the team going forward. I hope everyone has gotten over it or getting over it , and go outside it's nice out.

 

[WPGChief]

Niku was HARDLY the solution to our problem. We had a good look at Sami and I think he did a great job and shows promise as a #4 ish guy. He has warts in his game and probably would have been exposed in a heavy series like this.

I was going to say at least now we know what we have for a team, but I honestly think we won't really know until we see how the team comes back next year. Which players will rededicate themselves to excellence? There are certain players who will have to do a lot of soul searching in the off season.

Scheifele, Hellebuyck, Roslovic, Ehlers, and Byfuglien simply have to be MUCH better if we are going to do anything with this group.

• Scheifele: was better in the playoffs but his season was really kind of shocking. I never expected that from a rink rat like Mark.
• Hellebuyck: came down to earth this year. Did he take it easy in the off season, thinking he'd 'figured it out'? He looked a LOT like 16-17 Hellebuyck. He wasn't BAD but we did not get saves from him when we needed them most. He allowed 3 goals in 7 shots in the 3rd in game 5 and the first shot he faced in game 6.
• Roslovic: not much to say. Jack did... Jack last year. I really felt he was shaping up to be KFC part 2 but yikes.
• Ehlers: I wonder how much his injury continued to dog him in the rest of the year. He just never looked right. He needs to get stronger in the offseason and get mentally prepared to play a man's game in the playoffs. He was practically invisible again.
• Byfuglien: I wanted to give Buff a pass as he was coming back from injury, but his problems were between his ears. When we needed a leader most, he collapsed. That dumb, soft play on Sundqvist that tied game 5, backing into his own goalie in game 6 in the first minute, and that mind numbingly stupid punch to Perron in the bench resulting in the second goal. This guy is supposed to put the team on his back, not sit on them.
• Laine: I hope and believe that Patty turned a corner in these playoffs. He seems to be the opposite of Ehlers, a made for the playoffs performer. He scored, he was physical, he made plays, all under pressure. We just need to see that consistently over the regular season next year, too

Have to go:

• Perreault: This guy is the definition of energy, unfocused. What people accused Tanev of early in his career is what MP is, now. He skates all over, is out of position, falls down, cannot convert chances, and takes horrible penalties. We have this guy for 4.125MM cap hit for 2 more years? No.
• Trouba: I am not blind to the fact that Jacob Trouba is our best RHD. I know we have some pretty critical issues with defensive depth, as in top end talent. However, Jacob Trouba does not want to be in Winnipeg. I am not going to get into the minutae of how I know this or his history, but anyone who has followed JT closely either knows this to be true, or has a strong inkling. He played a very emotionless game in this playoffs, and he lacked the intensity that your top pair D needs to be effective. He and Buff were major culprits in our first round exit. I'd trade Trouba and look to move some pieces around to get a replacement. The Jets have the assets to do it.

Need to be recognized:

• Wheeler: People ragged on Blake most of this year, which really shocked me. We don't really know if he was conjoined with Scheifele due to his own wants, or the coaches stubbornness. Despite that, he did not play with the same 'malaise' and lack of execution as Scheifele did. Yes, I think 55's play made Wheeler less effective at times this year, but he still managed to score a career high 92 points, good for 14th overall and 4th amongst right wingers.
• Chiarot: Ben has suffered from people having made up their minds about him long ago and failing to see the amazing growth in his game. One of the complaints I still see about him is his gap, and that is valid (and something for him to continue to work on). However, his play with the puck in his own zone has been nothing short of a transformation. He used to panic with the puck, ice it, throw it up the wall for a giveaway when he faced pressure. He has such a calmness about his game now. He holds onto the puck a bit longer, turns back, makes that quick smart pass. He rarely turns the puck over in the Jets half of the ice. He has quietly become one of the Jets steadiest defensemen, and he was very good in this playoff series. Extremely physical and smart. I was very impressed with him.
• Little: Bryan just continues to do Bryan things. He is a really great all round forward, and though he may not be flashy, he can do anything and play anywhere in the lineup. A key player to hold onto.

I think a minor retool is in order in the offseason. We will see if Chevy is overly cautious - as we still have a terribly young team.

Agreed, but with caveats:

• Niku was hardly the solution now but with his constant up-and-down between the NHL and AHL to only getting time in a marred defence unit amidst a time when the Jets as a whole were struggling - all after he (and Vesalainen) were curiously left out on the trip to Finland - doesn't necessarily speak to setting up for success.

• Scheifele got the points but he and Wheeler struggled in a lot of underlying metrics and the chickens came to home to roost in the playoffs.

• Hellebuyck has had an up-and-down season but the defence in front of him was much worse at points in the year. He got settled into the playoffs and I can pick out two games like you where he was the only reason the Jets had a chance to win. While deserved to a point, he's gotten way more criticism for a team-effort th

• Roslovic definitely did not meet expectations outside of some breakthrough games. He's still 22 but hasn't done much for confidence into a projected #2C - he'll need to have a large leap and growth from this season.

• Ehlers is also still 23 and I do question his health as well as he didn't use his speed to drive to the middle of the ice. However, he still had nice plays and passes that could have ended in tap-in's, but they didn't happen so now we're stuck talking about how invisible he is.

• Byfuglien was a combo of Good Buff and Bad Buff this series, especially in his style of roving around the ice. Pairing Chiarot who decided to mimic Mark Stuart for this series in trying to lay out big hits was a poor idea.

• Laine just turned 21 and has a lot of growing to do still. I hoped it would come this past off-season but he seems to be a slower developer. Maurice and co. seem to be fine putting him in non-optimal situations and force him to round his game, which I'm okay with to a point.

• Perreault is probably the easiest to harp on at this point, and there's no question that this season was poorer for him, especially in the penalty differential department. However, shipping him off after this kind of season after his previous three have garnered you these kind of results is just asking for that to blow up in your face.

• Trouba most certainly does not 'have to go' but it wouldn't surprise me if he does. Jets are trading from a disadvantage unless they force a bidding war, however - but I'd rather see him traded rather than keeping him as a 'self-rental' (a la Tyler Myers) after a 1-year arbitration decision, however.

• The Jets' early success on the power-play ballooned a lot of players stats, none more so than Blake Wheeler's. Of his 90 points, 66 of them were primary points (goals and first assists), and 31 of them came at 5v5 for a 1.54 P1/60 which puts him at 90th of all forwards in the NHL with more than 500 minutes played. (For comparison's sake, at the top is Mitch Marner who has 58 points in which 52 of them were goals or first assists.) Of course, his play on the half-wall on the power play means that he might not have as many P1's as the Jets could 'slingshot' it through Connor or Scheifele or Buff/Trouba to one of the others. However, I think I pair him with Scheifele in just barely meeting expectations - neither of them were as elite as they could have been this season and probably would have been better apart during their 5v5 struggles.

• Chiarot is a curious one to me in that I'm not sure what we'll get from him going forward. Without Byfuglien, he surprised most in being steadier in his own zone than predicted, but I have to disagree with his "extremely physical and smart" presence during these playoffs. He had some awful, awful pinches and blue-line stand-ups only for the Blues to attack quickly in transition which was their game plan all along. That being said, he's a UFA now and will most certainly be looking for a raise from his $1.4m and I think he'll get it unless he wants to stick around.

• Little should have stayed a centre to close off the year and his move to Lowry's wing was a headscratcher. He's quietly good but I don't think he's quietly worth $6m $5.29m.

I'll probably have my own in-depth recap at a later point but there was some points worth mentioning as an addendum to your (good) recap.

EDIT: Correction to Little's AAV.

 

[Guardian17]

Woke up this morning with a question.

What is the Winnipeg Jets identity?

 

[Robinson2187]

Woke up this morning with a question.

What is the Winnipeg Jets identity?

Underperformers?

It went from pack of wolves to that in less than a year.

 

[raideralex99]

Some very difficult and perhaps unpopular decisions to make this off season. For one, trade Ehlers. We need to rebuild a team that can be successful in the playoffs. Ehlers has proven that he can't. And I like Ehlers. But in the playoffs, he plays scared.

Trading Ehlers would be a big mistake ... all good coaches know how to use a valuable player's strength.
Maurice is the problem not Ehlers.

 

[pucka lucka]

Ehlers is an elite ice tilter. Yet he is the first to get demoted? Laine attacks in layers so we play him with push the puck forward at all costs line mates? Wheeler & Scheifele constantly cheat at our blue line and get hemmed in our zone a ridiculous amount for relative to their ice-time yet are never split up for even a shift for an entire season? The team lacks consistent puck retrieval on d after losing Enstrom, so we don't really play our best future hope in Niku because Beaulieu, Chiapet, Kulikov are far too valuable to sit our a game or 3. Chiarot breaks into the league playing with our best d-man Niku with our worst. Hayes getting under 10 minutes in the playoffs. How many teams in the NHL take Lowry over Hayes? zero?

 

[Repoman]

Not real surprised we're out. Was hoping we could flip the switch kinda like CBus but when don't learn from 3rd period collapses all year it's not going to get easier bin the playoffs. Lots of intrigue this off season. will be interesting to see how it all turns out.

 

[raideralex99]

Lol ... Justin Bieber says F*** you and the Jets to a Jet troll.
Justin Bieber shows love to Leafs on Instagram, snaps back at Jets trolls

 

[DowntownBooster]

I had a great time watching the team this year as always. Disappointed, but after the WCF last year and a good battle against a seriously good opponent this year I'm feeling alright about the team going forward. I hope everyone has gotten over it or getting over it , and go outside it's nice out.

You're right, it is nice outside. Just got back from a walk. Hopefully after an extended off-season this year and no games scheduled in Europe next year, the Jets players will come back refreshed, rested and ready to go next fall in anticipation of a great season and long playoff drive next year.

 

[Overkamp]

Binnington is not good. Next team up will have an easy time with him They will crowd and crash the net. When the Jets did, he was easy. But the Jets team has become soft. Some guys are not suited at all to playoff hockey like Ehlers and Roslo. A guy like Lemieux was more important for this team than Hayes. All Hayes did was pickup the points Little was already getting, in a year where we showed for 3 months in a row that we were only a .500 team and not a serious contender. Chevy gave up the future making the team less playoff ready. A real shame.

Big changes needed.

Terrible take.

Binnington has been good since he was called up. Jets just weren’t good enough. You can’t win games with six shots on goal in the first 40 minutes ..

 

[AKAChip]

Ehlers is an elite ice tilter. Yet he is the first to get demoted? Laine attacks in layers so we play him with push the puck forward at all costs line mates? Wheeler & Scheifele constantly cheat at our blue line and get hemmed in our zone a ridiculous amount for relative to their ice-time yet are never split up for even a shift for an entire season? The team lacks consistent puck retrieval on d after losing Enstrom, so we don't really play our best future hope in Niku because Beaulieu, Chiapet, Kulikov are far too valuable to sit our a game or 3. Chiarot breaks into the league playing with our best d-man Niku with our worst. Hayes getting under 10 minutes in the playoffs. How many teams in the NHL take Lowry over Hayes? zero?

Damn this is good stuff.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

You're a new join but I hope you liked what you saw and that you come join us next year; I promise you that the Doomsaying crotchstains are but a small minority!

Damn that's good. I'm going to use that.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I feel like it is even more open than before outside of the Lightning having been the obvious favorite. I could see pretty much every team remaining go all the way. If I'd had to bet I'd go with Vegas just by my gut feeling. They might be hungriest team left right now. Maybe actually the Leafs? Man, that would suck. Caps won it last year, Islanders and Avalanche are still pretty young and Blues I feel like will at some point be happy with what they achieved after being the worst team in the league at some point. I kind of have no sentiment at all about Dallas though. But Vegas looks very hungry to me after coming so close last year + they got Stone who seems like a man on a mission.

I think I'm going to pull a 180 and cheer for Vegas now. If they can start with nothing and win a Cup in two years, it might make Chipman rethink his "slow and steady is the only way".

 

[kanadalainen]

I still can't believe we're done for the season

Same. All these god-awful CBC analyses are like an out of body experience.

Am I high? No
Am I sleeping? No
Have I ingested cilantro? No
Have I ingested tryptophan and a whack-load of Ukrainian spec Cole slaw? Yes

Wait......!

 

[tntkid]

Woke up this morning with a question.

What is the Winnipeg Jets identity?

" Talented Lazy Team "

I am still stunned at that gutless effort and performance in an elimination game.

 

[Saint Loser]

Hey guys.....Blues fan here. I know you're upset and pretty sore about the series.

Some of you guys here know that I absolutely love the Jets and provided some scouting reports a few years back (under a different user name) when Hellebuyck, Petan, DeLeo and Morrissey were playing for the Moose. I was wrong about DeLeo, but pretty much nailed Morrissey and so happy he is the real deal. Hellebuyck was another that I saw as being a future bad ass. Petan? Decent, but replaceable.

Anyway......love the Jets and good luck next year.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

Both are at fault. Players not good/smart enough to use the option of skating the puck out, and coaching for sticking with players using the same failed system. This playoff series exposed how valuable Toby Enstrom type abilities are in today's NHL. He would have the puck going back up ice before a forecheck can setup.

Hopefully, Niku can play that role effectively next season.

 

[AlphaLackey]

Damn that's good. I'm going to use that.

If nothing else, I like to keep my metaphors colorful

 

[Crocket]

Binnington is not good. Next team up will have an easy time with him They will crowd and crash the net. When the Jets did, he was easy. But the Jets team has become soft. Some guys are not suited at all to playoff hockey like Ehlers and Roslo. A guy like Lemieux was more important for this team than Hayes. All Hayes did was pickup the points Little was already getting, in a year where we showed for 3 months in a row that we were only a .500 team and not a serious contender. Chevy gave up the future making the team less playoff ready. A real shame.

Big changes needed.

Totally agree. We didn't even test Binnington. And agree about Lemieux. He is a playoff style player. We looked very small and soft, other than the Lowery line, and Buff.
And

 

[blueandgoldguy]

LOL do you think so?

He'll be back behind the bench next year. Book it.

I'd be fine with a replacement in the off-season but you know that's not how Chevy operates.

Is that 100% Chevy though? Maybe Chipman wants him to stay as coach.

 

[Crocket]

It will be interesting to find out who was playing injured and what the ailment was, my biggest concern apart from injuries hampering the team was the play of Scheifele who truly looked lost in way to many games.

I'd like to know the injury report too. I know Buff was hurt for sure, he could barely skate. Scheifele didn't look right down the stretch. Morrissey looked fine, but you know he usually plays more physical, and was probably favoring his shoulder.