Leafs Chances of Making Playoffs (Reddit User)

[zeke]

no they dont... no one knows that you need. If every is playing **** maybe its 92 93 94 95.... 96 is a guess from the last 2 years.

there's always the chance that we could luck out and the playoff cutoff is way lower this year, but I wouldn't count on it.

As it gets closer to the end of the year, some teams go for it and some give up, and that mushy middle starts to move towards the extremes. We're already starting to see that.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Six teams competing for probably 2 spots, I think the 2 wild cards will go to the other division.

Buffalo 36 pts (32 gms played)
Montreal 36 pts (32 gms played)
Florida 35 pts (30 gms played)
Toronto 34 pts (32 gms played)
Tampa Bay 33 pts (29 gms played)
NY Rangers 33 pts (30 gms played)

3 points separates 3 teams for 2 playoff spots.

That should be tap ins for the Leafs and Lightning.

 

[Gary Nylund]

My point is don't just look at 1 or the other, consider all information.

In order for the pts % to be accurate for "Future standing" everyone has to stay on the same pace.

I prefer to look at actual points and games in hand (then can make some assumptions based on how those games in hand go).

Mostly just a preference tho I guess.

As far as "future standing" goes, no system is accurate for that. Considering all information is always a good policy, I'm with ya.

 

[stickty111]

Boston help us out today.

 

[stickty111]

Nice start. Preds and Bruins lead early.

 

[willmma]

Stupid Eichel

 

[stickty111]

After 2
Sabres tied, Lightning tied, Panthers trailing.

 

[Warden of the North]

Damn Sabres cant lose these days

That team is streaky

 

[Ashdown2]

wow all the competition won except florida.
points tonight will be huge.

 

[hullsy47]

Stupid Eichel

Why ? Cause he outplayed Mathews head to head

 

[willmma]

Today's score board watch and dream results:

Leafs to beat Flames
Predators to beat Sabres
Islanders to beat Panthers
Bruins to beat Lightning
Blue Jackets to beat Penguins

lots of impact games.
We could potentially end up in second place in the Atlantic tonight

Leafs lost
Sabres won
Lightning won
Penguins won

Ughhh

 

[stickty111]

Why ? Cause he outplayed Mathews head to head

No because he scored.

 

[Stephen]

I was trying to draw attention to the games back column. We are only 3.5 games back of fourth and one game back of 8th. In baseball 3.5 games isn't much and one game is nothing.

They play 162 games in baseball and 82 in hockey. So the runway isn’t the same.

I don’t think the Leafs will make the playoffs. Too many teams in the pack and the Leafs slowly seem to be falling into the back. Starting to need too many things to go well internally and with all the teams in front of us to fall flat.

 

[Jozay]

 

[Mess]

Leafs are 6-4-0 under Keefe and as long as Leafs play at .600 hockey we will stay in the playoff hunt.

We have 5 more 10 game segments left essentially, so at this current new coach pace if repeated the playoffs will remain in sight and a possibility.

.600 X 49 games remaining = 58.8 points + current 34 points = projected 92.8 points finish.

So with a WC spot needing 96-98 points we are still within striking range.

 

[MyBudJT]

Leafs are 6-4-0 under Keefe and as long as Leafs play at .600 hockey we will stay in the playoff hunt.

We have 5 more 10 game segments left essentially, so at this current new coach pace if repeated the playoffs will remain in sight and a possibility.

.600 X 49 games remaining = 58.8 points + current 34 points = projected 92.8 points finish.

So with a WC spot needing 96-98 points we are still within striking range.

The problem is we need to play our back-up more...

 

[Mess]

Leafs are currently 15-14-4 for 34 points and +1 game over .500 (Wins - Regulation Losses)

To make the playoffs a team needs to be about +16 games over .500 = 98 points.

So our Leafs need to win +15 more games (by any means including OT/SO) than regulation losses in the remaining 49 games.

Projected record required 32-17-0 (max) , so Leafs can't afford to lose any more than 17 regulation games in last 49. A loss in OT/SO = 1 point = .500 hockey and are ignored from the +games over, but reduces the regulation games allowed as a result.

So as long 64 points of a possible (49 games X 2) = 98 points remains possible the playoffs remain a possibility.

 

[Mess]

The problem is we need to play our back-up more...

That is the pitfall we're facing here.. Leafs current backup goalies = 0-7-1 record and on average your backup goalie plays around 20 games and you need .500 hockey or 20 points from your backups.

So lets say Hutch is scheduled for 12 more starts (8 already completed by backups) a record of 9-2-1 will be required to secure 20 points from your backups netminders.

The margin for error is small if you need your backup to secure 19 of a possible 24 points = .792 points% rate.

Andersen's personal best mark 66 games 38-21-5 = 81 points / .614 points% (with 98 points WC#2) = 16 points (8 wins) minimum from backups (1 point currently secured) if Andersen hits his career best mark again.

So no matter how you slice it, it requires your backup to win 8-9 of his remaining starts.

Unfortunately you can have all the Matthews and Tavares you want, but your backup goalie needs to contribute about 20 points to the cause or you season is over.

 

[DarkKnight]

We’re still fine if we play to expectations, but there isn’t a lot of margin of error left and throwing away two points like last night can’t happen.

Lots of time, but the time is now if it makes sense.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

I can't believe we're discussing the Leafs chances of making the playoffs. It should have been a slam dunk from the onset of the season (no, coaching is not an excuse).

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Generally, we've been playing better since the coaching change, but it felt a little weird (disheartening) looking at the standings this morning. We now have three teams between us and the last wildcard slot, two of which have 2 games in hand, and one with 3 games in hand.

Our best bet of making the playoffs would be to sneak into 3rd place in the Atlantic versus securing a wild-card spot given the Atlantic is a weak division this year. We are the 22nd overall team as an illustration of this point. Thank god we are in a weak division.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I can't believe we're discussing the Leafs chances of making the playoffs. It should have been a slam dunk from the onset of the season (no, coaching is not an excuse).

It is when the team has started playing much better under the new coach early on, and should only get better as time goes on. If we had Keefe's record from the start of the year, we'd be in second place in our division right now and would be around as good as PIT, CAR and PHI

What we need is a Buffalo, Philly or Calgary-like run. One where we have a nice point streak. We play EDM, BUF, NYR, DET, CAR, NJD, NYR, and MIN to close out the year. If we didn't make so many mistakes, we could easily win all of those games, however this team is still making far too many (as you can see from last night).

So lets say we can get the wins against MIN, NJD and DET , because I think we can still win those games even if we make mistakes and have Hutch in net for at least 2 of them. Then if we can just muster 3/5 wins against EDM, NYR x 2, CAR and BUF (especially against BUF), we would be 8-3-0 in the last 11 games of 2019 and would have 46 points in 41 games (so on pace for 92). Obviously we'd need to play a lot better in the 2nd half than in the 1st half of the year, but the Leafs would have a 12-6-0 record under Keefe, they'd have everyone healthy, and I believe they'll have an easier schedule too... And if the landscape generally stays the same, it's not like their competition would be on pace for much better.

However if the Leafs can't get it done in the rest of December, or mess up in January, we are done and we are sellers at the end of January. The next month and a half have to be at least at the Keefe-like pace (.600) for us to even have a chance of staying in the race.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

So, the Leafs need to get 64 points in the remaining games, which is roughly 32 wins & 19 losses (.627 win percentage). As you said, the more OT/Shoot-Out losses, the less regulation losses allowed.

However if the Leafs can't get it done in the rest of December, or mess up in January, we are done and we are sellers at the end of January. The next month and a half have to be at least at the Keefe-like pace (.600) for us to even have a chance of staying in the race.

Its a .627 win percentage pace that we need for the rest of the (entire) season, so "at least" was the operative word. I think its going to have to be around a .650 pace or greater for the rest of December and January. We are bound to slip again at some point. Plus, if our chances are still nebulous going into February, I fear that we may not capitalize on picking up more assets at the deadline which I think is better for our future.

 

[Antropovsky]

Hey Kyle Dubas.... You assembled a team of show dogs to take to a dog fight.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I don't think they are making it. It's like they are spinning their wheels in mud. How much ground have they even made up since Babcock was fired?