Player Discussion Jesperi Kotkaniemi - AHL edition

[LaP]

being taken 3rd doesn’t make you a legit #3 pick. I think Craig Button does the habs picks.

No it doesn't. But our needs right now is legit 3rd overall pick not depth. We have plenty of depth. We have 6 players able to do 50 points already in Tatar, Gallagher, Danault, Suzuki, Domi, Drouin. We need elite players. Guys able to do ~60+ points every years even when things are not going their way and do close to 80 when things are going their way. And this kind of players usually play in the NHL at 20 at least for half the year. Again there's exceptions but you should not bet on exceptions.

 

[Andrei79]

Most elite players play in the NHL at 20 and are able to be productive. Let's look at the top 20 scorers at 20 years old.

Draistl : In the NHL 51 points.
Pasternak : In the NHL 70 points.
McJesus : In the NHL 108 points
MacKinnon : In the NHL 52 points.
Panarin : In the KHL 31 points in 50 games (which is not bad for a 20 years old he was traded toward the end of the season and was still the 2nd scorer of his first team at the end of the season).
Eichel : In the NHL 57 points
Marchand : Not in the NHL one of the few elite late bloomer exceptions but there's an exception to all rule.
Kucherov : In the NHL 18 points in 52 games (not a great season but still played in the NHL and did 65 points the next season as a 21 years old)
Kane : In the NHL 70 points
Matthews : In the NHL 63 points
Huberdeau : In the NHL 28 points in 69 games (did 54 points the next season as a 21 years old)
Carlson : In the NHL 37 points (he's a dman for god sake and still did 37 points as a 20 years old)
Stamkos : In the NHL 91 points
Connor : Not in the NHL (did 57 points the season after as a 21 years old).
Scheifele : In the NHL 34 points in 63 games (did 49 points the season after as a 21 years old)
Marner : In the NHL 69 points
Malkin : In the NHL 85 points
Ovechkin : In the NHL 106 points
Pettersson : In the NHL 66 points
JT Miller : Not in the NHL (not really an elite player either in my book probably a career year)

So out of the top 20 scorers in the NHL right now 12 players were in the NHL at 20 and did over 50 points so 60% of them. One of the 8 players who did not meet that target is a dman and he did 36 points which is very good for a dman at that age and i would say an equivalent to 50 points. So i would lean toward saying 13 instead of 12.

Only 4 players were not in the NHL (played under 40 games) at 20 years old and one of them (Miller) is not what i would consider an elite player he's having a career year and another one was in the KHL which is a better league than the AHL in my book. I would not call not playing in the NHL at 20 years old for an elite player an exception but it's definitely not the rule. Also most of the players who did not meet the 50 points target as 20 years old did it the next season as 21 years old so not doing 50 points as a 21 years old for an elite player definitely lean toward being an exception.

It's not past midnight for JK but it's definitely slowly getting there if he can't play in the NHL next season and be somewhat productive. If he spend a full year in the AHL next season he'll already be out of the norm. If he doesn't do 50 points the season after as a 21 years old after spending a full year in the AHL then it will not look good at all as he'll fall in the exception territory and no team should bet on an exception to happen.

I don't think you should expect a top 20 scorer. That's not what he is and I don't think that was his upside even watching him during his D-year. I don't think many, if any, prospect showed they could be that after Svechnikov in 2018. Maybe Kravtsov or Zadina ? An outside chance of Tkachuk or Wahlstrom ? Seems like Hughes could end up being one who could go ppg or close.

I don't think he's Draisaitl or Barkov either, both of them were much more skilled. Draisaitl had dominant skills and amazing hockey IQ in the dub, though his skating was atrocious.

I think Scheifele and Johansen are guys he compares more to. Scheifele's one of the most dedicated players off the ice, so I don't think he'll quite reach that level, but those are guys without the stand out skills of players like Drai/Barkov, who played both ends of the ice and took more time to reach their upside as they had quite a bit of things to work on. Scheifele was even weaker than KK and an awful skater. Johansen had a lot of trouble translating his game until his stint in the AHL.

Is that worth a 3rd overall pick ? Well, its the debate I had in 2018 when I wanted KK for our pick. There's a historic premium for the position. What's the value 60-70 point (at the time, before scoring went up in 18-19) two-way center, with a high motor, who's physical (against juniors) and is 6'3" ? If you project he's going to flirt with 70 points as a center and shutdown lines, and project the guys around him shouldn't be superstars, though they might have that one discernible skill (Hughes, Tkachuk, Boqvist, Zadina), then how do you not be consequent and rank him higher ?

Of course, the problem here is adding all the confounders that come into play, including a guy like Hughes actually becoming that superstar.

 

[Scriptor]

Most elite players play in the NHL at 20 and are able to be productive. Let's look at the top 20 scorers at 20 years old.

Draistl : In the NHL 51 points.
Pasternak : In the NHL 70 points.
McJesus : In the NHL 108 points
MacKinnon : In the NHL 52 points.
Panarin : In the KHL 31 points in 50 games (which is not bad for a 20 years old he was traded toward the end of the season and was still the 2nd scorer of his first team at the end of the season).
Eichel : In the NHL 57 points
Marchand : Not in the NHL one of the few elite late bloomer exceptions but there's an exception to all rule.
Kucherov : In the NHL 18 points in 52 games (not a great season but still played in the NHL and did 65 points the next season as a 21 years old)
Kane : In the NHL 70 points
Matthews : In the NHL 63 points
Huberdeau : In the NHL 28 points in 69 games (did 54 points the next season as a 21 years old)
Carlson : In the NHL 37 points (he's a dman for god sake and still did 37 points as a 20 years old)
Stamkos : In the NHL 91 points
Connor : Not in the NHL (did 57 points the season after as a 21 years old).
Scheifele : In the NHL 34 points in 63 games (did 49 points the season after as a 21 years old)
Marner : In the NHL 69 points
Malkin : In the NHL 85 points
Ovechkin : In the NHL 106 points
Pettersson : In the NHL 66 points
JT Miller : Not in the NHL (not really an elite player either in my book probably a career year)

So out of the top 20 scorers in the NHL right now 12 players were in the NHL at 20 and did over 50 points so 60% of them. One of the 8 players who did not meet that target is a dman and he did 36 points which is very good for a dman at that age and i would say an equivalent to 50 points. So i would lean toward saying 13 instead of 12.

Only 4 players were not in the NHL (played under 40 games) at 20 years old and one of them (Miller) is not what i would consider an elite player he's having a career year and another one was in the KHL which is a better league than the AHL in my book. I would not call not playing in the NHL at 20 years old for an elite player an exception but it's definitely not the rule. Also most of the players who did not meet the 50 points target as 20 years old did it the next season as 21 years old so not doing 50 points as a 21 years old for an elite player definitely lean toward being an exception.

It's not past midnight for JK but it's definitely slowly getting there if he can't play in the NHL next season and be somewhat productive. If he spend a full year in the AHL next season he'll already be out of the norm. If he doesn't do 50 points the season after as a 21 years old after spending a full year in the AHL then it will not look good at all as he'll fall in the exception territory and no team should bet on an exception to happen.

I'd say his first season -- at 18 -- was easily somewhat productive. Panic buttons must surround you on all sides. 2nd season being a step back is far from unusual, even for eventual dominant players. For KK, as he keeps filling into his lanky frame, at 19 to boot, a sophomore slump is no alarming trait. How he bounces back next year will be more important for the kid than this year was.

Hey, Bowman said he'd be a #1C at 22. Still three years left before the foundation is all cracked. The important thing is that the kid keeps learning and improves.

 

[LaP]

I'd say his first season -- at 18 -- was easily somewhat productive. Panic buttons must surround you on all sides. 2nd season being a step back is far from unusual, even for eventual dominant players. For KK, as he keeps filling into his lanky frame, at 19 to boot, a sophomore slump is no alarming trait. How he bounces back next year will be more important for the kid than this year was.

Hey, Bowman said he'd be a #1C at 22. Still three years left before the foundation is all cracked. The important thing is that the kid keeps learning and improves.

Hum i was specifically talking about him being in the AHL for the whole next season. That's what i replied too.

 

[Arnold Schwarzaneger]

He's had quite a few chances despite not scoring.

He will score goals. But i see him as a playmaker, we need to giver him pure sniper/goal scorers. He’s gonna be a beauty. Draft more goal scorers now. We have enough playmakers.

 

[Habs]

No it doesn't. But our needs right now is legit 3rd overall pick not depth. We have plenty of depth. We have 6 players able to do 50 points already in Tatar, Gallagher, Danault, Suzuki, Domi, Drouin. We need elite players. Guys able to do ~60+ points every years even when things are not going their way and do close to 80 when things are going their way. And this kind of players usually play in the NHL at 20 at least for half the year. Again there's exceptions but you should not bet on exceptions.

Tatar and Gallagher are the only proven 50 pt guys so far. Domi has a long ways to go after his fluke year, he could get 3 pts in his next 20 to finish the year.

 

[OnTheRun]

Can someone clarify that KK can only spend this season in the AHL. If he's playing there next year he has to clear waivers?

Waivers exempt until 2021-22.

 

[montreal]

Waivers exempt until 2021-22.

only as long as he doesn't appear in more then 44 games.

 

[Andrei79]

I'm seeing some of the bad 5 on 5 habits and sluggishness creep back into his game. His play on the PP has been fantastic, but he has to learn how to get more puck touches and be more involved in the 5 on 5 play.

CJ's, or any NHL coach for that matter, going to bench him after 2 shifts if he's not reading the play when the puck gets in his territory and if he's not winning the 1 on 1 battles once he correctly reads those plays without the puck.

 

[azcanuck]

Tatar and Gallagher are the only proven 50 pt guys so far. Domi has a long ways to go after his fluke year, he could get 3 pts in his next 20 to finish the year.

Can you imagine an NHL team hanging it's hat on two 50 POINT players.? LOL.

 

[Toene]

Unfortunately a lot of third overall picks have faults.

From 2001-2018 here are the third overall picks, Svitov, Bouwmeester, Horton, Barker, Jack Johnson, Toews, Turris, Bogosian, Duchene, Gudbranson, Huberdeau, Galchenyuk, Drouin, Draisaitl, Strome, Dubois, Heiskanen, Kotkaniemi

The third overall pick hasn’t been a sure thing. I would argue, currently 5/18 picks were great picks (Toews, Huberdeau, Draisaitl, Dubois, Heiskanen).

Bouwmeester, Horton and Duchene were/are very good players too.

 

[Habs]

Can you imagine an NHL team hanging it's hat on two 50 POINT players.? LOL.

they have been doing it since about 1998

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

they have been doing it since about 1998

Only hit 70+ points 5 times over the past 20 years. One of those seasons we hit 80+

That is just... sad.

This franchise has been so mediocre for so long. Forget the 70s Habs, I mean the 80s and 90s teams kick the ever living crap out of what we've had the past two decades. It's so pathetic.

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

Zero 40 goal seasons.

 

[Arnold Schwarzaneger]

Only hit 70+ points 5 times over the past 20 years. One of those seasons we hit 80+

That is just... sad.

This franchise has been so mediocre for so long. Forget the 70s Habs, I mean the 80s and 90s teams kick the ever living crap out of what we've had the past two decades. It's so pathetic.

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

Zero 40 goal seasons.

 

[Habs]

Only hit 70+ points 5 times over the past 20 years. One of those seasons we hit 80+

That is just... sad.

This franchise has been so mediocre for so long. Forget the 70s Habs, I mean the 80s and 90s teams kick the ever living crap out of what we've had the past two decades. It's so pathetic.

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

Zero 40 goal seasons.

someone should tweet those stats next time molson brags about how proud he is of his team.

 

[hvac412]

 

[peate]

Can you imagine an NHL team hanging it's hat on two 50 POINT players.? LOL.

In their mind, that's a 100 point player combined.

 

[FF de Mars]

I wish he would have played at the WJC and in Europe, but playing in the AHL is nothing wrong. Maybe set him in Europe next year though, looks like another tank year anyway; then you can have him as a real top 6 center at the start of 2022.

 

[Hins77]

Is he the next puljujarvi? Lol. I just see too many good young players already in the league at 19 years old. So when im watching kk i just lose confidence. I mean. Hes not bad. But is he a 3rd pick overall? Clearly not

 

[montreal]

Is he the next puljujarvi? Lol. I just see too many good young players already in the league at 19 years old. So when im watching kk i just lose confidence. I mean. Hes not bad. But is he a 3rd pick overall? Clearly not

this year despite how terrible Kotka was only 6 U-20 players have more points and all have a number of more games played.

Elite Prospects - NHL Stats 2019-2020

I don't think he's the next Puliujarvi as Kotka has a good amount of IQ, my concerns are more about his skating, which I don't think will hold him back but it's got to improve just as he must get stronger especially lower body to help with his balance so he doesn't fall as much.

Now I do question his offensive upside, I don't know if he can be a 70-80 pt player or better, or will he be a consistent 50-60 pt player, or will he struggle to get 40-50 pts consistently. I would be very surprised if he's worse then that say in 3-4 years.

 

[Big Empty]

Kotka with another two assists tonight. He’s up to 9 points in 8 games.

 

[domiwroze]

Kotka can't score anymore. Good thing we have Caufield for his RW.

 

[ahmedou]

OK = PPG

KK = PPP (Points Per Period)

 

[Andrei79]

this year despite how terrible Kotka was only 6 U-20 players have more points and all have a number of more games played.

Elite Prospects - NHL Stats 2019-2020

I don't think he's the next Puliujarvi as Kotka has a good amount of IQ, my concerns are more about his skating, which I don't think will hold him back but it's got to improve just as he must get stronger especially lower body to help with his balance so he doesn't fall as much.

Now I do question his offensive upside, I don't know if he can be a 70-80 pt player or better, or will he be a consistent 50-60 pt player, or will he struggle to get 40-50 pts consistently. I would be very surprised if he's worse then that say in 3-4 years.

He played very well after the first few shifts or so.

The skating is very slowly improving, but man he looks lanky out there. You can see he'd be dominant if he were more athletic.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I won't judge Kotkaniemi seriously until he's 23 years old.

Keep him in the AHL as long as possible.