Lavy, is the clock really ticking?

[Armourboy]

Poile isn't going anywhere unless he decides to retire, yall might as well give that hope up. The ownership group is not going to do that.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Whether it should be or not is another argument but I don't see Poile's seat as being even remotely warm. We've been one of the top 5 most successful franchises over the last 3 seasons and perhaps more importantly to ownership we havr, as FossilFndr notes, consistently sold out our home games over that interval. No ownership group is going to dump a guy who has achieved that over one bad year.

Except it’s not just one bad year. We have been getting progressively worse over the past 2 seasons. Most of us can see that this team is sinking. Only a matter of time before we see the seats being empty as well

I see both of these... what would be ideal is if Poile would see these things too. True, his seat is not warm and they're not going to fire him over this one (projected) bad year. But also true, the team has been trending the wrong direction with progressively more lacklustre playoff showings and the potential of dropping out of the playoffs entirely this year. And this is NOT what he was envisioning when he put this roster together, one may be sure of that. He built this team to contend. He believed there was a legitimate contending window that should be wide open right now, just like we all believed it.

So while his job isn't in any immediate danger, his legacy, the legacy of the efforts he put into constructing this team, is certainly in danger. Which means he needs to seriously - SERIOUSLY - question why that is, and what (if anything) he can do about it at this point. It's dead obvious to us that one thing he can try is changing the coaching staff. He needs to put on his big boy GM pants and come to the realization that this is his next to last chance to try to salvage the legacy of what he has built here. The longer he sits on it, the warmer his seat may become - somewhere further down the road, granted. But he really should be motivated by some desperation now if he never has been before. He's not long for the job either way - via retirement if nothing else - so if he wants this core to fulfill his dreams of finally having created a champion, he really needs to be pushing those few buttons he has left at his disposal. Now is not the time to be waffling or sentimental about it.

 

[predfan24]

I keep refreshing HF every couple hours expecting to see an announcement. Perhaps I'm living in la-la land.

At this point, Poile would have to be doing some serious mental gymnastics to rationalize how this season could turn around under Lavy. Will a new coach turn it around? I don't know. In fact, with a gun to my head, I'd say the likelihood that a new coach could come in and the team would experience a "Blues" like effect to be less than 50%. However, under Lavy that percentage is <10%. I would be shocked and I'm normally optimistic. Not firing Lavy is conceding the season IMO

 

[FossilFndr]

I keep refreshing HF every couple hours expecting to see an announcement. Perhaps I'm living in la-la land.

At this point, Poile would have to be doing some serious mental gymnastics to rationalize how this season could turn around under Lavy. Will a new coach turn it around? I don't know. In fact, with a gun to my head, I'd say the likelihood that a new coach could come in and the team would experience a "Blues" like effect to be less than 50%. However, under Lavy that percentage is <10%. I would be shocked and I'm normally optimistic. Not firing Lavy is conceding the season IMO

I logged in now for just that reason.

 

[101st_fan]

The playoffs under Lavy have been a pyramid of success .... elimination in the 1st, 2nd, SCF, 2nd, 1st. A President's Trophy followed by a second consecutive regular season division championship are the levels of regular season overall success that the owners are looking for.

The cracks in the armor really started showing last season with the PP% at the bottom of the league in stark contrast to the team's ES scoring. This year it remains near the bottom of the league and the PK% has dropped as well. Players are well off their historic scoring patterns this season ... Duchene, Smith, Granlund. Overall team defense is showing issues resulting in one of the worst goals allowed per game. What were cracks last regular season have expanded and spread to other areas. Things have reached the point where if the team doesn't somehow capitalize on the games in hand it has then it sits at the bottom of the division with glaring issues in special teams and keeping the puck out of the net behind our goalies ... either the current staff needs to make drastic changes or the staff needs changing.

 

[Softball99]

Poile answers to the owners. Owners are health insurance and entertainment backgrounds. The only thing they care about #1 is ticket sales not on ice success. The owners have handcuffed Poile because they don't want to "waste" money buy paying 2 HCs. These people invented the Regular Season Western Conference Championship banner and thought the pedal tavern was the winning ticket. Along with the cursed PP anthem"Up in here".
Party over on the ice product.

 

[Armourboy]

I think we are more of a skill based team now than that get in the corners and grind it out teams Lavi had early on and they either don't know how or won't change what they are doing to adjust to that.

Also normally when we are struggling in the past he would simplify and play defense and then try and open things up. He hasn't even tried that this year. I really think it's a case of not being able to see the forest for the trees.

 

[101st_fan]

Poile answers to the owners. Owners are health insurance and entertainment backgrounds. The only thing they care about #1 is ticket sales not on ice success. The owners have handcuffed Poile because they don't want to "waste" money buy paying 2 HCs. These people invented the Regular Season Western Conference Championship banner and thought the pedal tavern was the winning ticket. Along with the cursed PP anthem"Up in here".
Party over on the ice product.

The team's cap it is over $79mil with over $70mil allocated against next season with only 15 players signed .... it's not as though the owners are skimping on salaries right now.

The party over on ice product is a league wide, actually sports wide, aspect of games now. Bands, coupon dropping blimps, songs, pedal taverns, bigger badder screens on scoreboards ... it is part of all sports now.

 

[Armourboy]

I don't think money has a thing to do with it, I just don't think Poile is ready to pull the trigger yet.

 

[predfan98]

The only thing we can hope for is the owners went to Dallas and felt utter humiliation and are asking poile wth. Yea, less than 1% chance of happening....
poile won’t fire lavy unless the owners say, fire him now...

 

[Predsanddead24]

I don't think money has a thing to do with it, I just don't think Poile is ready to pull the trigger yet.

I agree and as much as I want Lavi fired I can see why he hasn't done it given the available options. We have a bunch of clowns as assistant coaches and I really doubt that they could do better than Lavi is. That leaves you with Karl Taylor as your final internal option but by installing him as the interim you're causing a pretty major disruption to your developmental pipeline all for something that very likely isn't going to work out and could potentially sour the relationship with the org if he does just ok but we don't hire him as the permanent coach. Outside of that you're having to hire someone who is currently unemployed so you essentially have DeBoer or Babcock as your two options neither of which I'm particularly keen on. I'd still give Lambert a shot as a hail mary since I think we're not going to do much either way, but I can also see the logic of just riding it out and seeing what happens with Lavi.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't think money has a thing to do with it, I just don't think Poile is ready to pull the trigger yet.

Agreed. For now. But if things don't turn around it should eventually become a money thing. Again. I don't think the Preds generally have a lot of slack on the financial side of things. They still have to cut Duchene a $5M check on July 1st, and Josi a whopper at $11M, right? There's some big upfront costs there. And while I know there are questions about what franchise valuations and operating costs really mean in these kinds of lists, I'm still seeing the Preds only sitting 24th on the list with an $11M loss on the operating income list last year. There's more that goes into things, of course. And they've been much worse in the past, granted. Maybe some investment into the arena is in there for this year, I don't know. But still, for a lot of NHL teams, it's really the playoff gates that tip the balance sheet out of the red. I could imagine the Preds being in that grouping most years.

The Business Of Hockey

So now if we do fully miss the playoffs, I can certainly imagine there will be some new numbers crossing some boardroom tables that might catch an eye or two. And if that stretches out, it will inevitably become a money thing. I just don't think the Preds are ever going to have a lot of leeway... not making the playoffs and not getting those gates is eventually going to get noticed. Even if for now, Poile probably isn't thinking too much of that. I'm sure for now he's just conservatively putting his faith in Lavy and assuming the team figures out how to pull things out in the nick of time. Just like maybe he was thinking after last season's post-mortem. Or the one before. But having the red ink of a playoff miss will surely catch some attention if that transpires, moreso than the previous post-mortems.

 

[Armourboy]

Agreed. For now. But if things don't turn around it should eventually become a money thing. Again. I don't think the Preds generally have a lot of slack on the financial side of things. They still have to cut Duchene a $5M check on July 1st, and Josi a whopper at $11M, right? There's some big upfront costs there. And while I know there are questions about what franchise valuations and operating costs really mean in these kinds of lists, I'm still seeing the Preds only sitting 24th on the list with an $11M loss on the operating income list last year. There's more that goes into things, of course. And they've been much worse in the past, granted. Maybe some investment into the arena is in there for this year, I don't know. But still, for a lot of NHL teams, it's really the playoff gates that tip the balance sheet out of the red. I could imagine the Preds being in that grouping most years.

The Business Of Hockey

So now if we do fully miss the playoffs, I can certainly imagine there will be some new numbers crossing some boardroom tables that might catch an eye or two. And if that stretches out, it will inevitably become a money thing. I just don't think the Preds are ever going to have a lot of leeway... not making the playoffs and not getting those gates is eventually going to get noticed. Even if for now, Poile probably isn't thinking too much of that. I'm sure for now he's just conservatively putting his faith in Lavy and assuming the team figures out how to pull things out in the nick of time. Just like maybe he was thinking after last season's post-mortem. Or the one before. But having the red ink of a playoff miss will surely catch some attention if that transpires, moreso than the previous post-mortems.

Bridgestone is one of if not the busiest arena's in the country. Don't let them fool you, they aren't losing money.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Granted if he isn't going to fire him immediately it would be a terrible look to say that he is contemplating it.

 

[101st_fan]

If Poile isn't contemplating a coaching change then the follow up question is what does the current staff have planned to rectify the glaring issues?

 

[Predsanddead24]

If Poile isn't contemplating a coaching change then the follow up question is what does the current staff have planned to rectify the glaring issues?

Based on past history I'm going to say the coaching staff's plan is to make no changes to strategy and shuffle the lines around a bunch. Maybe we'll get lucky and they'll scratch Turris some more.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Bridgestone is one of if not the busiest arena's in the country. Don't let them fool you, they aren't losing money.

I don't think anybody doubts that Bridgestone is hugely profitable. But the Preds can be losing money independent of that. It doesn't ultimately affect the overall franchise stability anymore since they are nicely tied together now and for like 30 more years or whatever. But I'm sure if they had their choice, they'd rather have the Preds be in the black as an entity also. And playoff gates are probably the key to that particular part of the balance sheet.

 

[Armourboy]

Granted if he isn't going to fire him immediately it would be a terrible look to say that he is contemplating it.

Well let's hope he's not contemplating wasting assets on this team then.

 

[Armourboy]

I don't think anybody doubts that Bridgestone is hugely profitable. But the Preds can be losing money independent of that. It doesn't ultimately affect the overall franchise stability anymore since they are nicely tied together now and for like 30 more years or whatever. But I'm sure if they had their choice, they'd rather have the Preds be in the black as an entity also. And playoff gates are probably the key to that particular part of the balance sheet.

Like I said they aren't losing money. Despite what numbers they make public they aren't losing money on the Preds even without the playoffs and if they are they are doing something wrong.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I imagine he simply honestly believes that the team will "find a way" to turn things around. He's going to take it on faith that Lavy can turn it around. And only when it becomes mathematically certain that it's too late will he accept that's not going to happen.

So we're looking to the exit interviews timeframe when our "coaching change window" finally opens for real.

(I still don't think he ultimately makes a change in the off-season, mind you - just at least it becomes a possibility then).

 

[101st_fan]

Like I said they aren't losing money. Despite what numbers they make public they aren't losing money on the Preds even without the playoffs and if they are they are doing something wrong.

There is a reason why the ownership groups dating back to Leipold were so intent on having the arena management aspect as part of the lease ... and a cut of all the non-hockey gate revenues. There is a reason why so many of their press releases highlight the success of the arena as a whole, not just the hockey aspect.

I'd have to go back through my external drives to find the spreadsheets from the firesale days that detailed how much money went where from each type of event ... the tax split between state and Metro, what went to the team and what went to Metro from events, leasing costs per year, etc.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Seems like org is hedging bets we will do enough to get a couple of home playoff games before exiting stage left. Apparently that's ambitious enough, cause I don't see us beating any of the top 4 in our division in a best of 7 based on our play to this point. Pretty disappointing.

 

[Soundgarden]

Granted if he isn't going to fire him immediately it would be a terrible look to say that he is contemplating it.

Ugh. That doesn't instill a sense of hope for me.

 

[FossilFndr]

post removed

 

[Armourboy]

There is a reason why the ownership groups dating back to Leipold were so intent on having the arena management aspect as part of the lease ... and a cut of all the non-hockey gate revenues. There is a reason why so many of their press releases highlight the success of the arena as a whole, not just the hockey aspect.

I'd have to go back through my external drives to find the spreadsheets from the firesale days that detailed how much money went where from each type of event ... the tax split between state and Metro, what went to the team and what went to Metro from events, leasing costs per year, etc.

A lot of that has changed now I think with the Preds taking on the full responsibility of the arena.

The biggest change for the team will be from corporate dollars and advertising.