Player Discussion Jonas Brodin

Bazeek

Registered Lurker
Sponsor
Jul 26, 2011
17,883
11,253
Exiled in Madison
This was an excerpt from a recent Athletic article;

15. Offensive players usually get all the hype, so I wanted to shed some light on a defensive star this year: Minnesota’s Jonas Brodin. Based on RAPM (a fancy play-driving metric that uses regression to determine which players are responsible), Brodin has saved the Wild 69 shot attempts (1st), four expected goals (1st) and just over two actual goals (13th) above average. He’s one of just two defensemen to rank in the top 15 in all three categories, with the other being Boston’s Brandon Carlo. If there were to be an award for best defensive defenseman this year, those two would arguably be the most worthy.
It would be Brodin’s to lose though as he’s head and shoulders above the rest of the field in the chances his team surrenders while he’s on the ice. The Wild have the league’s second-lowest expected goals against per 60 behind only Boston and Brodin is a big part of that.
Teh barrrrrzzzzz:
LVEccrT.png


By eye-test or bar-test: he has been very good even by his own standards.
 

57special

Posting the right way since 2012.
Sep 5, 2012
48,038
19,750
MN
Every time I look at those charts my eyes glaze over, and I am reminded of the stats classes that were the bane of my existence. The absolute worst things are those concentration charts with amoeba like blobs on them.
 

Bazeek

Registered Lurker
Sponsor
Jul 26, 2011
17,883
11,253
Exiled in Madison
Every time I look at those charts my eyes glaze over, and I am reminded of the stats classes that were the bane of my existence. The absolute worst things are those concentration charts with amoeba like blobs on them.
I do think they're thrown around too often as a sort of substitute for discussion or analysis, but in this case it's just a visual representation of the numbers your blurb was referring to.

Edit: it's pretty common for me to go back, re-read one of my posts, and roll my eyes at it, but holy crap this one is bad
 
Last edited:

Bazeek

Registered Lurker
Sponsor
Jul 26, 2011
17,883
11,253
Exiled in Madison
Who would even be the best comparable for a UFA Brodin right now? Nate Schmidt ($6m x 6 years)? Muzzin also seems relevant, but he's older and we'll have to wait until the summer to see.

I wonder how feasible it is to keep Brodin on essentially the same deal Dumba's got. That's ~$27m spent on the top-4, or about 1/3 of an $83m - $85m salary cap. As long as he doesn't add yet another flipping NMC that doesn't seem bad. We'd have to move someone if we ended up with a forward that actually demanded big money, but we could cross that bridge when we came to it.
 

Dr Jan Itor

Registered User
Dec 10, 2009
45,284
20,222
MinneSNOWta
Who would even be the best comparable for a UFA Brodin right now? Nate Schmidt ($6m x 6 years)? Muzzin also seems relevant, but he's older and we'll have to wait until the summer to see.

I wonder how feasible it is to keep Brodin on essentially the same deal Dumba's got. That's ~$27m spent on the top-4, or about 1/3 of an $83m - $85m salary cap. As long as he doesn't add yet another flipping NMC that doesn't seem bad. We'd have to move someone if we ended up with a forward that actually demanded big money, but we could cross that bridge when we came to it.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic signed for 5 years x $4.25 million at the age of 26, contract to commence during the 2013-14 season.

The 2013-14 season had a cap ceiling of $64.3 million which would be a ~6.6% cap hit percentage.

That percentage at the current $81.5 million cap ceiling would be ~$5.4 million.

Start there and adjust?
 

Bazeek

Registered Lurker
Sponsor
Jul 26, 2011
17,883
11,253
Exiled in Madison
Marc-Edouard Vlasic signed for 5 years x $4.25 million at the age of 26, contract to commence during the 2013-14 season.

The 2013-14 season had a cap ceiling of $64.3 million which would be ~6.6% cap hit percentage.

That percentage at the current $81.5 million cap ceiling would be ~$5.4 million.
Hm.

I don't know, I'd still move him or Dumba in a heartbeat if it would solve our problem at center, but if we're not doing that I've got no problem with Brodin at $5.5m - $6m. It's when it starts creeping toward $6.5 or $7m that I think we need to pull the cord.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Nsjohnson

57special

Posting the right way since 2012.
Sep 5, 2012
48,038
19,750
MN
"solving our problem at Center" usually means getting a #1C that isn't in his 30's. That's a big ask. Someone like RyJo, even if available, is about the best we could expect, and he's overpaid.
 

Bazeek

Registered Lurker
Sponsor
Jul 26, 2011
17,883
11,253
Exiled in Madison
"solving our problem at Center" usually means getting a #1C that isn't in his 30's. That's a big ask. Someone like RyJo, even if available, is about the best we could expect, and he's overpaid.
There's definitely not going to be a perfect answer there, short of serendipity. Johansen's probably the most realistic option and he might not be an option at all.
 

57special

Posting the right way since 2012.
Sep 5, 2012
48,038
19,750
MN
I think that NSH might go for a RyJO for Brodin +sweetener(Rask:laugh:) if only to get rid of RyJo's cap hit. Don't think it's a great idea myself, unless they actually do take Rask.

At the end of the day, they are looking for some of the same things we are. The Granlund fizzle sure has to be driving Poile crazy, though.
 

Bazeek

Registered Lurker
Sponsor
Jul 26, 2011
17,883
11,253
Exiled in Madison
I think that NSH might go for a RyJO for Brodin +sweetener(Rask:laugh:) if only to get rid of RyJo's cap hit. Don't think it's a great idea myself, unless they actually do take Rask.

At the end of the day, they are looking for some of the same things we are. The Granlund fizzle sure has to be driving Poile crazy, though.
I've been wondering the same, though I haven't been cheeky enough to consider Rask as the sweetener. It'd kind of be coming full circle considering the rumors the last time Johansen was on the block, right down to Rask being included as the plus in Nino's place.

I don't know how much sense it makes for either team, but I do wonder how much Nashville would value that cap space/actual money. They seemed to be pretty motivated by it in the Subban trade... not that that's worked out amazingly for New Jersey, either.
 

57special

Posting the right way since 2012.
Sep 5, 2012
48,038
19,750
MN
Now they've got Duchene they might decide to move on from RyJo, but I don't know that Brodin is what they need. What they need is goal scoring, I think.
 

Nsjohnson

Hockey.
Jun 22, 2012
4,834
1,727
Miami
I watched Brodin last night.

Granted it was against the Wings.

But I just love this guy. I love almost every decision he makes, I love the way he skates, and I think, I really do- call me a foolish dreamer- that he can add more offense. He plays the game to easily, so to speak, at least his position, that at some point there has to be a next level for a player like him who will be able to play until he's 36 or later if he wants to barring an injury to his legs or back. His skating is effortless, his calculations are correct.

I want to keep Brodin because I think he can become even better and he has another 6-7 really good seasons in him. That is long enough to be apart of this team even with changes to it.

The only way I feel 'ok' parting with him logically is if the return seriously helps us at the C position, or if we get a top, top draft pick, which won't happen, and even then, is an unproven asset. #2 OA could 'bust' or at least not become a big time player.
 

57special

Posting the right way since 2012.
Sep 5, 2012
48,038
19,750
MN
Unfortunately , there is no button that says "1,000 Likes" attached to your post, or I would've pushed it.

Many, many years ago I played defense. Had some moves, but I was basically a defensive Dman. I wasn't great, but pretty good in my little town that had some good hockey going on for a stretch. Knew I wasn't great because I played with a Dman who played in the NHL for 14 years, the guy across the street was Bob Murray(ANA GM) who was also a damn good Dman, and there was another early 1st rounder down the street who might've been the most talented of the bunch, but was done in by a bad back after a few years in the NHL.

They were all very good NHL'ers, and a couple of them might end up with better careers than Brodin, but none of them could touch what he does in the Dzone. He makes zone exits look effortless, and his skating is wonderful to watch. He is a defensive Dman in the best sense of the word, and plays it with devotion, intellect, and courage. It can be a thankless job, especially in this world of Fantasy teams where offense is everything, but I delight in watching him, and will be very sad if they ever trade him.

I will be pissed off if they trade him for mediocrity, because he is not mediocre. He is a superb, rare, example of a type.

Still say he should play forward when he plays shinny in the summer. He needs to get more creative entering the Ozone, and when he wins the puck on a pinch.
 

Nsjohnson

Hockey.
Jun 22, 2012
4,834
1,727
Miami
Yeah man, I agree, Brodin is because of those facts underrated.

Actually, no, he's not as much underrated as he is under-appreciated outside of Minnesota, and even within.

I just think this is a guy who you try to keep unless he nets you the big fish at C. Brodin does what he does at (gasp I'm going to say it) an Elite level. At least to the eye test.

And his travels up the ice past both blue lines (hehe) this year seem the most confident I've ever seen him. He also is harder to take off the puck, which was his main problem when he was younger.

I think if he can just get the idea a little bit clearer of how to accomplish some offense- even if it's not in goals but in assisting of said goals- he'll do it. He has the legs and puck skills to pull it off. And he'll never lose his effortless defense in his own zone. His stick HAS to be one of the best in the NHL when playing a forward rushing into MN's zone too.

I know other GM's and scouts see it. That's why I think Guerin could get a bigger fish if Brodin was involved in a bigger deal with more pieces, but it doesn't mean it'll happen nor that I even want it to happen, selfishly. I trade Dumba, just not as his current stock value, every day of the week before Brodin.

Lastly, because no one has overtly said it, if Brodin put up even just say 45 points a year, he would be talked about as MN's premier and one of the NHL's premier keystone defenseman. He can skate with everyone, massive IQ, puts up points, wins battles with finesse.

I hope that day still comes.
 

SupremeNachos

Registered User
Dec 6, 2011
3,130
792
Minnesota
Yeah man, I agree, Brodin is because of those facts underrated.

Actually, no, he's not as much underrated as he is under-appreciated outside of Minnesota, and even within.

I just think this is a guy who you try to keep unless he nets you the big fish at C. Brodin does what he does at (gasp I'm going to say it) an Elite level. At least to the eye test.

And his travels up the ice past both blue lines (hehe) this year seem the most confident I've ever seen him. He also is harder to take off the puck, which was his main problem when he was younger.

I think if he can just get the idea a little bit clearer of how to accomplish some offense- even if it's not in goals but in assisting of said goals- he'll do it. He has the legs and puck skills to pull it off. And he'll never lose his effortless defense in his own zone. His stick HAS to be one of the best in the NHL when playing a forward rushing into MN's zone too.

I know other GM's and scouts see it. That's why I think Guerin could get a bigger fish if Brodin was involved in a bigger deal with more pieces, but it doesn't mean it'll happen nor that I even want it to happen, selfishly. I trade Dumba, just not as his current stock value, every day of the week before Brodin.

Lastly, because no one has overtly said it, if Brodin put up even just say 45 points a year, he would be talked about as MN's premier and one of the NHL's premier keystone defenseman. He can skate with everyone, massive IQ, puts up points, wins battles with finesse.

I hope that day still comes.
By fans maybe. Just like with Spurgeon, I think most competent GMs know how valuable guys like Brodin are.
 

16thOverallSaveUs

Danila Yurov Fan Club Executive Assistant
May 2, 2018
18,789
11,750
On pace for 47 points over 82 games. Leads the team in TOI/G, as well as points. Offense in the zone still isn’t great, but he transitions the puck so well and is one of the best defensive defenseman in the league. Very happy with the year he’s having. If he continues the whole year like this, he could take the reigns as our number one defenseman for the next 7 or so years.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Obvious Fabertism

Ad

Upcoming events

  • Inter Milan vs Torino
    Inter Milan vs Torino
    Wagers: 5
    Staked: $2,752.00
    Event closes
    • Updated:
  • Metz vs Lille
    Metz vs Lille
    Wagers: 3
    Staked: $354.00
    Event closes
    • Updated:
  • Cádiz vs Mallorca
    Cádiz vs Mallorca
    Wagers: 3
    Staked: $340.00
    Event closes
    • Updated:
  • Bologna vs Udinese
    Bologna vs Udinese
    Wagers: 4
    Staked: $365.00
    Event closes
    • Updated:
  • Clermont Foot vs Reims
    Clermont Foot vs Reims
    Wagers: 1
    Staked: $15.00
    Event closes
    • Updated:

Ad

Ad