Out of curiosity, I ran some Babcock versus Keefe numbers, now that we're 8 games in. This should provide some perspective on where they're at, and the work they need to do in order to make the playoffs. I think the numbers show that they are playing better than .625 winning % they've had under Keefe so far, due to quality of competition. Boston has played at a .741 clip so far this year. I believe the Leafs can sustain a .700-ish winning % the remainder of the year, going the equivalent of 35-16, to finish with 102 points.
Essentially, Babcock was running the 5th worst team in the NHL for the first 23 games. Keefe is running a top 10 club. Combined, they still have a ton of work to do in order to squeak into the playoffs. Penalty kill has gone from essentially worst to first overall. Power play has gone from mediocre to first overall. Overall play has gone from bottom 1/3rd of the league to top 10. However, they were on pace for 78 points. Odds of making the playoffs have climbed from 24% to 34% on Moneypuck, and from 59% to 69% on Dom Luszczyszyn's Athletic model.
Record
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Babcock - 9-10-4 .478 winning % / 78 point season pace (25th overall)
Keefe - 5-3-0 .625 winning % / 103 point season pace (12th overall)
- Correction - Keefe - 5-2-1 .6875 winning % / 113 point season pace
Combined 14-13-4 .516 winning % / 85 point season pace (23rd overall)
