Leafs Chances of Making Playoffs (Reddit User)

[Dekes For Days]

Of course nothing is certain now, but we're over a third of the way into the season and the lowest WC team is Carolina with 37 points in 30 games, and they are only in 5th in the Metro. Good luck catching any of them.

On December 10th, 2018, the Atlantic division held both wild card spots, and had the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th best teams in the Eastern Conference. At the end of the season, Metro teams held both wild card spots.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'll bet you $100 the Leafs don't get a wild card playoff entry.

What odds are you offering?

On December 10th, 2018, the Atlantic division held both wild card spots, and had the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th best teams in the Eastern Conference. At the end of the season, Metro teams held both wild card spots.

Yup. Something to keep in mind for all those who think they know what's going happen from here on in.

 

[Trapper]

What odds are you offering?



Yup. Something to keep in mind for all those who think they know what's going happen from here on in.

Nothing is for certain but the advanced stat crowd must be able to determine if the 5 Metro teams are playing sustainable hockey and what percentage they will achieve along the current path.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Nothing is for certain but the advanced stat crowd must be able to determine if the 5 Metro teams are playing sustainable hockey and what percentage they will achieve along the current path.

I'd like to see them try.

Edit - I don't mean that to sound like I'm making fun of anyone, it's a very difficult challenge and it would actually be cool if someone smart gave it a shot. And of course there are too many variable not possible to account for properly making the entire exercise more or less pointless.

 

[Trapper]

I'd like to see them try.

Edit - I don't mean that to sound like I'm making fun of anyone, it's a very difficult challenge and it would actually be cool if someone smart gave it a shot. And of course there are too many variable not possible to account for properly making the entire exercise more or less pointless.

Well I’m sure the stats could at the very least show sustainable hockey.
It was 5 Metro teams that made it last year.
Washington is Washington and Pittsburgh will get Crosby back. Malkin is carrying things at the moment. NY and Carolina look good enough to make it to me. Can Philly sustain is probably the biggest ?

 

[oilerbear]

You cannot control the other teams play against other teams.
That is not analytics that is wishful thinking.
You have to achieve the annual avg last Wild Card point total

Bettman standings math is simple.
Points - games.
96 pt is average needed to make last WC.
Some yr slightly higher, some lower.
96pt - 82gm = +14 pts.
Reg, OT, SO win 2pt - 1Gm = +1
OT, SO loss 1pt - 1Gm = even
Reg loss 0pt - 1Gm = -1

Leafs are
31gm 14w 13L - 4 0t/SOL = +1

51 gm are left

they need 13 gm with wins 13 - 0
If the other 38 gm Are .500 win % without SO/OTL (even Gm)
19W - 19L
the leafs need to 32W - 19L = 64pt

If some of the games are SO/OTL the season pt pace needs to be equal or higher.
32 - 18 - 1 65pt
31- 18 - 2 64 pt
31 - 17 - 3 65pt
30 - 17 - 4 64 pt
30 - 16 - 5 65 pt
29 - 16 - 6 64 pt
29 - 15 - 7 65pt
The more OT/SOL the less Reg losses allowed.

51gm possibility of 102pt
64/102 = .627 win%
84gm possibility of 164pt
.627 x 164 = 102.8 pts, 103 pt season pace needed in last 51 gm

+13 for even SO/OT season total = 64 pt
or
+14 for odd SO/OT season total = 65 pt
With Leafs sitting at 4 OT/SOL right now.

 

[Hockey Crazy]

To show how close we are, if the right results happen just tonight alone, the pts% standings could look like this tommorrow:

3.TBL .534 (88pt pace) (lose vs FLA)
4.TOR .531 (87pt pace) (win vs VAN)
5.BUF .531 (87pt pace) (lose vs STL)
6.MTL .516 (85pt pace) (lose vs PIT)


Now all that likely won't happen tonight, but it easily could. And that pace wouldn't be near enough to be content with. But that would put us in a virtual tie for a playoffs spot on the 10th of December.

Not looking great so far...

 

[willmma]

Stupid Penguins

 

[HoweHullOrr]

You cannot control the other teams play against other teams.
That is not analytics that is wishful thinking.
You have to achieve the annual avg last Wild Card point total

Bettman standings math is simple.
Points - games.
96 pt is average needed to make last WC.
Some yr slightly higher, some lower.
96pt - 82gm = +14 pts.
Reg, OT, SO win 2pt - 1Gm = +1
OT, SO loss 1pt - 1Gm = even
Reg loss 0pt - 1Gm = -1

Leafs are
31gm 14w 13L - 4 0t/SOL = +1

51 gm are left

they need 13 gm with wins 13 - 0
If the other 38 gm Are .500 win % without SO/OTL (even Gm)
19W - 19L
the leafs need to 32W - 19L = 64pt

If some of the games are SO/OTL the season pt pace needs to be equal or higher.
32 - 18 - 1 65pt
31- 18 - 2 64 pt
31 - 17 - 3 65pt
30 - 17 - 4 64 pt
30 - 16 - 5 65 pt
29 - 16 - 6 64 pt
29 - 15 - 7 65pt
The more OT/SOL the less Reg losses allowed.

51gm possibility of 102pt
64/102 = .627 win%
84gm possibility of 164pt
.627 x 164 = 102.8 pts, 103 pt season pace needed in last 51 gm

+13 for even SO/OT season total = 64 pt
or
+14 for odd SO/OT season total = 65 pt
With Leafs sitting at 4 OT/SOL right now.

So, the Leafs need to get 64 points in the remaining games, which is roughly 32 wins & 19 losses (.627 win percentage). As you said, the more OT/Shoot-Out losses, the less regulation losses allowed.

 

[Warden of the North]

Thanks a lot Pens and Blues

Probably best that Tampa won? Florida is due for a stumble

 

[willmma]

We gained two important points on the Panthers. We are only 1 point behind


I know we're still 2 games behind but we're making progress

 

[Warden of the North]

Im annoyed that Buffalo and Montreal won tonight. At least the Panthers lost

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Im annoyed that Buffalo and Montreal won tonight. At least the Panthers lost

I think Tampa's going to end up 2nd in the division (if not Toronto ). Is everyone also thinking that, and that's why it's better Panthers lose than Tampa?

 

[IPS]

I think this fanbase panicked too much.

We're getting back on track just fine.

 

[Blowfish]

Tampa with 3 games on hand. Tampa/Florida going to be tough to catch.

 

[Pi]

Tampa with 3 games on hand. Tampa/Florida going to be tough to catch.

If there were 10-20 games remaining, sure. We aren't even at halfway mark right now.

They can go on a skid and we have faced Tampa once and haven't played Florida at all. Leafs control their destiny.

 

[DarkKnight]

I still assume TB gets their act together, like us they have too much raw talent, should eventually show itself. The real target is Florida imho, Boston TB Toronto, as it should be. Wildcard may actually be the tougher test.

 

[zeke]

gonna be a race between TOR and TB for home-ice advantage in the 2nd half.

 

[willmma]

Babcock 23 games
Result 9-10-4
Pts 22 (P% 478. Pace 78)
PP% 17.6
PK% 73.1
SA/G 33.35
SF/G 33.17


Keefe 9 games
Result 6-3-0
Pts 12 (P% 666. Pace 109)
PP% 35.7
PK% 90.9
SA/G 31.67
SF/G 34.11

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Tampa with 3 games on hand. Tampa/Florida going to be tough to catch.

We play them 4 times

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I still assume TB gets their act together, like us they have too much raw talent, should eventually show itself. The real target is Florida imho, Boston TB Toronto, as it should be. Wildcard may actually be the tougher test.

This !

 

[Durrr]

We are literally as in the playoff race as you can be without being a lock to enter/miss. To be honest, if we can't out play the Habs/Sabers/Panthers with this team we don't deserve a spot anyways, but I do love the indepth playoff birth analysis that normally appears around 50~ game mark coming at game 30~ this year.

 

[4thline]

The wildcards are not out of reach, and the Atlantic dog fight will open itself up.

People forget that the back half of the season is skewed heavily to divisional games- so by nature the 1st half is light, leaving bunches of teams with inflated points percentages from not cannibalizing each other.

 

[Warden of the North]

Tampa with 3 games on hand. Tampa/Florida going to be tough to catch.

Meh. We can catch Florida. I think we still play them 4 times?

 

[666]

The Leafs are totally in it:

	G	P	ppct	GB
Washington Capitals	32	49	0.766	0.0
Boston Bruins	31	46	0.742	1.0
New York Islanders	29	42	0.724	2.0
Philadelphia Flyers	30	39	0.650	4.0
Carolina Hurricanes	31	39	0.629	4.5
Pittsburgh Penguins	31	38	0.613	5.0
Florida Panthers	30	35	0.583	6.0
Tampa Bay Lightning	29	33	0.569	6.5
Buffalo Sabres	32	36	0.563	6.5
New York Rangers	30	33	0.550	7.0
Montreal Canadiens	31	34	0.548	7.0
Toronto Maple Leafs	32	34	0.531	7.5
Columbus Blue Jackets	30	28	0.467	9.5
Ottawa Senators	31	27	0.435	10.5
New Jersey Devils	30	23	0.383	12.0
Detroit Red Wings	32	17	0.266	16.0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]