Prospect Info: Kole Lind, Pt. II | Is not being taken, etcetera

[The Iron Goalie]

3 assists today in his AHL season debut.

 

[kanucks25]

Honest question:

Is there any precedence of a forward putting up .33 PPG in his first AHL season (at 20 YO) being anything of substance in the NHL?

Perhaps it's even common but I really don't know; I've never paid attention to non-NHL stats unless they were head turners (like EP's for example).

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

Honest question:

Is there any precedence of a forward putting up .33 PPG in his first AHL season (at 20 YO) being anything of substance in the NHL?

Perhaps it's even common but I really don't know; I've never paid attention to non-NHL stats unless they were head turners (like EP's for example).

Probably not much, but even if it never happened before there's always a first. It was only one game but he looked like a whole new Kole Lind out there.

 

[Megaterio Llamas]

If anyone is curious you might be able to replay the game this weekend. Everything is free and I know subscribers can rewatch games all season long.

 

[FroshaugFan2]

Honest question:

Is there any precedence of a forward putting up .33 PPG in his first AHL season (at 20 YO) being anything of substance in the NHL?

Perhaps it's even common but I really don't know; I've never paid attention to non-NHL stats unless they were head turners (like EP's for example).

Mike Hoffman.

However it's definitely not common, Hoffman might be the only example currently in the NHL.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Am I blind, or does AHL not track TOI stats for players?

 

[Hoghandler]

Honest question:

Is there any precedence of a forward putting up .33 PPG in his first AHL season (at 20 YO) being anything of substance in the NHL?

Perhaps it's even common but I really don't know; I've never paid attention to non-NHL stats unless they were head turners (like EP's for example).

Need to factor in last season was only Lind's draft +2. Most guys step into the AHL in their draft +3 or later. He was physically out-matched heading into camp as a 19 year old, then got hurt a handful of games into the season which really set him back. Suffered a 2nd injury setback later in the year as well. Put this all together and you had a young guy that had his confidence shot, playing on a weak team, with weak linemates. Late in the season he started to play much better and his confidence seemed to grow.

Jared McCann is a good comparable here. Another guy drafted around the same spot that projects as a middle 6, potential top 6 winger. McCann put up .59PPG in the AHL in his draft +3 season. I would be looking for Lind to come in somewhere in that range, possibly a bit higher in this, his draft +3 season.

 

[4Twenty]

Lol comparing a guy who played in the show at 19 and 20 to a guy who couldn’t even get into the lineup regularly in the AHL at 20.

The guys nearly 21. This d+1, d+2 stuff doesn’t really mean much when he’s older than the other players on his draft class.

 

[Hodgy]

Lol comparing a guy who played in the show at 19 and 20 to a guy who couldn’t even get into the lineup regularly in the AHL at 20.

The guys nearly 21. This d+1, d+2 stuff doesn’t really mean much when he’s older than the other players on his draft class.

Ya, but Tim Thomas made the NHL in his 30st and became an all star.

 

[Hoghandler]

Lol comparing a guy who played in the show at 19 and 20 to a guy who couldn’t even get into the lineup regularly in the AHL at 20.

The guys nearly 21. This d+1, d+2 stuff doesn’t really mean much when he’s older than the other players on his draft class.

You misunderstood the comparison. The comparison wasn't intended to insinuate Lind would also be rushed to the NHL before he was ready.

The comparison was what we should expect of Lind this season, in his draft +3 in the AHL. I would expect something along the lines of what Jared McCann did in his draft +3. Yes, Lind is 6 months older. Not exactly a big factor at this age.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Honest question:

Is there any precedence of a forward putting up .33 PPG in his first AHL season (at 20 YO) being anything of substance in the NHL?

Perhaps it's even common but I really don't know; I've never paid attention to non-NHL stats unless they were head turners (like EP's for example).

jeremy davis at canucks army has a pgps system that basically tracks history of similar players. it says he has a 2% chance of being a second liner and 0% chance of being a first liner. from that i deduce there is one second liner out there.

2019 Preseason Prospect Rankings: #10 Kole Lind

the comparable picture would improve a lot if you just threw out the first half of last season and pretended he was hurt. so it depends on whether you think that 3 month period can define who a player is or can be, or whether you think we don't have enough data to make reliable projections that account for enough variables.

 

[MS]

I said before the season I expected him to score 40 or 50 points and he probably will. Problem is that still doesn’t make him a good prospect because he still can’t skate.

There is no top-6 projection here. Upside is a bottom-6 checking winger which might be possible with a bit of skating improvement as he seems to have the defensive instincts and a bit of jam (or at least a skill at getting himself punched in the face in scrums).

 

[sting101]

I said before the season I expected him to score 40 or 50 points and he probably will. Problem is that still doesn’t make him a good prospect because he still can’t skate.

There is no top-6 projection here. Upside is a bottom-6 checking winger which might be possible with a bit of skating improvement as he seems to have the defensive instincts and a bit of jam (or at least a skill at getting himself punched in the face in scrums).

Last year i called Josh Leivo a fully developed Kole Lind (if things work out) i stand by that. Leivo being perhaps a better shooter and Lind a much better playmaker which helps

It's really easy to get smitten by junior play/production and i really liked his game in Kelowna but you just cannot deny the lack of first step quickness and elite qualities required to be a top line or really good top6 player. It would be a massive outlier seeing how his development stagnated last year becoming anything of real value. At least he's making progress and becoming something for Utica....see how it goes.

 

[Hoghandler]

There is no top-6 projection here. Upside is a bottom-6 checking winger which might be possible with a bit of skating improvement as he seems to have the defensive instincts and a bit of jam (or at least a skill at getting himself punched in the face in scrums).

A couple months ago you said he had no NHL upside at all, in any role. You might be underestimating how quickly things can change for 20 year old prospects.

Lind has the smarts and requisite skill to play in a top 6, he just doesn't move well enough to project into that role at this point. His feet are the only thing really holding him back, and if he can make good strides in this area, it completely changes the projection.

Last year he was getting punched in scrums, this year he's dropping guys with punches in scrums. See how quickly things can change!

 

[F A N]

You got to wonder with players like Gadjovich and Lind, what is the best path for them. They are late birthdays so they were a bit older than draft-eligible prospects and they were in that too good for CHL (especially given Gadjovich's size and strength advantage) but evidently not good enough to be strong AHL contributors category. Do you send them back to the CHL? Obviously you could simply stop drafting late birthdays.

A couple months ago you said he had no NHL upside at all, in any role. You might be underestimating how quickly things can change for 20 year old prospects.

Lind has the smarts and requisite skill to play in a top 6, he just doesn't move well enough to project into that role at this point. His feet are the only thing really holding him back, and if he can make good strides in this area, it completely changes the projection.

Last year he was getting punched in scrums, this year he's dropping guys with punches in scrums. See how quickly things can change!

Agreed. To be fair to MS, while I think he can be a bit harsh and short-sighted at times, his opinion seems to be based on what he sees with their play at any current time. Glad to see Lind turn himself back into a legitimate prospect. Hopefully he continues to develop.

 

[Daniel Gee]

 

[Hoghandler]

It's hard to watch those videos of Lind and not see a good offensive upside there. Just such a high hockey IQ. Excellent touch with his passing game and ability to get it into the right guys hands at the right time.

Notably, Lind was on the ice in the final minute defending a one goal lead. Very encouraging for a 20 year old in the AHL, an offensive player not known for his defensive game coming out of the Dub.

Look for this kid to rocket up the prospect list this season.

 

[UticaHockey]

You got to wonder with players like Gadjovich and Lind, what is the best path for them. They are late birthdays so they were a bit older than draft-eligible prospects and they were in that too good for CHL (especially given Gadjovich's size and strength advantage) but evidently not good enough to be strong AHL contributors category. Do you send them back to the CHL? Obviously you could simply stop drafting late birthdays.



Agreed. To be fair to MS, while I think he can be a bit harsh and short-sighted at times, his opinion seems to be based on what he sees with their play at any current time. Glad to see Lind turn himself back into a legitimate prospect. Hopefully he continues to develop.

But what good would another year of dominating the CHL do? Both players underestimated how tough the transition to professional hockey would be and after a sample size of one game it appears that they put in the work over the off season to put themselves in a position to make an impact in their second season. This is all part of the development process. Not all prospects are ready to step right in and effectively play against men with the same results that they used to achieve against teenagers.

 

[VintageBure]

Honest question:

Is there any precedence of a forward putting up .33 PPG in his first AHL season (at 20 YO) being anything of substance in the NHL?

Perhaps it's even common but I really don't know; I've never paid attention to non-NHL stats unless they were head turners (like EP's for example).

I’ve found one before, haven’t done too much research but I was curious of the same thing myself. Was going to post it in this thread but honestly can’t remember. Struggled in his first AHL season, then really came on in his second year. Don’t think it’s out of the question to give a player a couple years to adjust coming out of junior. I hope Kole the best !

 

[sting101]

But what good would another year of dominating the CHL do? Both players underestimated how tough the transition to professional hockey would be and after a sample size of one game it appears that they put in the work over the off season to put themselves in a position to make an impact in their second season. This is all part of the development process. Not all prospects are ready to step right in and effectively play against men with the same results that they used to achieve against teenagers.

it sure didnt help having nagging injuries either

 

[MS]

A couple months ago you said he had no NHL upside at all, in any role. You might be underestimating how quickly things can change for 20 year old prospects.

Lind has the smarts and requisite skill to play in a top 6, he just doesn't move well enough to project into that role at this point. His feet are the only thing really holding him back, and if he can make good strides in this area, it completely changes the projection.

Last year he was getting punched in scrums, this year he's dropping guys with punches in scrums. See how quickly things can change!

A few months ago I said his upside was Nic Dowd. His upside is still Nic Dowd.

His feet and his shot and his weakness on the puck are all holding him back from being a top-6 forward. There is no projection there.

Guys who are top-6 NHL forwards never touch the AHL or destroy it when they’re there. Every grinder in the NHL was a scoring-line AHLer. Guys like Baertschi and Goldobin have more talent than Lind could ever dream of and are still fringey as hell.

If Lind scores 50 points in the AHL this year, it doesn’t mean he’s magically going to be a top-6 forward. It means he’s more likely to be a cheap depth winger.

 

[lawrence]

It's hard to watch those videos of Lind and not see a good offensive upside there. Just such a high hockey IQ. Excellent touch with his passing game and ability to get it into the right guys hands at the right time.

Notably, Lind was on the ice in the final minute defending a one goal lead. Very encouraging for a 20 year old in the AHL, an offensive player not known for his defensive game coming out of the Dub.

Look for this kid to rocket up the prospect list this season.

am I blind? his skating looks fine. Juolevi on the other hand looks slow, Lind is not.

 

[F A N]

But what good would another year of dominating the CHL do? Both players underestimated how tough the transition to professional hockey would be and after a sample size of one game it appears that they put in the work over the off season to put themselves in a position to make an impact in their second season. This is all part of the development process. Not all prospects are ready to step right in and effectively play against men with the same results that they used to achieve against teenagers.

I don't really disagree. But in the case of Lind, he did get a 6 game audition with the Comets after his last CHL season ended. While that doesn't mean it's enough to prepare Lind for pro hockey it should be enough that he isn't surprised at the level of play required.

What I was alluding to is that after the rookie season Lind and Gadjovich had, most Canucks AND Comets fans here seem to have written them off as NHL prospects. As you know, I do frequent the Comets thread and my interpretation of Comets fan opinion isn't that Lind and Gadjovich's struggles were part of the development process but that these two weren't good enough. I do not remember reading posts from Comets posters preaching patience and belief in those two developing into good AHL players. Do you disagree?

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Ya, but Tim Thomas made the NHL in his 30st and became an all star.

Don't bring that name up, please. :/

 

[Balls Mahoney]

If I didn't like you guys, I would be a huge asshole and just obsess on Nic Hague in this thread. How the 6'6 defenseman and OHL defenseman goal scoring record holder just forced his way into the Vegas lineup at 19 years old despite their defense being stacked.

But I won't. We drafted Kole Lind instead because of Benning's god-tier scouting abilities. And that's wonderful.