Is Ovechkin a top 5 forward in the league?

[JasonRoseEh]

Easily no.

McDavid, Kucherov, Crosby, MacKinnon, Kane. Malkin knocking on the door.

There is zero case for Malkin ahead of Oveckhin going into this season, none.

 

[Nino33]

Wow, as the OP I didn't expect a 4x platinum thread with this. Huge debate going on here.

Seems more like the same old one-sided arguments without much if any debate (I think your lack of adequate criteria for the poll is what's causing this...everyone gets to decide their own criteria for "top 5 forward" and thus it's not a very insightful poll)

Matthews scores goals at a better rate than everyone else. He is the best goal-scorer. It's ridiculously simple.

A poll with clear criteria was just done on this issue (with Ovechkin taking 84% of the votes) Who is the best goal scorer in the NHL?

 

[Dekes For Days]

A poll with clear criteria was just done on this issue (with Ovechkin taking 84% of the votes) Who is the best goal scorer in the NHL?

Yeah, I know, the guy started it because he was having a fit in this thread.

Again, I don't care at all what an uninformed group in the poll forum thinks, especially when most don't support their opinion. I'll stick to logic and reason and context and valuable statistics instead of blindly following others.

 

[Dooble08]

I feel like Caps fans are a little insecure at the moment, not sure why. Ovechkin is a great player, easily a HOF player. But not top 5 currently. I'd pick McD, Kuch, Mack, Crosby, and Kane for my top 5.

 

[Nino33]

Again, I don't care at all what an uninformed group in the poll forum thinks, especially when most don't support their opinion.

You "don't care at all" so much that you've posted 51 times in this poll alone...and the best goalscorer poll shows most don't support your opinion

The " logic and reason and context" I see shows your statements I quoted directly above to be untrue

 

[bobholly39]

Yes. Which is why it's important to look at who does that the best, and not look at who is best at getting PP time.


Nope, it shows what he has actually done over a big sample.


Matthews scores goals at a better rate than everyone else. He is the best goal-scorer. It's ridiculously simple.


Actually, it's like giving one racer a 20m head start, and then claiming that racer is better than Usain Bolt because he crossed the finish line in 1st place.

You continue to overcomplicate things.

Who will score more goals this year? The answer most years ends up being Ovechkin and hence he is called the best goal scorer.

All you're really saying is "yes but - Matthews could score more". Maybe maybe not. There's a corrolation between ice time and production but its not at 1:1 ratio as you're implying. Also - if Ovechkin earns more ice time than Matthews - good for him and too bad for Matthews. Scoring more overall goals is still better than less overall goals.

Finally your response to the sprinter analogy is also flawed. Its more akin to the 2nd sprinter having a bad start and ending up 20m behind and losing despite racing fast after the start. And afterwards claiming "im the champ! I was the fastest after 20m!". And everyone else obviously responding with "No - the one who won is the champ - prove next race you can actually win, and then call yourself the champ "

 

[Kuz]

How about Elite PK, #1 Faceoff guy in the NHL and great defense vs unplugged controller?

You're gonna bring up a 10 year old clip to the discussion? How original... Weird how its always the same clip brought up. Like if a play from a clip that old is what you are able to judge a player on. You probably watch to little hockey and should keep away from discussions where people who actually watch hockey writes. Yeah he didn't bother to give his max effort on a play. It happens to everyone during a season. Search for Crosby controller disconnected and you find clips of him. Does it mean hes horrible defensively of course not. The canadian fans and media didnt like a russian player challenging they're golden boy so they tried to get the impression that Ovechkin is lazy, but if you have actually seen Ovechkin play no one brings more energy than him to the game especially in his prime he was everywhere.

Do you know how little impact faceoffs brings to the game? You also don't want to use your forwards on the PK. If you have a team that is well constructed you want to have other role players for that. To bad the Flyers with an elite PK guy still had the 26th best PK last year, 29th the year before and 21th, 20th and 26th before that.

He had a really good PK year in 18/19 tough, but it looks like some of it is just that some years some stats go more your way than others and the goalie makes that one or two extra saves while you are on the ice on the PK. He was on the ice for around of 36% of the time Philly where in PK, but they only let in 25,5% of the PK goals during that time. In 17/18 he only PKed 19% of the time and they let in 15% of the goals in 16/17 he didn't really PK(only 20 min) while in 15/16 he played 26% of the time and Philly let in 35% of the goals. Still he's a good PK guy, but 18/19 was an outlier and over a several year long sample size it looks more like he delivers what a lot of other could do and compared to teammates the opponent scores just a little less while he is on the ice, but not by much and probably so little that I would argue that using another player there and giving Giroux more time 5vs5 would be way more effective for Philly.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You "don't care at all" so much that you've posted 51 times in this poll alone...

I posted once, and then had multiple people demand I tell them who the best goal-scorer is, and then I've responded to multiple people, defending my position with evidence and explanation while they (mostly the usual anti-Leaf trolls) use baseless attacks and misrepresentation.

Not caring what the so-called "majority" thinks in a poll doesn't mean I'm not allowed to defend myself and my position.

and the best goalscorer poll shows most don't support your opinion

It shows a small subsection of users in this poll forum on this site chose to vote that way, which is meaningless.

The " logic and reason and context" I see shows your statements I quoted directly above to be untrue

This is false. Nothing I have said is untrue. Polls do not determine reality. That fallacious argument called argumentum ad populum has already been pointed out.

 

[Kuz]

Why aren’t you arguing a counter position specific to the argument in question?

Your argument, from what I can glean, is that you’re part of a majority and dumbfounded that you and your majority could be wrong.

I replied to your similar commment to me and was curious for your thoughts to my reply.

The last two years:
Ovechkin goals 18/19 - 51
Matthews goals 18/19 - 37

Ovechkin GPG 18/19 - 0,63
Matthews GPG 18/19 - 0,54

Ovechkin goals 17/18 - 49
Matthews goals 17/18 - 34

Ovechkin GPG 17/18 - 0,60
Matthews GPG 17/18 - 0,55

Even with his weak 16/17 Ovechkin has 133 goals to 111 and 0,54 to 052 GPG vs Matthews since entered the league. I just don't see Matthews case yet. He have been beaten in both ppg and goals the last two years. Ovi is the better goalscorer. Matthews might pass him this year and take over as the best goal scorer in the league, but he hasn't been a better goalscorer than Ovi the last 3 years and Ovechkin is the favourite before the seasons start.

 

[ITM]

My counter argument? That Ovechkin has scored way more goals than Matthews. It’s truly as simple as that.

If that’s your argument, then that should be an accurate description of the majority’s (that you’ve cited) argument, right?

But from what I’ve read in this thread, there are some on the opposite side of the member under scrutiny who aren’t arguing career goals in total - that’s kind of beside the point in this poll - but something different, as lists of top current players would indicate.

It’s a poll seeking present value, and at a stretch recent value, isn’t it? If it’s a top 5 forward of all time poll, again, that seems silly. Obviously it’s contextualized to balance against Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews, not Gretzky and Lemieux.

So, whatever majority you’re citing doesn’t seem present in your argument/reply (the other one other than the appeal to the people that is) to the member in question, or in response to me where you asked and answered your preferred question and your preferred answer for me.

This to say, in each instance (ie A career based argument in a present day value poll or , and especially ad populum) you and “You” have nothing to ridicule anyone about if having a reasonable, sound position commensurate with the specific topic is of any interest... to you and “You”.

 

[ITM]

The last two years:
Ovechkin goals 18/19 - 51
Matthews goals 18/19 - 37

Ovechkin GPG 18/19 - 0,63
Matthews GPG 18/19 - 0,54

Ovechkin goals 17/18 - 49
Matthews goals 17/18 - 34

Ovechkin GPG 17/18 - 0,60
Matthews GPG 17/18 - 0,55

Even with his weak 16/17 Ovechkin has 133 goals to 111 and 0,54 to 052 GPG vs Matthews since entered the league. I just don't see Matthews case yet. He have been beaten in both ppg and goals the last two years. Ovi is the better goalscorer. Matthews might pass him this year and take over as the best goal scorer in the league, but he hasn't been a better goalscorer than Ovi the last 3 years and Ovechkin is the favourite before the seasons start.

I asked the member for his argument. I have a position, but my interest is/was in the mob-like way the discussion was being maneuvered.

A Leafs fan, I have no dog in this fight. An HFBoards member sick of piling on people with nothing but ridicule and harassment...Tired of it on the outside and irked it creeps into here.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You continue to overcomplicate things.

Nope, it's pretty simple.

Who will score more goals this year? The answer most years ends up being Ovechkin and hence he is called the best goal scorer.

The answer most years was Ovechkin because he was the best goal-scorer. Now, we have a better goal-scorer, and despite not being able to fully show it in raw numbers due to circumstances out of his control over the last 2 years, he is the safer pick to put up more goals, especially as he enters his prime.

All you're really saying is "yes but - Matthews could score more".

No, I'm saying he has scored at a better rate.

if Ovechkin earns more ice time than Matthews

He didn't.

Finally your response to the sprinter analogy is also flawed. Its more akin to the 2nd sprinter having a bad start and ending up 20m behind and losing despite racing fast after the start.

Matthews did not start the race slow though. He is the fastest runner over that 100m. Period. The only thing putting Ovechkin ahead is that he got advantages that other racers did not get; essentially like starting further ahead.

In the sports world, having advantages that others do not is usually called cheating, because everybody in the sports world knows that comparing two people under different circumstances to determine "best" is the incorrect way to evaluate.

 

[Midnight Judges]

In the sports world, having advantages that others do not is usually called cheating, because everybody in the sports world knows that comparing two people under different circumstances to determine "best" is the incorrect way to evaluate.

Now Ovechkin is cheating.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Now Ovechkin is cheating.

No, that's not what I said. Please read the actual post next time.

 

[nbwingsfan]

If that’s your argument, then that should be an accurate description of the majority’s (that you’ve cited) argument, right?

But from what I’ve read in this thread, there are some on the opposite side of the member under scrutiny who aren’t arguing career goals in total - that’s kind of beside the point in this poll - but something different, as lists of top current players would indicate.

It’s a poll seeking present value, and at a stretch recent value, isn’t it? If it’s a top 5 forward of all time poll, again, that seems silly. Obviously it’s contextualized to balance against Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews, not Gretzky and Lemieux.

So, whatever majority you’re citing doesn’t seem present in your argument/reply (the other one other than the appeal to the people that is) to the member in question, or in response to me where you asked and answered your preferred question and your preferred answer for me.

This to say, in each instance (ie A career based argument in a present day value poll or , and especially ad populum) you and “You” have nothing to ridicule anyone about if having a reasonable, sound position commensurate with the specific topic is of any interest... to you and “You”.

Listen, I get you’re trying to use lawyer talk to try and sound smart, but this is a message board. Talk like a regular human would.

Yes that is a very accurate way to describe why we (aka everyone who isn’t a VERY small minority of Leaf fans) think Ovechkin is the better goal scorer.

Because use any time frame you want, and Ovechkin has scored more goals than Matthews has. That’s it.

 

[nbwingsfan]

While some are clearly less intelligent, it has more to do with being uninformed. Some people don't have the facts, and some people find it hard to accept those facts when it runs counter to flawed evaluation techniques that they grew up using. Especially with players that the NHL made sure kids grew up idolizing.

Or, we don’t put nearly as much stock into P/60 like you do. You also wouldn’t put nearly as much stock into it if it wasn’t the only stat that makes it look like Matthews is a top 5 player. You’ll stop using it the second it shows otherwise.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Or, we don’t put nearly as much stock into P/60 like you do. You also wouldn’t put nearly as much stock into it if it wasn’t the only stat that makes it look like Matthews is a top 5 player. You’ll stop using it the second it shows otherwise.

Adding context to stats has nothing to do with Matthews or any other player. Adding context to stats is just the proper way to evaluate.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Adding context to stats has nothing to do with Matthews or any other player. Adding context to stats is just the proper way to evaluate.

Problem is your context requires assumptions. Assumptions that may or may not end up true.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Problem is your context requires assumptions.

It does not. Projecting off of raw production requires a ton of assumptions.

 

[nbwingsfan]

It does not. Projecting off of raw production requires a ton of assumptions.

No it doesn’t

Ovechkin scored more goals than Matthews. What’s the assumption here? He helped his team put the puck in the net more often than Matthews did. Where’s the assumption there?

Matthews scores at a better rate than Ovechkin, sure. Now we have to ASSUME that Matthews would keep that same production rate if given more ice time. Which is not a fact.

If I’m not mistaken, did Tyler Ennis not score at a better ESP/60 than Matthews this past season?

 

[nbwingsfan]

No it doesn’t

Ovechkin scored more goals than Matthews. What’s the assumption here? He helped his team put the puck in the net more often than Matthews did. Where’s the assumption there?

Matthews scores at a better rate than Ovechkin, sure. Now we have to ASSUME that Matthews would keep that same production rate if given more ice time. Which is not a fact.

If I’m not mistaken, did Tyler Ennis not score at a better ESP/60 than Matthews this past season?

Or let’s put it another way:

Ovechkin scores 2 goals in 20min of ES ice time.

Matthews scores 1 goal on 7min of ES ice time.

Yes Matthews scored at a better rate, but who actually helped his team win more? The guy with more goals.

We can ASSUME that had Matthews got more ice time he would have helped his team more, but we don’t know that and it’s not a fact

 

[Dekes For Days]

What’s the assumption here?

Among other things, you are assuming that multiple circumstances for the players will remain constant, even though they are essentially guaranteed not to be.

If I’m not mistaken, did Tyler Ennis not score at a better ESP/60 than Matthews this past season?

No. Not even close.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Among other things, you are assuming that multiple circumstances for the players will remain constant, even though they are essentially guaranteed not to be.


No. Not even close.

I’m asking about what’s the assumption that LAST season Ovechkin scored more goals that Matthews?

Quant Hockey tells me that Ennis had a better esg/60 than Matthews IIRC

 

[bobholly39]

Nope, it's pretty simple.


The answer most years was Ovechkin because he was the best goal-scorer. Now, we have a better goal-scorer, and despite not being able to fully show it in raw numbers due to circumstances out of his control over the last 2 years, he is the safer pick to put up more goals, especially as he enters his prime.


No, I'm saying he has scored at a better rate.


He didn't.


Matthews did not start the race slow though. He is the fastest runner over that 100m. Period. The only thing putting Ovechkin ahead is that he got advantages that other racers did not get; essentially like starting further ahead.

In the sports world, having advantages that others do not is usually called cheating, because everybody in the sports world knows that comparing two people under different circumstances to determine "best" is the incorrect way to evaluate.

I'm confused - Ovechkin has more ice time than Matthews or doesn't? I thought your whole argument is resting on Matthews scoring more goals per 60, yet less overall goals. Are you now saying Matthews is the one with more ice time?

Scoring "rates" don't mean anything. It's actually scoring that counts. All scoring "rates" do for you is give you a sense of what the future might hold. But it's a hypothetical. a 75 point player who plays 15mins a game won't turn into a 100 point player if he plays 20mins a game. And a 100 point player who plays 20mins a game won't turn into a 75 point player if he starts playing 15mins a game.

The 75 point guy who goes from 15 to 20 mins will probably score more than 75 points, but still less than 100.
And the 100 point guy who goes from 20 to 15mins will probably score less than 100 points, but more than 75.

It's not a direct correlation.

Everyone here is saying - Ovechkin scores the most goals, which makes him the best goal-scorer.
All you're saying is Matthews scores more per minute, so you suspect if both players had the exact same ice time/circumstances, Matthew would score more. That's all it is though, a hypothetical/supposition.

As to the sprinter analogy - I agree, that's exactly what you're saying. You're saying Matthews is the fastest through 100m even though he never wins a race. "Yeah but it's because my starts suck, but just wait until i start better!" Sure - and when and if you do and you actually win a race, you'd be recognized as the better sprinter. Same thing here.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I’m asking about what’s the assumption that LAST season Ovechkin scored more goals that Matthews?

Ovechkin scored more goals than Matthews last season. I have never argued against this. This does not automatically make him the better goal-scorer. Context needs to be applied like it does in every situation.

Quant Hockey tells me that Ennis had a better esg/60 than Matthews IIRC

I'm looking at the numbers right now. You're wrong. It's not close.