Just a comparison...a guy like Oscar Lindblom seems to be a guy worthy of getting excited about. Putting up good numbers playing in the SHL something that I can get up for.
Confirmed with Link: May 28, 2015: Flyers sign Radel Fazleev to entry level contract
- Thread starter Hiesenberg
- Start date
Striiker
Earthquake Survivor
Can someone just make a list of who I am and am not allowed to be excited about?
For ****s sake, I want to know what's acceptable and what's not.
Obviously we have Fazleev and Myers in the "No" column and Lindblom in the "Yes" column.
Where does Ghost go? Sanheim? Provorov?
Do we have a separate "Worry" column for Morin?
For ****s sake, I want to know what's acceptable and what's not.
Obviously we have Fazleev and Myers in the "No" column and Lindblom in the "Yes" column.
Where does Ghost go? Sanheim? Provorov?
Do we have a separate "Worry" column for Morin?
Maybe he becomes a Troy Bouwer, or Marcus Kruger or Andrew Shaw. Those are quality depth forwards taken later in the draft that helped Chicago wins cups and continue to put forth a competitive team even after seasons of salary cap hell and purges. Maybe Marody becomes a Versteeg like player. Not every forward who helps a team win a cup is a superstar. You do need 3-4 line forwards too.
So wait, is it the rule on here that I have to agree with everything? You can be as excited as you want, I was just saying I am not getting excited about them. Is there a list of players I should be excited about? Does it just say "ALL FLYERS PROSPECTS NOT NAMED GOULBOURNE" with a seperate section that says "EVERYONE ELSE'S PROSPECTS SUCK UNLESS THERE IS A RUMOR OUT THERE THAT SAYS THEY MAY BECOME A FLYER SO THEN IN THAT CASE THEY ARE GOOD BUT STILL WE CAN'T GIVE UP ANYTHING TO GET THEM BECAUSE ASSET MANAGEMENT" or something like that?
Curufinwe
Registered User
- Feb 28, 2013
- 55,784
- 42,859
Striiker
Earthquake Survivor
Absolutely...and again, from the beginning I am not saying that I think Fazeleev sucks or will never amount to anything or anything like that. Just that a 20 year old in the WHL putting up good numbers is nothing out of the ordinary and nothing to get worked up over. Next year on the Phantoms, presumably, if he continues then yeah, it will be a lot easier to project and be excited.
He'll be 20 in under a month.
EDIT: And if that isn't good enough then change what I said to "Draft year +2" and you get the same result.
Tripod
I hate this team
19 years old.
And again, how many of the guys you are refering to got invited to a WJC camp?
Plus, it's about expectations. If Sanheim didn't make TC WJC this year...big disappointment....much like Del Colle for the NYI.
Where Fazleev was drafted, this was not expected. So yeah, some are excited because he might have a future and is exceeding his expectations. Will it last? Who knows.
Last edited:
flyershockey
Registered User
- Oct 10, 2006
- 13,466
- 6,569
Tripod
I hate this team
1 more thing.
If it's way to early to get excited over prospects when they play above expectations, why is not too early to be concerned when they play below them?
If it's way to early to get excited over prospects when they play above expectations, why is not too early to be concerned when they play below them?
Curufinwe
Registered User
- Feb 28, 2013
- 55,784
- 42,859
1 more thing.
If it's way to early to get excited over prospects when they play above expectations, why is not too early to be concerned when they play below them?
That's a very interesting question.
Well, many of the guys to which I am referring in terms of leading the Canadian Junior teams are Canadian, which has much more talent from which to choose than other countries. Look at Russia's roster. Half the team is undrafted, so it is apples to oranges.
You can make light of that all you want, but this team is desperate for young forwards and we have a glut of young defensemen. One of our big guys is going to be traded at some point.
1 more thing.
If it's way to early to get excited over prospects when they play above expectations, why is not too early to be concerned when they play below them?
For one thing, I am not saying that it is ok to be concerned when they play below expectations for a guy two years after his draft year. There is not a prospect in this organization from this year or last year's draft that I am saying is bust or looking like a bust or anything like that. Why? Because it is way too early to make that call. Just like a good season in juniors doesn't make me think that they are any more likely to make an NHL impact than they were they day they were drafted. Now, if Fazleev was doubling up on guys in points and having a truly special year or is having a similar season in a Euro-pro league or the AHL, that is a different story. That would get me excited. But if he's doing something that other guys his age are doing, I don't understand why folks are acting like this guy is any more likely to make it to the NHL than the slew of other players in the same situation (or draft year if you want to pretend like being 19 and 350 days is somehow more impressive than if he was 20 and ten days).
The only guy I called into question was Morin, who is three years post draft, and I was talking about his failure to make the team in a hypothetical situation NEXT year at four years post-draft. Which apparently is ridiculous and I am a contrarian and the presence of three other (or four if you count Hagg) highly touted defensemen that appear to be projecting better than he is has no impact on Morin or his ability to make this team.
Appleyard
Registered User
For me my 'excitement' over Fazleev can be explained as thus:
He is a 6th round pick.
At best he is likely a 3rd liner who can PK.
At worst he is likely a decent AHLer/top Euro leaguer.
Most likely? Either a 4th liner or good 2-way Euro Leaguer.
But the fact we have a 6th rounder who 18 months after being drafted probably has a ~50% shot at playing in the NHL in some capacity (be it 1 game or 300.) and is likely going to the WJC, at a point when ~75% of guys drafted after the 4th round have already shown they have a minimal chance of ever being an NHLer, is a bit 'exciting'.
Picks like Gostisbehere, Cousins, Aube-Kubel, Hagg, Stolarz, Friedman, Lindblom, Leier, Fazleev, Madsen being drafted after the 1st round is just fantastic for the organisation... we have not had many wasted picks since 2012 tbh, and it seems like we are going to get a decent number of NHLers from these guys (without including the 2015 later round guys, who look promising as well)
I mean, from 2002 to 2010 the best guy we drafted outside the 1st was probably either Colin Fraser or Pat Maroon tbh!
Hitting on later picks is key in todays NHL to build a contender.
He is a 6th round pick.
At best he is likely a 3rd liner who can PK.
At worst he is likely a decent AHLer/top Euro leaguer.
Most likely? Either a 4th liner or good 2-way Euro Leaguer.
But the fact we have a 6th rounder who 18 months after being drafted probably has a ~50% shot at playing in the NHL in some capacity (be it 1 game or 300.) and is likely going to the WJC, at a point when ~75% of guys drafted after the 4th round have already shown they have a minimal chance of ever being an NHLer, is a bit 'exciting'.
Picks like Gostisbehere, Cousins, Aube-Kubel, Hagg, Stolarz, Friedman, Lindblom, Leier, Fazleev, Madsen being drafted after the 1st round is just fantastic for the organisation... we have not had many wasted picks since 2012 tbh, and it seems like we are going to get a decent number of NHLers from these guys (without including the 2015 later round guys, who look promising as well)
I mean, from 2002 to 2010 the best guy we drafted outside the 1st was probably either Colin Fraser or Pat Maroon tbh!
Hitting on later picks is key in todays NHL to build a contender.
Tripod
I hate this team
DFF...it's all about making use of the assets.
Fazleev was a 6th round pick who today, probably has the value of a 3rd rounder. THAT'S A GOOD THING.
You say 2 years is not enough time to judge, but it is done all the time. That is why certain drafted guys never even get a contract offer...because they did not progress.
Fazleev has. We used 5th and 6th rounders on guys that are now valued at 2nd and 3rd rounders. That gives up possible better trading ability, more of a logjam in prospects later on, the ability to trade a player for another future pick which further builds the pipleline to be longer.
Do you think the NYI are worried about MDC not making Team Canada and only having 23 points in 27 games this year? I bet they are.
Again, no one is saying he is a savior or even a top 6 guy in the future. But god forbid we get excited because 2 years later his exceeding expectations of where he was drafted.
You need to enjoy life more.
Fazleev was a 6th round pick who today, probably has the value of a 3rd rounder. THAT'S A GOOD THING.
You say 2 years is not enough time to judge, but it is done all the time. That is why certain drafted guys never even get a contract offer...because they did not progress.
Fazleev has. We used 5th and 6th rounders on guys that are now valued at 2nd and 3rd rounders. That gives up possible better trading ability, more of a logjam in prospects later on, the ability to trade a player for another future pick which further builds the pipleline to be longer.
Do you think the NYI are worried about MDC not making Team Canada and only having 23 points in 27 games this year? I bet they are.
Again, no one is saying he is a savior or even a top 6 guy in the future. But god forbid we get excited because 2 years later his exceeding expectations of where he was drafted.
You need to enjoy life more.
Appleyard
Registered User
I think the best thing about that 2014 draft is that if there was a re-draft all our top 5 picks go higher than they did, or stay ~the same... and the first 5 taken (Sanheim, Aube-Kubel, Lindblom, Friedman & Fazleev) would all certainly be taken top 90.
I think you are being a little too generous with the "at worst" categorization of Fazleev and the "most likely" categorization. The kid is in Juniors right now. Playing well for sure, but still in Juniors. At worst he can't cut it in the AHL or whatever Euro league he flees to if he can't make it there. Saying that he is most likely going to be a 4th liner in the NHL (or a good 2 way Euro leaguer) is giving him a lot of credit for his play this season, in which he is in his second year post being drafted. Certainly a possibility, but I don't think that I would say his most likely scenario is a 4th liner in the NHL. That is why these posts get the response from me that they get. If this guy was a Penguins prospect or a Rangers prospect, I'd be willing to bet he wouldn't be looked as favorably by most around here.
I can't stress enough that I am not saying Fazleev sucks or is not going to be an NHLer or anything like that. I just don't think this season really changes much in terms of his outlook or makes him look any better than his contemporaries.
I'm not sure if they are or not. I know I wouldn't be if I were the Islanders. He's not having a great year, for sure, but it is 27 games. I certainly wouldn't be happy with his performance but I also wouldn't think that his last 27 games for some reason overshadow the rest of his junior career. Just like if Fazleev goes on a slump for 27 games I wouldn't expect anyone here to forget about him and say he is a bust. Although maybe I should expect that since it would appear that those reactions are more acceptable than waiting and seeing how things turn out.
I enjoy life plenty! Arguing with you knuckleheads is an enjoyable way to distract myself from real work!
JDinkalage Morgoone
U of South Flurrida
BackToTheBrierePatch
Justice for Cricket
Appleyard
Registered User
But his floor being that of a AHLer/top euro leaguer is extremely realistic, as is his ceiling as a 3rd liner. Going off his PPG (before even considering his defensive play) it would be pretty unprecedented/unlikely he cannot fulfil a permanent role in the AHL/KHL/SHL/Liiga in his 20's... I mean, honestly, it is a ~90+% chance he is good enough for that level, especially when his skating, size and two-way play is considered.
And looking at historical prospects with his production at his age a ~50% chance of playing in the NHL seems to be pretty fair. Ofc every case is individual... but if Fazleev is not at worst a middle sixer in the KHL in 5 years it would be very surprising.
Honestly, at a draft+2 stage broad-ish projections can be made and will generally be quite accurate. Draft+1 is a different kettle of fish though, far more variance going forward actually.
Last edited:
Random Forest
Registered User
- May 12, 2010
- 14,453
- 995
Again, DFF, you hear someone use the term "excited", and you associate it with being gung-ho, delusional about a player's projection.
Expectations are relative. That means "excitement" is relative. Excitement means different things when talking about a prospect like Provorov or Konecny vs. a prospect like Fazleev or Myers.
Let's say every 4th-7th round pick is a $1 investment. We invested $1 in Fazleev. ~80% of similar investments are now worth maybe ~$.50, but Fazleev is still worth $1 or slightly more. People are "excited" that our investment is beating the market for now. That's all. No underlying delusion. No outlandish expectations of Fazleev turning into a top six forward. Just satisfaction that our investment is moving along at a pace better than his counterparts.
Certainly none of this either: "EVERYONE ELSE'S PROSPECTS SUCK". I'm somehow always surprised by your blatant strawmen when I remember that you're apparently an attorney. You should be better at interpreting opposing arguments when they're explicitly spelled out for you in detail.
Expectations are relative. That means "excitement" is relative. Excitement means different things when talking about a prospect like Provorov or Konecny vs. a prospect like Fazleev or Myers.
Let's say every 4th-7th round pick is a $1 investment. We invested $1 in Fazleev. ~80% of similar investments are now worth maybe ~$.50, but Fazleev is still worth $1 or slightly more. People are "excited" that our investment is beating the market for now. That's all. No underlying delusion. No outlandish expectations of Fazleev turning into a top six forward. Just satisfaction that our investment is moving along at a pace better than his counterparts.
Certainly none of this either: "EVERYONE ELSE'S PROSPECTS SUCK". I'm somehow always surprised by your blatant strawmen when I remember that you're apparently an attorney. You should be better at interpreting opposing arguments when they're explicitly spelled out for you in detail.
deadhead
Registered User
- Feb 26, 2014
- 49,215
- 21,617
Every prospect is a question mark until they've started a few years in the NHL, we're still waiting for Laughton, for example.
However, if Fazleev wasn't scoring at his current pace, he'd be a very longshot, we've seen lots of "gritty" 6th rd types go to die on the Phantoms. Nor is he "too slow" or otherwise an unlikely success due to physical limitations. He should fill out to 6'1 190-200, good size for a 3rd/4th line forward. And he's responsible defensively.
What you can say is "so far, so good," his odds of success have increased substantially because he continues to make progress. His scoring doesn't guarantee success, but if he wasn't scoring, it would substantially lengthen the odds against him.
A similar analysis applies to Philippe Myers, draft +1 he's putting up close to elite numbers, he has great size and good mobility, throw out his nondrafted status, he's performing way above pre-draft expectations, where his lack of production probably convinced scouts he was a "tweener," not dominant defensively to fill that role, and with limited offensive skills. His post-draft performance improves his odds of NHL success by a huge amount, since few defensemen his size show that combination of skills and production.
Really, all you can do with any prospect is monitor their progress. Are they living up to, exceeding or falling short of expectations, then adjusting the original scouting report to account for progress or lack of such. Someone like Konecny is exceeding an already high evaluation, and is worth getting excited over. But Fazleev is also exceeding his expectation, and that at least is reason for hope.
However, if Fazleev wasn't scoring at his current pace, he'd be a very longshot, we've seen lots of "gritty" 6th rd types go to die on the Phantoms. Nor is he "too slow" or otherwise an unlikely success due to physical limitations. He should fill out to 6'1 190-200, good size for a 3rd/4th line forward. And he's responsible defensively.
What you can say is "so far, so good," his odds of success have increased substantially because he continues to make progress. His scoring doesn't guarantee success, but if he wasn't scoring, it would substantially lengthen the odds against him.
A similar analysis applies to Philippe Myers, draft +1 he's putting up close to elite numbers, he has great size and good mobility, throw out his nondrafted status, he's performing way above pre-draft expectations, where his lack of production probably convinced scouts he was a "tweener," not dominant defensively to fill that role, and with limited offensive skills. His post-draft performance improves his odds of NHL success by a huge amount, since few defensemen his size show that combination of skills and production.
Really, all you can do with any prospect is monitor their progress. Are they living up to, exceeding or falling short of expectations, then adjusting the original scouting report to account for progress or lack of such. Someone like Konecny is exceeding an already high evaluation, and is worth getting excited over. But Fazleev is also exceeding his expectation, and that at least is reason for hope.
Ad
Latest posts
-
A loser mentality has contamined the Leafs dressing room.
- Latest: Norwegianoiler
-
-
Upcoming events
-
2024 NHL Draft Lottery Team that wins #1 pick - PICK ONLY ONE TEAMWagers: 17Staked: $19,742.00Event closes- Updated:
-
Stanley Cup 2024 Stanley Cup Champion - ONLY BET ONE TEAMWagers: 10Staked: $17,327.00Event closes- Updated:
-
Game 2 Carolina Hurricanes @ NY Rangers - NYR leads 1-0Wagers: 4Staked: $2,309.00Event closes
- Updated:
-
