Leafs Chances of Making Playoffs (Reddit User)

[mulefarm]

I expect them to pass Boston!

 

[willmma]

Tampa lost

 

[Hockey Crazy]

They'll make it

Agree... we'll be coming in hot too

 

[willmma]

I expect them to pass Boston!

Boston lost

 

[Warden of the North]

Tampa is going to get there crap together, right?

 

[HolyCrap]

Tampa is going to get there crap together, right?

I’m assuming so but praying no. Lol.

 

[Cleetus]

Tampa is going to get there crap together, right?

not sure they show flashes of potential than they just kind of play bad for awhile, and Vasy has not been that great for them this year either....

 

[Kiwi]

I've got some doubts were going to make it

● The defense still blows
● The backup goaltending is a disgrace
● We don't put in a consistent effort
● We've had a years worth of results that suggest we aren't very good

We're going to have to be significantly better to make it which isn't impossible but isn't very likely either

 

[DarkKnight]

The only good news, if we make the playoffs we’re fighting and scratching and probably playing well at the end of the year. We coasted last year, locked in to our spot pretty much after Christmas and we just meandered along. I’d rather make it having to play hard for something.

For myself, I look to Florida as the realistic target...so games in hand let’s say we are 5-6 points back. That’s the carrot to catch.

 

[The Podium]

I've got some doubts were going to make it

● The defense still blows
● The backup goaltending is a disgrace
● We don't put in a consistent effort
● We've had a years worth of results that suggest we aren't very good

We're going to have to be significantly better to make it which isn't impossible but isn't very likely either

They have been significantly better under Keefe, both to the eye and in advanced stats, and it usually takes a month or so before a system takes hold. They are 5-3-0 in their last 8 games, if they continue that modest and realistic pace in the remaining 51 games thats a record of 32 - 19 - 0 or 64 points putting the Leafs at 96 points which was good enough to make the playoffs every year in the past 2 decades prior to last season.

 

[mulefarm]

Boston, here we come!

 

[Vaive50]

not sure they show flashes of potential than they just kind of play bad for awhile, and Vasy has not been that great for them this year either....

Vasy is playing as bad as Hutch, his GA and SV% are better only because of the team in front of him but there are so many nights that they just can't score. Their highest goal scorers are Kuch, Stam and Pointe with each having 10 goals, our highest is Matthews with 18 and him combined with Willy have the same as those 3 combined and the Leafs are also having a slow start.

 

[zeke]

Tampa is going to get there crap together, right?

They were likely never gonna sustain that red hot shooting percentage and save percentage.

 

[zeke]

I've got some doubts were going to make it

● The defense still blows

Probably doesn't, actually.

● We've had a years worth of results that suggest we aren't very good

Untrue.

 

[Vaive50]

Well it was McBackup tonight for the Bolts. At least we should be thankful that our starting goalie is red hot and winning us games by himself and we only have a back-up problem but the Bolts have major goalie problems with their starter and back-up.

 

[zeke]

People didnt want to see that so much of TBs success last year rode on an unsustainable PP and great goaltending.

And notice that without that insane PP clicking, all the individual scoring totals suddenly look fairly pedestrian.

 

[Kiwi]

Probably doesn't, actually.




Untrue.

It still does, to many guys that are one dimensional that can't defend competently

True, we've been very average since Christmas last year almost a full Callender year of meh

 

[markh100]

Out of curiosity, I ran some Babcock versus Keefe numbers, now that we're 8 games in. This should provide some perspective on where they're at, and the work they need to do in order to make the playoffs. I think the numbers show that they are playing better than .625 winning % they've had under Keefe so far, due to quality of competition. Boston has played at a .741 clip so far this year. I believe the Leafs can sustain a .700-ish winning % the remainder of the year, going the equivalent of 35-16, to finish with 102 points.

Essentially, Babcock was running the 5th worst team in the NHL for the first 23 games. Keefe is running a top 10 club. Combined, they still have a ton of work to do in order to squeak into the playoffs. Penalty kill has gone from essentially worst to first overall. Power play has gone from mediocre to first overall. Overall play has gone from bottom 1/3rd of the league to top 10. However, they were on pace for 78 points. Odds of making the playoffs have climbed from 24% to 34% on Moneypuck, and from 59% to 69% on Dom Luszczyszyn's Athletic model.

Record
------
Babcock - 9-10-4 .478 winning % / 78 point season pace (25th overall)
Keefe - 5-3-0 .625 winning % / 103 point season pace (12th overall)
Combined 14-13-4 .516 winning % / 85 point season pace (23rd overall)

Powerplay
------
Babcock - 13 for 74 / 17.6% (18th overall)
Keefe - 5 for 12 / 41.7% (T-1st overall)
Combined - 18 for 86 / 20.9% (10th overall)

Penalty Kill
------
Babcock - 57 for 78 / 73.1% (27th overall)
Keefe - 18 for 20 / 90.0% (1st overall)
Combined - 75 for 98 / 76.5% (25th overall)

Advanced Stats
-------
Corsi For % - Babcock - 53.45% (2nd overall)
Corsi For % - Keefe - 52.65% (8th overall)
Corsi For - Combined - 53.53% (5th overall)
Expected Goals For % - Babcock - 48.76% (21st overall)
Expected Goals For % - Keefe - 53.4% (8th overall)
Expected Goals For % - Combined - 50.09 (16th overall)
Goals for % - Babcock - 47.47% (22nd overall)
Goals for % - Keefe - 51.52% (14th overall)
Goals for % - Combined - 48.48% (22nd overall)

Odds of making playoffs
-------
Moneypuck - Babcock - 24.0% (On November 20th)
Moneypuck - Combined - 34.4%
TheAthletic - Beginning of Season - 95%
TheAthletic - Babcock - 59% (On November 20th)
TheAthletic - Comined - 69%

 

[zeke]

Out of curiosity, I ran some Babcock versus Keefe numbers, now that we're 8 games in. This should provide some perspective on where they're at, and the work they need to do in order to make the playoffs. I think the numbers show that they are playing better than .625 winning % they've had under Keefe so far, due to quality of competition. Boston has played at a .741 clip so far this year. I believe the Leafs can sustain a .700-ish winning % the remainder of the year, going the equivalent of 35-16, to finish with 102 points.

Essentially, Babcock was running the 5th worst team in the NHL for the first 23 games. Keefe is running a top 10 club. Combined, they still have a ton of work to do in order to squeak into the playoffs. Penalty kill has gone from essentially worst to first overall. Power play has gone from mediocre to first overall. Overall play has gone from bottom 1/3rd of the league to top 10. However, they were on pace for 78 points. Odds of making the playoffs have climbed from 24% to 34% on Moneypuck, and from 59% to 69% on Dom Luszczyszyn's Athletic model.

Record
------
Babcock - 9-10-4 .478 winning % / 78 point season pace (25th overall)
Keefe - 5-3-0 .625 winning % / 103 point season pace (12th overall)
Combined 14-13-4 .516 winning % / 85 point season pace (23rd overall)

Powerplay
------
Babcock - 13 for 74 / 17.6% (18th overall)
Keefe - 5 for 12 / 41.7% (T-1st overall)
Combined - 18 for 86 / 20.9% (10th overall)

Penalty Kill
------
Babcock - 57 for 78 / 73.1% (27th overall)
Keefe - 18 for 20 / 90.0% (1st overall)
Combined - 75 for 98 / 76.5% (25th overall)

Advanced Stats
-------
Corsi For % - Babcock - 53.45% (2nd overall)
Corsi For % - Keefe - 52.65% (8th overall)
Corsi For - Combined - 53.53% (5th overall)
Expected Goals For % - Babcock - 48.76% (21st overall)
Expected Goals For % - Keefe - 53.4% (8th overall)
Expected Goals For % - Combined - 50.09 (16th overall)
Goals for % - Babcock - 47.47% (22nd overall)
Goals for % - Keefe - 51.52% (14th overall)
Goals for % - Combined - 48.48% (22nd overall)

Odds of making playoffs
-------
Moneypuck - Babcock - 24.0% (On November 20th)
Moneypuck - Combined - 34.4%
TheAthletic - Beginning of Season - 95%
TheAthletic - Babcock - 59% (On November 20th)
TheAthletic - Comined - 69%

Nice work...but which possession numbers are you using?

Looks to me like they're not score-adjusted.

5v5 Adj:

Babs: 52.3cf% (#7), 47.9xgf% (#23), 46.7gf% (#23)
Keefe: 55.9cf% (#1), 56.5xgf% (#4), 53.6gf% (#13)

 

[markh100]

Nice work...but which possession numbers are you using?

Looks to me like they're not score-adjusted.

5v5 Adj:

Babs: 52.3cf% (#7), 47.9xgf% (#23), 46.7gf% (#23)
Keefe: 55.9cf% (#1), 56.5xgf% (#4), 53.6gf% (#13)

Thanks - I was using a combination on nhl.com stats and http://www.naturalstattrick.com/, as I found both sites allowed me to search by date range. Where can I find the score-adjusted numbers?

 

[zeke]

Thanks - I was using a combination on nhl.com stats and http://www.naturalstattrick.com/, as I found both sites allowed me to search by date range. Where can I find the score-adjusted numbers?

On naturalstattrick just toggle from "5v5" to "5v5 Score & Venue Adjusted".

 

[Dekes For Days]

Tampa is going to get there crap together, right?

Of course. Tampa, who has often looked way worse than Toronto has at any point this season, is going to turn it around completely and be perfectly fine, and they'll easily make the playoffs and be a contender. But the Leafs? Obviously literal pile of garbage with no chance.

At least that's what the people tell me.

 

[IPS]

So yeah, we're 28th in the league in PP opportunities, and dead last since Keefe took over as ccoach. In fact: we've had 12 PP's in 8 games since Keefe took over, 2nd last is Washington with 17.

And before I see that completely moronic logic "we don't play gritty enough to draw penalties" the NYI (the grittiest team in the league) is dead last in PP opportunities.

I'm willing to bet good money that we're going to end up 31st again.

 

[FlareKnight]

It's possible to make it. But will be hard and is going to require Dubas to step up along with the team he's got on the ice. If he can't find a real backup goalie then we're either making it and destroying Andersen or we're going to miss because our backup sucks and can't get us enough points. If he can manage that then it's at least a bit less grim.

Even if Tampa can't get their heads back on straight it is still a rough road ahead. At least should make the second half of the season entertaining. We're either going to be playing well unlike last year or we're going to be clearly out of it and in that case...things will get interesting.

 

[HolyCrap]

My god. It’s amazing how many posters rely on just made up convenient stats but not actually watch the game. It has a place but far behind the reality of the game. It’s like a new cool thing. Some posters need too stick to chess and tickle fights.