Value of: Mitch Marner Contract Mega-Thread Pt. 2

[Raym11]

Matthews has under-performed 1 playoffs

Marner has for 2

The physical intensity of the playoffs might be affecting Marner more than Matthews

 

[yegoldboysclub]

I predict a short term deal similar to Matthews, not sure if he would be willing to commit long term with the pieces in place at the moment. Im going say 12.5 x 4yrs.

I don't see him taking a penny less then Matthews, he we be a fool to accept anything less.

 

[wintersej]

Matthews has under-performed 1 playoffs

Marner has for 2

The physical intensity of the playoffs might be affecting Marner more than Matthews

Marner was great last year in the playoffs. This year once the Bruins moved Pasta and let the Bergeron line be more shutdown he had like a shot a game.

 

[lomiller1]

I agree and that's why the talk about only Marner being the only one to get an offer sheet is crazy, when other players such as Rantanen, Aho, Point, Laine, Connor or Trouba could also get one. However I think only Marner's name got brought up because of how big the Toronto market is and those fans who hate the Leafs and want it to happen.

I doubt we see any offer sheets. IMO the real reason we rarely see offer sheets is that the teams that have the cap space to make them are picking high in the draft and don’t want to give up multiple high picks. Teams that are picking lower in the draft and would be willing to give up the picks already have cap issues of their own and usually can’t afford to take on the salary.

Other then singular franchise changing players there usually just isn’t a fit available where a team has the cap space, the need and won’t be giving up lottery picks. If you listen to Leaf fans and Media Marner is just such a player, right up until it comes time to talk contract. I like Marner a lot, he’s probably the Leafs best player but I don’t think anyone gives up the salary and draft picks for a Winger.

 

[Raym11]

Marner was great last year in the playoffs. This year once the Bruins moved Pasta and let the Bergeron line be more shutdown he had like a shot a game.

I'm talking about the Caps series. Marner was a non-factor

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I know it sounds farfetched, but I wonder if they will explore trading him at the draft.

As great as he is, I just can't fathom how they expect to be able to win with Matthews, Marner, Tavares, and Zaitsev eating up almost half the cap. I bring up Zaitsev because he is probably not able to be moved with his term.

I am also saying this with the assumption they will eventually move Nylander if they keep the 4 above. If they aren't moving Nylander, it becomes even more difficult. 46 or so million on 5 players, none of which are effective defenders.

That Morgan Rielly cap hit is their MVP.

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

And then Marner's agent laughs in Dubas' face at that $9.5 million. But best believe no agent ever laughed in Steve Yzerman's face. That is why Tampa got those steals on Kuch/Stamkos/Hedman etc. Not the state tax.

Dubas should be holding strong at a number lower than 9.5 million.

 

[Field of Dreams]

Matthews has under-performed 1 playoffs

Marner has for 2

The physical intensity of the playoffs might be affecting Marner more than Matthews

It's almost like players matched up with Bergeron score less

 

[WHISTLERNATE]

I'm sure Dubas would front load his contract and give him signing bonuses the way he did for Tavares and Matthews.

Never mind all the money Marner already makes from his endorsements.

Front loading the contract results in a higher salary, and as a result more tax is paid. Bonuses in Canada get taxed far higher than salary as well. Endorsements are not part of his salary and pretty irrelevant when it comes to his contract.

 

[Gatorbait19]

I doubt we see any offer sheets. IMO the real reason we rarely see offer sheets is that the teams that have the cap space to make them are picking high in the draft and don’t want to give up multiple high picks. Teams that are picking lower in the draft and would be willing to give up the picks already have cap issues of their own and usually can’t afford to take on the salary.

Other then singular franchise changing players there usually just isn’t a fit available where a team has the cap space, the need and won’t be giving up lottery picks. If you listen to Leaf fans and Media Marner is just such a player, right up until it comes time to talk contract. I like Marner a lot, he’s probably the Leafs best player but I don’t think anyone gives up the salary and draft picks for a Winger.

I generally agree with your analysis that teams with the cap space won’t trade 4 firsts for 1 player, as the picks will likely be higher in the first round.

However, 3 of the 5 lowest payroll teams (Avs, Isles and Hurricanes) have all made it to the 2nd round. If one of those teams believes they’re a star player away from being perennial contenders, I can see it happening. Especially in the case of the Avs, where they have a deep farm and the 4th overall pick this year. That coupled with Mackinnon’s amazing deal, could give the Avs the best top 5 in the league (Mack, Rantannen, Marner, Landeskog and 4th overall pick). At that point, the loss of 4 firsts from 2020-2024 won’t be that big a deal, at least until the mid-2020s when the team has no farm.

It would get tricky though with Rantannen probably not wanting less than Marner, so that’s something you’d have to factor in.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Less than Matthews, but more than Tavares. 11 to 11.634 is the sweet spot. 5 + years. He did what he had to do to get paid, and knowing Dubas' history with agents, he will be paid.

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

Front loading the contract results in a higher salary, and as a result more tax is paid. Bonuses in Canada get taxed far higher than salary as well. Endorsements are not part of his salary and pretty irrelevant when it comes to his contract.

I think where Bonuses factor in is that Dubas can say to him, how much endorsement money do you think you get as a member of the Carolina Huricanes. It definitely factors in the same as any financial stuff.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Dubas should be holding strong at a number lower than 9.5 million.

And a lot of teams would offer up 5/50.5 and gladly give up two firsts and a second.

He’s getting at least 10.1 a season for 5 years. Toronto is matching that offer.

That’s the difference between the Point, Rantanen comparables. Teams might not want to give up four 1sts but 5/50.5 will be tossed out to those three if they haven’t been signed by then.

Toronto is obviously the team where 10.1 affects them the most. TB maybe but they have three stars making less than 10. Toronto already has two stars making more than 11

 

[LeafsNation75]

Matthews has under-performed 1 playoffs

Marner has for 2

The physical intensity of the playoffs might be affecting Marner more than Matthews

In the 2017 playoffs Marner had been playing through mono and it's the reason he under performed. So I would give him a pass for that year.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Front loading the contract results in a higher salary, and as a result more tax is paid. Bonuses in Canada get taxed far higher than salary as well. Endorsements are not part of his salary and pretty irrelevant when it comes to his contract.

I know endorsements are not apart of his salary. However those can be used as a reason why he would make even more money on top of whatever contract he signs. If Steve Yzerman was able to use the no state tax advantage in Florida to the Lightning players so they could re-sign for less than what they are worth and it was not apart of the salary cap, why can't any endorsements for playing in Toronto be used the same way?

 

[BB88]

I'm sure Dubas learned from the Nylander experience to not go through that with Marner and I bet Brendan Shanahan will remind him of that.

You'd really hope so, especially given Marner is by far the better player/more important player for that franchise.

 

[Snowman]

I know endorsements are not apart of his salary. However those can be used as a reason why he would make even more money on top of whatever contract he signs. If Steve Yzerman was able to use the no state tax advantage in Florida to the Lightning players so they could re-sign for less than what they are worth and it was not apart of the salary cap, why can't any endorsements for playing in Toronto be used the same way?

I think you could use endorsements as an incentive, however they may not hold as much weight with some players as they would with others in relation to guaranteed NHL money.

Endorsements aren’t guaranteed money and the sponsor company can pull out or terminate the endorsement at any time. Some players might prefer to have the additional money included in a guaranteed NHL contract than rely on the possible money from endorsements. So, they would prefer the higher dollar contract.

 

[WHISTLERNATE]

I know endorsements are not apart of his salary. However those can be used as a reason why he would make even more money on top of whatever contract he signs. If Steve Yzerman was able to use the no state tax advantage in Florida to the Lightning players so they could re-sign for less than what they are worth and it was not apart of the salary cap, why can't any endorsements for playing in Toronto be used the same way?

How did the endorsements work in the Nylander, Tavares, Matthews deals? They certainly didn't take discounts to account for them why on earth is Marner expected to be different?

Marner waited until this offseason to negotiate his contract to maximize value. He took a big gamble on himself and won. Just my opinion, but i see no way that he took that risk just to take a deep salary discount. If he signs for under 10mill I will be stunned and happily admit I'm wrong. I see him closer to 11mill though.

 

[blinkman360]

Using that same logic why won't other teams want to sign Rantanen, Aho, Point, Laine, Connor or Trouba to offer sheets? Assuming Marner re-signs before July 1, 2019 and the other players I mentioned do not, wouldn't they be talked about getting an offer sheet a lot more?

Because those other teams don't already have two players making $11M+.

It's not that complicated. Dubas will try to play hardball with Marner - he has to - and Marner will probably hold out for a contract similar to Matthews or at least Tavares.

This is probably the first time in a long time where I can actually see an offer sheet happening, just based on the variables at play. Dubas could end up in a really tough spot.

 

[WHISTLERNATE]

I think where Bonuses factor in is that Dubas can say to him, how much endorsement money do you think you get as a member of the Carolina Huricanes. It definitely factors in the same as any financial stuff.

Endorsements were around last year when Tavares, Matthews, Nylander all got paid top dollar. Why didn't that impact their negotiations?

 

[Rymistri]

I imagine the debate will be between team comparables and position comparables.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Because those other teams don't already have two players making $11M+.

It's not that complicated. Dubas will try to play hardball with Marner - he has to - and Marner will probably hold out for a contract similar to Matthews or at least Tavares.

This is probably the first time in a long time where I can actually see an offer sheet happening, just based on the variables at play. Dubas could end up in a really tough spot.

Just like the way we see an offer sheet for Leon Draisaitl because the Oilers first priority in the summer of 2017 was getting Connor McDavid's extension done and others said Draisaitl could sign one and that never happened.

How about a more recent example of William Nylander not getting an offer sheet the whole time he was an RFA until December 1, 2018.

So I personally think that Marner or any other high value RFA will not be signing any offer sheet.

 

[LeafsNation75]

How did the endorsements work in the Nylander, Tavares, Matthews deals? They certainly didn't take discounts to account for them why on earth is Marner expected to be different?

Marner waited until this offseason to negotiate his contract to maximize value. He took a big gamble on himself and won. Just my opinion, but i see no way that he took that risk just to take a deep salary discount. If he signs for under 10mill I will be stunned and happily admit I'm wrong. I see him closer to 11mill though.

It's believed that San Jose offered Tavares 7 years at $91 million which is a $13 million AAV. Instead he signed in Toronto for 7 years at $77 million, which is a $11 million AAV. So you can say he took a discount to sign with the Maple Leafs.

 

[blinkman360]

Just like the way we see an offer sheet for Leon Draisaitl because the Oilers first priority in the summer of 2017 was getting Connor McDavid's extension done and others said Draisaitl could sign one and that never happened.

How about a more recent example of William Nylander not getting an offer sheet the whole time he was an RFA until December 1, 2018.

So I personally think that Marner or any other high value RFA will not be signing any offer sheet.

What? Draisaitl was hardly the player then that he is today - I'm sure there were questions of whether or not he could be "the guy" for a franchise looking to pay that steep price. Still, based on what Edmonton paid at the time, they could have been worried about the possibility and decided to cough up what he wanted. Still, the cap situations between the two teams is night and day. McDavid was the only guy getting paid big - they could afford to splurge on Draisaitl.

..and not sure what Nylander has to do with anything. He's not comparable at all to the caliber of player we're talking about. Marner is a legit "face of the franchise" type player who will be 22 years old at the start of next season. We're comparing apples and oranges.

Look, I know the idea of losing a player like this probably sucks to think about so you'll try to concoct any reasoning you can to convince yourself that it's ridiculous, but it really isn't. Luckily for you though I'm sure when it comes down to it, Dubas will pay the man what he deserves, and he deserves to be in the same ballpark as Toronto's other two stars.

 

[Smif]

I'm talking about the Caps series. Marner was a non-factor

This series he was against the Bergeron line AND Chara and Babcock didn't even try to get him away from that matchup for one shift. Couple that with a PP that got worse as the season went a long and it's no wonder...