The thing is, he doesn't have to be a 1.6ppg player, which he obviously won't keep up. But even after a regression that number could settle into something good, and he's a good defensive player to boot and has a high motor - I say play both of them with Matthews when Willy gets back. But Regardless of his current production, Kapanen is showing he has what it takes to stick on our top line.
The thing is, he doesn't have to be a 1.6ppg player, which he obviously won't keep up. But even after a regression that number could settle into something good, and he's a good defensive player to boot and has a high motor - I say play both of them with Matthews when Willy gets back. But Regardless of his current production, Kapanen is showing he has what it takes to stick on our top line.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
Players don’t randommy start shooting 10+ % above their career average without getting a massive amount of luck. PDO essentially measures unsustainable streaks, anything above 100 is abnormal and he’s well above that.
For every example of a smaller ample size being a true indicator of a players ability there are hubdreds of examples to the contrary.
There seems to be some chemistry with Matthews but that doesn’t mean his current offensive output is going to last or even be close to what it is presently.
I mean Leafs abs have gone through this song and dance countless times. I remember when everybody proclaimed Percy a lock to be a top pair D man because of a couple hot games during his initial callup....
Kappy won't shoot 23% cause no one does but his career averages are pretty useless in this scenario considering he was stuck on a booty fourth line for the first 50 games of his career compared to playing on a top line with skill players now - The proper role for Kapanen.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
The best snipers in the league don’t shoot anywhere near that.
Yes he’s been given an opportunity to shine, br this is such a randomized sample Dubas would be an idiot to make a major decision based on it. Fortunately he doesn’t seem to be one
Polaris1010
Registered User
Yeah but ...
Then why bring up those figures at all.
We all see they are on a roll. Matthews hot start is a good launch for him to possibly getting to 50 goals this year. Some years are better than others. That is a fact in pro sports.
Kapanen, sure looks like he can hang with Matthews. That's really all we need to know. If he cools off ... well ... like ... what is the surprise there?
What you guys who are into this stuff may want to find out, is extrapolate this hot start in the past 5 games from Matthews + Kappenan and compare that to Matthews + Nylander.
Just take the stats of the last 5 games and assume that is 10 games played together by Matthews + Kapanen. We make the assumption they will not register another point in the next 5 games.
Then that that manufactured 10 game segment (which consists of only 5 games) and we try to compare it to any 10 game segment of when Matthews + Nylander played together.
Did Matthews + Nylander ever exhibit this type of production and dominance that we have seen in this segment with Matthews + Kapanen.
I do not believe we have. Matthews + Kapeanen may indeed be better that any other Matthews + player combination.
Polaris1010
Registered User
Kapanen a first round draft choice. Matthews first draft choice overall. Marleau forget he went 1st or 2nd. They will be good.
rumman
Registered User
- Sep 10, 2008
- 13,976
- 10,183
Now we have players demanding where and when they play? To this I'd say "don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out Willie".
PromisedLand
I need more FOOD
Kapanen who called Nylander his "best friend" said he's not trying to take Nylander's spot in the lineup.
"I get to play with those guys for now and who knows what happens once he comes back," Kapanen said after Tuesday's practice. "I'm not trying to steal anybody's spot or whatever like that. He's pretty much my brother - he's a brother to me - and I've been trying to talk to him a little bit now but it's all good. I don't think Willie's too upset or he's not rooting for me. Obviously he's going to be happy for me and hopefully we see him soon."
https://www.tsn.ca/babcock-mum-on-lines-when-nylander-returns-1.1192727
Morale of the story:
St0p making these division based threads ffs
"I get to play with those guys for now and who knows what happens once he comes back," Kapanen said after Tuesday's practice. "I'm not trying to steal anybody's spot or whatever like that. He's pretty much my brother - he's a brother to me - and I've been trying to talk to him a little bit now but it's all good. I don't think Willie's too upset or he's not rooting for me. Obviously he's going to be happy for me and hopefully we see him soon."
https://www.tsn.ca/babcock-mum-on-lines-when-nylander-returns-1.1192727
Morale of the story:
St0p making these division based threads ffs
I dunno, we’ve seen Kadri+Nylander before, and ... meh. Kadri+Marner were dominant together though. I think JT would likely do great with Marner or Nylander, but I think Kadri is much more likely to be great with Marner than Nylander, based on seeing these pairings last year.
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Is this really a debate? Willy is the better player hands down. I do think Kappy is a solid top 6 player and an ideal winger for Matthews though. The major difference between the 2 is Kapanen is great in a complimentary role whereas Nylander should be the focal point of any line he plays on. He can drive a line on his own and I've always felt despite some success together he and Matthews cancelled eachother out a little bit.
Factor in team needs and salary though and I'm all for trading Nylander for some D help and signing Kapanen to a more team friendly contract... Which Dubas should do quick before Kapanen puts up 60+ points and its the Nylander situation all over
Factor in team needs and salary though and I'm all for trading Nylander for some D help and signing Kapanen to a more team friendly contract... Which Dubas should do quick before Kapanen puts up 60+ points and its the Nylander situation all over
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I don't think this is fair or accurate TBH. Willy's puck retrieval ability is one of the major strengths of his game. He also hounds pucks on the back check and causes turnovers. Kapanen is the faster player though. Probably faster than about 99% of the league so he's almost always the first to pucks which is a huge advantage
DarkKnight
Professional Amateur
- Jan 17, 2017
- 32,413
- 50,293
I think we need to pump the brakes a tad on Kappy, I found today's radio analysis over the top. It's been 5 games, and he's playing with a superstar. I'm loving the coming out party, don't confuse, but it's too much for me at the moment. He ain't Nylander.
I'm a big Kappy fan and believe he'll be a really good NHL player but Nylander is way better right now and its not even close. Kapanen has been productive for EIGHT DAYS in the NHL vs Nylanders two full seasons. Maybe give it a few weeks before we start going nutso.
Not many guys put up as many points at such a young age as Kappy did in the AHL, but most guys didnt play as many games either. The best comparrisons for his progression right now are Brett Connolly and Ryan Spooner. Almost identical PPG and games played before making the NHL. While a bit younger, a solid 3rd liner with the potential to play up is about what he'll be. I like the guy but all this talk about him making Nylander expendable is crazy.
I posted it the other day but only 21 active players have put up back to back 60 point seasons by age 21 like Nylander has and most of them are sure fire hall of famers. The youngish ones are McDavid, Laine, F.Forsberg, Monahan, Pasta, Ehlers, Marner.
Nylander actually projects really similarly to Forsberg and is comparable to Marner and Ehlers right now (despite Marners hot start and Ehlers cold streak). As long as we get him between $6M and $7M you lock him into your top 6 the next 6-8 years easily.
Not many guys put up as many points at such a young age as Kappy did in the AHL, but most guys didnt play as many games either. The best comparrisons for his progression right now are Brett Connolly and Ryan Spooner. Almost identical PPG and games played before making the NHL. While a bit younger, a solid 3rd liner with the potential to play up is about what he'll be. I like the guy but all this talk about him making Nylander expendable is crazy.
I posted it the other day but only 21 active players have put up back to back 60 point seasons by age 21 like Nylander has and most of them are sure fire hall of famers. The youngish ones are McDavid, Laine, F.Forsberg, Monahan, Pasta, Ehlers, Marner.
Nylander actually projects really similarly to Forsberg and is comparable to Marner and Ehlers right now (despite Marners hot start and Ehlers cold streak). As long as we get him between $6M and $7M you lock him into your top 6 the next 6-8 years easily.
Duke Silver
Truce?
You're not adding to it, just diverting it with tangential nonsense.
Let's stick to the actual discussion at hand: Kapanen, and how we shouldn't be replacing Nylander as Matthews' winger based on a 5 game sample from Kappy.
Mikeyg
Registered User
- Dec 26, 2011
- 8,884
- 2,579
If nylander comes back, blackhole brown needs to be moved down so kap can stay in the top 9 at very least.
Kevs Security
inmateMack/CanesMack/LeafMack/elMacko
SeenSchenn2
Itchin' For Mitch
Liminality
Registered User
- Oct 22, 2008
- 13,366
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At best? I'm not sure about that. I think he could be a top 6 forward still at his age. He'll be most likely the complimentary type though.
i kinda care little about "sample size" issues
i look at how they are getting it done and how much "fluke" is involved with his points (kappy)
well, that line is playing playoff style hockey and these points that he is getting don't look cheap or fluky.
you are right kappy is a BETTER 1rst line winger
and willi is a BETTER 3rd line winger.
moon111
Registered User
- Oct 18, 2014
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