Speculation: KARLSSON Megathread | Part II

[danielpalfredsson]

For those that subscribe to the Athletic; How convincing is Stevenson's take that the major issue standing between Karlsson signing with the Sens or not is about bonus structure in the contract? How much of what he is saying is conjecture vs fact?


Is that the extent of what he knows? ie neighbourhood and potential wiggle room

The part everyone can see;

What I Know: While digging around in the days leading up to July 1 on what the Ottawa Senators might offer Karlsson in the way of a contract extension, I characterized it this way: “it would be in the neighbourhood of $10 million a season times eight seasons with some potential wiggle room.”

A source with knowledge of the offer said when all was said and done, the Senators’ did move north somewhat and the offer finally came in closer to $11 million than $10 million, bringing it pretty close to the extension Drew Doughty signed with the Los Angeles Kings, according to the source.

..

There really wasn't much said outside of what has already been re(reported) elsewhere.

Only that the Senators may have come up from their 10 million dollar offer to closer to the Doughty AAV, and that the source was from outside the Sens org', so it wasn't the Sens leaking stuff to make their organization look good. The offer the Sens made was close to Doughty's contract, but may not have been close at all to getting it done because it didn't have extensive signing bonuses.

Stevenson's take is that the lack of signing bonuses might be proof that the Senators are cash poor. There's no real talk about whether Karlsson would or wouldn't stay if the Senators ponied up a Tavares like contract structure.

My opinion, not the article=I don't think it's exactly a surprise that contract structure would be a big issue. I think I might have pointed it out in an earlier thread, that 10M AAV doesn't mean much because a 10M AAV contract can be drastically different depending on salary and bonus structure. I could see the Senators making a push to try and keep Karlsson after realizing how bad the offers are, especially since this article claims that he wasn't offered a full no trade clause in any new contract. That's something that sticks out to me. It makes it seem like the Senators might have been trying to get the best of both worlds, keep Karlsson for now, but leave open the option to trade him for what would then be a greater return since he'd be locked down. I doubt Karlsson signs a contract without a full NMC, so I guess it's possible the Senators might expect it to require a full NMC to re-sign him, but weren't offering it up as a negotiating tactic so that they could concede it in exchange for something else they would want in the contract.

(https://forums.redflagdeals.com/athletic-athletic-one-year-online-subscription-50-off-2170991/

There is a 50 percent off link for anybody wanting to subscribe. Maybe a bad time to subscribe with the lack of hockey news in the summer, but as someone who reads a lot of hockey content, I'd say it's worth it for 3 bucks a month.)

 

[Six Assets]

Did you read the article? can you answer my questions on that ?

just pay for it

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

just pay for it

oh was that an option.. thanks

 

[BankStreetParade]

so you didn't read the article I take it?

No, there's a paywall. I'm not subscribed to The Athletic.

 

[DueDiligence]

There really wasn't much said outside of what has already been re(reported) elsewhere.

Only that the Senators may have come up from their 10 million dollar offer to closer to the Doughty AAV, and that the source was from outside the Sens org', so it wasn't the Sens leaking stuff to make their organization look good. The offer the Sens made was close to Doughty's contract, but may not have been close at all to getting it done because it didn't have extensive signing bonuses.

Stevenson's take is that the lack of signing bonuses might be proof that the Senators are cash poor. There's no real talk about whether Karlsson would or wouldn't stay if the Senators ponied up a Tavares like contract structure.

My opinion, not the article=I don't think it's exactly a surprise that contract structure would be a big issue. I think I might have pointed it out in an earlier thread, that 10M AAV doesn't mean much because a 10M AAV contract can be drastically different depending on salary and bonus structure. I could see the Senators making a push to try and keep Karlsson after realizing how bad the offers are, especially since this article claims that he wasn't offered a full no trade clause in any new contract. That's something that sticks out to me. It makes it seem like the Senators might have been trying to get the best of both worlds, keep Karlsson for now, but leave open the option to trade him for what would then be a greater return since he'd be locked down. I doubt Karlsson signs a contract without a full NMC, so I guess it's possible the Senators might expect it to require a full NMC to re-sign him, but weren't offering it up as a negotiating tactic so that they could concede it in exchange for something else they would want in the contract.

(https://forums.redflagdeals.com/athletic-athletic-one-year-online-subscription-50-off-2170991/

There is a 50 percent off link for anybody wanting to subscribe. Maybe a bad time to subscribe with the lack of hockey news in the summer, but as someone who reads a lot of hockey content, I'd say it's worth it for 3 bucks a month.)

The Senators are cash poor. No doubt about that.

 

[Ray Kinsella]

The Sens will ALWAYS pay top dollar for intangibles. Talent? Ehhhhh not so much!

When you say top “dollar”, do you mean that the Sens actually pay $1 for intangibles?

 

[Ray Kinsella]

I'm glad to hear they upped their offer and are basically offering Doughty money.

Now all speculation on my part but $6-8M-ish in signing bonuses for Karlsson, $4-6M or so for both Stone and Duchene, add in Ryan's bonuses. That could be about $20M due on May/July 1st each year and I can understand how that would be tough to manage for a small market team. With only a few exceptions for the weathy, this new contract structure of bonus laden contracts is going to be tough to handle for most teams.

Is that actually true though regarding 11M? As far as I know, there was never any facts about any details of the initial offer, just rumours really.

 

[Ray Kinsella]

If Karlsson didn't want to stay in Ottawa, why was there even a negotiation at all?

We don’t know anything of any of the discussions or negotiations that went on between the Sens and the Karlsson camp. Concluding he doesn’t want to stay in Ottawa is another unsupported assumption. Many things can factor in to him speaking with other teams... and none of us know what they are.

 

[BankStreetParade]

We don’t know anything of any of the discussions or negotiations that went on between the Sens and the Karlsson camp. Concluding he doesn’t want to stay in Ottawa is another unsupported assumption. Many things can factor in to him speaking with other teams... and none of us know what they are.

Well it's a pretty marked shift in tone. Things have been on absolute edge since reports started coming out that Karlsson was close to being dealt at the TDL. Now there's talk that there's been negotiation on a contract between the two sides after reports came out that Dorion gave permission to Karlsson's agent to negotiate extensions with teams that might want to acquire him? Not to mention the several instances of various frontrunners being on the verge of acquiring him.

It's all very confusing. I just don't know that I understand why there would be any negotiation between the two sides if Karlsson was allegedly steadfast on leaving.

 

[Ray Kinsella]

Well it's a pretty marked shift in tone. Things have been on absolute edge since reports started coming out that Karlsson was close to being dealt at the TDL. Now there's talk that there's been negotiation on a contract between the two sides after reports came out that Dorion gave permission to Karlsson's agent to negotiate extensions with teams that might want to acquire him? Not to mention the several instances of various frontrunners being on the verge of acquiring him.

It's all very confusing. I just don't know that I understand why there would be any negotiation between the two sides if Karlsson was allegedly steadfast on leaving.

The front runner changed about 3 times a week since the beginning of the month. Hence why I gave up on any of the sports media rumours at this point concerning this particular situation.

Other than the Sens organization wanting to save face on their stance to the fans that they would make EK an offer, I agree with your last point.

In the end, we know nothing and as another poster mentioned, i’ve never seen the organization being so tight-lipped in the past. Many, if not most, of the statements made in some of these threads, I feel, are self-made conclusions.

Whether we accept it or not, we’re completely in the dark here.

 

[armani]

Sens can meet EK's demands by liquidating elsewhere. Anderson, Smyth, and Ceci contracts need to go. This will also leave enough for Duchene and Stone.

 

[Punchbowl]

When you say top “dollar”, do you mean that the Sens actually pay $1 for intangibles?

You gotta keep in mind, these are locally grown intangibles. All organic, non GMO, solid Ottawa lads.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

So you legit think Florida and Dallas are among the largest markets?

I know Both Tampa and Dallas are larger markets than Ottawa.

NHL Cities by population

NHL Cities - Ranked by Population - Stats Hockey


NHL Cities By Population Quiz Stats - By aheig82

 

[coladin]

I didn't read the article , But it makes sense with what i am hearing from a reliable source. I am not totally convinced but the source states that he is clearly focussing on signing and trying every angle to get the best deal possible. If it is boiling down to money, as my source told me a while ago, then that is a positive thing. It is looking increasingly like the deals outside of Ottawa are not significantly different enough to warrant uprooting the wife's family. They are still working on kids and grandparents are at their service.

The more quiet it gets, the more likely that there is very little GM chatter.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I know Both Tampa and Dallas are larger markets than Ottawa.

NHL Cities by population

NHL Cities - Ranked by Population - Stats Hockey


NHL Cities By Population Quiz Stats - By aheig82

Population doesn’t make it a bigger hockey market.

Do you also believe that Dallas is a bigger hockey market than every Canadian city?

 

[Ice-Tray]

I didn't read the article , But it makes sense with what i am hearing from a reliable source. I am not totally convinced but the source states that he is clearly focussing on signing and trying every angle to get the best deal possible. If it is boiling down to money, as my source told me a while ago, then that is a positive thing. It is looking increasingly like the deals outside of Ottawa are not significantly different enough to warrant uprooting the wife's family. They are still working on kids and grandparents are at their service.

The more quiet it gets, the more likely that there is very little GM chatter.

Very cool, thanks for sharing.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I didn't read the article , But it makes sense with what i am hearing from a reliable source. I am not totally convinced but the source states that he is clearly focussing on signing and trying every angle to get the best deal possible. If it is boiling down to money, as my source told me a while ago, then that is a positive thing. It is looking increasingly like the deals outside of Ottawa are not significantly different enough to warrant uprooting the wife's family. They are still working on kids and grandparents are at their service.

The more quiet it gets, the more likely that there is very little GM chatter.

Hopefully true... Let's hope Cash Poor Melnyk can add some bonus money and get it done.
So presumably the Sens offered Karlsson 10 July 1 and upped that to close to 11 ... According to Stevenson the deal was rejected because the Karlsson camp wanted more upfront money and protection from a lockout. On July 2 the Sens gave permission to Karlsson to talk extension with other teams.. If all they are apart on is bonus $ why give him permission that quickly? Maybe its all part of it and they still want to sign him and maybe Karlsson somehow wants to stay. It just doesn't seem that way to me.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Population doesn’t make it a bigger hockey market.

If not Population, then what does?

 

[Ray Kinsella]

If not Population, then what does?

Economy is a possible guess...

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

If not Population, then what does?

So, Shanghai is next for an NHL expansion team?

 

[MakeOttawaGreatAgain]

I

So, Shanghai is next for an NHL expansion team?

If Shanghai was in the USA, I'm sure it'd have at least two teams.

Unless you are suggesting that Chinese people don't watch hockey?

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I


If Shanghai was in the USA, I'm sure it'd have at least two teams.

Unless you are suggesting that Chinese people don't watch hockey?

Well, according to someone, population is all that matters to be a good market for an NHL team. I could've substituted Mexico City for Shanghai, if folks would rather stay in the Americas.

 

[MakeOttawaGreatAgain]

Well, according to someone, population is all that matters to be a good market for an NHL team. I could've substituted Mexico City for Shanghai, if folks would rather stay in the Americas.

What's wrong with Mexicans?

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Well, according to someone, population is all that matters to be a good market for an NHL team. I could've substituted Mexico City for Shanghai, if folks would rather stay in the Americas.

So are you suggesting that Population of a market place has no impact on the revenue streams of a NHL franchise?

If so, can you explain why the Leafs can charge a local broadcast advertiser 10 time the rate the same advertiser would be charged in Ottawa?

 

[topshelf15]

So are you suggesting that Population of a market place has no impact on the revenue streams of a NHL franchise?

If so, can you explain why the Leafs can charge a local broadcast advertiser 10 time the rate the same advertiser would be charged in Ottawa?

How are we comparing the Leafs to any other market???Its the largest Canadian city....And last time I checked hockey is a very canadian game