Is Elias Lindholm Overrated; Was Vancouver's Chemistry Interrupted?

[BostonBob]

A lot of short-termism here, including these sour fans of 31 teams wishing the Nucks to fall.

Imagine that - fans of other NHL teams actually wanting Vancouver to fail. I'm sure that you ( as a Canuck fan ) wish for nothing but success for all the 31 other NHL teams.

EDIT: Frolov 6'3 beat me to it.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Sometimes shit doesn't make sense. The Rangers were 7-2-1 without Fox and when Fox came back their game took a nosedive. Although Fox wasn't 100% you would never expect that.

The Rangers would lose in 5 to 5 different West teams.

 

[McFlyingV]

Unfortunate hes not off to a good start, but i still believe in him becoming a 1st line caliber player. He was definitely just going thru the motions with the flames and its prob taking longer to get moving again. Good thing is guy is still an elite defensive player, still useful as he try to find hes offensive game

No he's not. Never was.

 

[Reality Czech]

It certainly could be the case, or perhaps Vancouver was just due a regression? Teams usually need to build their way up to top contender status, and it rarely happens over the course of one year. They've established themselves as a threat for for next few years at least, but few teams can run the table from the start of the season through the playoffs. Maybe the Canucks are fortunate that this regression is happening now and not in April/May.

 

[McFlyingV]

It's not a regression, their PDO since the all star break is well well below 100. Does everyone really think Pettersson stays in this slump? That the Canucks PP is going to stay at a 7% clip?

They've actually controlled play 5v5 better than prior to the all-star break.

Did you not just describe regression to the mean?

 

[The90]

Did you not just describe regression to the mean?

I for one always expect third and fourth liners to score at a 20% clip.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

It's interesting how this thread on Lindholm has some interesting discussion on the one hand, and on the other hand we have some of the lowest information, most emotionally driven, hot take vomiting posters from like 11 different teams spitting out the same meme about 'le epic PDO XD'.

Like I literally recognize several user names from other threads over the years where they have shown their whole ass. But the internet is a big place and the loudest people aren't often the most thoughtful, but they're often the most prominent.

On Lindholm:

There's a reason the Canucks acted a month before the trade deadline. It takes time to gel when you're adding a top 6 center to your team. He, theoretically, has his hand in every phase of the game. He's amazing on the draw so he takes a lot of D zone draws, he PKs, he plays on the PP. He plays when you're down by a goal, he plays when you're up by a goal etc etc.

If you've ever played hockey you know it's an instinct driven game, if you're thinking out there you're already behind the play. Well, learning a new system, with new teammates, in a new city, with new coaches, and a new apartment, and new routines, etc etc is going to put anyone into their head unless you happen to get lucky and start off on a tear that builds its own momentum.

So we're using that month. We have had a wonderful start, and we're using that to our advantage by working out some lineup kinks and struggling a bit when it doesn't especially matter.

We've also had a really challenging schedule in terms of lack of rest, lots of time on the road, very little practice time, etc. So he joined the team when we were slumping, but also during a scheduled slump.

Now, all of that said, he's looked competent and useful, but he hasn't played like a guy you want to deal a first and Brzustewicz for. But he has time to figure that out and so does the team.

It's hilarious that we have one bad 7 game stretch and the silliest among us can't wait to dunk on the PDO meme that even they had to back off of when we were sitting at like 35 games over .500.

As noted also, Soucy is key to our structure. He's incredibly stout and is just a stopper both on transition and on the cycle.

Joshua is a big loss too because that line with Blueger and Garland has been absolutely incredible all year. When other lines would struggle, they would keep plugging along which meant a lot because it meant we never gave up the momentum of 4 bad shifts in a row because that constellation literally never played in their own zone.

So without those two, we aren't immune to slumping - and we are.

Tocchet's a great coach, we have amazing stars at the top of our lineup, good depth, and an amazing goalie. We'll get it back.

With that said, this is the start of our window not the end. We're very unlikely to win the cup this year (much as I hope we will) and it will be a fairly successful year if we blowout the bottom seed in the first and lose a close one in the 2nd round. Teams need to lose before they learn how to win like 95% of the time.

So watch this with more of a longview and enjoy the ride Canucks' fans.

And fans of other teams who love hockey and enjoy watching hockey artistry, for the first time in quite awhile the Canucks are relevant to you for more than just unique brilliance by individuals here and there.

And for those who foam at the mouth to drop their cool PDO jokes, I don't have to worry about you because this post was likely far too long for your limited attention span.

 

[Rowlet]

Did you not just describe regression to the mean?

That's not how regression to the mean works, that would be trending towards a flat 100, not being equally PDO in the other direction

 

[Chairman Maouth]

It's interesting how this thread on Lindholm has some interesting discussion on the one hand, and on the other hand we have some of the lowest information, most emotionally driven, hot take vomiting posters from like 11 different teams spitting out the same meme about 'le epic PDO XD'.

Like I literally recognize several user names from other threads over the years where they have shown their whole ass. But the internet is a big place and the loudest people aren't often the most thoughtful, but they're often the most prominent.

On Lindholm:

There's a reason the Canucks acted a month before the trade deadline. It takes time to gel when you're adding a top 6 center to your team. He, theoretically, has his hand in every phase of the game. He's amazing on the draw so he takes a lot of D zone draws, he PKs, he plays on the PP. He plays when you're down by a goal, he plays when you're up by a goal etc etc.

If you've ever played hockey you know it's an instinct driven game, if you're thinking out there you're already behind the play. Well, learning a new system, with new teammates, in a new city, with new coaches, and a new apartment, and new routines, etc etc is going to put anyone into their head unless you happen to get lucky and start off on a tear that builds its own momentum.

So we're using that month. We have had a wonderful start, and we're using that to our advantage by working out some lineup kinks and struggling a bit when it doesn't especially matter.

We've also had a really challenging schedule in terms of lack of rest, lots of time on the road, very little practice time, etc. So he joined the team when we were slumping, but also during a scheduled slump.

Now, all of that said, he's looked competent and useful, but he hasn't played like a guy you want to deal a first and Brzustewicz for. But he has time to figure that out and so does the team.

It's hilarious that we have one bad 7 game stretch and the silliest among us can't wait to dunk on the PDO meme that even they had to back off of when we were sitting at like 35 games over .500.

As noted also, Soucy is key to our structure. He's incredibly stout and is just a stopper both on transition and on the cycle.

Joshua is a big loss too because that line with Blueger and Garland has been absolutely incredible all year. When other lines would struggle, they would keep plugging along which meant a lot because it meant we never gave up the momentum of 4 bad shifts in a row because that constellation literally never played in their own zone.

So without those two, we aren't immune to slumping - and we are.

Tocchet's a great coach, we have amazing stars at the top of our lineup, good depth, and an amazing goalie. We'll get it back.

With that said, this is the start of our window not the end. We're very unlikely to win the cup this year (much as I hope we will) and it will be a fairly successful year if we blowout the bottom seed in the first and lose a close one in the 2nd round. Teams need to lose before they learn how to win like 95% of the time.

So watch this with more of a longview and enjoy the ride Canucks' fans.

And fans of other teams who love hockey and enjoy watching hockey artistry, for the first time in quite awhile the Canucks are relevant to you for more than just unique brilliance by individuals here and there.

And for those who foam at the mouth to drop their cool PDO jokes, I don't have to worry about you because this post was likely far too long for your limited attention span.

Damn!

You hit for the cycle and topped it off with a grand slam.

 

[Volica]

I feel bad, because I really like Lindy.
This year he's just been so off, even when he was in Calgary. He was Calgary's third best centre most nights.

The fact Calgary got a first, a really high end prospect and some other stuff is pretty incredible everything considered.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

The Rangers would lose in 5 to 5 different West teams.

What does that have to do with my post? Or are you just a f***ing troll?

 

[Bank Shot]

Joshua is a big loss too because that line with Blueger and Garland has been absolutely incredible all year. When other lines would struggle, they would keep plugging along which meant a lot because it meant we never gave up the momentum of 4 bad shifts in a row because that constellation literally never played in their own zone.

So without those two, we aren't immune to slumping - and we are are.

Joshua is a prime example of a guy that has been playing way over his head this year.

He's turning 28 shortly and has never put up strong point totals at any level before this season.

He's had a Lance Bouma season where everything has gone in for him, and next year some fans will be wondering what happened to his scoring touch.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

That's not how regression to the mean works, that would be trending towards a flat 100, not being equally PDO in the other direction

That is exactly how regression to the mean works.

First 41 games at 110, next 41 at 90.

PDO of 100 achieved

 

[The90]

Joshua is a prime example of a guy that has been playing way over his head this year.

He's turning 28 shortly and has never put up strong point totals at any level before this season.

He's had a Lance Bouma season where everything has gone in for him, and next year some fans will be wondering what happened to his scoring touch.

Joshua, Hoglander and Joshua have a combined 43 goals. None of them have less than 11, and the lowest shooting percentage of the 3 is 18.3%.

For context to that, Auston Matthews career shooting percentage is 16.3%

The lowest of those 3, is shooting at 2 percentage points higher than the best goal scorer in the game.

If these guys can’t see that they’re still due for more of a regression, the next few weeks should be a fun show.

I do appreciate the snippy comments about PDO from Canucks fans, though. Everything was going in for you, boys. Time to find out what the Vancouver Canucks look like when everything isn’t going in. Should be fun.

 

[strattonius]

Hilarious that people are desperately taking shots at the Canucks for PDO and sh% regression in a thread that's supposed to be about Elias Lindholm.

 

[Bank Shot]

Joshua, Hoglander and Joshua have a combined 43 goals. None of them have less than 11, and the lowest shooting percentage of the 3 is 18.3%.

For context to that, Auston Matthews career shooting percentage is 16.3%

The lowest of those 3, is shooting at 2 percentage points higher than the best goal scorer in the game.

If these guys can’t see that they’re still due for more of a regression, the next few weeks should be a fun show.

I do appreciate the snippy comments about PDO from Canucks fans, though. Everything was going in for you, boys. Time to find out what the Vancouver Canucks look like when everything isn’t going in. Should be fun.

Matthews gets PP time to boost his shooting % as well.

Not sure why anyone would ever think 18-20% shooting from the third line is sustainable.

 

[Johnsie19]

Lindholm is just not a good player. I think the Selke votes weren't warranted and I think whoever pays him this summer will instantly regret it.

 

[RogerRoger]

Lindholm is just not a good player. I think the Selke votes weren't warranted and I think whoever pays him this summer will instantly regret it.

Lindholm is definitely at least good, but he's not great and he shouldn't be a 1C on a team that wants to go to the playoffs unless he's being hard carried.

 

[McFlyingV]

That's not how regression to the mean works, that would be trending towards a flat 100, not being equally PDO in the other direction

When you look at the entire season yes that is how regression to the mean works. You're looking at the sample size after the ASG, not the entire set of data. Regression to the mean when something is that far above the mean would indicate that there would need to be a stretch well below the mean for the total data to regress to the mean.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Lindholm is not the first and won't be the last player who gets traded around the TDL and struggles the rest of the regular season with his new team.

It's all about what he can accomplish in the playoffs that really matters, so we'll see.

But yeah, he's not a bonafide 1C.

His 78 point season the Flames were the 2nd highest scoring team in the league and had one of those years where multiple guys were putting up career high numbers.

His 82 point/40 goal season he played on the league's best regular season line and both of his wingers scored 100+ points (how often does that happen?).

Every other season in his career has been under 70 points/pace.

He's capable of doing most things well, but doesn't drive play and isn't a big time difference maker. So unless the environment helps him boost his numbers, 2nd line production is what you're going to get.

 

[Just Linda]

High end 2C.

His best seasons came with a great playmaker and Tkachuk.

He got overhyped quite a bit and was riding a wave of reputation but he's not a bad player, he's going to be fine.

Canucks need him at his best for the playoffs and there's time before then, he's well suited for the playoffs.

But again, people didn't want to hear that him and Monahan were able to play pretty similar roles on whatever teams got them, I think 12 and 14 games is enough to show that, yeah, Monahan was worth almost as much as Lindholm.

 

[34]

Hugely overrated. It was good laugh when this trade happened.

 

[Regal]

It's not a regression, their PDO since the all star break is well well below 100. Does everyone really think Pettersson stays in this slump? That the Canucks PP is going to stay at a 7% clip?

They've actually controlled play 5v5 better than prior to the all-star break.

People have been talking out their ass with the PDO stuff all year it’s no surprise there’s barely any nuance here. 10th in xGF% 5v5, 7th since the start of November and 4th since start of January. Like most Canucks fans were saying, as the PDO went down, score effects would improve the underlying numbers, which is exactly what happened. They’re clearly a good team going through a slump. But yea it’s totally just PDO regression and they suck. Idiots.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Overrated where? On here? Sure. In the media/among hockey guys? Maybe a little, but not really.

Lindholm benefited in Calgary from playing with elite or near elite talent, and having a guy like Backlund to help against top competition. That doesn't mean he's not a really good center, but it does mean that he was in a really good position to look his best.

He's also not going to look his best in Vancouver because he's not being put in the optimal position 5v5 and he's never been a huge PP weapon.

 

[Another Empty Netter]

Is he better than Kuz or no