true it's rare to have a LeClair type where he doubles his production at age 26. Could Armia go from 29 pts to say around 5 pts in 2 years, clearly a lot would need to go right for him in terms of linemates, usage, team playing better/scoring more, staying healthy for all 82 games, etc... I don't even know him that well to see if he can even score 30 pts with us just that I see a skilled player that did the usual 3 years in the AHL (to which I'm a big fan of) then would have had a full year in the NHL at 23 but missed a big chunk to injury. So now you have a guy that plays his first full season at 24 and it's only really a year later then expected unless you are either really good or rushed.
Look at Pleks, did his 3 years in the AHL, at 24 he plays his 2nd full season and puts up 47 pts then breaks out with 69 pts at 25. Not saying this will happen with Armia cause I'm not sure he will get 2nd line ice time and wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being saddled with Pleks as his center which is going to put a major damper on his production if that's the case imo.
I tend to agree with you here too.
Production v age studies are all nice and interesting, but the studies I've seen I couldn't find much in methodology or confounding variables.
As an example, we can for sure say that, from the data,
forwards as a group peak between 22 and 25 and remain at 90% of their peak until their 30s.
Great... but what about those who don't ? Is age the
only reason why ? I'm asking this because with time, injuries also take their toll. It's actually a pretty huge confounder: what impact do injuries have and which are most significant ? And if you control for the injuries, all included as well as only those with most impact, does the data remain the same ?
Then, you have different categories of players: 2nd rounders, late rounders, college players, european league players, 1st rounders, 1-2nd OA. We know the elite get better faster and remain so longer, but what of the other ones ? How do those who choose a different, longer path in the minors perform ? And does draft position affect it ?
We don't have much info there and we have less regarding if the changes in the last few years have skewed the numbers to the left since we keep saying the players are more ready younger... but what's the profile of those who aren't ?
That's why I tend not to take those numbers at face value on an individual basis, since we haven't tested their actual validity there. We still remain with our "clinical" opinion, meaning even with this data, I can't really say Armia's peaked. If anything, there's enough supporting (from advanced stats and usage, to european league production to improved yearly play) to reasonnably think that he hasn't as opposed to, say, an Andrew Shaw 2 years ago.
