Leafs Chances of Making Playoffs (Reddit User)

[The Masters]

SoooManyBanelings82 points·12 hours ago

I covered this in a very rudimentary way in another thread:

The Leafs have 22 points in 22 games: exactly .500, so on pace for 82 points.

For reference, it took 95 points to secure a wildcard spot in the East in 2016-2017; 97 in 17-18, and 98 in 18-19. Babcock's model of 6 points every 5 games is a goal of 98.4 points, so let's take that as our "make the playoffs" target.

With 60 games remaining, the Leafs will have to be a .636 team for the rest of the season, starting tonight, to hit that target exactly.

Their points percentage over the last two seasons combined was .595, which misses the mark at only 93 points. However, in their best season, 17-18, they finished the year at .640, which is juuuuust enough.
So, the good news: It's possible/realistic to squeak in. And keep in mind that posting a .636 doesn't mean they have to win tonight, only that they have to win enough over the next 60. 60 games is a big stretch with room for both win and losing streaks. We are also probably making this calculation at the team's low point, towards what I hope is the end of a bad streak.

The bad news: I would say it's already unlikely that they make the playoffs. 22 games is not a fluke sample size, and while the team just got Tavares, Hyman, and Dermott back, it also just lost Marner, Kerfoot, and Moore. I just don't think they're going to repeat or exceed their best season yet starting tonight.

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[The Masters]

 

[Mickey Marner]

 

[The Apologist]

The Leafs played at a .675 pace through the first 40 last year before tailing off so it's not like it's unheard of for this team.

We're 20 games in, kinda early to be writing off the season.

 

[GardinerTheForward]

No Shit. We’re a lottery team.

 

[hamzarocks]

I would take lafrenriere as a consolation prize. Fire Babcock and dubas and start retooling with a kap/aj and marner/nylander trade

 

[Canada4Gold]

 

[Mickey Marner]

Nah, we have two 1Cs. Lafrenière is aleady better than every LW on our team.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Nah, we have two 1Cs. Lafrenière is aleady better than every LW on our team.

??

 

[Cotton]

Lafreniere is the best player in the draft, he would be as obvious a choice at 1 as Matthews was.

It's also pretty f***ing nuts the Leafs drafting around that pick is being talked about, so much fail from this team.

Our odds of making the playoffs are slim to none, I'm full on the tank of picking in the top 10.

 

[Trapper]

The Leafs played at a .675 pace through the first 40 last year before tailing off so it's not like it's unheard of for this team.

We're 20 games in, kinda early to be writing off the season.

But then they struggled mightily through the next 40 when things tighten up and those playoff teams are hitting their stride. Added to the 3 point game system and it’s never to early to be good.

 

[IPS]

Lafreniere is the best player in the draft, he would be as obvious a choice at 1 as Matthews was.

It's also pretty ****ing nuts the Leafs drafting around that pick is being talked about, so much fail from this team.

Our odds of making the playoffs are slim to none, I'm full on the tank of picking in the top 10.

I'm honestly not that far off from cheering on the tank.

I never thought this season would go this bad this quick.

 

[lovemyleafs]

This thread is so sad.
Here we were thinking this team had a solid shot at winning it all this year.
Instead we're 23 games into the season and discussing who we should draft with our first round pick (top 10 protected).
All aboard the tank train i guess?

 

[saffronleaf]

We're not making the playoffs.

 

[Kiwi]

We're not making the playoffs.

This would be the correct answer

It's just a matter of keeping our 1st round pick at this point for me

 

[PromisedLand]

We're not making the playoffs.

I called it on July 27th and Aug 28th that it won't be easy for the Leafs to make the playoffs

July 27th
Kyle Dubas Part 3

Aug 28th
News Article: - NHL season preview of the Toronto Maple Leafs

This is called foresight; I wish the moron we hired for GM had foresight

 

[Rogue Leader]

This took me a while, but does this guy actually mean that not making the playoffs will be good for us, because if we do we will play the Bruins and lose anyway?!? Wtf!?!

 

[MattySnipes]

Lafreniere is the best player in the draft, he would be as obvious a choice at 1 as Matthews was.

It's also pretty ****ing nuts the Leafs drafting around that pick is being talked about, so much fail from this team.

Our odds of making the playoffs are slim to none, I'm full on the tank of picking in the top 10.

Hypothetically, would you entertain trading the first and taking Byfield over Laf instead?

 

[HomerJLeafs]

We're not making the playoffs.

holy f***
we had a full decade when we had such bad teams that it was f***ing unwatchable and everything sucked
then Shanahan came in and we all thought that finally something is going in the right direction and we gonna win the Cup in the forseeable future
and right now this team SUCKS
im so disappointed
i had enough of the bad teams
i want to love this team and i want a Cup
f*** the tanking and f*** the no PO!!

 

[MSZ]

This thread is so sad.
Here we were thinking this team had a solid shot at winning it all this year.
Instead we're 23 games into the season and discussing who we should draft with our first round pick (top 10 protected).
All aboard the tank train i guess?

Welcome to the tank nation!

 

[82Ninety42011]

Damn Leaf fans already thinking tank talk wtf?? Just a couple weeks ago they were contenders. Get a grip people it's a long season and the talent is there. Worry about winning one game at a time lots of hockey left. People forget where the Blues were last year and that turned out pretty good.

 

[Pi]

Damn Leaf fans already thinking tank talk wtf?? Just a couple weeks ago they were contenders. Get a grip people it's a long season and the talent is there. Worry about winning one game at a time lots of hockey left. People forget where the Blues were last year and that turned out pretty good.

That was unlikely. It is not likely that the Leafs would do that. Don't forget that the Blues also changed coaches.

The Leafs don't plan on doing that right now. Talent is there but confidence is zero.

They aren't making the playoffs.

 

[82Ninety42011]

That was unlikely. It is not likely that the Leafs would do that. Don't forget that the Blues also changed coaches.

The Leafs don't plan on doing that right now. Talent is there but confidence is zero.

They aren't making the playoffs.

Can't give up this early but yes I agree doesn't look good at moment.

 

[Pi]

Can't give up this early but yes I agree doesn't look good at moment.

It's not early though. They have been bad for the entirety of 2019 before and after changes made to the roster and coaching staff.

The players don't seem to like Babcock.

At this point, I don't care if they make the playoffs or not. I want Babcock gone. He's not the right coach for this team. He wants to try to win 2-1 hockey games but always ends up being the team that scores the one goal.

 

[mclaren55]

I guess everyone’s fancy analytics from games 10-15 arent coming to fruition? Who would have thought that the eye test was telling us all the truth. This team is an unmitigated diasaster.