Player Discussion Jonas Brodin
- Thread starter Jarick
- Start date
2Pair
Registered User
- Oct 8, 2017
- 12,633
- 5,103
Yes, the more points a hockey player scores, the better player he becomes.Because, of course, the more goals and points a Dman scores, the better he is, right?
Again, if you trade Brodin, who is your #1 LHD starting next year? Seeler? Then we will be the NYI, but without Tavares and Barzal.
Ryan f***ing Suter is the #1 Defenseman on the team.
Because, of course, the more goals and points a Dman scores, the better he is, right?
Again, if you trade Brodin, who is your #1 LHD starting next year? Seeler?
I wasn't doing anything other than posting some of his basic stats and where they ranked league wide. No speculation, commentary, or cherry picking some advanced stats.
That answer doesn't change regardless of if Brodin is traded or not.Because, of course, the more goals and points a Dman scores, the better he is, right?
Again, if you trade Brodin, who is your #1 LHD starting next year? Seeler? Then we will be the NYI, but without Tavares and Barzal.
I don't know why you are so upset. His offensive stats put him right around a #3-4.
Top 60 is 1st pairing.
60-120 is 2nd pairing
It was just some FYI stats I thought people might be interested in, and could add to the player's discussion. I had a rough idea where Dumba, Spurgeon, and Suter fit in league-wide ranks, but I didn't know how Brodin's totals stacked up.
57 look at the source, if I have something to say I say it outright. My opinions are usually out-of-step with the rest of these boards, but I defend them with some sort of semi-coherent arguments.
Saga of the Elk
Honoured Person
- May 31, 2008
- 3,166
- 976
Jonas Brodin has had a negative relative corsi five out of six seasons. Jonas Brodin has had a negative fenwick four out of six seasons. He was positive last season in those categories and also had the lowest average ice time of his career. Much has been made of his team-leading +23 rating, a dumb stat. His expected +/-, a more nuanced stat, was +2.
He has 8 points and is -5 in 44 playoff games.
He has a 47.8% corsi for his career. That means that when he is on the ice, people are taking shots at his goalie.
But he is a wonderful skater.
He has 8 points and is -5 in 44 playoff games.
He has a 47.8% corsi for his career. That means that when he is on the ice, people are taking shots at his goalie.
But he is a wonderful skater.
Saga of the Elk
Honoured Person
- May 31, 2008
- 3,166
- 976
Poking around with Capfriendly's contract comparables also tells me this ... isn't a great contract, which I always sort of just assumed it was.
Best match is Slava Voynov, who had 45 points in 102 games and A STANLEY CUP RING when he signed his deal. Brodin had 31 points in 127 games total. They got the same amount of money and term.
Amazing that Roman Josi had already signed his extremely team-friendly deal (he had 34 points in 100 games when he signed) and Brodin STILL got more money.
I think the deeper one dives on Fletcher's work, the more disappointing his mistakes become.
And no I'm not saying get rid of Brodin, he's as good a middle-pairing guy as you're likely to get and of course the cap has gone up.
Best match is Slava Voynov, who had 45 points in 102 games and A STANLEY CUP RING when he signed his deal. Brodin had 31 points in 127 games total. They got the same amount of money and term.
Amazing that Roman Josi had already signed his extremely team-friendly deal (he had 34 points in 100 games when he signed) and Brodin STILL got more money.
I think the deeper one dives on Fletcher's work, the more disappointing his mistakes become.
And no I'm not saying get rid of Brodin, he's as good a middle-pairing guy as you're likely to get and of course the cap has gone up.
Maybe I'm too forgiving, but paying $4m for a reliable middle-pairing defenseman doesn't really disappoint me.
Saga of the Elk
Honoured Person
- May 31, 2008
- 3,166
- 976
No, it's not bad in a vacuum but 500K here and there adds up! They couldn't recall the guys they wanted last season for less than that.
I think Brodin is fairly compensated but a better negotiator would have paid him less and there's plenty of evidence to support a harder line.
I'm not a fan of the shot stats in general. A Suter muffin from the point counts the same as an Ovi slapper from his spot as far as corsi/fenwick are concerned. I like it even less when used as a metric to judge d-men. I just think it's too reliant on the other 4 skaters so be willing shooters. I prefer using the heat maps/shot suppression numbers from their d-zone play as a reference.
The expected +/- (league average s% from shot location) has such a variance from what happened on ice I can't respect that stat where d-men are concerned. Spurgeon (for example) was +14 higher in 2017, and -21 lower in 2018 than his E +/-.
Saga of the Elk
Honoured Person
- May 31, 2008
- 3,166
- 976
I know they have to be taken with grains of salt, but I do prefer a player who can control the puck and take a shot and create an offensive zone faceoff to a player who chips it off the glass and has it come right back in for a defensive zone faceoff. I think corsi does an ok job of capturing that dynamic, which Brodin is not that great at compared to guys like Josi, Doughty, Suter, Spurgeon and so on.
Are you accounting for the fact that Brodin signed his contract (October 13th, 2014) and was coming off an 8g season and playing top pair with Suter? He also finished that season 18th in Norris voting.
I do wonder if the Yeo turning him in to a strictly d-zone start, shutdown pair, with Scandella the 15-16 season stunted the growth of his o-zone side of his game?
I still think if he took over Suter's 1D (all situations, big minutes spot) Brodin would be having 40p-50p seasons.
Saga of the Elk
Honoured Person
- May 31, 2008
- 3,166
- 976
I know when he signed it. Other guys were better and got less money. He signed the same contract as Adam Larsson and there's just not much argument that he's as good as Larsson.
To say he would be getting 40-50 points suggests you think he's as good, or better, than Ryan Suter? I don't.
Brodin had very little junior offense. He was good enough to be in the pros at a young age and I'm sure if he had played in the OHL he would have scored some - I see Olli Maatta as a comp to some degree.
Would he score more than he does with more minutes, sure I guess he probably would. He had HALF the shot attempts Suter did though I don't think you can pin that all on Mike Yeo. He's a defense-first guy, always has been, and most likely always will be.
Dr Jan Itor
Registered User
I'd be more interested in the relative corsi, scoring chances allowed, etc... numbers than the offensive ones.
Josi was also a - CF% rel player until the last couple of seasons; he killed Weber's stats in that department. They are also completely different players, Josi and Brodin. I'd compare Brodin to a McDonagh, Hamonic, or Suter as far as 5v5 play. None of them are racking up a lot of even strength points.
Using the E +/-:
-Brodin (2.0), Josi (4.8), and Doughty (4.7) for the 17-18 season.
-Brodin (11.9), Josi (4.5), Doughty (10.4) from the 16-17 season.
I'm not arguing Brodin is a - corsi player, but I'll take his quality shot suppression numbers/heat map over both of them. I'd also say Ellis/Ekholm and Muzzin/Forberg are better partners than Murphy/Dumba (when you consider his whole season skills).
I didn't respond to the Playoff points before but Brodin has 6p, and -3 in the last 16 games (3 series). Dumba had 4p, and -7. Suter 6p, even (2 series). Spurgeon 7p and -4. None of them are great numbers, but they are all even.
I'm not trying to pin anything on Yeo. I was just wondering if it stunted his growth.
Suter has averaged 25 ESP and 16.5 PPP per season in his time in MN. He averaged 19 ESP and 14 PPP when he was in Nashville. Given 2200+ mins ToI I think Brodin can match his MN stats, or at least match Suter's on 0.767 5v5 p/60 and 3.8 PPP/60.
Saga of the Elk
Honoured Person
- May 31, 2008
- 3,166
- 976
We might find out which is ... not good, but I share the view that Brodin has more to give as a player.
Also, lots of people in the "stats" community argued that Weber was actually an anchor on Josi, and I think that argument has largely turned out to be correct.
I agree, I expect more of Brodin, fair or not. The lack of offense for a $4M, second-pairing defenseman is a bit concerning. I have no problem moving him... if we somehow found a suitable replacement. That may not happen though.
Edit: He actually had more points this year than I thought. That doesn't really change my opinion though.
Dr Jan Itor
Registered User
6 points in 10 games when Suter went down.
Obviously sample size is an issue, and I don't think he is a 49 point player in waiting, but I still think there is more there.
Obviously sample size is an issue, and I don't think he is a 49 point player in waiting, but I still think there is more there.
My biggest hang-up with the idea of Brodin's lurking offensive potential is that, in the offensive situations we have seen him in, he seems to have almost no offensive instincts. Watching Spurgeon or Dumba on the powerplay, I always get the feeling that they're waiting to make a pinch or position themselves for a shot or whatever; they're not worrying about what happens if the puck slips past them. But even on the powerplay Brodin seems to be thinking defense first, offense second.
That may be a flawed perception on my part and, even if it's not, maybe it's something that he can be coached out of. But after 400 games I'm wary excusing him for not taking advantage of the opportunities he does get. I'd certainly like him to prove me wrong.
That may be a flawed perception on my part and, even if it's not, maybe it's something that he can be coached out of. But after 400 games I'm wary excusing him for not taking advantage of the opportunities he does get. I'd certainly like him to prove me wrong.
I see him running the point and moving the puck, not so much as a shooter but as a setup man. Suter holds it and slows everything down, then puts his muffin on the net hoping for a re-direct. The umbrella setup requires speed in moving the puck to get the PKers out of position (Tampa/Caps setup, and find the weak-side goals.
I'd agree more, with Brodin being useless, if the Wild went with a net front guy with d-men popping of shots from both sides of the point (Weber/Josi from a few years ago). Brodin doesn't have the shot to pull off that setup (neither do Suter or Spurgeon for that matter).
This is where I'm at with Brodin as well. Obviously with better zone starts, more favorable matchups, and more pp time he would likely see his numbers go up a little bit. In terms of actual offensive zone IQ I have Brodin as the lowest IQ of the top 4 and honestly I like Seeler's game in the offensive zone more than Brodins (in a very limited viewing for Seeler). Dumba and Spurge love the puck on their stick in the o zone and they can make stuff happen individually. Suter is more reliant on moving pucks to the net but he has shown the ability to pinch low and be effective with the puck behind the net. Seeler I just love how everything is a slapshot at the net or deep... With Brodin it looks like he wants to always get the puck deep around the boards or he wants to walk the puck but even if he gets a lane to step up into the slot he is still looking to dish to one of the forwards hanging out in the circles. So I guess the good thing is Brodin is a hell of a defender as his scoring probably will never be as good as Suters.
