Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part V

[Antropovsky]

People that compare Marner to Kane for their first three years are delusional. Kane wins AINEC. He had more points, plus a cup and calder before the end of his ELC with LESS quality on the team. People here complaining about PP time and thinking that's the reason, lol. Honestly, what has Marner done, outside of one year that was over 90 points?

BTW I love Marner and don't want to lose him, but be realistic people. He isn't Patty Kane.

I agree.. Kane makes it looks too easy with the puck. I don't see that skill level, or ease/fluidity with his passes/shot/stickhandling that Kane shows in Marner. Marner trumps in effort though.

 

[Kiwi]

Are you sure you want to go down this road?

Why aren't we making the same adjustments for Auston Matthews and William Nylander and their comparables?

Because Nylander is overpaid and Matthews contract is an abomination?

I don't know about you but after I've seriously ****** up I'm not rushing to do exactly the same thing again a few months later, that may just be me though

 

[FlareKnight]

I suppose the one nice thing is that this won't take as long as the Nylander situation. Can't have his cap hit inflate due to missed time. Marner will either be signed fairly early into the summer or he'll be gone. In the end it will just come down to Marner and if he wants to be a Leaf or not. There's only so much cap space and only so much you can pay a playmaking winger. Hopefully he wants to stick around since he's a fun player to watch.

 

[4thline]

I suppose the one nice thing is that this won't take as long as the Nylander situation. Can't have his cap hit inflate due to missed time.

That's actually a misconception. The per game cap hit rises but the annual hit is still just the per year average of the total contract. We could do it but it would mean icing a roster xx short of the cap from day 1 to bank up the space, and to so we would likely have to dump Horton's contract

 

[Notsince67]

10.5? Get rid of him. I am hoping during the next lockout the owners ruthlessly go after the players. How is it that hockey is one of the least popular professional sports but has guaranteed contracts? People that justify this salary aren't fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs, they are fans of Mitch Marner.

People who arent a fan of marner arent leaf fans

 

[MyBudJT]

Because Nylander is overpaid and Matthews contract is an abomination?

I don't know about you but after I've seriously ****** up I'm not rushing to do exactly the same thing again a few months later, that may just be me though

In all respect, I was asking kb. I don't know if I've even seen him say one critical thing about Nylander or his contract.

 

[Leafidelity]

Marners camp is shown the same team cap sites and league projections we are. It seems money is more important than winning anything to them.

They know 10.5 guts the team - they don’t seem to care.

 

[Trapper]

Marners camp is shown the same team cap sites and league projections we are. It seems money is more important than winning anything to them.

They know 10.5 guts the team - they don’t seem to care.

Why stop now?

I mean I sign Tavares all day but if he wanted to win he could have taken a 9.1 x 7 deal. Matthews at 10.5, Nylander a team 6.4-6.6 and Marner around 9.

There’s no guarantee you ever win. There is a guarantee you get paid. That’s why you pay a GM. Knowing how much to pay, who to keep and where to balance the money.

 

[TML Dynasty]

Just get it done. I hate to think we are missing out on potential deals because we want Marner done first. Give him a final offer, make him the damn captain, get that Canadian Tire guy in there who scared off Stamkos, change Kawhi's murals to Mitch.....just get it done for the love of god.

 

[Leafidelity]

Why stop now?

I mean I sign Tavares all day but if he wanted to win he could have taken a 9.1 x 7 deal. Matthews at 10.5, Nylander a team 6.4-6.6 and Marner around 9.

There’s no guarantee you ever win. There is a guarantee you get paid. That’s why you pay a GM. Knowing how much to pay, who to keep and where to balance the money.

Tavares did take a pay cut and Matthews is a centre. Nylander realistically is like 300k overpaid. Marner allegedly wants to be the highest paid winger in the league

I like Marner, but I'm a Leafs fan before a Marner fan.

 

[Trapper]

Tavares did take a pay cut and Matthews is a centre. Nylander realistically is like 300k overpaid. Marner allegedly wants to be the highest paid winger in the league

Somebody is always the highest paid winger in the league.
We don’t know what Rantanen-Laine-Panarin-etc. are making yet.

 

[Notsince67]

Tavares did take a pay cut and Matthews is a centre. Nylander realistically is like 300k overpaid. Marner allegedly wants to be the highest paid winger in the league

I like Marner, but I'm a Leafs fan before a Marner fan.

Nylander should be putting up 70 pts per season at his salary. Leafs are already underwater. He needs around 79 points for the remainder of his 5 years to pull it off. There is no way he is only 300k overpaid. Assuming he isnt underwater. Willy getting 70 points amount to Marner getting 9.4MM over 6 years assuming zero growth in his points and doesnt account for penalty killing and the fact that pay per point should be scaled upwards due to opportunity cost of positions. Just to put it in another perspective, a linear pay for points at Nylanders 61 point career high, translates to Marner being paid 10.8mm over 6 years. There is no math in the world that supports keeping Nylander and losing Marner for anything less than 10.8MM for 6 as a floor.

 

[Menzinger]

50-60 point players get 6-7 mil in today's NHL. Only folks who have their head stuck in the sand claim otherwise.

 

[Menzinger]

People who arent a fan of marner arent leaf fans

One can also be a fan of Marner and accept the reality that 1) hes not the best winger in the NHL and may never will be. 2) he doesn't have any basis for demanding to be paid the most in his position based on league comparisons

 

[Menzinger]

10.5 makes him by far the highest paid winger in the league and is above and beyond all precedent.

It's pretty terrible bro.

It would be a bad deal for the Leafs but manageable if it was for 8 years of term. One of those "grit your teeth and do it" deals.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Nylander should be putting up 70 pts per season at his salary. Leafs are already underwater. He needs around 79 points for the remainder of his 5 years to pull it off. There is no way he is only 300k overpaid. Assuming he isnt underwater. Willy getting 70 points amount to Marner getting 9.4MM over 6 years assuming zero growth in his points and doesnt account for penalty killing and the fact that pay per point should be scaled upwards due to opportunity cost of positions. Just to put it in another perspective, a linear pay for points at Nylanders 61 point career high, translates to Marner being paid 10.8mm over 6 years. There is no math in the world that supports keeping Nylander and losing Marner for anything less than 10.8MM for 6 as a floor.

Matthews has to put up 90-100 point season and contend for major awards in order to be anywhere near worth his contract. Same for Marner, if he wants 10.5+ then he better be putting up 90 points every season and contend for some awards plus lead the team to some playoff victories. Leafs are already underwater with both Willy and Matthews. How can we afford a 3rd overpay?

 

[Notsince67]

One can also be a fan of Marner and accept the reality that 1) hes not the best winger in the NHL and may never will be. 2) he doesn't have any basis for demanding to be paid the most in his position based on league comparisons

Yeah. We have already dealt with it. Point differentials between both Nylander and Matthews would already justify an unprecedented payout.

 

[Notsince67]

Matthews has to put up 90-100 point season and contend for major awards in order to be anywhere near worth his contract. Same for Marner, if he wants 10.5+ then he better be putting up 90 points every season and contend for some awards plus lead the team to some playoff victories. Leafs are already underwater with both Willy and Matthews. How can we afford a 3rd overpay?

I agree with you. At the numbers we are looking at, i think Marner needs to be close to 100 pts. From that number, Marner wouldnt be an overpay.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Do you guys think what Dubas did to Sparks at seasons end went unnoticed by Marner, players, agents, and Dads ... think about it

 

[Nylander88]

I like that Matthews just got his done and out of the way so the organization knew what they had financially. I hope Marner can do the same soon. Leafs have to move forward with plans and leave the 10 mil (or whatever they've internally decided upon) aside for when/if he's ready. Marner is looking in the dressing room at Tavares and Matthews and wanting their money because he got more points. He's not looking around the league at comparable wingers. Goal scoring Centers always make the most. Marner is a playmaking winger. He needs to figure out the difference

 

[ORRFForever]

Bob McClown and Nick Kypreos talked Mitch Marner on PTS...

They both figure Marner will not sign for less than $11M after seeing what Erik Karlsson signed for - and yes, they realize EK is a defenseman and Marner is a winger.

 

[ToDavid]

I suppose the one nice thing is that this won't take as long as the Nylander situation. Can't have his cap hit inflate due to missed time.

This is actually a misconception. The cap hit the team takes doesn't inflate, it stays the same. It just gets squeezed into a smaller and smaller fraction of the season which implicitly inflates the "full season" cap hit.

See this page here:
Toronto Maple Leafs Daily Cap Tracker - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

The cap hit the team actually took on for Nylander was $6,962,366 over 126 days. The higher $10.3 million amount that everyone talks about is just the annualized value: $6,962,366 * (186/126) = $10,277,778. This number is used because CapFriendly likes to put everything in terms of neat annual amounts (which is why you see cap space appear to increase over the course of the season).

The reason for the rule is not to punish teams by inflating the cap hit it's to stop teams from forcing RFAs to sit out until December to game the system. Basically, the rule is that regardless of when you sign the player, you're going to count their full AAV over the course of the remainder of the season whether there are 186 days remaining or 126 days remaining. If not for this rule, teams would actually get a lower cap hit in Year 1 if they forced RFAs to sit.

So, if the Leafs have $10 million to sign Marner on October 1st next season they'll still have the same $10 million to sign him on December 1st (assuming they don't use it, obviously). His "full season" cap hit will have increased but the cap hit the team actually takes for the remainder of the season will still only be $10 million.

 

[Trapper]

I agree with you. At the numbers we are looking at, i think Marner needs to be close to 100 pts. From that number, Marner wouldnt be an overpay.

We’ve passed the point where players can exceed their salary.
Perhaps Nylander if you want to crunch numbers.

However, the other 3 will be unlikely to elevate as a Kane making 5 on a 2nd contract did back in the days.

You’ve gone from paying a 90 point player ELC money to 10+ million. How much more are you looking to get out of Marner?

 

[The CyNick]

11.6*5 and 13*8 are the options right now.

 

[ORRFForever]

11.6*5 and 13*8 are the options right now.

What? WOW!!! That is insane.

I would hope for 11 * 8.