Kapanen or Nylander?

[Polaris1010]

You're not adding to it, just diverting it with tangential nonsense.

Let's stick to the actual discussion at hand: Kapanen, and how we shouldn't be replacing Nylander as Matthews' winger based on a 5 game sample from Kappy.

Looks like you made up your mind.

What what this discussion is oblivious to, is that no one has the luxury of time.

Babcock has 5 games to make an evaluation. That is all he has at the moment. He cannot say he wants more, because he has to fill in the lineup card the next game.

The question is has Kapanen shown enough to be Matthews permanent winger going forward?

If not, then define what you consider is enough evidence.

At this point, it is obvious how absurd you guys are being.

How many games is enough? What criteria you want? In the meantime how will Babcock fill up the line card, maybe use the player who is not even here?

Do the Leafs or any organization have the luxury of rotating every player to play with their star player? You think that is a good idea? No.

Small sample sizes are a fact of life.

The coaching staff sees how they are playing, and they make a decision, whether it is 2 games like for Ennis, 5 games, or 2 seasons.

You guys cannot accept the reality of it. If the data is not nice and neat, you guys flip out, or worst become indecisive.

 

[Polaris1010]

Recency bias in this thread is bonkers.

That's just a fancy way of saying its been 5 games.

Do you have an opinion on this? Kapanen better or Nylander better as Matthews linemate.

Imagine you're the coach. You set the line up. You have 5 games.

Go!

 

[Boutette]

You're not adding to it, just diverting it with tangential nonsense.

Let's stick to the actual discussion at hand: Kapanen, and how we shouldn't be replacing Nylander as Matthews' winger based on a 5 game sample from Kappy.

But the coaching doesn't have just a 5 game sample. They also have a 38 game sample of him last year being so dominant on the 4th line that teams were line matching 3rd liners with him and his anchors just to try to contain him. And they also have Nylander stumbling a bit when Matthews was out. And they also have comparatives to how they both played on the Marlies. Hockey players don't just drop out of the sky.

Mind you, once Tavares was signed, I could see the writing on the wall that Nylander had become expendable, so someone was a likely replacement. I expected that Hyman would stay, so Johnsson seemed more likely. I'm good with Kapanen, though, as the line needed a chaser once Hyman was moved to Tavares line.

 

[Razz]

Karlson was signed for *one year*. One single year. With Kapanen the Leafs are looking at a long term contract. People need to use their brains.

I don't think Kapanen will get a lot of term regardless of how good his season is. 2-4 years maximum.

 

[Boutette]

I don't think Kapanen will get a lot of term regardless of how good his season is. 2-4 years maximum.

He will if Nylander doesn't and they can get a contract like what Kadri/Reilly/Zaitsev agreed on. I don't think 4-5 mil for 5-6 years would be an overpayment or risk for a player like Kapanen. If he craps out, the CBA benefit on buying out 25 or younger players would take care of most of the risk.

 

[Duke Silver]

Looks like you made up your mind.

What what this discussion is oblivious to, is that no one has the luxury of time.

Babcock has 5 games to make an evaluation. That is all he has at the moment. He cannot say he wants more, because he has to fill in the lineup card the next game.

The question is has Kapanen shown enough to be Matthews permanent winger going forward?

If not, then define what you consider is enough evidence.

At this point, it is obvious how absurd you guys are being.

How many games is enough? What criteria you want? In the meantime how will Babcock fill up the line card, maybe use the player who is not even here?

Do the Leafs or any organization have the luxury of rotating every player to play with their star player? You think that is a good idea? No.

Small sample sizes are a fact of life.

The coaching staff sees how they are playing, and they make a decision, whether it is 2 games like for Ennis, 5 games, or 2 seasons.

You guys cannot accept the reality of it. If the data is not nice and neat, you guys flip out, or worst become indecisive.

I hope to god you don't do any sort of statistical analysis in the real world. I can't believe this is even a discussion we're having..

Thanks for attributing a bunch of non-existent behaviours to those with counter-arguments to the fact that sample size doesn't matter, though. Strawman much?

Small sample sizes are a fact of life in that they exist, but that doesn't mean they're a reliable predictor of future happenings. It's like assuming we're going to have a super warm fall season based on yesterday's weather instead of years of seasonal trends.

Nobody is saying Kapanen cannot produce on Matthews' line at a high level, although they would like to see him do it over a larger timeframe in order to build confidence in its sustainability. They're saying that the statistical case for Nylander being able to produce at a high level on Matthews' line is stronger because he has done it over a longer, more sustained timeframe (i.e. a larger sample size).

The rest of this is incoherent rambling. I'm tired of giving out free math lessons.

 

[Duke Silver]

But the coaching doesn't have just a 5 game sample. They also have a 38 game sample of him last year being so dominant on the 4th line that teams were line matching 3rd liners with him and his anchors just to try to contain him. And they also have Nylander stumbling a bit when Matthews was out. And they also have comparatives to how they both played on the Marlies. Hockey players don't just drop out of the sky.

Mind you, once Tavares was signed, I could see the writing on the wall that Nylander had become expendable, so someone was a likely replacement. I expected that Hyman would stay, so Johnsson seemed more likely. I'm good with Kapanen, though, as the line needed a chaser once Hyman was moved to Tavares line.

I haven't seen any evidence to support your first sentence, and it feels outlandish. Teams were not hard line-matching against Kapanen last season. He didn't have the performance metrics to support such attention, and teams had other bigger fish to worry about. This feels like revisionist history.

 

[Boutette]

I haven't seen any evidence to support your first sentence, and it feels outlandish. Teams were not hard line-matching against Kapanen last season. He didn't have the performance metrics to support such attention, and teams had other bigger fish to worry about. This feels like revisionist history.

No, they weren't "hard-line" matching Kapanen's, but there was enough of it happening on the fly to people who use their eyes, because he was blowing past other teams' 4th line squads through the neutral zone with ease, where as, once you got the Bozak's line in their own end in their own they weren't easily getting out. That was the prime reason Martin got benched. He was serviceable enough, but Kapanen's speed and skill gave opposition coaches fits. Even then I could see as a top six player he'd be a 30-30 player.

 

[Polaris1010]

I hope to god you don't do any sort of statistical analysis in the real world. I can't believe this is even a discussion we're having..

Thanks for attributing a bunch of non-existent behaviours to those with counter-arguments to the fact that sample size doesn't matter, though. Strawman much?

Small sample sizes are a fact of life in that they exist, but that doesn't mean they're a reliable predictor of future happenings. It's like assuming we're going to have a super warm fall season based on yesterday's weather instead of years of seasonal trends.

Nobody is saying Kapanen cannot produce on Matthews' line at a high level, although they would like to see him do it over a larger timeframe in order to build confidence in its sustainability. They're saying that the statistical case for Nylander being able to produce at a high level on Matthews' line is stronger because he has done it over a longer, more sustained timeframe (i.e. a larger sample size).

The rest of this is incoherent rambling. I'm tired of giving out free math lessons.

Very impractical what you are suggesting.

It proves my point.

If you guys do not have nice neat data, you cannot make a decision.

That's why this discussion is completely absurd. Before analytics, the coaching staff was able to make decisions. Now ... are they frozen and defer major decisions until more data comes available?

Obviously, yes!

Imperfect data sets are a fact of life, get use it.

When confronted with imperfect data, one is required to use some judgement.

I get the sense that that is a big no-no, no judgement allowed. Wait another 40 games for the data, and only the data. How dogmatic can we be?

 

[MJ65]

Nice article on Kapanen - Kessel trade

Phil Kessel-Kasperi Kapanen deal has worked out for both teams

 

[Menzinger]

If you understand the situation, how the CBA works, and Kapanen's pedigree and his talent, you definitely look for a long term contract for Kapanen. Not 7 or eight years of course, but something like 5.

He hasn’t come anywhere close to earning that yet. You lock him up on a super cheap 2-3 year deal and worry about it later.

 

[Menzinger]

Right now perhaps, only because Kapanen has never really had a shot at playing with gifted offensive players. He was a former 1st round pick, so its not like he is really surprising anyone. If he continues to play at this level and reaches, say 50 pts, he is more valuable than Nylander due to being a much more well rounded player.

If he gets to 50 (and that’s far from a lack), even though he’s scored far less, and proven far less, he’s worth more? Prior to this season he had a total of 10 career NHL points.....

I like Kapanen a lot but this thread is approaching the absurd.

 

[81Leafs50]

Karlson was signed for *one year*. One single year. With Kapanen the Leafs are looking at a long term contract. People need to use their brains.

YOU use your head. $5.25 does not become $8.5 on a longer term deal. They key you are missing is that ONE year of decent numbers dont make you a $10 mill player like every Leafs player the media is saying.

 

[Boutette]

YOU use your head. $5.25 does not become $8.5 on a longer term deal. They key you are missing is that ONE year of decent numbers dont make you a $10 mill player like every Leafs player the media is saying.

Wow. People here really struggle with basic comprehension and ability to read or willingness to follow a thread in order to make an intelligent response. If they did they wouldn't be creating posts based on fantasies going on between their ears. No one ever stated what you claim.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

A hockey team needs both types of players. Every team can have 1 Nylander type. Much like Kessel in Pittsburgh. But too many softies on a team and team becomes too easy to play against. But 1 is fine as long as he can fill the net.

Kappy brings more of an all round game. He took a stick from one of his defenseman at practice fighting for position in front of net IN PRACTICE. He has that little extra fight in him for pucks which guys like Nylander/Kessel never will.

Again 2 different type of players. You win with Kappy's but a Nylander helps too.

 

[Fogelhund]

William Nylander practising this week with Austrian hockey team - Sportsnet.ca

William Nylander has started practising with Austrian team Dornbirner EC while waiting out his contract impasse with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Sportsnet has learned.
The 22-year-old winger was on the ice with the Erste Bank Eishockey Liga team on Wednesday and Thursday and is expected to be at practice again on Friday. His plans beyond that are unknown to the team, according to head coach Dave MacQueen.
Nylander’s connection to Dornbirn came through his sister Jacquline Nylander Altelius, a WTA player who trains at the tennis centre adjacent to the arena. Nylander did an off-ice workout at that facility before skating with a team that includes 11 North American players, according to MacQueen.
He’s been welcomed with open arms by members of the Bulldogs and their veteran coach, who spent 15 seasons in the OHL with Peterborough, Erie and Sarnia and another two years as an assistant with the Tampa Bay Lightning before heading to Austria.
“My GM ran it by me and it took all of about three seconds to say ‘absolutely,’” MacQueen wrote in an email to Sportsnet.
Dornbirn is about a 90-minute drive from Zurich, where Nylander and his camp is believed to have sat down with Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas on Wednesday. It’s not known if that face-to-face meeting produced any progress in stalled negotiations which have kept the player away from Toronto throughout training camp and the first two weeks of the regular season.
Prior to this week, Nylander had been skating back home in central Stockholm with skills coach Jocke Ahlgren.

 

[hfman]

Let this entitled child sit out all year. He's not getting his 8 million this year, and he isn't getting it in a year from now after sitting out an entire season - so I don't know where he's getting his 8 million idea from, because he's not getting it now OR later.

This is clearly all about him and not about the team. 6.5 million isn't good enough, it has to be 8. Problem is he's never going to see 8, not now, not next year.

Bench him and see ya later

 

[81Leafs50]

 

[ShaneFalco]

Ahh Jocke. That guy knows hockey

 

[member 300185]

I feel the need to bump this because of all the Nylander and Kapanen talk.

I already stated why Kapanen is better. Last year he had 9 points in 38 games, mostly on the 4th line and no PP time. This year he already has his career high with 12 points in 14 games. He is on pace for 70 points. When Matthews gets back, that pace could grow.

Be happy guys, we found a gamer here.

 

[Menzinger]

Kapanen’s PDO is at 106 and his sh% is like 21%.

This is an unsustainable production that’s not going to last. I like him as a player a lot, but right now is a great example why people shouldn’t rely on ultra small sample sizes to try and prove a point.

 

[member 300185]

Kapanen’s PDO is at 106 and his sh% is like 21%.

This is an unsustainable production that’s not going to last. I like him as a player a lot, but right now is a great example why people shouldn’t rely on ultra small sample sizes to try and prove a point.

Really? Small sample size? He was virtually a PPG in the AHL and he has been an aggressive forechecker and fast his entire life. Thats not a small sample size. And the season is 15% done.

 

[Menzinger]

Really? Small sample size? He was virtually a PPG in the AHL and he has been an aggressive forechecker and fast his entire life. Thats not a small sample size. And the season is 15% done.

You do realize Nylander had an over PPG season in the AHL at a much younger age......


I mean come on guy, this isn’t even close.

 

[IPS]

Kapanen’s PDO is at 106 and his sh% is like 21%.

This is an unsustainable production that’s not going to last. I like him as a player a lot, but right now is a great example why people shouldn’t rely on ultra small sample sizes to try and prove a point.

I think it's important to keep these things in mind before we run away with unrealistic expectations.

 

[member 300185]

You do realize Nylander had an over PPG season in the AHL at a much younger age......


I mean come on guy, this isn’t even close.

Sure sure and players never develop and become better players. Come on guys.