Humble Pie Requirements for Brady Tkachuk's NHL Performance

[DueDiligence]

Seriously?

He, like the Sens, is riding an unsustainable shooting %.
Mats Sundin had more skill in his pinky than Tkachuk does in his entire body.

Of course he did.

 

[Senscore]

Seriously?

He, like the Sens, is riding an unsustainable shooting %.
Mats Sundin had more skill in his pinky than Tkachuk does in his entire body.

Good thing he's not shooting, he's swatting and smacking.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Jesus, remember McGratton beating down Domi, franchise changing moment.

Would be nice if BT lead the charge to us physically dominating the leafs, but I’ll be happy if we’re nasty to play against and have them circling our matchups on their calendars again.

 

[foggyvisor]

I'm eating crow.

Also, I think he's probably a 55pt winger who brings a lot more than those 55pts to the ice.

 

[Icelevel]

Actually didn't comment in this one, but did enjoy re-reading the draft thread. I think there were 5 posters who liked the drafting of Tkachuk. The question remains though.

I know I was one. Who were the others out of curiosity?

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Disagree. GDT's should exist for the analysis of the game. It's not an emotional outlet valve.

They should exist for posts about the game. Whether it's analysis or real time comments regardless if it's jubilation or dismay.

 

[swiftwin]

They should exist for posts about the game. Whether it's analysis or real time comments regardless if it's jubilation or dismay.

I agree. Yet people keep bringing up things that have nothing to do with the game. Such at trades that happened years ago, etc.

 

[DueDiligence]

If people want to be amused read the first 5-6 pages of this thread:
4th Overall the Senators Take Brady Tkachuk

Quite a few negative reactions; some are over the top!

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

If people want to be amused read the first 5-6 pages of this thread:
4th Overall the Senators Take Brady Tkachuk

Quite a few negative reactions; some are over the top!

I'm disappointed that it's not a clickable link

 

[swiftwin]

I know I was one. Who were the others out of curiosity?

*raises hand slowly since people like to attack me for being right*

A huge part of what makes Stone good is that he can win battles down low and uses his size effectively. Tkachuk is a faster, more skilled version of that. Nowadays, that's how goals are scored. Look at some of the best players in the league. McDavid is not noted for having a great shot. Crosby gets all his points from working hard down low and being impossible to get off the puck. Malkin is a physical beast. Even Ovi has had to adapt his game. Raw snipers are not as effective as they used to be. Now it's all about speed and net drive. It's why Dorion was so high on Duchene, and it's why he's high on Tkachuk.

Edit: To add to that, I find it a bit silly to use numbers in NCAA as some sort of proof of his abilities. We're always warned of players with really high point totals in other leagues who clearly do not have the type of skillset that translates well to the NHL. Tkachuk clearly has the type of skillset that will translate very well to the NHL.

Irrelevant. You're trying to compare the point totals of two different players in two different leagues in order to determine how many they'll get in a completely different league? ok.

My biggest thing with Tkachuk is the fact that he's the perfect "new NHL" player. The game has changed dramatically since 10-20 years ago. Pure shooters aren't a thing anymore. "Wheel snipe celly" pure skill perimeter players aren't a thing anymore. Premier stay-at-home defensemen who chip the puck off the boards aren't a thing anymore.

Now the game is all about pace, possession and net drive for forwards. What do you think makes Crosby so good? It's not just his stickhandling and shooting skills, it's also his tenacity down low. Nobody works harder than Crosby down low, which drives possession. Malkin? Same thing. McDavid? raw pace. He doesn't have an elite shot, but he makes up for it in raw pace and net drive. I could keep going down the list of top players in the league, and guarantee you that they do atleast 2 of those 3 thing better than most players in the league

Brady is the perfect player for that. He's a big fat green checkmark for all 3. The big thing that stood out to me this pre-season is his ability to drive the net, but also have the vision to make small passes in tight to open players around the net. He's going to be an absolute gem. I'm really really really figgin' high on him right now. I'm not even thinking about his character or "intangibles" right now. I'm just talking about his pure technical abilities as a hockey player.

Brady is going to be a top 15 scorer at some point in his career.

There I said it.

I haven't felt this strongly about a young player since I saw Karlsson's first pre-season with us back in 2009. I have to be honest, I was a little bit skeptical coming into pre-season, but he's blown me away. His vision is much much better than I thought it would be. He's the real deal. This whole "intangibles" and character stuff is just the cherry on top.

Spot on. People here seem to have a diffent interpretations of what 'skill' means.

I'd say that Brady has a very unique skillset. Not just because of his "character", but because of his technical abilities on the ice. His ability to drive the net and make plays happen down low and in tight around the net are outstanding. This is absolutely a 'skill'. yet some people around here will try to say this is character/intangibles in a derogatory way. Now is character/intangibles a driving factor behind this unique skillset? Absolutely. But some people seem to struggle wraping their head around this. It's not a simple skill vs character black and white comparison.​

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[Upgrayedd]

Predicted he'd be good but not this good...like with Chabot considering our owners refusal to invest I'm already thinking whether the team can afford him down the line, hopefully they move them at max value and not at minimum value to string along another lie management has told like recently with EK and Hoff.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Predicted he'd be good but not this good...like with Chabot considering our owners refusal to invest I'm already thinking whether the team can afford him down the line, hopefully they move them at max value and not at minimum value to string along another lie management has told like recently with EK and Hoff.

We can afford both Chabot and Tkachuk. It's just a question of whether our inability to spend will limit us to signing them to shorter term deals that will result in them either leaving through UFA (or a trade prompted by UFA status) earlier, or having to be signed to even bigger less competitively advantageous contracts a few years down the line when we can actually spend if the team is sold.

Both could likely be signed 3-5 years in the 4-6 million range, which is what we'd do if we were hard up for cash and had already allocated all of our funds to other players. If we go 7-8 years, we're talking about 7-10 million depending on how their performance and the top end of the cap pans out.

Matthew Tkachuk's contract negotiations might provide a good insight into what to expect with Brady a few years from now if they have the same people advising and representing them. Matthew chose to play out the year and bet on himself rather than sign as early as possible, and it's paying off for him as he has now raised his value by a tremendous amount by having his best season at the right time. Players who tend to bet on themselves rather than signing as early as possible are usually interested in maximizing their value, which there is nothing wrong with, but it's bad for teams that want to save cap and/or salary,.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I think the fear of not signing guys is unfounded.

We didn't want Turris at his term, I agree with the assessment
We didn't want Zib at his price or term, I agree with the assessment

I'm glad we don't have have either contracts on the books, and I know some folks agree.

EK is the only guy that we didn't sign that may have been money related, though he's in a class on his own seeing as how he didn't want to sign here, and he was reported to have been offered around 88 million over 8 years.

Not exactly chump change.

We have a budget, no doubt, but we have shown to have money to sign our top players when we want to. Of course a few thousand fewer paying fans a game will likely shrink the budget even more, so in the end we'll get what we pay for.

 

[topshelf15]

I dont really try to pretend ,I know anything about what makes a good young prospect turn out into a star...But I would guess it would likely have to do with have much drive that player has to succeed...That and reading SOA,s updates

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Now that Tkachuk's first season is in the books, is it fair to say that the early critics are relatively happy with the pick?

I am not bumping this thread to mock or insult anyone. Various posters had their doubts and reservations about Tkachuk both prior to and after we drafted him. They had their reasons and made their assessments and opinions based on what they knew at the time. They didn't know what we know now, so their opinion could be drastically different after seeing Tkachuk's first season in the NHL.

I am genuinely interested in hearing the updated opinions of any early critics/pessimists. If you want to share your opinions I will read them. If you would like, you can even explain the concerns you had and what about Tkachuk's performance changed your concerns and warmed you up to him as a player.

Obviously it is disappointing that we don't have our 2019 1st, but aside from that are we all happy we drafted Tkachuk?

 

[dumbdick]

Higher PPG than Zadina after two full NHL seasons. Have better production than his brother in same time frame. I'd happily eat crow then, just don't see it.

2016-17	Calgary Flames	NHL	76	13	35	48	105	14	4	0	0	0	4
2017-18	Calgary Flames	NHL	68	24	25	49	61	-1	--	--	--	--

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So for year 1, he put up the same points as his brother with 9 additional goals, playing on the worst team in the league.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

keep the point gap between him and Zadina to under 10.

Well, no need to eat crow... he didn't even keep the gap between him and Zadina to under 40

Not quoting this to make fun... just amazing how much Brady has exceeded expectations (and Zadina has failed to meet them despite being touted by many as a guy who would instantly score 20+ goals... like Brady did)

I was a fan of the pick and he's better than I ever expected. He has been the 2nd best player from his draft so far and I have a feeling that he will rarely falter too far from there

 

[dumbdick]

I'm cautiously excited. I still see his bang and crash style as having a slightly higher bust potential than the elite skill players, but the skill is clearly there too and seems to be still improving. I think his floor is a decent 2nd line player or elite 3rd liner. If he hits his trajectory of a first line player, then he's the kind of player whose built to win the Conn Smythe trophy.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

So for year 1, he put up the same points as his brother with 9 additional goals, playing on the worst team in the league.

I just want to point something out as I've read this on these boards a lot. Brady playing on the worst team in the league probably helped his point totals as he was given more ice time and top 6 minutes immediately.

 

[dumbdick]

I just want to point something out as I've read this on these boards a lot. Brady playing on the worst team in the league probably helped his point totals as he was given more ice time and top 6 minutes immediately.

That's kind of a lazy argument when the stats are out there to assess this directly. Here's what the numbers say:

It doesn't hold that well for this particular comparison.
- They were both 8th in TOI/GP on their teams.
- Brady got 1:20 more ice time per game than Matt in their year one season (about 9-10% more time), and 13 seconds more power play time per game (both about 2 mins per game).
- Pretty much all the difference for the even strength TOI was driven by Brady's added minutes in the last 20 games of the season post house cleaning, where he played a lot with Brian Gibbons (19pts) in place of Mark Stone (73pts).
- Matt played mostly on Calgary's 2nd line with Frolik(44 pts) and Backlund(53 pts) that year.
- Brady obviously had better support playing with Stone for a good part of the year (73 pts) and White (41pts). But statistically his most productive period for points and goals was in the last 20 games of the season when he was playing with Gibbons.

So very slight edge to Brady in terms of opportunity, but edge to Matt in that he played on a better team.

Their points are nearly identical. But put it all together, and I'll take Brady's extra 9 goals and declare him to be the hands down winner of the comparison. But let's see what next season brings.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

That's kind of a lazy argument when the stats are out there to assess this directly. Here's what the numbers say:

It doesn't hold that well for this particular comparison.
- They were both 8th in TOI/GP on their teams.
- Brady got 1:20 more ice time per game than Matt in their year one season (about 9-10% more time), and 13 seconds more power play time per game (both about 2 mins per game).
- Pretty much all the difference for the even strength TOI was driven by Brady's added minutes in the last 20 games of the season post house cleaning, where he played a lot with Brian Gibbons (19pts) in place of Mark Stone (73pts).
- Matt played mostly on Calgary's 2nd line with Frolik(44 pts) and Backlund(53 pts) that year.
- Brady obviously had better support playing with Stone for a good part of the year (73 pts) and White (41pts). But statistically his most productive period for points and goals was in the last 20 games of the season when he was playing with Gibbons.

So very slight edge to Brady in terms of opportunity, but edge to Matt in that he played on a better team.

Put it all together, and I'll take Brady's extra 9 goals and declare him to be the hands down winner of the comparison. But let's see what next season brings.

Those are all good points that you bring up showing Matt and Brady being in comparable situations.
My comment wasn't meant to be direct at you or the point you were making. It was more that I've read on these boards a quite a few times that Brady was able to have the good rookie season that he did despite being on such a bad team. I think playing on a bad team helped Brady, especially down the stretch. He got a chance to play on the point/half wall position where he looked really good and it looked like it helped his confidence. He probably wouldnt have gotten that chance on a better or more established team.

 

[Mr Hat]

So for year 1, he put up the same points as his brother with 9 additional goals, playing on the worst team in the league.

A good year for Brady. He played well solo but "worst team in the league" is irrelevant when you play with Mark Stone 2/3 of the season. He was given opportunity to succeed and did absolutely that. Still too early to say he is the better prospect than Zadina, that's why I asked to eat humble pie after two full seasons.

 

[DJB]

Be a better player than Zadina, Hughes, Boqvist, Dobson, Hayton and Wahlstrom.

Mission accomplished.

 

[Sen sational]

Now that Tkachuk's first season is in the books, is it fair to say that the early critics are relatively happy with the pick?

I am not bumping this thread to mock or insult anyone. Various posters had their doubts and reservations about Tkachuk both prior to and after we drafted him. They had their reasons and made their assessments and opinions based on what they knew at the time. They didn't know what we know now, so their opinion could be drastically different after seeing Tkachuk's first season in the NHL.

I am genuinely interested in hearing the updated opinions of any early critics/pessimists. If you want to share your opinions I will read them. If you would like, you can even explain the concerns you had and what about Tkachuk's performance changed your concerns and warmed you up to him as a player.

Obviously it is disappointing that we don't have our 2019 1st, but aside from that are we all happy we drafted Tkachuk?

I wanted Zadina at the draft because Ottawa has struggled to score goals and I identified Zadina as having an elite shot and was a go to goal scorer. Zadina could still become this.

What I didn’t recognize is that Tkachuk could also become a very good scorer, but in a different way. He takes rebounds from team mates shots and turns them into goals, he provides screens which improve his team mates chances of scoring. Although Zadina may be a better pure scorer, Tkachuk makes his whole line better.

On top of that, Tkachuk leads by example, he gets his nose dirty, is hard to play against, and at 19 has already shown that he has the confidence and ability to put the team on his back to try to get the win (12 shot game).

 

[Sweatred]

Brady had a great year. His end of season goals, skating, and puck possession exceeded what most people would have predicted in an ideal outcome. The only knock I can think of regarding his year is he is essentially a young D+2 player with his birthdate. He could be considered a 19 year old playing against other 18 year olds in their first D+1 year.