Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part V

[biotk]

Flyers fan coming in peace. If it comes to Dubas having to make a trade, I think the Flyers match up well and here are some of the main pieces I could see being available from the Flyers POV.

Gostisbehere
Oskar Lindblom
Farabee
Frost
11th overall
2020 Picks
Large Group of prospects with NHL futures.

I don't see any deal being done without a good RHD coming back to Toronto as the centerpiece. The Leafs have Rielly, Muzzin, Dermott and Rosen as LHD. Nothing for RHD.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Flyers fan coming in peace. If it comes to Dubas having to make a trade, I think the Flyers match up well and here are some of the main pieces I could see being available from the Flyers POV.

Gostisbehere
Oskar Lindblom
Farabee
Frost
11th overall
2020 Picks
Large Group of prospects with NHL futures.

Here’s a good exercise. What’s the most insanely valuable asset on your team that you would be devastated to see get traded.

 

[nobody]

Flyers fan coming in peace. If it comes to Dubas having to make a trade, I think the Flyers match up well and here are some of the main pieces I could see being available from the Flyers POV.

Gostisbehere
Oskar Lindblom
Farabee
Frost
11th overall
2020 Picks
Large Group of prospects with NHL futures.

Honestly, I think the only way Flyers get Marner is via offer-sheet. And even then I would match. From the list you have provided I see nothing but middle 6 players and Ghost who is a joke of an NHL player. We have had one of him in Jake Gardiner and some of us Leafs fans are counting down the days till he walks. If it were Willy however, I would probably work out a deal with the Flyers.

I think the Leafs will refuse to trade Mitch as they should and only way I can see him walking via offer-sheet is 1. if he signs it and 2. it's a bottom dweller with no hopes of contending for a playoff/ cup for the foreseeable future. Mitch is a fantastic player but he can't alone lead a team without a good supporting cast. Flyers have way too good of a team and having a player like Mitch most likely puts them as cup favorites in that division.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Like I said earlier, I'm just looking for consistency. Something they are lacking.

I personally think 10-11 mil at 6years is to much for marner. But that also 7 x 6 is to much for nylander.

Where as they seem to think the nylander contract is fine but marner needs to sign at 10 x 8.

If you saw the arvidsson part you will know they have no issue with nylander making ~2.75 mil more. Well using the same scale marner is worth 10-11 mil for 6 years.

You say consistent like you have any clue what my historical opinions are. If you did (and you were smart) you wouldn't be wasting your time lumping Malkin's PP and 5v5 stats together and comparing to Matthews' as though you're going to influence in me some way. Or maybe you just have lots of free time.

I'm still pretty consistent, except since EW released their salary cap model and indicated they found that goals and p1 tend to weigh more into contract value for forwards than a2, I may have done some of my analysis a bit differently:

Salary Cap: - Marner Deal Discussion

Eichel's ELC is a close recent production comparable for the majority of Marner's ELC. However Marner produced at a torrid rate in year 3 when JT came on board. I've mentioned elsewhere that I could see the sticking point in negotiations being if Marner is the Marner of year 1 & 2 or if he's the year 3 (was probably a similar sticking point for Nylander negotiations). If they can't get by that, probably a 3yr bridge works in the realm of $8.5m. Otherwise they'd probably meet in the middle somewhere in-between $10-11m long term. A lot of what will determine where this lands relative to someone like Eichel will be the above, probably the question of centre v.s. winger, value to franchise (as per arbitration process), and as you inconsistently bring up, QoT. I don't know how that should play into the picture of what he finally signs for, but I'm sure you'll pretend like you do.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Honestly, I think the only way Flyers get Marner is via offer-sheet. And even then I would match. From the list you have provided I see nothing but middle 6 players and Ghost who is a joke of an NHL player. We have had one of him in Jake Gardiner and some of us Leafs fans are counting down the days till he walks. If it were Willy however, I would probably work out a deal with the Flyers.

I think the Leafs will refuse to trade Mitch as they should and only way I can see him walking via offer-sheet is 1. if he signs it and 2. it's a bottom dweller with no hopes of contending for a playoff/ cup for the foreseeable future. Mitch is a fantastic player but he can't alone lead a team without a good supporting cast. Flyers have way too good of a team and having a player like Mitch most likely puts them as cup favorites in that division.

They will have to look at trading him if he keeps asking for the moon. They can not drag this out. This is holding up everything else that needs to be done to build this roster for next season. I am sorry, but this can't go on till December. They will have to move on without him pretty soon if he doesn't sign.

 

[4thline]

Using a cap adjusted Kane 2nd contract comparable and scaling up at 300k-500k per UFA year bought you get a "fair" range of

9-9.3 x 5
9.3-9.8 x 6
9.6-10.3 x 7
9.9- 10.8 x8

 

[MyBudJT]

Using a cap adjusted Kane 2nd contract comparable and scaling up at 300k-500k per UFA year bought you get a "fair" range of

9-9.3 x 5
9.3-9.8 x 6
9.6-10.3 x 7
9.9- 10.8 x8

Now factor in an extra %10 because that seems to be the premium Dubas hands our top RFAs

 

[Nithoniniel]

Nith cant seem to face this because he seems to be overly attached to nylander. He's swedish so there is some conflict of interest there. I'm not sure what your problem is though.

What I can face is that market value is not based on a simplistic, linear formula like you are suggesting. I also base my opinion on contract value based on said market, which I promise you don't care at all about Nylander or his nationality.

 

[4thline]

Now factor in an extra %10 because that seems to be the premium Dubas hands our top RFAs

Nylander should have been 6.3-6.7. That's 4.5% from the upper bound.
Matthews should have been ~10.6- 11. That's 5.5% from the upper bound.

Throw 5% onto the Marner ranges

9.77 x 5
10.29 x 6
10.8 x 7
11.34x 8

 

[MyBudJT]

Nylander should have been 6.3-6.7. That's 4.5% from the upper bound.
Matthews should have been ~10.6- 11. That's 5.5% from the upper bound.

Throw 5% onto the Marner ranges

9.77 x 5
10.29 x 6
10.8 x 7
11.34x 8

I disagree. Being nit picky I guess, but Nylander,s upperbound was 6.5, tops. I Also think your Matthews’ upperbound is a little high. Let’s split the difference and say 7% overpaid

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I disagree. Being nit picky I guess, but Nylander,s upperbound was 6.5, tops. I Also think your Matthews’ upperbound is a little high. Let’s split the difference and say 7% overpaid

Out of curiosity, 6.5 tops based on what?

 

[4thline]

I disagree. Being nit picky I guess, but Nylander,s upperbound was 6.5, tops. I Also think your Matthews’ upperbound is a little high. Let’s split the difference and say 7% overpaid

Those upper bounds are based on the same sort of wiggle room I used for Marner's range. I think 500k per year UFA scale up is high, and the Kane comparable is actually in the 9.15-9.2 range (depending on where this years cap settles) with Kane having a slightly better resume. If you want to nitpick it cuts both ways.

 

[ULF_55]

Nylander should have been 6.3-6.7. That's 4.5% from the upper bound.
Matthews should have been ~10.6- 11. That's 5.5% from the upper bound.

Throw 5% onto the Marner ranges

9.77 x 5
10.29 x 6
10.8 x 7
11.34x 8

And without a NMC or NTC, can be traded if the team comes up short again.
Tavares has been doing it for years without a talent like Marner on his wing, the difference this year is you was scoring more in other years's he's had someone to score on his line.

Strength down the middle covers a lot of territory.

 

[MyBudJT]

Out of curiosity, 6.5 tops based on what?

Ehlers, who's contract kicked in the same year, signed for significantly less, and an extra year.

 

[Mess]

Those upper bounds are based on the same sort of wiggle room I used for Marner's range. I think 500k per year UFA scale up is high, and the Kane comparable is actually in the 9.15-9.2 range (depending on where this years cap settles) with Kane having a slightly better resume. If you want to nitpick it cuts both ways.

Are you saying Patrick Kane (as a comparable) has a slightly better resume than Marner when he signed his current contract or coming out of his ELC?

 

[4thline]

Are you saying Patrick Kane (as a comparable) has a slightly better resume than Marner when he signed his current contract?

Is Kane's current contract his second contract? No.

Kane's current contract cap adjusts to 12.55 x 8. It was not used in any of my posts.

 

[Notsince67]

Are you saying Patrick Kane (as a comparable) has a slightly better resume than Marner when he signed his current contract or coming out of his ELC?

6 points over 3 year.

 

[Bomber0104]

Nylander should have been 6.3-6.7. That's 4.5% from the upper bound.
Matthews should have been ~10.6- 11. That's 5.5% from the upper bound.

Throw 5% onto the Marner ranges

9.77 x 5
10.29 x 6
10.8 x 7
11.34x 8

That's awfully close to the $10.568 offersheet compensation limit.

I'm sure Marner's agent will use that to squeeze more out of Dubas.

 

[4thline]

That's awfully close to the $10.568 offersheet compensation limit.

I'm sure Marner's agent will use that to squeeze more out of Dubas.

That's actually by 5 years, which would be a market departure from norms for a player of Marner's class. On a 6 year it pushes them into 4 1st territory If another team pushes us there we can deal with that then.

I said when Matthews signed that it was reflective of a different market assessment than Marner.

The Matthews contract looks 100% like a preemptive move made under the assumption that someone would be willing to meet demands in the upper bound of that OS tier, perhaps on a deal less than 5 years.

The next couple weeks might prove me wrong, but to me the fact that negotiations have gone this long shows that Dubas is confident enough to let the market speak wrt Marner, and that he it will be a number we like more than he does.

TL;DR
Leafs thought Matthews would have suitors at 10.6x 5, x 4, maybe even by 3 and acted accordingly
Leafs do not think the same of Marner

 

[Bomber0104]

That's actually by 5 years, which would be a market departure from norms for a player of Marner's class. On a 6 year it pushes them into 4 1st territory If another team pushes us there we can deal with that then.

I said when Matthews signed that it was reflective of a different market assessment than Marner.

The Matthews contract looks 100% like a preemptive move made under the assumption that someone would be willing to meet demands in the upper bound of that OS tier, perhaps on a deal less than 5 years.

The next couple weeks might prove me wrong, but to me the fact that negotiations have gone this long shows that Dubas is confident enough to let the market speak wrt Marner, and that he it will be a number we like more than he does.

TL;DR
Leafs thought Matthews would have suitors at 10.6x 5, x 4, maybe even by 3 and acted accordingly
Leafs do not think the same of Marner

I viewed it as an unwillingness of management to allow both Matthews and Marner to reach July 1st without a contract, which would have invited serious predatory actions from other teams.

And since Marner wasn't negotiating in-season that left Matthews' contract to get done in haste and the result was Dubas getting completely bent over.

 

[Mess]

Is Kane's current contract his second contract? No.

Kane's current contract cap adjusts to 12.55 x 8. It was not used in any of my posts.

Kane's numbers were;
2007-08 - 82 games 21 goals 51 assists 72 points (age 18) [Calder Trophy]
2008-09 - 80 games 25 goals 45 assists 70 points (age 19) Playoffs 16 games 9-5-14 points
2009-10 - 82 games 30 goals 58 assists 88 points (age 20) Playoffs 22 games 10-18-28 points [Chicago wins Stanley Cup]

Kane signs 5 year $31.5 mil deal @ $6.3 mil AAV and 11.09% C.H.%

Did the 28 points in 22 playoff games and 3rd in playoff scoring while leading the Hawks to a Cup factor into your "slightly better" ?

One of the big difference when comparing Leafs young stars to past is that they FIRST won Stanley Cups (proved their value) and then got rewarded financially.

What makes Toronto unique from the rest of the NHL is FIRST they get paid among the elite players, and have yet to win a playoff round.

Is Patrick Kane really the best comparable for Marner at this point in his career, or you're being fairly generous with your "slightly better" reference and giving Mitch also 11% C.H. %?

PS. Kane followed up his contract with a NHL scoring title, Hart, Art Ross and Ted Lindsay and most important 2 more Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe before he got his current dynasty deal placing him among the top wingers in the game.

 

[deletethis]

A wild card factor is the nouveau riche vibe coming off of the Marner family. Mitch maximizing his money to finance his personal freedom may be for his own best interests over the many positives about Toronto like location, situation, comfort, team potential, etc.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Ehlers, who's contract kicked in the same year, signed for significantly less, and an extra year.

Ehlers signed with one 37 point season and one 63pt season. Nylander had 3 60pt+ seasons already and was getting substantially better season after season. While producing similarly 5v5 (1.5 p1/60 for Nylander v.s. 1.47 for Ehlers), Nylander almost doubled Ehler's production on the PP. Nylander also improved that output for 3 years while having increasingly tough usage.

Nylander got paid more because he's a better player. I don't think Ehlers was not a ceiling for him, he's a close comparable though. Patrick Kane's production before he signed his post-ELC contract is closer to what Nylander's ceiling contract should be.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Kane's numbers were;
2007-08 - 82 games 21 goals 51 assists 72 points (age 18) [Calder Trophy]
2008-09 - 80 games 25 goals 45 assists 70 points (age 19) Playoffs 16 games 9-5-14 points
2009-10 - 82 games 30 goals 58 assists 88 points (age 20) Playoffs 22 games 10-18-28 points [Chicago wins Stanley Cup]

Kane signs 5 year $31.5 mil deal @ $6.3 mil AAV and 11.09% C.H.%

Did the 28 points in 22 playoff games and 3rd in playoff scoring while leading the Hawks to a Cup factor into your "slightly better" ?

One of the big difference when comparing Leafs young stars to past is that they FIRST won Stanley Cups (proved their value) and then got rewarded financially.

What makes Toronto unique from the rest of the NHL is FIRST they get paid among the elite players, and have yet to win a playoff round.

Is Patrick Kane really the best comparable for Marner at this point in his career?

PS. Kane followed up his contract with a NHL scoring title, Hart, Art Ross and Ted Lindsay and most important 2 more Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe before he got his current dynasty deal placing him among the top wingers in the game.

Kane didn't win a stanley cup before he signed his contract. Also you're ignoring the insane amount of PP time that Blackhawks team and Kane as a result got, bud. Why on earth would you consider what he did _after_ he was awarded the contract to compare what they signed for? My lord...

 

[MyBudJT]

Ehlers signed with one 37 point season and one 63pt season. Nylander had 3 60pt+ seasons already and was getting substantially better season after season. While producing similarly 5v5 (1.5 p1/60 for Nylander v.s. 1.47 for Ehlers), Nylander almost doubled Ehler's production on the PP. Nylander also improved that output for 3 years while having increasingly tough usage.

Nylander got paid more because he's a better player. I don't think Ehlers was not a ceiling for him, he's a close comparable though. Patrick Kane's production before he signed his post-ELC contract is closer to what Nylander's ceiling contract should be.

Nylander did NOT have 3 60+ point seasons....

Ehlers U21 season > Nylanders U21 season
Ehlers U22 season = Nylanders U22 season

They're great comparables.

Nylander is not better than Ehlers.