You cannot control the other teams play against other teams.
That is not analytics that is wishful thinking.
You have to achieve the annual avg last Wild Card point total
Bettman standings math is simple.
Points - games.
96 pt is average needed to make last WC.
Some yr slightly higher, some lower.
96pt - 82gm = +14 pts.
Reg, OT, SO win 2pt - 1Gm = +1
OT, SO loss 1pt - 1Gm = even
Reg loss 0pt - 1Gm = -1
Leafs are
31gm 14w 13L - 4 0t/SOL = +1
51 gm are left
they need 13 gm with wins 13 - 0
If the other 38 gm Are .500 win % without SO/OTL (even Gm)
19W - 19L
the leafs need to 32W - 19L = 64pt
If some of the games are SO/OTL the season pt pace needs to be equal or higher.
32 - 18 - 1 65pt
31- 18 - 2 64 pt
31 - 17 - 3 65pt
30 - 17 - 4 64 pt
30 - 16 - 5 65 pt
29 - 16 - 6 64 pt
29 - 15 - 7 65pt
The more OT/SOL the less Reg losses allowed.
51gm possibility of 102pt
64/102 = .627 win%
84gm possibility of 164pt
.627 x 164 = 102.8 pts, 103 pt season pace needed in last 51 gm
+13 for even SO/OT season total = 64 pt
or
+14 for odd SO/OT season total = 65 pt
With Leafs sitting at 4 OT/SOL right now.