Minnesota Wild General Discussion XV

[Nino Noderreiter]

The Wild are near the bottom of the league in possession and on their PP. They are near the league leaders in high danger scoring chances--which is extremely important. However, it's going to be hard to sustain playoff level play when you're making it so hard on yourself. The Wild essentially need to generate high danger scoring chances out of a very few number of chances to generate scoring chances and generate 5 on 5 scoring.

Tough combo to not regress over larger sample sizes. I'm not sure the Wild will ever be a top possession team, but I do think that they can be better. I also think the PP can improve. I will be looking for these trends to start heading in a different direction before fully buying in.

 

[2Pair]

The Wild are near the bottom of the league in possession and on their PP. They are near the league leaders in high danger scoring chances--which is extremely important. However, it's going to be hard to sustain playoff level play when you're making it so hard on yourself. The Wild essentially need to generate high danger scoring chances out of a very few number of chances to generate scoring chances and generate 5 on 5 scoring.

Tough combo to not regress over larger sample sizes. I'm not sure the Wild will ever be a top possession team, but I do think that they can be better. I also think the PP can improve. I will be looking for these trends to start heading in a different direction before fully buying in.

What are you using to determine "possession"? Because the Wild are doing very well in all the metrics that actually matter.

 

[Nino Noderreiter]

What are you using to determine "possession"? Because the Wild are doing very well in all the metrics that actually matter.

It was a podcast I was listening to. I assume something like Corsi. I don't think the Wild are a great possession team. I stand by the assertion that being a bad possession team and bad PP team makes sustainability of success tough.

 

[Dee Oh Cee]

I've missed Sean Tierney's daily stats updates (I think he got a new job) so I'm not really sure where to find the good stuff anymore but the Wild (I'm guessing) still have great xG, xGA and xG differential stats. Corsi is outdated especially as a singular stat..it doesn't tell the whole story especially with the Wild. Volume doesn't really matter in terms of shots given up if you're not giving up the high danger chances against.

Pretty sure the team is doing just fine in terms of xG differential again. I'm still not sure they're a 'great' team, but that has much more to do with the competition they've played compared to their advanced stats.

 

[57special]

One other thing that stuck out to me when playing a fast team like Vegas was how important speed is to a good team. Guys like Rask, Bjugstad, and Parise look like they don't belong out there. Players like Sturm, Hartman, and Foligno allow us to compete. Skill, strength, and IQ are important, but if a player can't skate they have to be really, really good in one of the other areas to be useful.

 

[Nino Noderreiter]

I've missed Sean Tierney's daily stats updates (I think he got a new job) so I'm not really sure where to find the good stuff anymore but the Wild (I'm guessing) still have great xG, xGA and xG differential stats. Corsi is outdated especially as a singular stat..it doesn't tell the whole story especially with the Wild. Volume doesn't really matter in terms of shots given up if you're not giving up the high danger chances against.

Pretty sure the team is doing just fine in terms of xG differential again. I'm still not sure they're a 'great' team, but that has much more to do with the competition they've played compared to their advanced stats.

I agree and I agree with the fact that high danger chances are much more important. I would just also assert that it's hard to sustain elite high danger chance volume without the volume of opportunities to create higher danger chances. If the Wild generate a high danger scoring chance on X% of every possessions into the offensive zone, it's great that they do that at a relative percentage that's greater to other teams, but it's hard to maintain that volume in normal terms if the Wild aren't generating a lot of opportunities to generate high danger scoring chances.

I think in the short term you can have discrepancies, but long term...especially without a level of talent that's multiple standard deviations among the norm...I think it's hard to maintain that. I don't think it's controversial to say that and I don't think it's controversial to say that the Wild don't have offensive talent that's multiple standard deviations above the league norm--despite having some players (Fiala/Kaprizov) that are more talented offensive players than Wild teams have generally had in the past.

 

[2Pair]

I agree and I agree with the fact that high danger chances are much more important. I would just also assert that it's hard to sustain elite high danger chance volume without the volume of opportunities to create higher danger chances. If the Wild generate a high danger scoring chance on X% of every possessions into the offensive zone, it's great that they do that at a relative percentage that's greater to other teams, but it's hard to maintain that volume in normal terms if the Wild aren't generating a lot of opportunities to generate high danger scoring chances.

I think in the short term you can have discrepancies, but long term...especially without a level of talent that's multiple standard deviations among the norm...I think it's hard to maintain that. I don't think it's controversial to say that and I don't think it's controversial to say that the Wild don't have offensive talent that's multiple standard deviations above the league norm--despite having some players (Fiala/Kaprizov) that are more talented offensive players than Wild teams have generally had in the past.

The problem is that you're using the wrong metrics to come to the conclusion that they are not "possessing" the puck enough. Their better offensive players just aren't guys that are going to give you great corsi numbers.

 

[Nino Noderreiter]

The problem is that you're using the wrong metrics to come to the conclusion that they are not "possessing" the puck enough. Their better offensive players just aren't guys that are going to give you great corsi numbers.

I mean what’s the argument to suggest they are a good possession team? The Wild, on offense with their forwards, certainly don’t have a construction that can be categorized as above average or ideal talent wise?

I guess I would be surprised if a team with below average offensive talent is an above average possession team. I think we have a couple of elite forwards who generate high danger chances. What makes you think that we’re an above average possession team?

 

[2Pair]

I mean what’s the argument to suggest they are a good possession team? The Wild, on offense with their forwards, certainly don’t have a construction that can be categorized as above average or ideal talent wise?

I guess I would be surprised if a team with below average offensive talent is an above average possession team. I think we have a couple of elite forwards who generate high danger chances. What makes you think that we’re an above average possession team?

8th in shots for
1st in goals for
3rd in XGF
4th in XGF%
13th in SCF
5th in SCF%
1st in HDCF
2nd in HDCF%

A team that passes up a lot of shots to try and create better scoring chances, that is still 8th in shots? Yeah that's a team that has the puck more often than not.

 

[MNNumbers]

8th in shots for
1st in goals for
3rd in XGF
4th in XGF%
13th in SCF
5th in SCF%
1st in HDCF
2nd in HDCF%

A team that passes up a lot of shots to try and create better scoring chances, that is still 8th in shots? Yeah that's a team that has the puck more often than not.

That looks like a team that needs better success on the PP, and would then be top of the league

 

[GordieGallant]

That looks like a team that needs better success on the PP, and would then be top of the league

And needs to be better on face offs.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

We pass up on too many shots still.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

One other thing that stuck out to me when playing a fast team like Vegas was how important speed is to a good team. Guys like Rask, Bjugstad, and Parise look like they don't belong out there. Players like Sturm, Hartman, and Foligno allow us to compete. Skill, strength, and IQ are important, but if a player can't skate they have to be really, really good in one of the other areas to be useful.

100%

 

[2Pair]

We pass up on too many shots still.

Yeah, but that's the price you pay for having skilled playmakers. I personally would rather watch guys like Kaprizov and Zuccarello pass too much, than watch guys like Parise and Eriksson-Ek use a hockey stick like it’s a shovel.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah, but that's the price you pay for having skilled playmakers. I personally would rather watch guys like Kaprizov and Zuccarello pass too much, than watch guys like Parise and Eriksson-Ek use a hockey stick like it’s a shovel.

Eriksson Ek has a pretty good shot when he’s able to find space to use it.

 

[2Pair]

Eriksson Ek has a pretty good shot when he’s able to find space to use it.

Every hockey player above the age of 14 has a good shot if you give him as much time as he needs to load it.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Every hockey player above the age of 14 has a good shot if you give him as much time as he needs to load it.

Not when you’re grading on an NHL player curve.

 

[2Pair]

Not when you’re grading on an NHL player curve.

What's your point? On "an NHL player curve" Eriksson Ek can't shoot.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

What's your point? On "an NHL player curve" Eriksson Ek can't shoot.

He can, is my point.

 

[PANARIN BREAD FAN]

ranger fan here stopping by. it's good to see zucc recovered from injury and be the catalyst for your team like he was to for us for years.

been watching footage here and there of the wild here and there for a while now. guys like ek and foligno putting up the points. kaprizov is the goods, and the chemistry with zucc is impressive.

what i noticed on the boards here is that really not much is said about evason. this coach is doing an awesome job. tied for the same record as colorado. yeah i know - the power play is utter shit. hunt should play the point on one of the pp units.

anyway i was looking at stats for some of the players. they've gotten progressively better since this coach was hired. not sure how that translate to playoff success. but from what i've seen this team can cause a lot of headaches. probably good enough to make the 2nd round.

 

[AKL]

I think 2024 is the first year that looks somewhat reasonable for a Spurgeon buy out. 2025 might be a no brainer though.

 

[Northerner]

ranger fan here stopping by. it's good to see zucc recovered from injury and be the catalyst for your team like he was to for us for years.

been watching footage here and there of the wild here and there for a while now. guys like ek and foligno putting up the points. kaprizov is the goods, and the chemistry with zucc is impressive.

what i noticed on the boards here is that really not much is said about evason. this coach is doing an awesome job. tied for the same record as colorado. yeah i know - the power play is utter shit. hunt should play the point on one of the pp units.

anyway i was looking at stats for some of the players. they've gotten progressively better since this coach was hired. not sure how that translate to playoff success. but from what i've seen this team can cause a lot of headaches. probably good enough to make the 2nd round.

Evason. has been better than expected. I didn't think this team would be decent st all but they've played better than I expected. Sill missing a few elite forwards to be formidable in my estimation.

 

[kfan22]

If the Wild had a true Legit # 1 Center what would your expectations be this year??

 

[AKL]

If the Wild had a true Legit # 1 Center what would your expectations be this year??

Make the playoffs, maybe win a round.

 

[Northerner]

If the Wild had a true Legit # 1 Center what would your expectations be this year??

McDavid between Kaprizov and Zuccarello (or Fiala)?


That would be fun. Maybe make it to WCF.