Speculation: Mikko Rantanen Mega Thread

[Ivan13]

Nah lol

Don't bother with him. Ty is a beaut. You guys will be very happy to have him.

 

[scholl]

Except it isn't market value. One GM gives two bad contracts to RFAs. Why is this the market value? UFA contracts are not comparable.

in my opinion there is no difference. I cannot see why Rantanen would be a worse player than Panarin for example. Yet he is 5 years younger, i.e. he has more years ahead of him. It doesn't matter whether a player is UFA or RFA. What matters is the commitment to your best players. You either want to have them in your team or not. Pinching pennies and waiting is just stupid because if a star player loses confidence in that organization, game is over. When compared to Panarin, the Russian winger signed a 7 years, AAV $11.6m contract which wasn't even the highest offer. Rantanen has played 2 amazing seasons in Colorado that are comparable to Panarin's seasons in Columbus. If Panarin earns $11.6m, Rantanen shouldn't sign anything below $10m, no matter what his status is. There is no justification for $8m offers. For me that kind of ridiculous offers are just a sign that the organization wants to **** with their star players and that is not a right way to do. If they only had grinders, they wouldn't be able to sell tickets and Sakic should know that because he used to play the game.

 

[Foxtail]

in my opinion there is no difference. I cannot see why Rantanen would be a worse player than Panarin for example. Yet he is 5 years younger, i.e. he has more years ahead of him. It doesn't matter whether a player is UFA or RFA. What matters is the commitment to your best players. You either want to have them in your team or not. Pinching pennies and waiting is just stupid because if a star player loses confidence in that organization, game is over. When compared to Panarin, the Russian winger signed a 7 years, AAV $11.6m contract which wasn't even the highest offer. Rantanen has played 2 amazing seasons in Colorado that are comparable to Panarin's seasons in Columbus. If Panarin earns $11.6m, Rantanen shouldn't sign anything below $10m, no matter what his status is. There is no justification for $8m offers. For me that kind of ridiculous offers are just a sign that the organization wants to **** with their star players and that is not a right way to do. If they only had grinders, they wouldn't be able to sell tickets and Sakic should know that because he used to play the game.

The difference is the UFAs have leverage to go where they want after putting in the time and earning that right and earning that money by proving themselves


The RFAs haven't earned anything and don't have any rights or leverage. Rantanen can put himself above the team structure all he wants and can sit the season and lose out on 8 plus million and be in the same position next year.

 

[Goulet17]

in my opinion there is no difference. I cannot see why Rantanen would be a worse player than Panarin for example. Yet he is 5 years younger, i.e. he has more years ahead of him. It doesn't matter whether a player is UFA or RFA. What matters is the commitment to your best players. You either want to have them in your team or not. Pinching pennies and waiting is just stupid because if a star player loses confidence in that organization, game is over. When compared to Panarin, the Russian winger signed a 7 years, AAV $11.6m contract which wasn't even the highest offer. Rantanen has played 2 amazing seasons in Colorado that are comparable to Panarin's seasons in Columbus. If Panarin earns $11.6m, Rantanen shouldn't sign anything below $10m, no matter what his status is. There is no justification for $8m offers. For me that kind of ridiculous offers are just a sign that the organization wants to **** with their star players and that is not a right way to do. If they only had grinders, they wouldn't be able to sell tickets and Sakic should know that because he used to play the game.

How are you certain about the offers from the Avs? It seems like you are assuming things.

 

[DFC]

in my opinion there is no difference. I cannot see why Rantanen would be a worse player than Panarin for example. Yet he is 5 years younger, i.e. he has more years ahead of him. It doesn't matter whether a player is UFA or RFA. What matters is the commitment to your best players. You either want to have them in your team or not. Pinching pennies and waiting is just stupid because if a star player loses confidence in that organization, game is over. When compared to Panarin, the Russian winger signed a 7 years, AAV $11.6m contract which wasn't even the highest offer. Rantanen has played 2 amazing seasons in Colorado that are comparable to Panarin's seasons in Columbus. If Panarin earns $11.6m, Rantanen shouldn't sign anything below $10m, no matter what his status is. There is no justification for $8m offers. For me that kind of ridiculous offers are just a sign that the organization wants to **** with their star players and that is not a right way to do. If they only had grinders, they wouldn't be able to sell tickets and Sakic should know that because he used to play the game.

The difference is leverage. I know we finally saw an offer sheet this year, but that offer sheet was very telling--MTL tried to keep the picks they would give up for Aho in check. Teams aren't looking to pay huge salaries AND mortgage their future for one big name RFA.

Panarin got 11.6 because a lot of teams wanted him. Unless Rantanen brings his ask down to a place where a lot of teams can afford the money + the picks, Joe Sakic's only competition is random European teams. Thus, there is a huge difference, even in 2019, between RFA and UFA contracts. Some GMs just press that advantage better than others.

 

[Merrrlin]

The difference is leverage. I know we finally saw an offer sheet this year, but that offer sheet was very telling--MTL tried to keep the picks they would give up for Aho in check. Teams aren't looking to pay huge salaries AND mortgage their future for one big name RFA.

Panarin got 11.6 because a lot of teams wanted him. Unless Rantanen brings his ask down to a place where a lot of teams can afford the money + the picks, Joe Sakic's only competition is random European teams. Thus, there is a huge difference, even in 2019, between RFA and UFA contracts. Some GMs just press that advantage better than others.

We should probably wait to see what they sign for, and if they sign, before we decide how well some GMs are doing.

 

[Whileee]

The difference is leverage. I know we finally saw an offer sheet this year, but that offer sheet was very telling--MTL tried to keep the picks they would give up for Aho in check. Teams aren't looking to pay huge salaries AND mortgage their future for one big name RFA.

Panarin got 11.6 because a lot of teams wanted him. Unless Rantanen brings his ask down to a place where a lot of teams can afford the money + the picks, Joe Sakic's only competition is random European teams. Thus, there is a huge difference, even in 2019, between RFA and UFA contracts. Some GMs just press that advantage better than others.

Yup. The Habs made an offer to stay below the threshold of giving up even two 1st rounders for Aho. If they really thought they might get Aho, then that can only mean that they didn't want to try to entice the Canes with an extra 1st. Teams will be very reluctant to give up two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd, and extremely reluctant to give up four 1sts.

Hard to think of a team that has the picks right now that isn't also needing high picks to build up their roster over the next few years.

 

[DFC]

We should probably wait to see what they sign for, and if they sign, before we decide how well some GMs are doing.

Meh. Digging in their heels is at least a good sign they're trying to keep the AAV low. Maybe they don't, but at least they're fighting for it. I think they deserve credit for that, rather than, "Well it's 2019 so you have to make all the good players the new highest paid players in the league, even though they have no leverage whatsoever."

I think we're seeing differing philosophies on how to handle team cap. Sakic appears to be using his leverage, or at least trying to. We'll see where it goes, but he's not going down without a fight here.

 

[DFC]

Yup. The Habs made an offer to stay below the threshold of giving up even two 1st rounders for Aho. If they really thought they might get Aho, then that can only mean that they didn't want to try to entice the Canes with an extra 1st. Teams will be very reluctant to give up two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd, and extremely reluctant to give up four 1sts.

Hard to think of a team that has the picks right now that isn't also needing high picks to build up their roster over the next few years.

Yeah, the offer sheet threat pretty much faded away in July. MTL was trying to use big signing bonuses to make Carolina back off, but it turned out Carolina had big cash sitting around in piles too, so no dice.

In order to actually nab one of these star RFAs, you're gonna have to pony up the money AND the picks. It's hard to find a team who even CAN do that, but then you have to find a team in a position where it's smart to do that, and, what's more, they have to be willing.

Without the threat of offer sheets, all this talk of changing times isn't exactly a moot point, but it's not the huge over-arching fact that it's being made out to be. Yes, times are changing. But a lot of GMs seem to realize that there's no reason to let it get out of control. Sakic appears to be one of them. He's negotiating against Euro league teams, and he knows it.

 

[cgf]

This is incorrect. Barrie was not being pushed to a bottom-pairing role. Barrie was 2 seconds behind the team lead in TOI/GP in the regular season and was 5 minutes ahead of any Colorado D in the playoffs. Muzzin has always been a quality defensemen capable of effectively handling tough usage.

There is potential, but the Avalanche D is filled with a ton of question marks, at least in the roles they are expected to play.

Barrie lead the team in TOI/G from some point in January/February and was our most important skater down the stretch...but let's not let that stop some of our fanbase from pretending elsewise...

 

[Foxtail]

Barrie lead the team in TOI/G from some point in January/February and was our most important skater down the stretch...but let's not let that stop some of our fanbase from pretending elsewise...

Yet he was still traded to Vancouver first only to have the deal fall through at the draft. Johnson having a bum shoulder the whole year had a bearing on Barrie's icetime and let's not forget he was a -3 and a total basketcase for 3/4 of the season. How on earth was someone so valuable traded with salary retention to boot .

Spin it any way you like the guy was beyond terrible for most of last year. Also every single player on the team and the coaches go on about the team being improved. How is this possible?

 

[Spilot23]

Yet he was still traded to Vancouver first only to have the deal fall through at the draft. Johnson having a bum shoulder the whole year had a bearing on Barrie's icetime and let's not forget he was a -3 and a total basketcase for 3/4 of the season. How on earth was someone so valuable traded with salary retention to boot .

Spin it any way you like the guy was beyond terrible for most of last year. Also every single player on the team and the coaches go on about the team being improved. How is this possible?

Terrible is a strong word. I would use the word inconsistent in his case. Some nights Avs fans were like : OMG Barrie is so good pay that man his money. Next night Avs fans were : Trade Barrie that guy can't play defense. And when I say Avs fans I include myself some of those But it is undeniable how good he was down the stretch and how clutch he was probably him and Grubs carrying the team to the playoffs. I think or remember that most of Avs fans wanted to keep Barrie and trade EJ but we basically all knew that EJ wouldn't land someone in the caliber of Kadri.

 

[Merrrlin]

Avs fans, who plays with Landy and Mack if Rants sits?

 

[tucker3434]

Avs fans, who plays with Landy and Mack if Rants sits?

Burakovsky? Pretty much the same guy, right?

:puke:

 

[Spilot23]

Avs fans, who plays with Landy and Mack if Rants sits?

Burakovsky

I don't think he will stick there though by the way he has been playing in the preseason.

 

[PredsHead]

With Point's signing more or less setting the bar for the price of Rantanen's RFA years and Panarin setting the bar for UFA years, going to be tough for Liut to still ask for $10M per season on a long-term deal. If you take four years at Point's rate (6.75 x 4 = 27) and four years at Panarin's (11.6 x 4 = 46.4) that would give you get about $73.4M (27 + 46.4 = 73.4) on an 8 year deal or about $9.2M per year (73.4/8 = ~9.2). Even if you give Rantanen a bit more for the RFA years, say $7M per, you still only get a little over $9.3M on an 8 year deal.

 

[skyo]

maybe a 2yr $6.5M AAV contract will suffice for now, till he gets his $9.5M-$11M AAV x8.

Seems low, I suspect if it's a bridge it's closer to 8

Why would he extend for 8 years after the franchise disrespected him by forcing him to sign 2 year 6.5M AAV? The only way I would sign for 2 year 6.5M AAV is, if it is structured as 1M first year ,12M second. And even that would be a discount to the Avs.

Ok now we got two comparables in an extreme payment in Marner $10.89M x 6 and Point $6.75M x 3.

Now my 2 year $6.5M AAV doesn't seem so outlandish aha.

I guess if Sakic is smart he'll avoid the bridge as the AAV will skyrocket to Marner/Matthews levels, so to save the hassle the Avs should just offer $9M x 6 to 7 years.

 

[Merrrlin]

Ok now we got two comparables in an extreme payment in Marner $10.89M x 6 and Point $6.75M x 3.

Now my 2 year $6.5M AAV doesn't seem so outlandish aha.

I guess if Sakic is smart he'll avoid the bridge as the AAV will skyrocket to Marner/Matthews levels, so to save the hassle the Avs should just offer $9M x 6 to 7 years.

I'm confused - isn't the bridge the way to avoid the skyrocketing AAV? The 6-8 year deals are where you might see numbers in the 10's-11's. On a bridge, you can probably now sign him for 6.5ish.

edit - Oh I see what you are saying now

 

[Cousin Eddie]

With Point's signing more or less setting the bar for the price of Rantanen's RFA years and Panarin setting the bar for UFA years, going to be tough for Liut to still ask for $10M per season on a long-term deal. If you take four years at Point's rate (6.75 x 4 = 27) and four years at Panarin's (11.6 x 4 = 46.4) that would give you get about $73.4M (27 + 46.4 = 73.4) on an 8 year deal or about $9.2M per year (73.4/8 = ~9.2). Even if you give Rantanen a bit more for the RFA years, say $7M per, you still only get a little over $9.3M on an 8 year deal.

Logic. I like it. Haven’t seen a lot of it in this thread. Just people screaming and calling Sakic cheap but this post has it broken down wonderfully.

 

[yrttijorma]

With Point's signing more or less setting the bar for the price of Rantanen's RFA years and Panarin setting the bar for UFA years, going to be tough for Liut to still ask for $10M per season on a long-term deal. If you take four years at Point's rate (6.75 x 4 = 27) and four years at Panarin's (11.6 x 4 = 46.4) that would give you get about $73.4M (27 + 46.4 = 73.4) on an 8 year deal or about $9.2M per year (73.4/8 = ~9.2). Even if you give Rantanen a bit more for the RFA years, say $7M per, you still only get a little over $9.3M on an 8 year deal.

What you are missing is that Rantanen would tie his UFA year prices this year (Panarin's UFA year price). If he signed bridge deal with let's say 7M-7.5M AAV, after 3 years his next contract would have bigger AAV than what Panarin has now (cap going up, new TV deal kicking in after 2 years).

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Joe Sakic’s gonna get his way again.

 

[PredsHead]

Logic. I like it. Haven’t seen a lot of it in this thread. Just people screaming and calling Sakic cheap but this post has it broken down wonderfully.

Thanks. I am probably a bit low on my RFA years as I don't know how to factor in what the last RFA year is worth. Most players are signing deals where the last year has a much higher salary to make the QO as high as possible on the last RFA year. However, most of those players will be signed to a long-term deal instead playing out the one year QO, so not sure that QO should count as their salary for the last year. The value of that last year will be negotiated into the long-term deal they sign. Even if we use Point's deal and figure he gets his QO, that would be (5.25+6+9+9=29.25) for the RFA years and still (46.4) for the UFA years would give us $75.65M (29.25+46.4=75.65) on an 8 year deal or $9.45M.

 

[PredsHead]

What you are missing is that Rantanen would tie his UFA year prices this year (Panarin's UFA year price). If he signed bridge deal with let's say 7M-7.5M AAV, after 3 years his next contract would have bigger AAV than what Panarin has now (cap going up, new TV deal kicking in after 2 years).

Yes, but he would also be turning down around $50M in guaranteed money if the Avs where offering something like I suggested. Some players want security, others are willing to gamble on themselves. Will be interesting to see which one Rantanen chooses.

 

[yrttijorma]

Yes, but he would also be turning down around $50M in guaranteed money if the Avs where offering something like I suggested. Some players want security, others are willing to gamble on themselves. Will be interesting to see which one Rantanen chooses.

Yeah you have a point there and as far as I've understood, Rantanen is looking for a longer contract. And clearly Sakic is not willing to pay big enough AAV. But let's see how this pans out, hopefully soon.

 

[Muffin]

Marner money is a pipedream for Rantanen. Guessing 9-9.5M for 7 - 8 years or a short term deal in the 6.5-7M range.