Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part V

[Jozay]

He wants to be the highest paid winger in the league eh?

First it was 12 or 11 keep Marner from going to July 1, now its 10.5. Good to see it coming down. Slowly but surely.

 

[BallardEra]

The problem with today's contracts in general is that they are handed out more for future potential than what have you already done for me.

That seems to be the trend of the league in general with these up and coming young stars.

 

[MyBudJT]

Oh, we’re going on just total points now on their best elc season? That’s interesting.

Well.. shouldn’t Nylander have made far less than Pastrnak and his 34 goals/70 points? Also, compare Matthews point totals (73, lol) to other centres who signed post elc contracts at around 15% of the cap.

There is NO consistency here.

Kane scored MORE goals and points over his elc than Marner.

Yes, Nylander SHOULD have got far less than Pastrnak...

Matthews is also overpaid, but he's got the goalscoring factor that has him in a very unique position. Also, the 73 points was an 88 point pace...

I am fairly consistent with my views.

I'm not even stating Kane is a poor comparable. I asked what the precedent was for a 94 point U22 forward. Kane was an 88 points U22 forward. Goal difference is negligible, really.

The highest I'd go with Marner is Kane + 7%, which is approximately 9.85M x 5yrs.

Anything higher than that, I'd agree is unprecedented.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

First it was 12 or 11 keep Marner from going to July 1, now its 10.5. Good to see it coming down. Slowly but surely.

We’re all just being played with this stuff, and it’s entirely orchestrated.

Leaf fan expectations (and media projections) has Matthews at around 10x5/11.5x8. (And that’s on the high end).

Then a week before he signed his contract, the media started spinning a false 13 mil aav rumour. Everybody panicked and screamed bloody murder.

Then a few days later he signs for 11.6x5. A number that would have outraged everybody a week earlier.. but now everyone just said “Not ideal, but at least it’s not 13x5. Good job Dubas”.

It’s a flat out game, and the media are in cahoots with it.

 

[4thline]

Most other gm’s can get their players to sign fair market value without chasing them out of town.

I mean... my standards aren’t ridiculous here. I just want fair market value based on league wide precedent. I just don’t want the entire market to be reset with every new contract dubas gives out.

Your standards aren't ridiculous, just naive and a little petulant. You refuse to look at the actual mechanics of the situation and the manner in which players can leverage market forces and instead whine about not getting what the neighbour got.

Market value as determined by comparables does not necessarily equal value as determined by the market under the rules of the CBA.

 

[Advanced stats]

He wants to be the highest paid winger in the league eh?

Once again, derger doesn't know poop.

Secondly, 10.5 long-term wouldn't be terrible at all.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Yes, Nylander SHOULD have got far less than Pastrnak...

Matthews is also overpaid, but he's got the goalscoring factor that has him in a very unique position. Also, the 73 points was an 88 point pace...

I am fairly consistent with my views.

I'm not even stating Kane is a poor comparable. I asked what the precedent was for a 94 point U22 forward. Kane was an 88 points U22 forward. Goal difference is negligible, really.

The highest I'd go with Marner is Kane + 7%, which is approximately 9.85M x 5yrs.

Anything higher than that, I'd agree is unprecedented.

At least you agree that Nylander is heavily overpaid.

But now you’re saying goal scoring counts? Ok. Marner never had a u/22 30 goal season. Kane did. Isn’t that just as valid an argument as you saying Kane never had a 90 point season?

 

[IPS]

Once again, derger doesn't know poop.

Secondly, 10.5 long-term wouldn't be terrible at all.

10.5 makes him by far the highest paid winger in the league and is above and beyond all precedent.

It's pretty terrible bro.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Your standards aren't ridiculous, just naive and a little petulant. You refuse to look at the actual mechanics of the situation and the manner in which players can leverage market forces and instead whine about not getting what the neighbour got.

Market value as determined by comparables does not necessarily equal value as determined by the market under the rules of the CBA.

I would counter by saying that you refuse to acknowledge the gm’s responsibility in all this. You’re claiming that there are these outside forces that are outside of Dubas control.

I’d say that there are ALWAYS such outside forces. Some gm’s are just better than others. Maybe it wasn’t the best time for a flat out rookie gm.

Teravainen has a 60 point season at 23, and on pace for 70 this year when he signed his contract. 5.4x5

Where were all these “outside forces” for the Canes gm?

Can you IMAGINE if Johnsson (same age as TT) scores 60 point 2 seasons ago, and 76 last year? Can you IMAGINE how much more than 5.4x5 Dubas would give him?

 

[IPS]

I would counter by saying that you refuse to acknowledge the gm’s responsibility in all this. You’re claiming that there are these outside forces that are outside of Dubas control.

I’d say that there are ALWAYS such outside forces. Some gm’s are just better than others. Maybe it wasn’t the best time for a flat out rookie gm.

You think Dubas is the only player in this?

Shanahan has the responsibility of casting his own crew to negotiate with the RFA's.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You think Dubas is the only player in this?

Shanahan has the responsibility of casting his own crew to negotiate with the RFA's.

I blame the entire management team for these dramatic unprecedented overpayments.

 

[Advanced stats]

10.5 makes him by far the highest paid winger in the league and is above and beyond all precedent.

It's pretty terrible bro.

Cap percentage is your friend.

Within a few years of that hypothetical deal, it'd look like a solid contract. Much the same as the way Draisital's deal was criticized and is now praised.

 

[ACC1224]

A completely predicted great year with a great linemate with a history of elevating his wingers whom tend to come back down to earth once they are no longer his linemates.

What happened to others isn't any proof that it will happen to Marner.
I don't believe any had his pedigree.
Which of his former linemates remind you of Mitch?

Shame Dubas couldn't predict it.

 

[Mess]

I asked what the precedent was for a 94 point U22 forward...

Patrick Kane didn't hit 90 points until his U28 season (albeit, he was on pace to pass it in the lockout shortened season, his U25 season).

In 2014-15 Benn won the scoring title with just 87 points, scoring has increased significantly in the past few seasons with the new rules and smaller goalie equipment.

 

[m1ker]

the only upside in all this, once we get rid of zeits and marleau at least the cap is pretty clean and the bulk of the money is in good investments

 

[IPS]

Cap percentage is your friend.

Within a few years of that hypothetical deal, it'd look like a solid contract. Much the same as the way Draisital's deal was criticized and is now praised.

Uh yeah, I'm making that statement under the cap% line of reasoning.
...

Patrick Kane signed for 11% on a 5 year deal after an extremely comparable ELC to Marner, and he also won a cup with having an exceptional postseason to boot....

$10.5M long term is an unprecedented contract for a winger that has literally never been done before.

 

[IPS]

I blame the entire management team for these dramatic unprecedented overpayments.

So how come you think Toronto - with all the money in the world to assemble a world-class negotiating team (a GM isn't the only one doing the leg-work of negotiating) - is doing such a horrific job? Honest question.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

So how come you think Toronto - with all the money in the world to assemble a world-class negotiating team (a GM isn't the only one doing the leg-work of negotiating) - is doing such a horrific job? Honest question.

I’m guessing management at large overestimated the rookie gm’s abilities.

I can borderline guarantee you that they regret that decision.

The leafs have been among the top richest teams the entire cap era. There were still ENDLESS management blunders, as proven by the team STILL not winning a playoff series, 20 some odd years later.

 

[MyBudJT]

At least you agree that Nylander is heavily overpaid.

But now you’re saying goal scoring counts? Ok. Marner never had a u/22 30 goal season. Kane did. Isn’t that just as valid an argument as you saying Kane never had a 90 point season?

Kane scored only 4 more goals than Marner did, and 5 more on the powerplay. Chicago's powerplay that season was 22.5%, Toronto's this season was 18.8%.


I tend not to look at EV Production separately of total production, I think its people primarily making data fit their narrative... but I was curious, so take this for what its worth to you:

U22 Season EV Production:
Mitch Marner: 70P
Patrick Kane: 58P

Kane has only reached 70+EV Prodocution points once in his career, and that was this season

This is the company Marner is in, in the last 25 years:

 

[m1ker]

So how come you think Toronto - with all the money in the world to assemble a world-class negotiating team (a GM isn't the only one doing the leg-work of negotiating) - is doing such a horrific job? Honest question.

I blame the NHL. What kind of leverage do you think management has?

 

[4thline]

I would counter by saying that you refuse to acknowledge the gm’s responsibility in all this. You’re claiming that there are these outside forces that are outside of Dubas control.

I’d say that there are ALWAYS such outside forces. Some gm’s are just better than others. Maybe it wasn’t the best time for a flat out rookie gm.

Outside market force is a sprectrum, the strength of which is determined by the CBA and the desirability of the player. The decision of how hard to leverage that force belongs to the player. If a high end player with heavy market force is willing to use it completely the gm is really just along for the ride.

Some gm's are better than others, but judging that based on outcomes that are determined primarily by the financial motivations of players that can name their own price tags is flat out asinine.

"Peter Chiarelli is a good contract negotiator because McDavid is a 1/100 person that negotiated himself down for the good of company and Kyle Dubas is a bad negotiator because Matthews is a normal person that used the leverage at his disposal" is a flat out idiotic statement.

 

[Advanced stats]

Uh yeah, I'm making that statement under the cap% line of reasoning.
...

Patrick Kane signed for 11% on a 5 year deal after an extremely comparable ELC to Marner, and he also won a cup with having an exceptional postseason to boot....

$10.5M long term is an unprecedented contract for a winger that has literally never been done before.

Personally I'd rather have marner at 10.5 x 8 than at 9.2x 5....which is the 11% comparable. I'm ok with paying for term.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Kane scored only 4 more goals than Marner did, and 5 more on the powerplay. Chicago's powerplay that season was 22.5%, Toronto's this season was 18.8%.


I tend not to look at EV Production separately of total production, I think its people primarily making data fit their narrative... but I was curious, so take this for what its worth to you:

U22 Season EV Production:
Mitch Marner: 70P
Patrick Kane: 58P

Kane has only reached 70+EV Prodocution points once in his career, and that was this season

This is the company Marner is in, in the last 25 years:
View attachment 237561

So Kane scores more goals and points than Marner over elc. He gets 28 playoff points in 20 games and wins a cup. His career high in goals is higher than a Marners. He’s far better on the PP.

But all of that gets outweighed by the fact that his career high was (lol) 6 points higher. I also love that Kane’s 5 extra career high goals is entirely insignificant.. but Marners six extra career high points means the world.

It’s nuts.

 

[MyBudJT]

In 2014-15 Benn won the scoring title with just 87 points, scoring has increased significantly in the past few seasons with the new rules and smaller goalie equipment.

Scoring is up, but not that much.

I'm Comparing U22 Kane to U22 Marner.

Top scorer's in 2009/2010 (Kane's U22 year)

Top scorers in 2018/2019 (Marner's U22 year)

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Outside market force is a sprectrum, the strength of which is determined by the CBA and the desirability of the player. The decision of how hard to leverage that force belongs to the player. If a high end player with heavy market force is willing to use it completely the gm is really just along for the ride.

Some gm's are better than others, but judging that based on outcomes that are determined primarily by the financial motivations of players that can name their own price tags is flat out asinine.

"Peter Chiarelli is a good contract negotiator because McDavid is a 1/100 person that negotiated himself down for the good of company and Kyle Dubas is a bad negotiator because Matthews is a normal person that used the leverage at his disposal" is a flat out idiotic statement.

Maybe the Oilers gm was more convincing at getting McDavid to buy into a team first system than Dubas was. If the gm has no bearing in any of this, why does the role even exist? They’re just people giving out blank cheque’s hoping for the kindness of their players?