Is Ovechkin a top 5 forward in the league?

Going into 19-20 is Ovi a top 5 forward?


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nbwingsfan

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Dec 13, 2009
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The only thing being ignored here is critical context, by you. This has already been explained multiple times.
Okay, since you’re the one relying so heavily on esg/60, please explain to me the context as to why last season Matthews was behind all of Arvidsson, Tavares, Ennis, Ovechkin, Gallagher, Skinner, Johnson, Athanasiou, Debrincat, Guentzel, Atkinson, Kane and Bjorkstrand?

Instead of just saying “pfffttt context!!!” Why don’t you explain the context as to why these players scored at a better rate than him last season.

While you’re at it, please explain how some scored at a better rate, a better GPG and better overall goals than Matthews, but yet somehow still weren’t better goal scorers?

I’m excited to hear this, but don’t expect an actual answer.
 

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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Okay, since you’re the one relying so heavily on esg/60, please explain to me the context
Just like raw production, rate stats can be subject to swings over smaller sample sizes. Just like raw production, they are influenced by underlying metrics like SH% and OISH%. Just as I have said all along, context is important, including QOC and QOL. You are also ignoring the entire other half of production. Similarly, Ovechkin is not a worse goal-scorer than Gallagher, despite being behind him last year in ESG/60. Similarly, Ovechkin is not a worse goal-scorer than Skinner, who had a better goal total at a point last year. Similarly, Tom Wilson is not a better goal-scorer than Ovechkin, despite having the better goals per game at a point last year.

When we look at a more reasonable 2 year sample, Matthews is 2nd in the league behind Arvidsson (who is not good on the PP) in ES G/60. Ovechkin is 3rd.
When we look at a more reasonable 2 year sample, Matthews is 5th in the league in PP G/60 (despite being on the 2nd unit for half of that sample). Ovechkin is 10th (despite being on the 1st unit for his sample).

When evaluating quality of goal-scorer, we must look at how players produce at both ES and PP over a significant sample, and understand the context they do it in.
 

nbwingsfan

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Dec 13, 2009
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Just like raw production, rate stats can be subject to swings over smaller sample sizes. Just like raw production, they are influenced by underlying metrics like SH% and OISH%. Just as I have said all along, context is important, including QOC and QOL. You are also ignoring the entire other half of production. Similarly, Ovechkin is not a worse goal-scorer than Gallagher, despite being behind him last year in ESG/60. Similarly, Ovechkin is not a worse goal-scorer than Skinner, who had a better goal total at a point last year. Similarly, Tom Wilson is not a better goal-scorer than Ovechkin, despite having the better goals per game at a point last year.

When we look at a more reasonable 2 year sample, Matthews is 2nd in the league behind Arvidsson (who is not good on the PP) in ES G/60. Ovechkin is 3rd.
When we look at a more reasonable 2 year sample, Matthews is 5th in the league in PP G/60 (despite being on the 2nd unit for half of that sample). Ovechkin is 10th (despite being on the 1st unit for his sample).

When evaluating quality of goal-scorer, we must look at how players produce at both ES and PP over a significant sample, and understand the context they do it in.

Ahhh so one season isn’t good because it places Matthews way down the list, but two seasons is just great because Matthews ends up higher? Gotcha.

Your stats only matter when they suit your narrative. If done during a season where Matthews is low on the list, they need to be expanded, but if we move it back to a year he was good, they’re the only thing that matters. Posters like you exist all over HF and are genuinely not taken seriously.

You’ve entered that category (and really have been for a while).
 

Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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Ahhh so one season isn’t good because it places Matthews way down the list, but two seasons is just great because Matthews ends up higher? Gotcha.
No, a bigger sample is better because it minimizes the luck factor. You want a sample big enough that it's representative, while not going back so far that it's irrelevant. A 2-3 year sample seems to be best for this. It has nothing to do with Matthews or "my stats". Raw production stats face many of the same issues and requirements.

Even when we only look at one year, Matthews looks very good when we look at both ES and PP, and when we include context of their situations.
 

nbwingsfan

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Dec 13, 2009
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No, a bigger sample is better because it minimizes the luck factor. You want a sample big enough that it's representative, while not going back so far that it's irrelevant. A 2-3 year sample seems to be best for this. It has nothing to do with Matthews or "my stats". Raw production stats face many of the same issues and requirements.

Even when we only look at one year, Matthews looks very good when we look at both ES and PP, and when we include context of their situations.

Yes he looks very good. Does he look like the best goal scorer in hockey? No, he certainly does not.
 

gtrower

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Feb 10, 2016
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I'm curious if there's any evidence to back up this "Ovi has no defensive contribution" narrative that seems to be inserted every 10th/15th post in this thread. Ovi's commitment to a 2-way game was a big reason why the '18 Caps looked like a different team. I'd be interested to see if those making the claim had some good numbers to back it up. I think he developed that reputation as a young goal-scorer and it's sustained through the years despite obvious changes to his style to anybody that's actually watching the games. Maybe I'm just remembering the highlights, idk.

I don't think he's obviously a Top 5 forward in the league anymore. Top 10 for sure. But it would be near impossible to not have McDavid/Kuch ahead of him. And then it gets crowded with guys that have arguments for and against. I think you could slot him anywhere from 3-8 without insulting his status in the game right now. He's 34 and played like a wrecking ball his whole career. It's ridiculous that he's still playing at this level with his playing style.
 

JasonRoseEh

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Oct 23, 2018
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Lol at trying to twist yourself into a rope convincing people that Matthews has any case of being a better goal scorer when the answer is simple. Ovechkin has more goals than Matthews in every year, that's where the conversation ends. Ovechkin is the best goal scorer in the league, Matthews isn't even second until he proves otherwise and he has no business being listed ahead of Ovi in any forward listing.
 
Last edited:

Brucelenok

Registered User
Aug 9, 2016
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Yes, how the best goalscorer in the game cannot be Top 5 players, let alone Top 5 forwards?? Too much bias in here. I'd argue 34 years old Ovechkin is the most skilled out of them all excluding McDavid and Kucherov at the moment
 

Varan

Registered User
Nov 27, 2016
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Toronto, Ontario
It’s a simple yes or no answer.
Did Ennis have a better Esg/60 than Matthews last season? I’ll answer for you. Yes he did.

I like how you just completely ignore how Matthews wasn’t in the top 10 for esg/60, 7th in GPG and 17th in total goals :laugh:

But of course you would, because it goes against the hilariously bad take you have
no need to continue my friend, you have already won
 

Merrrlin

Grab the 9 iron, Barry!
Jul 2, 2019
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This is a really good thread, because it's so damn hard to pick.

I mean you have Kucherov and McDavid who are obviously top 5. Then Kane and Mack are likely shoe-ins. That means it's Ovi vs Crosby/Bergeron/Marchand/Point/Matthews/Tavares...etc.

I will say he isn't, even though there are very few players who can change the game at any point with a shot. He's so damn good at scoring goals, it's hard to have him on the outside, but all around I think I would take a couple guys over him.
 

mikeyfan

Registered User
Dec 27, 2018
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If I duplicated this my apology as I have not read every thread.

I took the top 5 in the following categories Goals, Assist, Pts, +/- GW SH per hockey Reference and ranked them 5-1 Highest to lowest and the results are as follows

1. Nitka Kucherov - 11 Points
1.Conner McDavid - 11 Points
3. Brad Marchand - 8 Points
4. Alexander Ovechkin - 6 Points
5. Patrick Kane - 5 Points
 
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Dekes For Days

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Sep 24, 2018
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basically what daver does
What the guy you're literally responding to has literally done in this thread. It's called quoting the relevant portion of a post that you're responding to, and people only have a problem with it when they get caught with no answer.

no need to continue my friend, you have already won
If by won, you mean having no answers and continuously posting irrelevant nonsense that is repeatedly disproven, I guess.
 

wetcoast

Registered User
Nov 20, 2018
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Absolutely zero case for Malkin over Ovechkin going into this year. Zero

Nothing is this absolute Malkin is still an elite player and it's still possible for Malkin to drive the play more than Ovechkin but can he stay healthy is the big question.
 

JasonRoseEh

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Oct 23, 2018
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Nothing is this absolute Malkin is still an elite player and it's still possible for Malkin to drive the play more than Ovechkin but can he stay healthy is the big question.
Again, my point is that coming into the 19/20 season there is zero case for Malkin above Ovechkin. He was abysmal last year and he knows it. Personally I picked him for a huge bounce back year and even to contend for the Hart, I believe that much in the guy but based on last season you can't have him in front of Ovi.
 

wetcoast

Registered User
Nov 20, 2018
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Again, my point is that coming into the 19/20 season there is zero case for Malkin above Ovechkin. He was abysmal last year and he knows it. Personally I picked him for a huge bounce back year and even to contend for the Hart, I believe that much in the guy but based on last season you can't have him in front of Ovi.

I think Oveckin will be better than Malkin this year my comment was on the zero part.

It's not like Malkin isn't capable of being the best player in the league for small periods of time.

Although that ship might have sailed time will tell.
 

wetcoast

Registered User
Nov 20, 2018
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Lol at trying to twist yourself into a rope convincing people that Matthews has any case of being a better goal scorer when the answer is simple. Ovechkin has more goals than Matthews in every year, that's where the conversation ends. Ovechkin is the best goal scorer in the league, Matthews isn't even second until he proves otherwise and he has no business being listed ahead of Ovi in any forward listing.


I'm thinking that Austin has this posted on his locker.

5 goals in his first 3 games this year.
 

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