Value of: John Tavares vs. Auston Matthews

[avatar1998*]

Loling at the people saying Matthews is stronger than Tavares. Tavares is a bull and ****ing injured Chara for christ sake.

Personally, I think Matthews is overrated. He came into this season older than your average recent draftee and played in a pro-league the year before. I see him being a consistent 70-pt player who might hit 80 once in his career.

 

[93LEAFS]

Loling at the people saying Matthews is stronger than Tavares. Tavares is a bull and ****ing injured Chara for christ sake.

Personally, I think Matthews is overrated. He came into this season older than your average recent draftee and played in a pro-league the year before. I see him being a consistent 70-pt player who might hit 80 once in his career.

Tavares came into the league with the same age advantage and 4 years of junior, yet dramatically improved on his rookie year. There is very little to indicate Matthews has maxed out. Matthews is also ridiculously strong on the puck and driving to high-danger scoring areas, so while he may not be stronger than Tavares, it is at a very comparable level.

 

[broc]

I think people are confusing "generational player" with "franchise player".

In no way is Matthews a generational player. He'd have to be better than Crosby, McDavid to be anything close to that. Now, he is young still.. so if he somehow becomes better than those 2 over his and their careers, so be it.

 

[avatar1998*]

Tavares came into the league with the same age advantage and 4 years of junior, yet dramatically improved on his rookie year. There is very little to indicate Matthews has maxed out. Matthews is also ridiculously strong on the puck and driving to high-danger scoring areas, so while he may not be stronger than Tavares, it is at a very comparable level.

How is four years of junior relevant? The focal point of my post wasn't actually about Tavares, I'm just saying Matthews is overrated. It's much easier to transition to the NHL when you've previously played in a men's league and are used to that physicality and just the general game against men than vs. boys. It's not too hard to improve on a 54-pt season, especially with the tools Tavares has, but it's much tougher to improve on 69 points and 40!! goals. Lastly, regarding strength, I was just talking about the physical side of the game, not being strong on the puck. However, I definitely see Matthews as a tier below Tavares, though he certainly has the potential to be Tavares-good.

There usually aren't too many signs, at least statistically, that a player will level out, especially when they are young. In fact, I wasn't trying to say he would level out either. As he begins to focus on his defensive game more, while his offensive skills will improve, his point totals won't as he'll be playing tougher in his own end as well.

A big red flag for me is always that prior league to entering the NHL is a men's league. I don't see how much better his shot can get either and expect him to be a 30-35 goal guy for the rest of his career with the occasional 40. It honestly seems like a lot of his skills have topped out when I watch him. Should've definitely put up more than 29 assists however, his playmaking skills and chemistry with Nylander are impressive.

 

[The Drop]

Matthews is worth more

 

[Ziggdiezan]

How is four years of junior relevant? The focal point of my post wasn't actually about Tavares, I'm just saying Matthews is overrated. It's much easier to transition to the NHL when you've previously played in a men's league and are used to that physicality and just the general game against men than vs. boys. It's not too hard to improve on a 54-pt season, especially with the tools Tavares has, but it's much tougher to improve on 69 points and 40!! goals. Lastly, regarding strength, I was just talking about the physical side of the game, not being strong on the puck. However, I definitely see Matthews as a tier below Tavares, though he certainly has the potential to be Tavares-good.

There usually aren't too many signs, at least statistically, that a player will level out, especially when they are young. In fact, I wasn't trying to say he would level out either. As he begins to focus on his defensive game more, while his offensive skills will improve, his point totals won't as he'll be playing tougher in his own end as well.

A big red flag for me is always that prior league to entering the NHL is a men's league. I don't see how much better his shot can get either and expect him to be a 30-35 goal guy for the rest of his career with the occasional 40. It honestly seems like a lot of his skills have topped out when I watch him. Should've definitely put up more than 29 assists however, his playmaking skills and chemistry with Nylander are impressive.

So much wrong with this post lol. You think because he played against men a year before his draft that should be held against him? Why Don't you think his shot will get better and he will regress from his rookie goal total for the rest of his career....

The bolder part makes no sense, Tavares is better because he had a worse rookie season and therefore had more room to grow? What...

Matthews is extremely good defensively for a rookie center. Sounds like you haven't watched him play much to be honest

 

[LordNeverLose]

So much wrong with this post lol. You think because he played against men a year before his draft that should be held against him? Why Don't you think his shot will get better and he will regress from his rookie goal total for the rest of his career....

The bolder part makes no sense, Tavares is better because he had a worse rookie season and therefore had more room to grow? What...

Matthews is extremely good defensively for a rookie center. Sounds like you haven't watched him play much to be honest

I don't think you got what he was saying, at least regarding the bolded

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I don't think you got what he was saying, at least regarding the bolded

I get he was saying that it is easier to JT to have a better season after his rookie season because he didn't put up great numbers. However the fact Matthews had such a good rookie year and that many players don't bottom out after their first season in the NHL should lead you to think Matthews will get better as he matures mentally and physically.

He doesn't need to focus on his defensive game. It is already good enough and will only get better. Don't think it will be detrimental to his offensive game at all

 

[LordNeverLose]

He doesn't need to focus on his defensive game. It is already good enough and will only get better. Don't think it will be detrimental to his offensive game at all

Very few forwards see significant improvements in their defensive games without their point totals falling a little i.e. Crosby or Tavares

 

[93LEAFS]

How is four years of junior relevant? The focal point of my post wasn't actually about Tavares, I'm just saying Matthews is overrated. It's much easier to transition to the NHL when you've previously played in a men's league and are used to that physicality and just the general game against men than vs. boys. It's not too hard to improve on a 54-pt season, especially with the tools Tavares has, but it's much tougher to improve on 69 points and 40!! goals. Lastly, regarding strength, I was just talking about the physical side of the game, not being strong on the puck. However, I definitely see Matthews as a tier below Tavares, though he certainly has the potential to be Tavares-good.

There usually aren't too many signs, at least statistically, that a player will level out, especially when they are young. In fact, I wasn't trying to say he would level out either. As he begins to focus on his defensive game more, while his offensive skills will improve, his point totals won't as he'll be playing tougher in his own end as well.

A big red flag for me is always that prior league to entering the NHL is a men's league. I don't see how much better his shot can get either and expect him to be a 30-35 goal guy for the rest of his career with the occasional 40. It honestly seems like a lot of his skills have topped out when I watch him. Should've definitely put up more than 29 assists however, his playmaking skills and chemistry with Nylander are impressive.

You do realize players coming from Men's leagues in Europe have tended to transition slower right? I mean, look at Kuznetsov and Tarasenko who came over at an older age. I actually don't think your claim has any statistical support. Especially when talking about 19-year-olds.

The reason, I think we are far from seeing Matthews statistical peak are 3 key factors. First, his oiSH% at 5v5 was below average for a top line center, primarily fueled by the fact Hyman shot less than 5% at 5v5, despite having many golden chances. Secondly, Matthews was top 3 among centers in primary points, and his numbers were driven down by a lack of secondary assists, primarily at 5v5. These tend to be erratic from year to year, and offer much less predictive value than goals and first assists. Finally, Matthews didn't get 1st line center ice time. He will probably get between 2 to 3 more minutes a game as he grows, which will naturally give him more opportunity. Matthews has the skills to get significantly more assists and get more goals. He led the league in expected goals this year due to the chances he generated. Hyman will either start converting at a rate better than 4.5% at 5v5 or Babs will eventually replace him.

There are usually a bunch of signs statistically if a guy has performed better than he should of. They were notably present in MacKinnon, RNH and Yakupov's case.

 

[thadd]

While I'm not going to say that Matthews' rookie season was a fluke, to compare him to an established elite center at this point is pretty silly.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Very few forwards see significant improvements in their defensive games without their point totals falling a little i.e. Crosby or Tavares

I don't think he needs significant improvement in his defensive Game, that's what I'm trying to say. Also what the above poster said (93leafs).He was playing on an all rookie line with a player who was brutally wasteful offensively. I think you will see improvement in his offensive game as he gets older

 

[Ziggdiezan]

While I'm not going to say that Matthews' rookie season was a fluke, to compare him to an established elite center at this point is pretty silly.

The established elite center scored less points and like 12 less goals than a 19 year old rookie. The rookie also scored more goals in a season than JT has ever. Lots of potential after a season like that.
Wouldn't say to compare them is silly, especially as it is a value thread NOT who is better now.

 

[Rebuilt]

I dunno, but how many 19 year old centers score 4 goals in their 1st NHL game, score 40 goals on a previously sad sack team , win the Calder trophy.............all to go on to be anything BUT an superstar?

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Loling at the people saying Matthews is stronger than Tavares. Tavares is a bull and ****ing injured Chara for christ sake.

Personally, I think Matthews is overrated. He came into this season older than your average recent draftee and played in a pro-league the year before. I see him being a consistent 70-pt player who might hit 80 once in his career.

Wtf does him being older have to do with anything? He's X amount of months older soooo the goal totals don't mean as much. He played in a pro league before sooo the totals don't mean as much. What a ridiculous post. This is why HF will never be taken seriously. Success is somehow detrimental.

 

[libertarian]

I feel sorry for Matthews, the expectation some Leafs fans have for him leave him in a position where if he scores more points (lets say 73 but only gets 35 goals) will be seen as a disappointing season by some. Heaven forbid if he actually underperforms his rookie season next year all hell will break lose. Or worst yet Laine out performs him.

 

[avatar1998*]

Wrote a whole essay responding to you guys, Leafsfan and Ziggie, but I got logged out and lost my post. Even with Marleau on his line, I don't see Matthews hitting 75 points this season. We can make an avatar bet out of this if you'd like and I can drop it to 70 if that makes you more comfortable as well. I have a 50/50 chance at winning the 70pt bet imo and I've always been a gambler. Highly doubt he hits 75, like 90% chance he doesn't hit that. Or/and we can make a goal total bet; I'm confidently saying he won't hit 40 goals next season.

Wtf does him being older have to do with anything? He's X amount of months older soooo the goal totals don't mean as much. He played in a pro league before sooo the totals don't mean as much. What a ridiculous post. This is why HF will never be taken seriously. Success is somehow detrimental.

This is literally so wrong If anyone under 23 has a breakout season, their value skyrockets on this board. I know if this wasn't true it would suit your argument, but why lie for a meaningless jab in a thread that should've been closed six posts in? Why meaninglessly spoil your own reputation for no reason? This is actually baffling, especially given how blatant of a lie this is. Just... well done Not only was this overly aggressive, but it's just plain and purposeful dishonesty. Utterly shameless.

Ignoring your little... phony frustration/fake tantrum at the end there, I think you're missing the point in the rest of your post. This guy had a lifetime of experience on NA ice and also had a season of experience against men. I don't think any top-10 talent in the past decade has had this kind of advantage transitioning to the NHL. Often, one of the biggest barriers for young players to overcome is adapting to the far more physical nature of the NHL. It's a big jump to go from playing against boys to playing against men. If you guys consider yourselves informed posters, I have no idea how you've missed the fact that adapting to a physical men's game in the NHL is one of the reasons good talent often stays around in the CHL longer than necessary.

I feel sorry for Matthews, the expectation some Leafs fans have for him leave him in a position where if he scores more points (lets say 73 but only gets 35 goals) will be seen as a disappointing season by some. Heaven forbid if he actually underperforms his rookie season next year all hell will break lose. Or worst yet Laine out performs him.

I know right, it wasn't like I was insulting his mother by saying he'll be a 65-75 point player. Of course there will be an excuse and I have no doubt it'll be one that will likely contradict the metrics that they used to put other players down.

 

[Liferleafer]

I feel sorry for Matthews, the expectation some Leafs fans have for him leave him in a position where if he scores more points (lets say 73 but only gets 35 goals) will be seen as a disappointing season by some. Heaven forbid if he actually underperforms his rookie season next year all hell will break lose. Or worst yet Laine out performs him.

Yes, we will be pissed if Matthews tops 70 points....i mean we've been contending for so long that at this point if he can't hit 150 points and win a cup this year it will be a massive failure in our minds....

Get ****ing real.. .

 

[Pyrophorus]

Its JUST the youth.

If AM34 can score over 38 again, its another wrinkle.
If JT can have a season high in goals, another totally different wrinkle.

 

[shortfuze]

I think people are confusing "generational player" with "franchise player".

In no way is Matthews a generational player. He'd have to be better than Crosby, McDavid to be anything close to that. Now, he is young still.. so if he somehow becomes better than those 2 over his and their careers, so be it.

Are you crazy? He could absolutely be a generational player. He COULD tear up the league for the rest of his career. Also. Why does he have to be better then Crosby/McDavid to be a generational player? That's like saying Lemieux will only be a generational player if he is better then Gretzky.

Also. By you saying he would have to be better then Crosby/McDavid to be anything close to a generational player. So I'm guessing that Crosby/McDavid aren't generational players yet then?

 

[tony d]

Right now I'd still take Tavares over Matthews. Matthews is good but he's becoming slightly over rated.

 

[Hunter368]

JT is the much better player now, but AM who is much younger & on his ELC is more valuable. AM stands a good chance to become a 80-90 pt per year guy who can play in all three zones. But in a best of 7 game series right now, JT is much better.

 

[Kamiccolo]

I feel sorry for Matthews, the expectation some Leafs fans have for him leave him in a position where if he scores more points (lets say 73 but only gets 35 goals) will be seen as a disappointing season by some. Heaven forbid if he actually underperforms his rookie season next year all hell will break lose. Or worst yet Laine out performs him.

Hell no, we'd be fine with it, it would be "Neutral" fans dumping on him claiming Leaf fans over rated him and this and that. Saying he is the new Toews, and getting hate on.

Just like they did with Kessel on here. If he left for Arizona all that would change though..

Right now I'd still take Tavares over Matthews. Matthews is good but he's becoming slightly over rated.

There is not a shred of reputable evidence to suggest this. He is a Franchise center and was better than Tavares last year. You can tell the people who watched him and those who did not, as I personally have never seen a Leaf as good as Matthews is.

Plus actual stats AND advanced stats back it up.

- He was a top 10 C in GAR which is increasingly being seen as the "next advanced stats" breakthrough. Considering some players ahead of him split time on wing, he was even closer.

- 4 goals away from winning the rocket as a rookie, finished 2nd in goals

- Elite possession player and elite defensive stats including being among the top players in take aways in the NHL.

Yet on here he has peaked. He is 7 months older than Laine, who is seen as having untapped potential. He is 11 months younger than Eichel who many see breaking out and establishing himself as a top 5C.

Yet on HFboards, Matthews has apparently peaked.

 

[TML1967]

JT is the much better player now, but AM who is much younger & on his ELC is more valuable. AM stands a good chance to become a 80-90 pt per year guy who can play in all three zones. But in a best of 7 game series right now, JT is much better.

Rookie seasons
Matthews:69p Tavares: 54

Last year:
Matthews: 69p Tavares 660 (70 point pace)

I wouldnt say Tavares was that much better this last year. Faceoff dot was his biggest advantage, but Matthews was a much better skater.

 

[Liferleafer]

Right now I'd still take Tavares over Matthews. Matthews is good but he's becoming slightly over rated.

Quick question, how do you over rate a 19 year old that scores 4 goals in his 1st ever game, and scores 40 in his rookie year?