Is Ovechkin a top 5 forward in the league?

[Dekes For Days]

If consistency wasn't an issue, then Matthews would have cracked 40 goals in the past two seasons.

Injury and lack of PP time =/= consistency.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Going into the season he is definitely the best goal-scorer in the league, but top 5 forward I think he falls just outside and into the 6-10 range somewhere.

 

[Teufelsdreck]

Going into the season he is definitely the best goal-scorer in the league, but top 5 forward I think he falls just outside and into the 6-10 range somewhere.

What is your expertise?

 

[Dekes For Days]

When you are talking about the elite offensive players in the league, /60 is meaningless. This has been discussed and disposed of to death on HF.

This is completely untrue.

NHL coaches aren't stupid, they play their player to get the most positive affect out of them.

1. Different coaches have different ideas about what has "the most positive effect". Coaches aren't all-knowing, as we should all know.
2. One was at the beginning of their career and the other wasn't.
3. A lot of it does not come down to coaching distribution, but opportunities and efficiency.

 

[mattydamon]

It's literally only Dekes for Days arguing that Matthews is a better goalscorer than Ovi - but no everyone is wrong except for you bud with your limitless understanding.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Injury and lack of PP time =/= consistency.

Durability is absolutely part of consistency.

If you aren't on the ice to contribute, then you aren't a consistent contributor.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Durability is absolutely part of consistency.

Not being injured is not a skill and it says nothing about the quality of a player. It is luck and is not projectable.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Not being injured is not a skill and it says nothing about the quality of a player. It is luck and is not projectable.

That's pure nonsense. Physical attributes are inextricable from the quality of every athlete. Durability is a virtue in every sport.

Nevermind that it's Matthew's's lack of awareness - something Gretzky had in abundance - that got him injured this last time.

 

[kp61c]

of course not

 

[Nsjohnson]

Oh the disrespect that #8 has to deal with.

Yes. The guy by default is top 5. I get the arguments and I can entertain them. But at the end of the day the goal totals are incredible and that puts him top 5.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Not being injured is not a skill and it says nothing about the quality of a player. It is luck and is not projectable.

Is that right?

Karlsson wouldn't pair well with Rielly, and I want nothing to do with Karlsson's contract. He's not the player he used to be, he can't stay healthy, and he relies heavily on his speed, yet he's paid 11.5m through his 30s.

Let’s see how you dig yourself out of this one.

 

[nbwingsfan]

They suggest it's very, very likely that he would, because he's the better goal-scorer.


It wouldn't have that big of an effect and those things tend to even out over a sample this big.


Which has to do with score effects and absolutely nothing to do with how minutes affect rates.


Matthews is ~10% ahead over the last 2 years, and ~33% ahead last year under similar conditions. And that's not even getting into him being ahead at ES, despite the linemate disadvantages. That is not insignificant.


His numbers are not propped up by last season at all. If anything, his numbers are suppressed by his 2nd season, where he got horrible 2nd unit deployment with bad players and got statistically unlucky on top of it. Last season was the only season where their PP conditions were somewhat similar and Matthews blew Ovechkin out of the water.

Matthews' numbers dropping that much or at all doesn't make any sense. It's not like they are out of line for the quality of goal-scorer he is. If anything, they are low for the quality of goal-scorer he is and will keep rising as he enters his prime.

You're just trying to find excuses to keep Ovechkin at the top because of your pre-determined beliefs, despite plenty of evidence to the contrary.

You have become a meme around these parts
You’re saying Matthews is a better goal scorer than arguably the greatest goal scorer or all time despite never winning a rocket and not even being close the last two seasons.

Keep clinging to P/60 like it actually means something. Maybe it’ll help Matthews get into the second round this time around.

 

[nbwingsfan]

They're not, but the biggest part of this that would effect production is linemates, and this works more against Matthews in the provided sample than for him.


But this isn't what's happening. It's largely because the team gets more PPs and of the PPs they do get, the whole first unit stays out longer.


There is really no evidence that it isn't outside of the effect of linemates.

And once again, his production rate would have to drop rather drastically, and then we're still at a point where Matthews is better at ES despite much worse circumstances.


We were talking about a 2 seasons sample.


Because it's impossible to do. You're claiming my numbers are wrong with no evidence, and then saying I need to provide impossible evidence or you'll continue sticking your head in the sand and denying the obvious. Seems pretty ridiculous to me.

Why is it that everyone is so called “denying” the evidence?

Have you ever thought that if 99% of this board disagrees with you, that maybe you aren’t as smart as you think you are and YOU are the one who’s wrong and in denial?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Ahahahahahahahahhhaahahahah

Karlsson had a major injury that affected his actual playing ability and main part of his effectiveness, and has played fewer and fewer games in each of the last 3 seasons and looked bad last year when he was playing at the age of 29. No, I don't want that player at a massive overpayment until he's 37.

This does not apply to Matthews, who is 22 and has had minor injuries that haven't affected him long-term.

It's still not Karlsson's fault that he factually hasn't been able to stay healthy, and I still don't go around calling him a 45-point defencemen like you do with Matthews, and I still don't project Karlsson out to 60 games or nonsense like that.

Please take your off-topic personal attacks elsewhere.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Lol, you're just making up your version of what the claim is to incorrectly put the burden on me.

Matthews had a higher G/60 on the PP. That is fact. That is what I posted.

In response to this, a claim was made by other people that Ovechkin stays out longer for every PP and this had a significant negative effect on his G/60 rates, despite most of this time being with the same 1st unit. They claimed that this is why Ovechkin's goal-scoring rate is lower than Matthews.

As you clearly showed, the burden of proof is on the person making the claim. As you clearly showed, the burden of proof is on others making this claim about Ovechkin, not me.

You know what else is a FACT? That Ovechkin has scored way more goals than Matthews.

Are you trying to say you’re smarter than 90% of HF Boards, professionals, analysts, etc?

Because one player is viewed as a top 3 goal scorer of all time. The other had 40 goals one time.

 

[Dekes For Days]

That's pure nonsense. Physical attributes are inextricable from the quality of every athlete.

Even if there was anything to "injury proneness", which there is no proof of, there is not a big enough sample to establish that with Matthews, and factoring it into projections is beyond ridiculous.

Nevermind that it's Matthew's's lack of awareness - something Gretzky had in abundance - that got him injured this last time.

This is completely untrue.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Karlsson had a major injury that affected his actual playing ability and main part of his effectiveness, and has played fewer and fewer games in each of the last 3 seasons and looked bad last year when he was playing at the age of 29. No, I don't want that player at a massive overpayment until he's 37.

This does not apply to Matthews, who is 22 and has had minor injuries that haven't affected him long-term.

It's still not Karlsson's fault that he factually hasn't been able to stay healthy, and I still don't go around calling him a 45-point defencemen like you do with Matthews, and I still don't project Karlsson out to 60 games or nonsense like that.

Please take your off-topic personal attacks elsewhere.

It’s not a personal attack. It’s pointing out how your argument is based on extremely faulty logic that even you clearly don’t actually believe.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It’s not a personal attack. It’s pointing out how your argument is based on extremely faulty logic that even you clearly don’t actually believe.

You're bringing off-topic, out of context posts into this thread, and before you back-tracked and edited it, posted an off-topic post laughing at me.

As I clearly explained, my logic is consistent and supported.

 

[ITM]

Why is it that everyone is so called “denying” the evidence?

Have you ever thought that if 99% of this board disagrees with you, that maybe you aren’t as smart as you think you are and YOU are the one who’s wrong and in denial?

Argumentum ad populum. Definitely not a philosophically safe space.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Even if there was anything to "injury proneness", which there is no proof of, there is not a big enough sample to establish that with Matthews, and factoring it into projections is beyond ridiculous.

How could two separate injuries amout to zero proof?

Auston Matthews has missed more games due to injury in 3 seasons than Ovechkin has in 14, and Ovie plays a far more physical game.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Argumentum ad populum. Definitely not a philosophically safe space.

So you think we’re all wrong and he’s right? Just curious who else has this opinion that Matthews has been the better goal scorer

 

[Dekes For Days]

How could two separate injuries amout to zero proof?

Two of something is not a trend, and it's definitely not proof of anything regarding the legitimacy of injury-proneness or what's expected for Matthews specifically.

 

[Midnight Judges]

This is completely untrue.

Are you in denial that Matthews clearly thought he had an open lane to the net but didn't? Or that he obviously didn't have the awareness to see the hit coming? Or that this particular type of shoulder to shoulder hit is actually fairly routine in the NHL?

 

[wetcoast]

Matthews has fewer than half as many goals in more than half as many minutes, so it's pretty obvious that Matthews isn't driving the powerplay in terms of goal scoring the way that Ovechkin has been doing for over a decade.

Funny that the poll is for the 19-20 season but let's look at the last 3 years.

Ovechkin does lead the nHL in goals over that time period but much of this is due to his 52 PP goals over those 3 years.

He is actually only 5th in ES goals and behind Mattews who has 86-80 over Ovi.

Total goals Ovechkin has 133, Matthews is 5th with 111 in 33 less games.

So even if Matthews was merely average on the PP and got the ice time on the PP that Ovi got he would have actually had more goals, that's something we can be 99% sure about.

Ovi wasn't even a top 5 forward last season and those days are done.

 

[wetcoast]

Laughable

Really what is your top 15 or even 5 forward group?

there are clearly 5 forwards who were better in the NHL last season.

Kucherov, McDavid, Crosby, Kane, MacKinnon, Barkov....that's 6

Ovechkin won the Richard and was the best goal scorer but he was 15th in points and doesn't have any defensive game to make up for the lack of points or more complete games other forwards had last season.