How is four years of junior relevant? The focal point of my post wasn't actually about Tavares, I'm just saying Matthews is overrated. It's much easier to transition to the NHL when you've previously played in a men's league and are used to that physicality and just the general game against men than vs. boys. It's not too hard to improve on a 54-pt season, especially with the tools Tavares has, but it's much tougher to improve on 69 points and 40!! goals. Lastly, regarding strength, I was just talking about the physical side of the game, not being strong on the puck. However, I definitely see Matthews as a tier below Tavares, though he certainly has the potential to be Tavares-good.
There usually aren't too many signs, at least statistically, that a player will level out, especially when they are young. In fact, I wasn't trying to say he would level out either. As he begins to focus on his defensive game more, while his offensive skills will improve, his point totals won't as he'll be playing tougher in his own end as well.
A big red flag for me is always that prior league to entering the NHL is a men's league. I don't see how much better his shot can get either and expect him to be a 30-35 goal guy for the rest of his career with the occasional 40. It honestly seems like a lot of his skills have topped out when I watch him. Should've definitely put up more than 29 assists however, his playmaking skills and chemistry with Nylander are impressive.