Value of: Mitch Marner Contract Mega-Thread Pt. 2

[Frank Drebin]

Do you think that Tavares left money on the table to come to Toronto without an expectation (That he has cashed in on) of endorsement deals?

Tavares left money on the table, Nylander, Matthews and soon to be Marner scooped it all up.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

Ottawa felt they were fair close to the playoffs. They just traded one 1st rounder, nevermind 4.

I would take 4 1st round picks without hesitation if the alternative is overpaying Marner to that degree. I don't think people here realize how risky giving up 4 consecutive unprotected 1st rounders can be. The Brooklyn Nets didn't even go that far and their trade with the Celtics set them back for half a decade.

It is absolutely a huge risk, I don’t think anyone is denying that.

My thinking is how many players are better than Marner right now? And how often do players than Marner get drafted? The fact of the matter is, it rarely happens.

You might be able to draft some good pieces with those 4 firsts, but the chances are slim that you draft a player as good as or better than Marner. A team could make it work. Especially if none of them end up in the top 10.

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

It is absolutely a huge risk, I don’t think anyone is denying that.

My thinking is how many players are better than Marner right now? And how often do players than Marner get drafted? The fact of the matter is, it rarely happens.

You might be able to draft some good pieces with those 4 firsts, but the chances are slim that you draft a player as good as or better than Marner. A team could make it work. Especially if none of them end up in the top 10.

A lot of the teams who not only have 11m in cap space (and when I say 11m in capspace I mean that in addition to cap space going forward to sign their own RFAs) and their next 4 firsts are teams who could easily end up in the bottom 3rd of the league next season.

 

[mattydamon]

Would be crazy for Marner to make 11m+

I can't see any winger contracts that would be comparable - why is it TO has such a tough time signing their players to reasonable deals? The pressure/media?

It will be interesting to see what similar players in Rantanen/Tkachuk/Point sign for and how they compare with Marner's....to me an AAV of ~9/9.5 would be fair.

 

[BigTruzz]

He deserves more than Matthews since he's the better player, but he probably won't get it. He should stay firm on atleast 11M per.

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

Yup! Everyone knows that Montreal overperfomed and having the best goalie in the world hides a lot of deficiencies. Let's see where they land next year.

We'll see. But I'm pretty sure they have a much better show at improving their totals next season than the Leafs, who'll likely lose Gardiner, Hainsey and Nylander for next to no immediate asset just to keep Marner.

 

[WesMcCauley]

Would be crazy for Marner to make 11m+

I can't see any winger contracts that would be comparable - why is it TO has such a tough time signing their players to reasonable deals? The pressure/media?

It will be interesting to see what similar players in Rantanen/Tkachuk/Point sign for and how they compare with Marner's....to me an AAV of ~9/9.5 would be fair.

Problem is Matthews' contract. If he signed for 8 years it would have been a decent contract. But signing him for 4rfa years and 1 ufa year made it an awful contract for Toronto. It will obviously have an impact on Marner's contract just like Stamkos' contract had an impact on Hedman, Kucherov and McDonaghs contract, and it will have an impact on Point's contract this summer.

Matthews got 1,5m+ more than Eichel, 3m+ more than Draisaitl for example who both signed for 8 years. Matthews is a great player and you can obviously argue he is worth the contract but its not good when you keep setting a new precedent when it comes to contracts like Dubas has done for Nylander, Matthews and to an extent Tavares as well even if he could have gotten more somewhere else. That will impact Marner's contract demands and even if i like Dubas, he has done an awful job when it comes to contract negotiations with his top players.

There really is no way around it, he has given them tons of leverage with his comments like "we can and we will", " the contract have to make sense for the player and his family" etc and the players and their agents have taken advantage of it. I have obviously never been a GM but there is a reason for why most GMs are hard as hell on their players during contract negotiations and in arbitraton. It works to be difficult and not give them any more leverage than they already have.

I dont blame the players but it will obviously hurt Leafs' depth and the salaries for their secondary scorers like Johnsson and Kapanen who will either be traded or pushed over in their contract negotiations.

 

[axlrose87]

Problem is Matthews' contract. If he signed for 8 years it would have been a decent contract. But signing him for 4rfa years and 1 ufa year made it an awful contract for Toronto. It will obviously have an impact on Marner's contract just like Stamkos' contract had an impact on Hedman, Kucherov and McDonaghs contract, and it will have an impact on Point's contract this summer.

Matthews got 1,5m+ more than Eichel, 3m+ more than Draisaitl for example who both signed for 8 years. Matthews is a great player and you can obviously argue he is worth the contract but its not good when you keep setting a new precedent when it comes to contracts like Dubas has done for Nylander, Matthews and to an extent Tavares as well even if he could have gotten more somewhere else. That will impact Marner's contract demands and even if i like Dubas, he has done an awful job when it comes to contract negotiations with his top players.

There really is no way around it, he has given them tons of leverage with his comments like "we can and we will", " the contract have to make sense for the player and his family" etc and the players and their agents have taken advantage of it. I have obviously never been a GM but there is a reason for why most GMs are hard as hell on their players during contract negotiations and in arbitraton. It works to be difficult and not give them any more leverage than they already have.

I dont blame the players but it will obviously hurt Leafs' depth and the salaries for their secondary scorers like Johnsson and Kapanen who will either be traded or pushed over in their contract negotiations.

There is an easy way around it. Don't give him Matthews money.
Give the same money all his comparable wingers are getting or let him sit. Or maybe one of those magical and elusive offersheets will happen.

 

[WesMcCauley]

There is an easy way around it. Don't give him Matthews money.
Give the same money all his comparable wingers are getting or let him sit. Or maybe one of those magical and elusive offersheets will happen.

Same can be said about giving Matthews 11,6m+ for 5 years. For 8 years fine, should have been a good amount less for five years when Eichel got 10m*8 for example. Dubas has created an extremely difficult situation for himself...

 

[axlrose87]

Same can be said about giving Matthews 11,6m+ for 5 years. For 8 years fine, should have been a good amount less for five years when Eichel got 10m*8 for example. Dubas has created an extremely difficult situation for himself...

But Marner (and his agent) comparing himself to Matthews is similar to comparing himself to Kawai Leonard. They simply aren't proper comparables.
If he is looking at Matthews and wants that money (and is public about it), he will be deservedly vilified by fans and the general hockey media.... and he wont get it.
He will get Rantanen, Aho, Laine money (wingers).

 

[Team Cozens]

Anything over 10.1 million is an overpay and I'd take the 4 1sts.

Seems part of the problem as Dreger pointed out on 590am today was that Lou played hard ball with Marner on his first contract and gave him no schedule B bonuses. Only schedule A. He is the only player to be drafted Top 5 and not get both bonuses. Cost Marner a million bucks this season. Apparently Marner feels he already took his hair cut and wants his money back. Could get very interesting.

 

[axlrose87]

Seems part of the problem as Dreger pointed out on 590am today was that Lou played hard ball with Marner on his first contract and gave him no schedule B bonuses. Only schedule A. He is the only player to be drafted Top 5 and not get both bonuses. Cost Marner a million bucks this season. Apparently Marner feels he already took his hair cut and wants his money back. Could get very interesting.

I agree with you that it could get very contentious.
But the fans trying to compare him to Matthews are just looking for doom and gloom.
If Rantanen or Laine or even Aho (who plays a little center and win) sign for over 10 then the Leafs might be in trouble with Marner.

 

[justafan22]

I agree with you that it could get very contentious.
But the fans trying to compare him to Matthews are just looking for doom and gloom.
If Rantanen or Laine or even Aho (who plays a little center and win) sign for over 10 then the Leafs might be in trouble with Marner.

Leafs should 100% wait for what Rantanen gets.

It's the best comparable.

 

[Captain Controversy]

Marner should get around 11 million a year.
Sign for 7 or 8 years.

 

[Danrs112]

Cool. The only thing Marner sees is his 6.5 in the bank after tax compared to Kuch's 9.5.

Um, Kuch still has to pay every tax except state tax.....which in most states is somewhere around 5%.

 

[Spartachat]

Marner is a special player and deserves $15 mil AAV for 8 years from the Leafs.

 

[sens13]

he's getting $11 -$11.5 for 5 years. there's no way he takes less after what matthews got.

 

[Nervousbreakdown]

Cool. The only thing Marner sees is his 6.5 in the bank after tax compared to Kuch's 9.5.

Do you honestly think the tax savings for playing in Tampa bay equals 3 million dollars on a 9.5 per year deal?

Mark Stone Hit The Tax Jackpot With Trade To Vegas Golden Knights

Try 75000 ish.

 

[koyvoo]

Saw this on another hockey forum

 

[Snowman]

Saw this on another hockey forum
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If these are true at all. It looks like the Leafs will be firing Babcock.

 

[Space Coyote]

Dubas will move likes of Nylander, Kapanen and Johnsson more thinking of trading Marner unless someone offers a Seth Jones type player which very unlikely to happen.

 

[justafan22]

If these are true at all. It looks like the Leafs will be firing Babcock.

His father is an absolute loon.

 

[WHISTLERNATE]

Leafs should 100% wait for what Rantanen gets.

It's the best comparable.

That is a great plan, but may not fit with Dubas' publicly stated self imposed timeline.

 

[justafan22]

That is a great plan, but may not fit with Dubas' publicly stated self imposed timeline.

It's true.

I'd offer Marner 9 as a starting offer and be comfortable going into the high 9s.

If it's 11+ million to get it done, I tell him to shop for offer sheets. It might blow up in your face, but they can't afford to pay him that money with Marleau here.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I think Dubas should just play hardball with Marner. If another team is willing to give him an offersheet of an unprecedented amount of money for a winger, then it is it what it is. Take the four firsts and the 11 million cap space. There just isn't enough cap space to pay 3 different players 11 million per.

If that actually happens, the question is... are the leafs better off with Tavares and Matthews at 11 per, or if it was Matthews and Marner? Tough question.

If any team pays Marner more than what Rantanen, Point, and Aho get, they are idiots anyways.