Minnesota Wild General Discussion XVI

[Bazeek]

Based on - well, the team. You can't honestly see this team going far in the playoffs if they make it that far do you? Not to mention the continued hints that Guerin is on the verge of trading Fiala and that Kaprizov is unhappy here.

At this point, this team should be trying to get as many first and second round picks in the 2022 and 2023 draft, start building a team in 2024 and 2025 and start competing in 2026.

I'm not all that eager to start piling the carts up in front of the horses right now. My main concerns this offseason were the expansion draft, the RFAs and adding a center. The first of those went about as well as could be expected and the latter two are TBD. At this point I think there's a strong chance that we just go into next season with the centers we've got, which is bad... but we'll see.

With Kaprizov and Fiala it just seems like people have forgotten how long these extensions take sometimes. Signing higher-end RFAs can be a long, drawn out process that has extended into the regular season multiple times over the last few years. For the time being there's not much to do but wait, see what happens and evaluate from there.

As for what this team is or isn't next year... honestly, I never know what it is until I see it play, and even then it's usually a rollercoaster. The hockey media almost always reads the team wrong too: when expectations go up performance goes down, and vice versa.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I feel like this is a straw man argument. Who around here is suggesting that the team as currently constructed is built to go deep into the playoffs? Nobody that I've seen. Everyone understands that this is a team in transition, not a team that is ready to contend.

How is it a straw-man argument? If you aren't going to contend, especially with the ghosts of Suter and Parise hanging around the cap space, why not go all in, in the future. Actually commit to a rebuild instead of fumbling around and hoping after 20+ years, you can actually build an elite team without a top pick or two.

I disagree that the team needs to sell everything off. Kaprizov will get signed by training camp, I'll bet my next paycheck on it. I also think Fiala comes back as well. The next couple of seasons will be about Rossi, Boldy and Addison breaking into the line-up with other prospects hopefully sprinkling in over the next few seasons. Not all of them will pan out, but hopefully a few will.

It's not a matter if they sign or not, it's a matter if they will commit long term to the team or not. Guerin has some weird axe to grind with Fiala as well - with constant rumors of the 50/50 being traded. That's fine to have a couple guys come through, because by the time 2025 rolls around, this team should be competing.

What slowed the transition down, IMO, was the Wild making the playoffs last season. I'm sure Guerin figured that he could get extra selections for Bjugstad, Bonino, Johansson, et al, but because the Wild make the postseason, he rewarded the team by keeping it together. Notice he didn't go out an add to it with a TDL deal .

Isn't that always the case with the Wild? Oh, we can't rebuild, because somehow we stumbled into the playoffs. Oh, we can't trade these guys, because somehow we stumbled into the playoffs? Notice as well, he still hasn't added a center to this team? At this point, it's going to be like the Twins all over - barely make the playoffs, don't address any issues and get blown out by teams that are deeper.

It seems fairly obvious to me what is going on, doesn't feel like a mystery to me.

So are we rebuilding or just middling along, hoping for some miracle?

At this point I think there's a strong chance that we just go into next season with the centers we've got, which is bad... but we'll see.

That's an understatement if I ever hear of one.

With Kaprizov and Fiala it just seems like people have forgotten how long these extensions take sometimes. Signing higher-end RFAs can be a long, drawn out process that has extended into the regular season multiple times over the last few years. For the time being there's not much to do but wait, see what happens and evaluate from there.

You know how to keep your RFA from trying to get the shortest deal to UFA? By signing better UFAs with the cap space you made and making moves to get better teammates. The biggest issues is that Kaprizov is going to sign a 5 year deal and then the Wild have to decide what happens next to him? Do they trade him after the 5 years are up? Forecasting here is going to be difficult. Guerin also has some weird bone to pick with Fiala. What happens if Fiala signs a 2 year contract and then walks?

 

[MNNumbers]

How is it a straw-man argument? If you aren't going to contend, especially with the ghosts of Suter and Parise hanging around the cap space, why not go all in, in the future. Actually commit to a rebuild instead of fumbling around and hoping after 20+ years, you can actually build an elite team without a top pick or two.



It's not a matter if they sign or not, it's a matter if they will commit long term to the team or not. Guerin has some weird axe to grind with Fiala as well - with constant rumors of the 50/50 being traded. That's fine to have a couple guys come through, because by the time 2025 rolls around, this team should be competing.



Isn't that always the case with the Wild? Oh, we can't rebuild, because somehow we stumbled into the playoffs. Oh, we can't trade these guys, because somehow we stumbled into the playoffs? Notice as well, he still hasn't added a center to this team? At this point, it's going to be like the Twins all over - barely make the playoffs, don't address any issues and get blown out by teams that are deeper.



So are we rebuilding or just middling along, hoping for some miracle?



That's an understatement if I ever hear of one.



You know how to keep your RFA from trying to get the shortest deal to UFA? By signing better UFAs with the cap space you made and making moves to get better teammates. The biggest issues is that Kaprizov is going to sign a 5 year deal and then the Wild have to decide what happens next to him? Do they trade him after the 5 years are up? Forecasting here is going to be difficult. Guerin also has some weird bone to pick with Fiala. What happens if Fiala signs a 2 year contract and then walks?

If Kaprisov signs for 5 years this summer we will jump for joy.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

The Kaprizov and Fiala contracts are likely going to come down to 4, 5, or 6 year contracts, likely staggered. The players maximize contract values by accepting a 4 & 5 year contract, Wild probably hoping for 5 & 6 year deals. Those would coincide with both the dead cap dropping and the salary cap freeze dropping off, opening up large amounts of cash to be thrown at them on the next contracts if deemed worthy.

 

[thestonedkoala]

If Kaprisov signs for 5 years this summer we will jump for joy.

Would they? It would be kicking the can down the road.

 

[MuckOG]

Would they? It would be kicking the can down the road.

All contracts are "kicking the can down the road".

IMO, 5 years is fair. Kaprizov wants to be able to sign another contract while he is still in his prime. That would be the smart business decision on his part and wouldn't fault him for that at all.

 

[thestonedkoala]

All contracts are "kicking the can down the road".

IMO, 5 years is fair. Kaprizov wants to be able to sign another contract while he is still in his prime. That would be the smart business decision on his part and wouldn't fault him for that at all.

Not necessarily; Brodin, Spurgeon, Eriksson-Ek, Foligno all signed contracts I wouldn't say is kicking the can down the road.

5th year, Kaprizov decides to leave. Minnesota is a bubble playoff team, do we pull a Gaborik and let him walk or do we trade him if he shows no signs of commitment to this team?

 

[HotDish]

Not necessarily; Brodin, Spurgeon, Eriksson-Ek, Foligno all signed contracts I wouldn't say is kicking the can down the road.

5th year, Kaprizov decides to leave. Minnesota is a bubble playoff team, do we pull a Gaborik and let him walk or do we trade him if he shows no signs of commitment to this team?

Pull a Columbus and go for it that year.

 

[Spurgeon]

I don’t think Kaprizov is going to sign for more than 3 years at this point. I think if he would take 4, he’d already be signed by now.

 

[MuckOG]

Would they? It would be kicking the can down the road.

So is your suggestion to trade Kaprizov if he's not willing to sign an 7-8 year contract?

 

[Minnewildsota]

Not necessarily; Brodin, Spurgeon, Eriksson-Ek, Foligno all signed contracts I wouldn't say is kicking the can down the road.

5th year, Kaprizov decides to leave. Minnesota is a bubble playoff team, do we pull a Gaborik and let him walk or do we trade him if he shows no signs of commitment to this team?

What if he gets hit by a bus? What if he gets his girl preggo and wants to go back home to Russia?
There's a million what-ifs, You design a grand scheme of what you would like to do and handle the smaller bits as they come.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Not necessarily; Brodin, Spurgeon, Eriksson-Ek, Foligno all signed contracts I wouldn't say is kicking the can down the road.

5th year, Kaprizov decides to leave. Minnesota is a bubble playoff team, do we pull a Gaborik and let him walk or do we trade him if he shows no signs of commitment to this team?

I bet a GM feels a lot more comfortable making that decision after an extra 5 years of the relationship vs one COVID lockdown season, the player also probably wants a better idea too. All those players that you mentioned have already been on the team for multiple non-COVID seasons and actually know the location and organization, Kaprizov is still getting familiar.

 

[HotDish]

I don’t think Kaprizov is going to sign for more than 3 years at this point. I think if he would take 4, he’d already be signed by now.

I don't think the Wild are willing to go below 5. If he refuses to sign more than 3. You trade him next offseason after signing.

 

[2Pair]

I don’t think Kaprizov is going to sign for more than 3 years at this point. I think if he would take 4, he’d already be signed by now.

I don't think Guerin has offered anything less than 8 years at this point

 

[MNNumbers]

"Kicking the can down the road"......I don't know what this expression exactly means?

Does it mean, "We don't know if he wants to stay here, and we don't know if we want to sign him to a 90M contract, and this just delays the decision."??

As others have said, signing an 8 year contract now likely means the next contract KK signs won't be as lucrative. He wants to sign shorter term so that he can really cash in later.

Wild, imo, want to delay a major signing of 9-10M/yr until Parise/Suter come off the books. So, if he signs 5 years, that's delightful for the team.

 

[Webster]

I don’t think Kaprizov is going to sign for more than 3 years at this point. I think if he would take 4, he’d already be signed by now.

Agreed. But he needs to make a decision soon. KHL season starts in about a month, Sep 1. He could sign 3 years there. Hope not, but we better be ready for bad news.

 

[thestonedkoala]

So is your suggestion to trade Kaprizov if he's not willing to sign an 7-8 year contract?

I think around 3-4 in a 5 year contract, you think about moving Kaprizov if there is some reluctance to sign an extension. More so, I think you have to start planning two options, because Kaprizov -should- be a big part of this franchise moving forward, but his contract length should be what dictates what happens next. It's going to suck if this team starts building long term and then Kaprizov just walks after 5 years, because that'll just reset everything.

There's a million what-ifs, You design a grand scheme of what you would like to do and handle the smaller bits as they come.

There is, but it boils down to; having Kaprizov and not having Kaprizov on the team.

I bet a GM feels a lot more comfortable making that decision after an extra 5 years of the relationship vs one COVID lockdown season, the player also probably wants a better idea too. All those players that you mentioned have already been on the team for multiple non-COVID seasons and actually know the location and organization, Kaprizov is still getting familiar.

Fair enough, however Kaprizov has already made some of his issues known about this team.

Wild, imo, want to delay a major signing of 9-10M/yr until Parise/Suter come off the books. So, if he signs 5 years, that's delightful for the team.

They want to sign him long term (8 years), so they don't have to worry about him walking after 3.

 

[HotDish]

Agreed. But he needs to make a decision soon. KHL season starts in about a month, Sep 1. He could sign 3 years there. Hope not, but we better be ready for bad news.

Yep he is going to sign for 3 years at a salary of 1.5 mil. I'm sure the Wild could sign him to a cap hit of 1.5 mil for 3 years if they wanted.

 

[MNNumbers]

They want to sign him long term (8 years), so they don't have to worry about him walking after 3.

Correct. However, he doesn't want to sign for 8 years. Barring signing him for the limit, the next thing is to sign him for less $$/yr on a shorter term contract, so that the big payday is after the Suter and Parise dead cap hits are expired.

 

[Bazeek]

You know how to keep your RFA from trying to get the shortest deal to UFA? By signing better UFAs with the cap space you made and making moves to get better teammates. The biggest issues is that Kaprizov is going to sign a 5 year deal and then the Wild have to decide what happens next to him? Do they trade him after the 5 years are up? Forecasting here is going to be difficult. Guerin also has some weird bone to pick with Fiala. What happens if Fiala signs a 2 year contract and then walks?

Decisions are inevitable, regardless of the term on the contract. Eriksson-Ek signed for 8 years and eventually they'll have to make a decision with him as well. What counts is what sort of options you give yourself: how many contracts you set to expire at the same time, what sort of trade protections you give out, how the contracts are structured, etc.

I'm not even convinced that Kaprizov signing for 8 years is optimal for this team right now, for the same reason that Goligoski (potentially) signing two 1-year deals is better than him signing one 2-year deal. Say these are the options realistically available with Kaprizov:

8 years for $9.0m AAV

5 years for $7.5m AAV + [(8 years at $10m AAV) or (trade)]

Are those extra 3 years at the back of the contract really worth the extra cap space it'll take up in the medium term, while we're cap-crunched? I think you can make arguments both ways there, but it's not exactly a catastrophe to get him at a lower cap hit with more options.

 

[57special]

"Kicking the can down the road"......I don't know what this expression exactly means?

Does it mean, "We don't know if he wants to stay here, and we don't know if we want to sign him to a 90M contract, and this just delays the decision."??

As others have said, signing an 8 year contract now likely means the next contract KK signs won't be as lucrative. He wants to sign shorter term so that he can really cash in later.

Wild, imo, want to delay a major signing of 9-10M/yr until Parise/Suter come off the books. So, if he signs 5 years, that's delightful for the team.

JFC, the guy was offered a 68M+ contract after playing 55 games in the NHL, and that's not enough? Seems to me he is looking to get out of here at this first opportunity. I hope I am wrong, but if so, Guerin has to be on top of it, and move him for as much as he can. It's taken forever to get Kaprizov here, then we have to burn a year even though he doesn't play at all... he has been about as reluctant as you can get to spend any time here in MN. Not interested in demonizing him, but if things keep going on as they are then it's time to be clear eyed about the situation, and act accordingly.

 

[MNNumbers]

JFC, the guy was offered a 68M+ contract after playing 55 games in the NHL, and that's not enough? Seems to me he is looking to get out of here at this first opportunity. I hope I am wrong, but if so, Guerin has to be on top of it, and move him for as much as he can. It's taken forever to get Kaprizov here, then we have to burn a year even though he doesn't play at all... he has been about as reluctant as you can get to spend any time here in MN. Not interested in demonizing him, but if things keep going on as they are then it's time to be clear eyed about the situation, and act accordingly.

No it's not enough. Imagine this:
Sign 8x8.5M at age 24.
Then, what do you get to sign for at 32? let's say 5x7M (forwards don't age as well, but inflation).
That's a total of 103M in earnings.

Now, reverse the sequence:
Sign for 5x7.5 =37.5M
At age 29, he will sign for a much higher AAV, like 9.5M
8x9.5M = 76m
Total of about 112M in earnings.

That's the math.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Signing Kaprizov for the 3 years that his agent wants is Guerin giving up on the situation, and probably means that he is traded before the season starts. Or he should be.

 

[57special]

Signing Kaprizov for the 3 years that his agent wants is Guerin giving up on the situation, and probably means that he is traded before the season starts. Or he should be.

Why even sign him if that's the situation? Just move his rights to another team, so they can negotiate a deal to their liking.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Why even sign him if that's the situation? Just move his rights to another team, so they can negotiate a deal to their liking.

Rangers for Lafreniere. Kaprizov makes them immediately better.