Lavy, is the clock really ticking?

[FossilFndr]

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[Armourboy]

Think he goes if we don't make the playoffs. Sadly that means this season is probably a stinker for the remainder.

 

[Legionnaire11]

I wanted to vote gone if we miss the playoffs... but I don't have faith in Poile or the ownership to make that happen. He'll finish out his contract. I can only hope that Lavy and the Preds make us all eat a giant crow feast in the meantime.

 

[101st_fan]

I saw the optimal point for a coaching staff at a couple of weeks ago before the mulitple day break between games. Under any logical perspective, this four game road trip has to be a turn the corner or make a change point ... but I would honestly be surprised if it were for Poile. Maybe the ASG break.

 

[zhok]

I would normally say no, becuase it's Poile, the most loyal GM in the history of the league.

But he's a desperate GM these past few years, throwing away 1st rd picks and assets like candy. And those assets have mostly been wasted on guys like Turris, Grandlund, Simmonds, Hartman, etc who haven't been good players for us. It's a very ugly look for both of them.

The logical move would've been moved from Lavi after he coached the most talented roster we've ever had into being a non-playoff team the 2nd half the season and easy 1st rd exit. How he kept his job is beyond me, even for loyal Poile.

But Poile is still desperate, which means unpredictable. So who knows.

 

[BigFatCat999]

is it? This is a DEEP draft. This season has the aire of a surprisingly shitty season, draft high, get a Seth Jones like prospect, change coaches. If the team sucks then high prospect.

or

Poile can see the end of the tunnel and has a ton of picks for trade. NSH 1ST, NJ 2ND, NSH 2ND, MINNY 3RD, NSH 3RD. This is a deep draft and 2nds will be seen at a value of a 1st. NJ's 2nd most likely will be the 2nd best in the 2nd rd.

Poile could go for Hall but I want an upgrade at D. A coach change is a wonder. You have DeBore, and Babcock.

I'm at a point where, I'm not sure what to do, but doing nothing is not anywhere close to fatal.

 

[Scoresberg]

We have been saying this for a while now but now I think this upcoming road trip is the make-or-break for Lavy. Things look bad right now but we aren't out of the playoff picture yet, so I get why Poile's giving him a chance still and also probably because there isn't a lot of options to replace him.

Ultimately, I think the chance to can him is right after the Winter Classic if things haven't gone better before.

We need to see 3-1 this road trip.

 

[herzausstein]

I voted that he'll be here through his contract... that's alot longer then i think it should be though

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I wanted to vote gone if we miss the playoffs... but I don't have faith in Poile or the ownership to make that happen. He'll finish out his contract. I can only hope that Lavy and the Preds make us all eat a giant crow feast in the meantime.

This is my take too. I wish it were otherwise. It's dead obvious at this point that the change should happen Right Now. But I have no expectation whatsoever of that actually happening. Even if they miss the playoffs.

 

[LCPreds]

It’s too late. If they play bad enough on the road trip to fire him then the hole is probably already too deep. Might as well just play it out at that point.

 

[Predsanddead24]

It’s too late. If they play bad enough on the road trip to fire him then the hole is probably already too deep. Might as well just play it out at that point.

The upside to firing him early might be that you get the chance to audition an interim and rule out whether you want them or not. I'm not particularly stoked on anyone currently in the org so it doesnt matter that much but would be interesting to give someone like Lambert a shot just to see.

 

[PredsV82]

The power play returning to craptastic form rules out Lambert. Fire everyone and bring up Taylor from Milwaukee.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

The power play returning to craptastic form rules out Lambert. Fire everyone and bring up Taylor from Milwaukee.

pretty much sums it up. the PP was a fireable offense last year. and that wasn't our only problem. it's a friggin joke here we are at this point the next season.

a year wasted with this core. although, i am not certain this group was all that special to begin with. combine that with the coaching staff's incompetence and well.. we are all just suffering as preds fans.

 

[valeriammm]

Poile waits till the end of the season is my guess. Even if we scraped by into the playoffs and inevitably are out in the first round I think Lavy is out no matter what. A coaching change has to happen, this just isnt the same team from previous years.

 

[Predsanddead24]

The power play returning to craptastic form rules out Lambert. Fire everyone and bring up Taylor from Milwaukee.

Taylor would be my top choice in a vacuum, but I think he'd be more valuable finishing out the season in Milwaukee and seeing what he can do there. Ultimately, I think whoever we put up as interim is doomed to fail so I don't want to put Taylor in that situation. Lambert is sort of then the only other choice because I'd rather let the team coach themselves than have McCarthy or Muse as the head coach.

 

[hockey diva]

A trade is just rearranging the deck chairs on a sinking ship. We need an organizational overhaul.

 

[Soundgarden]

Poile waits till the end of the season is my guess. Even if we scraped by into the playoffs and inevitably are out in the first round I think Lavy is out no matter what. A coaching change has to happen, this just isnt the same team from previous years.

And that's the problem with Poile. He's too loyal or trusting to fire a coach mid-season. We need to rip the band-aid before LA passes us if we want to make the playoffs this year.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Poile has fired 2/3 of the coaches he's ever fired midseason, but both were after the halfway point. Terry Murray was fired 46 games into the 89-90 season and Bryan Murray was fired 47 games into the 93-94 season. Both teams made the playoffs after the change (although the 93-94 team was already in a playoff spot at the time of the firing) and won at least one playoff series. Probably meaningless as these moves were made over 25 years ago but somewhat interesting nonetheless. I do wonder how much of the inability to make a move on Poile's part is because of the lack of a suitable replacement coach.

 

[Armourboy]

Poile has fired 2/3 of the coaches he's ever fired midseason, but both were after the halfway point. Terry Murray was fired 46 games into the 89-90 season and Bryan Murray was fired 47 games into the 93-94 season. Both teams made the playoffs after the change (although the 93-94 team was already in a playoff spot at the time of the firing) and won at least one playoff series. Probably meaningless as these moves were made over 25 years ago but somewhat interesting nonetheless. I do wonder how much of the inability to make a move on Poile's part is because of the lack of a suitable replacement coach.

Possibility, or could be taking a bit of time to see what he thinks would work best. He was a much younger man when he made those moves, and you would think he would be much more trigger happy being after that cup, but he does tend to go with the thought that things are an anomaly most of the time.

Really does make you wonder what he would have done with this team if he hadn't have been convinced not to make any changes following that loss against Winnipeg

 

[OldFan]

This is where being the Captain can be very difficult. If Lavy has indeed “lost” the team for whatever the reason, then all players eyes are probably on Josi to discuss the issues with Lavy and if unsuccessful, then with Poile. That’s one thing Captains are for; representing the team to management.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

This is where being the Captain can be very difficult. If Lavy has indeed “lost” the team for whatever the reason, then all players eyes are probably on Josi to discuss the issues with Lavy and if unsuccessful, then with Poile. That’s one thing Captains are for; representing the team to management.

Other than Turris... I wonder if any of the other players really have much to complain about, though? Are they being held accountable? Turris was made into some kind of random whipping boy for two weeks, but other than that the players seem to get a fairly easy go of it. Most of them have their nice long-term contracts now, Josi gets to play his style with the d-partner he seems to want to play with. Does he have any reason to bring complaints upstairs? They may be getting a little frustrated with where they are in the standings... but I'm not sure that the way Lavy has "lost" the team is really something the players are consciously aware of? They are just comfortably coasting, and he's not finding any way to light a fire, and they're mostly ok with that?

Maybe they should make Turris captain. Then see what he has to say!

 

[Scoresberg]

The clock has to be ticking for him, but there's limited options of who we want to replace him with. DeBoer would be a nice addition, as there really isn't a possible interim coach. Lambert hasn't shown anything and Taylor has to be in the AHL this year.

I can't understand why Lavy still hasn't gone back to the top line that was on fire in the beginning and made Granlund re-signable. That was a true top line, which we haven't had since.

Also, I think he should try re-uniting Turris & Smith who definitely have had chemistry in Turris' time here. Maybe try 8 and 15 on Johansen's wings?

Below, there's an image of the lines that have worked the best for us. Not everyone's healthy but why hasn't Lavy gone back to those line when everyone were good to go?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

A trade is just rearranging the deck chairs on a sinking ship. We need an organizational overhaul.

I'm trying to imagine what next year's team would look like now... I don't see any strong arguments materializing that we should keep Granlund OR Smith. Poile does seem to recognize that Turris is surplus goods, but I don't know how they'll move him. It's funny, after all those "donut" years of having some players but not being sure about our centers, now we have the centers... but other questions marks...

Here is a framework for next year's team:

Forsberg ($6M) - Duchene ($8M) - X
X - Johansen ($8M) - Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Jarnkrok ($2M) - Bonino ($4.1M) - X
Watson ($1.5M) - Sissons ($2.6M) - X
X

Josi ($9M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
Ekholm ($3.75M) - Fabbro ($0.925M)
X - X
X

Rinne ($5M)
Saros ($1.5M)

... that is ~$62.875M... suggesting we'd have around $20M to fill in the gaps. Although part of that depends on the resolution to the Turrs situation... he could be back at $6M, or bought out at $2M, or traded for something that brings a cap hit back, etc. So it could actually be stated as $14-20M cap space projected to fill those spots.

Do you try to "fill from within"? Can we get Grimaldi back after putting him through arbitration?

Forsberg ($6M) - Duchene ($8M) - Tolvanen ($0.925M)
Turris ($6M) - Johansen ($8M) - Arvidsson ($4.25M)
Grimaldi ($2M) - Bonino ($4.1M) - Jarnkrok ($2M)
Watson ($1.5M) - Sissons ($2.6M) - Trenin ($0.75M)
Olivier ($0.73M)

Josi ($9M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
Ekholm ($3.75M) - Fabbro ($0.925M)
Allard ($0.714M) - Carrier ($0.7M)
Santini ($1.416M)

Rinne ($5M)
Saros ($1.5M)

... that lineup is a shade over $76M, which could be $7M or more under the cap.

I glanced through the impending-UFA list. I doubt that total salvation exists there. But if we could get 1 or 2 sturdier D and a grittier forward or two? Edmundson and Gudas are up on D. Who is a gritty leader up front? Kyle Clifford? Some seemingly lesser UFA adds like that, IF the term and $ worked out, plus a few promotions from within is about what I'm thinking...

Yes, it's not even xmas yet and here's this post. Sigh.

 

[Scoresberg]

Why is everyone bashing on Granlund? He looked terrific with 9 and 95 and had just started producing more before he got hurt.

All of Duchene, Forsberg and Granlund have suffered from the breaking of that line.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Why is everyone bashing on Granlund? He looked terrific with 9 and 95 and had just started producing more before he got hurt.

All of Duchene, Forsberg and Granlund have suffered from the breaking of that line.

"Terrific" seems a little hyperbolic... he looked like a bit of a passenger on that line, I thought... not totally out of place, but it could have been just about anybody there... ? I wouldn't have broken the line up or anything (Forsberg's injury did that) and I would certainly go back to them again, all the same. But I just didn't see "terrific".