You’re assuming Korshkov spends the whole year with the Leafs?
Are any of the Euro picks likely to come over? Holmberg, Kara, Kizimov? Rasanen?
Any Growlers do enough to force ELC’s?
Yes. He's ready to play on the Leafs 4th line full time. Worst case, he flops and Agostino is the full time 4th liner. Either way, I think it makes more sense than bringing Clifford back for whatever he will get in UFA next year. Korshkov/Agostino can bring the energy necessary. The 13th forward job + other 4th line spots I expect will go to three of Spezza, Gauthier, Malgin or Brooks. Depending on the flavour Keefe wants for next year, I can see the Leafs trading Gauthier and rotating Spezza, Malgin and Brooks in and out of the lineup so it's more of a two-way line with more offensive upside. It won't be overly physical outside of Korshkov, but Spezza, Brooks and Malgin are all hard-working, high IQ players who understand what it takes to win a game and should be able to hound people at least as much as Timashov did.
I have Holmberg in the lineup since his SHL deal expires. His Corsi is very nice no matter the quality of team or role he plays. He's not doing much offensively, but in his defense he has 13 points on a team where the top guy only has 25, and he has not been playing a ton of offensive minutes this year. I figured he either signs a two-year deal in the SHL to take him until his rights with us expire (and then we make a decision), or the Leafs decide to bring him in to play on their 4th line and see if he can work his way up from there, similar to Stotts. Holmberg can play all three forward positions so that works in his favour, and I decided why not. Otherwise, his spot likely goes to a one-year SPC veteran with a bit of grit, like a Garret Wilson.
Kara has one more year on his Russian deal and I think he could use a season where he is in the KHL full time and putting up respectable numbers before he comes over anyways. Kizimov is a ways away, if he is anything at all. I think Rasanen's timeline makes more sense for 2 years than now than next year. I would try to get him into the Liiga, and then assuming he does well (which I think he would), he can come in from the Liiga alongside Kokkonen (who also needs another year over there IMO).
The Growlers need to make the Marlies full time before they are in any ELC conversations. I have Brazeau as a full-time 4th liner in the AHL next year. Perhaps another Growler could fill a full-time depth role or two. There is an open spot on the "5th line" for one, but that spot could also go to a more experienced AHL-contract vet to compliment the other fairly young players currently occupying the 4th and 5th lines as well. From there, it is up to them to earn an ELC once they make the Marlies.
This is the rotation for the next few years (excluding any draft picks or trades, and assuming guys are good enough to make the Marlies):
2020-2021 Prospect Rotation
LD Filip Kral (ELC; sent to Growlers to start)
C Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
C/LW Riley Stotts
F Pontus Holmberg
RW Justin Brazeau (AHL contract promoted from Newfoundland) + potentially one other Growler prospect (i.e. Giorgio Estephan, Riley Woods, Colt Conrad, etc.)
+ 2 European/NCAA Free Agent Forwards (i.e. Julius Nattinen, Jordan Kawaguchi, Mitchell Chaffee, etc.)
2021-2022 Prospect Rotation
LW Nick Robertson (assuming he doesn't make the NHL right away)
RD Eemeli Rasanen
RD Mikko Kokkonen
LW/C Nick Abruzzese (depending on how he wants to go about his NCAA career, he follows up his Freshman season with a strong Sophomore season, and if there is room for him)
LD James Greenway (may only be on an AHL contract, and may be on Growlers to start).
LW/RW Vlad Kara
C/RW Mikhail Abramov
G Ian Scott (promoted from Growlers to the Marlies full time)
LD Filip Kral (promoted from Growlers to the Marlies full time)
Which leaves Loponen, O'Connell, Kizimov and Koster as the only other guys out there after the next two years (plus our many upcoming draft picks of course). Bouthillier, Aaltonen and Herzog expire. Bobylev and Chebykin are lemons.