Player Discussion: Joel Armia - Part II

[SCP Guy]

I too have gone from skeptical to optimistic about his future. I see a sound 20/20 player that plays between the 2nd and 3rd line within 24 months.

I would take that in a heart beat

 

[KingBogo]

So you see top 6 minutes and powerplay time in his future? I don't see that coming any time soon, so I'm not confident about thise numbers.

I'd be happy with a 20-30 point third liner who out-scores the opposition.

I think that's what he will be next season. It will be interesting to see if he can push past that as his career develops. I think he has shown he will be be a future piece and worth a second contract.

 

[ps241]

I will reserve judgment on Joel's raw scoring numbers for now. At worst he is a useful to good bottom 6 NHL player and that was the first hurdle to get over. He is a shy kid in a new org who is in his first 25 games in the NHL where quite a bit of his time has been spent with Thorburn level talent. How was Schiefele doing in his first 25 games? How would that same stretch for Mark have gone with Joel's usage? I expect his scoring numbers per 60 to more than double in the next two seasons.

I was much hirer on Armia after the trade than most and not much has changed for me at least (I was much lower on Lemieux than most on our board). If we surround him with like talent I expect him to be a consistent 25-30 point 3rd line player as his floor. His raw talent is just too good.


Ok I guess my primary point is this. Too often in the 2.0 era when we have to take a 4th line player and move him up to the 3rd line it feels like they drag the line down to 4th line level. Repeat that same point for guys from the 3rd line moving into the top 6 (Burmi and Lowry). They don't move up the line moves down to join them. I feel like Joel is the opposite when he has had a chance to move up his skills are good enough to not drag down the better players. (Ok I am not sure if that makes any sense).

For a cup of coffee last season we had a functional bottom six and I don't really think Jets fans know what that is like so we devalue what it means to be a good 3rd line player. I am hoping Joel and a couple of other guys can change that next season. A real 3rd line with assets that can play up into the top 6 and not drag the top six into the bottom six.

Connor Petan Armia?

 

[FinJetster]

So if he tops out where that guy we traded for him topped out.

I think Armia will turn into a better hockey player than Kane within 1 - 2 years. There I said it

I've actually been pretty sure about it - if he's given a chance - right from the beginning. Not (just) because I'm a Finn, but because I never thought Kane was that great. Kane's mid six at best, but I can see Joel hitting top six easily.

 

[SCP Guy]

Wow really surprised some here think Armia will be equal to or better than Kane....I just don't see it but I hope you are right ...... No doubt to me he sees the game at a higher level then Kane...but still has a big gap to close.

When Kane was here he was a 3rd line 20 goal guy with 0 pp time....he did little to help his line mates produce any offence so if Armia can hit high teens in goals and add assists then that would be gold!

 

[jesui]

I still think his ceiling is somewhere near Corey Perry's.
But imo to get there, he still needs to improve his intensity/explosiveness, and that killer instinct in front of the net, what he has showed especially in finland.
And he needs shoot the puck more. He has an excellent shot but he needs to get it in shape.
I think that because he has done alot of work and improved his defensive game, it has hurted his offensive game.
Maybe he finds the balance in the next 1-2years.

Realistically i think he ends up as decent 30-50pnt middle sixer.

 

[KingBogo]

I still think his ceiling is somewhere near Corey Perry's.
But imo to get there, he still needs to improve his intensity/explosiveness, and that killer instinct in front of the net, what he has showed especially in finland.
And he needs shoot the puck more. He has an excellent shot but he needs to get it in shape.
I think that because he has done alot of work and improved his defensive game, it has hurted his offensive game.
Maybe he finds the balance in the next 1-2years.

Realistically i think he ends up as decent 30-50pnt middle sixer.

If Armia spends his career in Winnipeg doing that I will be very happy. I real nice add on the big trade.

 

[jesui]

If Armia spends his career in Winnipeg doing that I will be very happy. I real nice add on the big trade.

Yeah, i'd be happy for that too. Ofc there's still a possibility, that he busts and ends up to europe, but as of now, he looks to be improving.

 

[KingBogo]

Yeah, i'd be happy for that too. Ofc there's still a possibility, that he busts and ends up to europe, but as of now, he looks to be improving.

I think he has done enough to be offered a second contract at the very least. I'm wondering if the Jets will need to make it a 1-way to keep him from looking for opportunities in Europe?

 

[jesui]

I think he has done enough to be offered a second contract at the very least. I'm wondering if the Jets will need to make it a 1-way to keep him from looking for opportunities in Europe?

I've heard rumors that the finnish KHL team jokerit would be interested to get him if he doesn't get a contract. But i would think that if he get's contract, he will stay in winnipeg no matter if it's 1- or 2-way.

He's young and has many years to make many in europe if things doesn't workout in NA.

 

[KingBogo]

I've heard rumors that the finnish KHL team jokerit would be interested to get him if he doesn't get a contract. But i would think that if he get's contract, he will stay in winnipeg no matter if it's 1- or 2-way.

He's young and has many years to make many in europe if things doesn't workout in NA.

At this point it probably doesn't matter if it is a 2-way since he is unlikely to clear waivers once he is off his ELC. Too much potential for someone else not to take a chance on him. I just hope he solidifies his position on the team down the stretch. Playing with Ladd and Scheifele is a real nice spot to start making that happen.

 

[gbill2004*]

So you see top 6 minutes and powerplay time in his future? I don't see that coming any time soon, so I'm not confident about thise numbers.

I'd be happy with a 20-30 point third liner who out-scores the opposition.

Yes I do. The eye test says he has the talent and work ethic to be a consistent top 6 forward. Might take a couple years for him to develop (he's been slow at developing so far), but I think he gets there.

 

[gbill2004*]

It will be interesting to see what kind of second contract he gets, since there is very little to base it on. Maybe a 1-2 year bridge contract like Burmi got, around $1.5-2 million per year?

 

[csk]

My hope is that Armia stays in the bottom 6. Not because I don't want him to be better than that, but because I want to have a stronger lineup. All these projections I see with Armia in the top six seem to be either wild expectations about what he will become OR wildly underestimating our other prospects. At least, IMO

 

[truck]

Wow really surprised some here think Armia will be equal to or better than Kane....I just don't see it but I hope you are right ...... No doubt to me he sees the game at a higher level then Kane...but still has a big gap to close.

When Kane was here he was a 3rd line 20 goal guy with 0 pp time....he did little to help his line mates produce any offence so if Armia can hit high teens in goals and add assists then that would be gold!

Aye. It requires a pretty ridiculous leap and a pile of assumptions to say he'll pass Kane. Evander remains very good second line forward who can carry the possession for a line. He's second in ice time time per game among Buffalo forwards - first at 5 on 5. He's also tied for first in 5 on 5 goal scoring and a force on the PK.

I would love to see Armia get there, but that would be a big step forward. Kane had a 30 goal season under his belt at Armia's age.

 

[ps241]

Aye. It requires a pretty ridiculous leap and a pile of assumptions to say he'll pass Kane. Evander remains very good second line forward who can carry the possession for a line. He's second in ice time time per game among Buffalo forwards - first at 5 on 5. He's also tied for first in 5 on 5 goal scoring and a force on the PK.

I would love to see Armia get there, but that would be a big step forward. Kane had a 30 goal season under his belt at Armia's age.

Yea Evander has his faults but we can't really include him in the same conversation as Armia at this point.

 

[truck]

My hope is that Armia stays in the bottom 6. Not because I don't want him to be better than that, but because I want to have a stronger lineup. All these projections I see with Armia in the top six seem to be either wild expectations about what he will become OR wildly underestimating our other prospects. At least, IMO

I agree. That isn't to say Armia couldn't take a big step forward, but Wheeler isn't going anywhere (Little and Perreault may not either) and he isn't on the level of Scheifele or Ehlers. Connor and Petan are further away, but they have a pile if upside too - never mind Roslovic or the potential for another top pick.

If the team is going to have any sort of success, it'll have players like Lowry on the 4th line and middling scorers on the third. Maybe Armia can be a 50 point guy, but comparable players usually don't on average.

 

[Stavros]

I would love to see Armia get there, but that would be a big step forward. Kane had a 30 goal season under his belt at Armia's age.

Olli Jokinen and Mikko Koivu were draft+6 (Armia is D+5) before doing anything worth mentioning in NHL, its not uncommon for big Finnish forwards to break out a bit later. He was first rounder because of his offensive abilities. I dont think its outrageous to believe that he will be top6 player, not saying that he will be but he could.

 

[ps241]

Olli Jokinen and Mikko Koivu were draft+6 (Armia is D+5) before doing anything worth mentioning in NHL, its not uncommon for big Finnish forwards to break out a bit later. He was first rounder because of his offensive abilities. I dont think its outrageous to believe that he will be top6 player, not saying that he will be but he could.

Everyone on this thread wants you to be right.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

People have commented on Perreault's less than stellar outings. He's usually very strong, but he hasn't been free from criticism, nor free from having the off poor game.

I have a lot of patience for rooks, but there's nothing wrong with pointing out areas that someone like Armia can improve on.

I will re-iterate: I like what I'm seeing from his game. Think he's definitely on the road to becoming a 25-35pt 3rd line player, with 2nd line upside. That would be a very, very useful player as part of that trade.

That sounds about right to me. Some people are getting a little carried away predicting 50 and even 70 points. Not that I'd mind but the guy has a career total of 4 points. His AHL career is 126 games and he scored a total of 68 pts. A 30 pt 3RW would be great.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I still think his ceiling is somewhere near Corey Perry's.
But imo to get there, he still needs to improve his intensity/explosiveness, and that killer instinct in front of the net, what he has showed especially in finland.
And he needs shoot the puck more. He has an excellent shot but he needs to get it in shape.
I think that because he has done alot of work and improved his defensive game, it has hurted his offensive game.
Maybe he finds the balance in the next 1-2years.

Realistically i think he ends up as decent 30-50pnt middle sixer.

I know you have had very high hopes for Joel but that is just way outside of realistic bounds. When Corey Perry was the same age as Armia (same birth month so really the same age) he played 78 games and scored 72 pts. That was his 4th NHL season and brought his career scoring total to 195 pts. Armia will have been quite successful if he scores 195 pts to the end of his career. He is nearly 23 years old. His development is just about over. All that is missing is time with better linemates and a little puck luck.

Allowing for some time lost to injury that will take him about 8 years of scoring at an avg. of 32 pts/82 games. He will be 31 at the end of that season and probably done with a career of ~ 500-550 games, 195 pts and about 15-20 million in career earnings. I think most of us here would be very pleased if we can look back on that return from the Kane trade 9 years later.

 

[Winnipeg Jets]

I hope he develops into a guy like Frolik who can play up and down a lineup. Guys like that are very valuable when injuries hit. PoMo also likes his defensive game and I think he's been on the PK a few times as well so there is some versatility in his game already.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Olli Jokinen and Mikko Koivu were draft+6 (Armia is D+5) before doing anything worth mentioning in NHL, its not uncommon for big Finnish forwards to break out a bit later. He was first rounder because of his offensive abilities. I dont think its outrageous to believe that he will be top6 player, not saying that he will be but he could.

When Olli was Armia's age he played his 3rd full NHL season and got his career scoring total to 58 pts. Koivu played his first NHL season and scored 21 pts in 64 games, .32 ppg. If Armia plays another 25 games this year then .32 would be 16 pts for the year. If Armia can score another 12 by then to give 16 total I'll accept your point quite happily. In his 2nd year Koivu played 82 games and scored 54 points. I'd be very happy to get that from Armia next year.

 

[Daximus]

I hope he develops into a guy like Frolik who can play up and down a lineup. Guys like that are very valuable when injuries hit. PoMo also likes his defensive game and I think he's been on the PK a few times as well so there is some versatility in his game already.

That would be excellent! We wouldn't miss Frolik a bit! Plus he's younger and can be had for much cheaper.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Realistically i think he ends up as decent 30-50pnt middle sixer.

If we get rid of Ladd he needs to be and so does Copp or Lowry to make up the lost points regardless of position.
Hope you are correct but I don't see it .